Question on Pace

[mrroyboy]

Hi Guys
I've noticed that at Meadowlands the faster a horse goes to the 3/4 the slower his final quarter will be and vice-versa. Which makes sense.
My question is How to use this information for handicapping purposes. What I am trying now is to look for the top 2 or 3 in both categories. Add some other factors and maybe this horse has an edge.

I don't know if this is the best way so I would like to hear your opinions.

Thanks

[Ray2000]

mrroyboy

You could add the final and 4thQ times.. say 1:57 with a 27.3 giving 144.3 secs and that might somewhat negate the pace, but I adhere to old Stanley's Law (A book by Al Stanley and Sam Dragich) that calls are more important than times. Look for calls at the half no worse than 1 2 or 3, or parked wide if from an outside post. Then compare half pole calls to finish and horse must not lose call position, improved position is great. (Some allowance for the parked horse.)
Good luck with your 'capping

[mrroyboy]

Thanks Ray for your input. Does anyone else have an opinion on this? Would like to hear from all.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

MrRoyBoy:

Each race is unique. Guess what I am referring to is trip handicapping.
The times of the individual quarters are important only so much.
Each horse has only enough energy and stamina to use and many times, it gets used up during the race. What I found more useful was to calculate the last half times of the horse's past performance lines.

I still use the old key, one length = one fifth of a second. Look to see where the horse was at the half and calculate each entry's last three races to see whom is coming home both the most consistent and fastest.

This will lead you to finding the contenders from the pretenders. Once you have narrowed the field down to about 3 or 4 horses, you can use whatever criteria to evalute them. I might of learned this from Stanley's law but that so many years ago (70's) that it might of been elsewhere.

Logic here is that to maintain a high rate of speed over one half mile is more of an indication of a horse's ability to win than just a single quarter. This may lead into another thread but I am of the opinion that any horse can leave the gate though he may not win.

I hate it when some TV guy or track announcer says this horse is void of early speed but can come home like a freight train. My question to them is that if a horse can come home in 28 seconds why can he do that after traversing 3/4 of mile but he can not leave in 28 seconds when he is fresh?

Sorry to go off topic but pace is just part of the equation. I suggest you experiment with these pace figures and see what works for you. No one has a monopoly on picking winners so enjoy your selections when they cross the wire on top!

[mrroyboy]

Very good stuff. Thanks guys

[harcapper]

Each race is unique. Guess what I am referring to is trip handicapping. The times of the individual quarters are important only so much. Each horse has only enough energy and stamina to use and many times, it gets used up during the race. What I found more useful was to calculate the last half times of the horse's past performance lines.

Logic here is that to maintain a high rate of speed over one half mile is more of an indication of a horse's ability to win than just a single quarter. This may lead into another thread but I am of the opinion that any horse can leave the gate though he may not win.

I hate it when some TV guy or track announcer says this horse is void of early speed but can come home like a freight train. My question to them is that if a horse can come home in 28 seconds why can he do that after traversing 3/4 of mile but he can not leave in 28 seconds when he is fresh?


Roy,

RaceTrackDaddy gave you some really good info in his post.

In the event I have not reviewed tapes or trip notes, I will normally use a horses last 3/4 time and factor in any work the horse did going to the 1/4. Using last 1/4's alone will not give you the needed results.

If a horse has done no work to the 3/4's and is just following along, a fast last 1/4 on a fast mile time can be very deceiving. This more times then not will be the source of a false or weak favorite in a race.

If you have handicapped any length of time, think of this very situation. You have a morning line chalk who is taking a big class drop. When you look at it's times the horse appears to be a couple seconds faster and is coming home as fast or faster then the rest of the field it is in against. On paper this horse looks real good but if the horse never shows taking any air or leaving the gate, I am almost always going to try and beat this type of favorite.

Har

[toetoe]

My amateur method is SORTA like harcapper's. I figure the first half, middle half and second half. That's kinda like figuring the 3/4 times.

Of course, look for extenuating circumstances. Parked with cover is not bad. "First under," a.k.a. the pocket trip, is golden. However, both of these can be behind bad cover, which may falsely indicate a hanging effort. Your job, sir, is to determine which of these it is. Go get 'em. :ThmbUp:

[freddyblu22]

Hi Guys
I've noticed that at Meadowlands the faster a horse goes to the 3/4 the slower his final quarter will be and vice-versa. Which makes sense.
My question is How to use this information for handicapping purposes. What I am trying now is to look for the top 2 or 3 in both categories. Add some other factors and maybe this horse has an edge.

I don't know if this is the best way so I would like to hear your opinions.

Thanks

Good question, and a lot of good answers..

let me take a quick shot at this, if i may..

personally, i find that last Q's are VERY overrated.. this has been touched on by a few responses already, but in my opinion here is the bottom line.. the final last quarter is completely inversely proportional to what the first 3 quarters are.. in other words, the final quarter time alone is meaningless, unless you take into factor the pace scenario that has led up to it..

with all horses being equal, obviously the final quarter time is going to be quicker if they went to 3/4 in 1:24, as opposed to going to 3/4 in 1:21..

i dont think there is any "key" or "secret" to handicapping this aspect - no pace figures are going to unlock the code.. but if you watch enough races over and over and over again, you'll get a feel for horses who are truly sharp their last quarter..

i guess my point is that i feel that no quarter of the race is necessarily more important than any other quarter.. in some races, the first quarter might be the most important.. in other races, i horse might make a monster move during the 3rd quarter, etc etc.. each race is unique (which was said by another member), and i completely agree with that.. i think that the most times the race can be won or lost in the first 1/8th of a mile too, so im always looking at that as well..

and one more thing with last quarter times to beware of.. a lot of times (especially on 5/8th and 1/2 milers), many horses are boxed in and cant even shake free and go on their own until the final 1/8 or even 1/16th.. so whatever their last Q is timed, its really not a true barometer..

i know im rambling now, so im going to call it a post..

ps - i've been away for a couple weeks, but its good to be back on here