Morning Line Stats Wanted

[vacationofwealth]

I wanted to know if anyone could tell me or give me rough numbers on a couple things.

Number one can you give me the percentage that the post time favorite comes in first place exactly, second place exactly, and third place exactly. Is the breakdown something like 35%-17%-8%?

Secondly can you give me the percentage that the morning line favorite comes in first, second, and third exactly.

Does the morning live favorite hit a higher percentage than the betting favorite. Who is sharper the morning line oddsmaker or the public bettors?

Is there a website that divulges this information and other information such as percentage the favorite wins at say Louisiana Downs vs Golden Gate ( obviously I think the favorite wins a lot less at less predictable tracks like that)

Im trying to utilize a system where at chaotic tracks where the public is less sharp you can catch some nice probables. Thanks. Great board by the way.

[BMeadow]

We ran several surveys in Meadow's Racing Monthly regarding these questions. The surveys were compiled by Jim Cramer of Handicapper's Data Warehouse.

A survey of 200,000 post-time favorites that appeared in the April 2003 issue showed the public favorite winning 33.6% with an ROI of 0.82. A previous survey of a different 200,000 post-time favorites showed 32.8% wins, 20.4% place, and 14.0% show with an ROI of 0.81.

We also did a morning-line survey of 46 tracks with at least 2,000 morning line favorites. At every single track, post-time favorites won more often than morning-line favorites. Overall, morning-line favorites won a bit less than 30% with an ROI of 0.81.

I have never seen any way to use the morning line to win; it is simply one employee's prediction of how the public will bet. Horses who go off at post time at 2-1 win approximately 28% no matter whether they are 4-5 in the morning line or 15-1.

[Bruddah]

from a most reputable source. Thanks BM from a fan. :ThmbUp:

[OTM Al]

I follow east coast tracks and do track morning lines. Since Jan 1, 2006, I have 35091 races in my db. Of those, 10331 were won by morning line favorites, or 29.4%. This had an ROI of .74 for $2 win bet on each race ML fav. Post time favorites, as should be expected, did better. 12568 won for a 35.8% hit rate with an ROI of .84

[andicap]

Barry (or anyone, especially Dave who I know has a huge DB)

Is it possible to figure out how often favorites finish 2nd and 3rd IF you assume another horse will win the race? I'm trying to figure out how those place and show favorite percentages change if my longshot wins.

If I know how often my longshots will win and about what exotics will pay with favorites in the money (considering field size, who else finishes in the money, type of race, etc.) I can figure out when it pays to use a favorite in the 2nd-3rd spots with my horse on top.

I'm trying to make the same calcuations for assuming my longshot will finish 2nd and/or 3rd. How does that change the probabilities for where the favorite will finish?






We ran several surveys in Meadow's Racing Monthly regarding these questions. The surveys were compiled by Jim Cramer of Handicapper's Data Warehouse.

A survey of 200,000 post-time favorites that appeared in the April 2003 issue showed the public favorite winning 33.6% with an ROI of 0.82. A previous survey of a different 200,000 post-time favorites showed 32.8% wins, 20.4% place, and 14.0% show with an ROI of 0.81.

We also did a morning-line survey of 46 tracks with at least 2,000 morning line favorites. At every single track, post-time favorites won more often than morning-line favorites. Overall, morning-line favorites won a bit less than 30% with an ROI of 0.81.

I have never seen any way to use the morning line to win; it is simply one employee's prediction of how the public will bet. Horses who go off at post time at 2-1 win approximately 28% no matter whether they are 4-5 in the morning line or 15-1.

[Dave Schwartz]

Andy,

You already have those numbers from Barry.


Dave

[vacationofwealth]

Great information, I guess the public which is made up of many different groups whether it be sharps or recreational has a better grasp on the race then just one person even though he is usually an expert at his specific track. I am suprised though that the favorite was shown to at least show 67% of the time. I would assume this varies from track to track and on field size but it sounds like the information I was looking for.

[njcurveball]

Great information, I guess the public which is made up of many different groups whether it be sharps or recreational has a better grasp on the race then just one person even though he is usually an expert at his specific track.

The public is NOT better than an expert at a specific track. The Morning Line Odds Maker MUST put some numeric value on EVERY horse, EVERY day. He must do it 2 days ahead of time, minimum. Sometimes 3,4, or even 5 days ahead of time with the age of on-line past performances.

If a horse were to work amazingly well the day or two before the race, the morning line maker has no way to know that. Same with hot/cold trainer jocks, track bias, raceday weather, jockey changes, late information (scratches, blinkers, recently gelded, first time lasix, etc.)

It isn't an apples to apples comparison even if he had that info, since the crowd has up to post time to bet.

At some tracks (not all) I would take the ML choices to win more races than the post time favorite if the track handicapper were to get a level playing field with the crowd.

I would bet most of the seasoned handicappers here would outperform the crowd at a specific track if allowed to put their choices in at post time.

The Morning Line is just an estimation factor, much like weight carried. It is good to try to judge value before the race, but not a perfect barometer to see if a horse is underbet or overbet.

The dumbest thing I see is when a good handicapper starts crying they are "betting his horse". As if the things he saw in the program were somehow invisible to everyone else since the morning line was 10-1.

If racing were as easy as betting when the odds are above or below the morning line, we would just need a toteboard and some scratch paper to make money. :ThmbUp:

Jim

[mrharness]

I would bet most of the seasoned handicappers here would outperform the crowd at a specific track if allowed to put their choices in at post time.

You mean a seasoned handicapper betting every race? Otherwise it wouldn't be a fair comparison.

Off topic a little...what win% do seasoned handicappers here get? Because they seem to bet longer odds, the overall win% is much lower than 33.6% isn't it?

[njcurveball]

You mean a seasoned handicapper betting every race? Otherwise it wouldn't be a fair comparison.



The public does not bet every race, so I guess to make it a fair comparison you need about 1,000 seasoned handicappers deciding which horse was the most likely winner (which is how the public bets). All of them would not bet every race (just like the public) but collectively they would make their choice.

On Belmont the "public" could not bet enough on Big Brown at 2-5. A seasoned handicapper would also have made him the "most likely winner". However, it is doubtful any seasoned handicapper put money down on him to win.