ROI

[wegoosewe]

After looking at my past bets. I found a few spots were i am much weaker and some the are really strong..

Like the pick 3 and Daily Double are great for me... Bad spots are the exacta and tri. So i have decieded to get rid of those bets.. I did... i would have and extra 320 dollars in my account.(over 88 bets)

Here are my results for the Pick 3 and DD..

Since i have eliminated the exacta and tri.. I could take the money i have been spending on those. I could play the pick 4... Is there a resonable win percentage. i find my self doing better horizontally. kinda just curious on how every one else does...

[ranchwest]

You average bet is under $5.

IMHO, that's far too little for a P4. You might want to try playing P4's on paper. I know I've learned a lot about that wager from playing in the Aqueduct Inner Dirt contest here at PA. It takes most folks some wide bets to hit a P4. In the contest, we got $200 per P4, one P4 per day, usually two P4's per week for the 4 or so months of the ID season. That's what? 36 or so bets? Most people were doing good to hit 5 to 8 P4's, even with $200 tickets. Very few make a profit. There are a lot of people every time that hit 3 of 4. It's a bet where most people need to hit huge payoffs. I suspect this bet may not be for you right now. I'd tread lightly into these deep waters.

[wegoosewe]

yeah. i mean obviously i would increase the bet size but i hit enough of the pick 3's with very small cost and desecent size returns.

[ranchwest]

The matrix of race types is more diverse as you increase the number of races in the horizontal wager.

In other words, whereas the P3 might offer two turf races and an allowance and those may be right up your alley, the P4 might throw in a low level claimer or a maiden race or some other race type where you're not as good.

It's a tricky bet. Again, my suggestion is you try it on paper first.

[rrbauer]

If it works, don't fix it! Increase the amount of money you're playing P3's and DD's with and build your bankroll from your positive ROI experiences.

RW gives you excellent counsel on P4's......

[wegoosewe]

The matrix of race types is more diverse as you increase the number of races in the horizontal wager.

In other words, whereas the P3 might offer two turf races and an allowance and those may be right up your alley, the P4 might throw in a low level claimer or a maiden race or some other race type where you're not as good.

It's a tricky bet. Again, my suggestion is you try it on paper first.

Yeah i have been doing it on paper.. not really keeping track but i will do it for a month and see what the results are.. I just figured that since i am pretty good with pick 3's it might be a spot were gain better value.

I really only play there isnt a turf race. I am trying to learn how to handicap those races better.

[vacationofwealth]

Multi race legs that have lower track takeouts are for sure the way to go. They usually pay more that the parlay for win etc. Some of the tri takeouts around the country really make playing tris sure losing propositions.

Will Ellis Park still have a 4% pick 4 take out this year?

[wegoosewe]

If it works, don't fix it! Increase the amount of money you're playing P3's and DD's with and build your bankroll from your positive ROI experiences.

RW gives you excellent counsel on P4's......

I do love playing the DD and P'3 very cheap for me to play as i go to school full time so i am on a budget.. So i do the handicapping at night and during class...

[ranchwest]

I do love playing the DD and P'3 very cheap for me to play as i go to school full time so i am on a budget.. So i do the handicapping at night and during class...

The P4 can be a good bet, but I just want you to think about the diverse races and the exponential increase in entrants. You'll likely need a larger wager and I don't know how many $50 losses a $5 bettor can stomach. I think RBauer is right, increase the wagers on what has worked for you. When you get into a better bankroll situation, then try the P4.

[wegoosewe]

The P4 can be a good bet, but I just want you to think about the diverse races and the exponential increase in entrants. You'll likely need a larger wager and I don't know how many $50 losses a $5 bettor can stomach. I think RBauer is right, increase the wagers on what has worked for you. When you get into a better bankroll situation, then try the P4.

I completly agree with that statement. I actully thought about it today about playing 20$ DD.. beacause if i can get a double that pays 10 dollars for 2 that equals 100 for 20 so. that way i can get a bigger bank roll.

[Valupix]

Being constructive, (I hope)

55 bets is a small sample (very small), especially when analyzing multiples. I wouldn't make any major decisions based on such a small sample. It would take many hundred wagers to be able to see a clear trend.

[wegoosewe]

yes its small but a trend has to start some where. and looking at my exacta and tri attempts that shows that it is not my strongest suit. i have much more confidence when playing the double and p'3

[Valupix]

There is as much to having data that suggest something to be consistent as there is to having enough data to instill one's own trust in what the data suggest.

Any data that you don't have a deep trust and immense respect for, will ultimately mean nothing. That is the point behind my point. Generally speaking, for most people it takes bunches and bunches of consistent long term data to engrain such trust and respect .

So many people go with the flow and continually change direction over and over again. Usually because of what has happened to them over the very recent, short term past. I'm not saying you're doing that. I am only saying be careful not to fall into such a trap.

Again, it meant to be constructive and not critical.

[ranchwest]

yes its small but a trend has to start some where. and looking at my exacta and tri attempts that shows that it is not my strongest suit. i have much more confidence when playing the double and p'3

As the previous poster said, your sample size is small, but as you point out it is encouraging. You've been doing something right, very right.

The "standard" reason handicappers are better at horizontal bets than vertical is that their contender list is a list of win contenders. There's different criteria for vertical contenders.

So, it probably isn't just coincidence that you're better at horizontals than verticals. There's probably an actual reason behind it.

[point given]

you should break out the DD and p3 bets and then the tracks that you are playing. p3s are more plentiful than p4 and you can pick yhe sequence, p4 is picked for you and the tracks want big payooffs and make them harder, stick w the p3. i am best in p3 and tri, with poor in p4 and exacta, although you remember the p4 score alot longer but much lOwer % HITS

[raybo]

As the previous poster said, your sample size is small, but as you point out it is encouraging. You've been doing something right, very right.

The "standard" reason handicappers are better at horizontal bets than vertical is that their contender list is a list of win contenders. There's different criteria for vertical contenders.

So, it probably isn't just coincidence that you're better at horizontals than verticals. There's probably an actual reason behind it.

I totally agree, as I wager on only superfectas. Contenders are only part of the equation, much more is involved in finding the 2nd, 3rd and 4th row horses.

[wegoosewe]

i think the p's 3 are great. I like some of my biggest scores are the tickets that cost 2-4$.. Like the double i played last week cost me 2$ and it payed 60. I am risking very little for a decsent return... That one 60 dollar winner allows me to play the DD for either-30 more times for 2 or 15 more for 4.. but on average 2 to win 20 i will take that any day...

one of the key things i have learned is that if i cant single a horse in any legs of the pick 3 its very hard for me to play in. I like after looking at the cost of the picks 4's on paper tonight at hollywood i just dont have the bank to play those..