I can't be the only one that knows this blatant bias at Del Mar

[Turfday]

First, a shameless plug for my website Turfday.com. I can do this, because I'm a sponsor.

This information is readily available at anyone's fingertips (and for ANY track in the country) plus much, much more.

Since Jan. 1, 1995 which is as far back as our database goes....about 12 1/2 years.....there have been 138 races on the Del Mar turf course at 1 1/8 miles.

This stat ONLY applies to the 1 1/8 miles distance and NOT to the 1 mile or 1 1/16 mile distance.

In field sizes of 6-7-8-9-10 runners combined, there have been 1,142 horses that have started in races with those field sizes at 1 1/8 miles turf.

If all things were "created equal" then the average or norm would be 12% wins (1,142 divided by 138). Take any two combinations of adjacent post positions and that doubles to 24% wins being the norm.

Posts one and two have combined for 41 wins out of those 138 races or 30% wins. This is 25% more wins and far greater than any other two adjacent posts on the DMR turf course at this distance.

The reason looks simple to me. At the 1/8 miles distance on turf, the race is run out of the chute and when you look at the course layout, check out the dogleg to the left. Horses inside really get a chance to save ground and horses drawn outside get the worst of it. Obviously, this is a general statement based on my own observation.

The 30% wins, of course, is based on NO HANDICAPPING whatsoever.

Trouble is, Del Mar usually cards only about 10-15 of these 1 1/8 miles turf races per meet.

[ddog]

stop posting this kind of stuff.
It was just you and I until now.

;)

[Tom]

YEAH! :mad::mad::mad::mad:













;)

[cj]

Those types of stats are nice. However, you need more. You need to know if the public bets the inside advantage. You can find situations where a factor wins a lot more than average but gets hammered at the windows even more.

I'm not knocking the information and it is generous of you to provide it. I'm just saying there is always room in this game to dig deeper, and knowing what the public bets is very, very important.

In 2007, I have 10 races in my database that meet your criteria. Posts 1 and 2 give 20 starters with 3 winners returning a total of $17.60 for $40.00 bet. Posts 3 and 4 were 1 for 20 with the winner paying $7.

Betting the 7 and 8 posts had 4 winners from 19 starters, returning $58.80 per $38 wagered.

[hdcper]

Just thought I would post Jcapper's output of Del Mar turf races at 1 1/8m for 2007 by rail postion and post time odds, looks like I have two more races than your output CJ. One thing I did notice right away, was that not one horse out of 46 going off at 9/1 or better won at this distance.






Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
9.0f Turf (All*) ROUTES (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\ZDATABASE2007FINALYR\pL_profil e.txt)
Track: DMR

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 110.80 140.20 152.30
Bet -204.00 -204.00 -204.00
Gain -93.20 -63.80 -51.70

Wins 13 24 36
Plays 102 102 102
PCT .1275 .2353 .3529

ROI 0.5431 0.6873 0.7466
Avg Mut 8.52 5.84 4.23


By: Rail Position

Rail Pos Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -10.40 24.00 0.5667 2 12 .1667 1.3077
2 -20.00 24.00 0.1667 1 12 .0833 0.6538
3 -24.00 24.00 0.0000 0 12 .0000 0.0000
4 -13.60 24.00 0.4333 2 12 .1667 1.3077
5 -12.60 24.00 0.4750 3 12 .2500 1.9615
6 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
7 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
8 40.80 18.00 3.2667 4 9 .4444 3.4872
9 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000
10 2.60 10.00 1.2600 1 5 .2000 1.5692
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 3.80 6.00 1.6333 3 3 1.0000
1.00 1.50 0.00 4.00 1.0000 1 2 .5000
1.50 2.00 2.00 8.00 1.2500 2 4 .5000
2.00 2.50 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000
2.50 3.00 1.00 6.00 1.1667 1 3 .3333
3.00 3.50 -3.40 12.00 0.7167 1 6 .1667
3.50 4.00 3.20 6.00 1.5333 1 3 .3333
4.00 4.50 2.20 8.00 1.2750 1 4 .2500
4.50 5.00 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000
5.00 5.50 6.60 6.00 2.1000 1 3 .3333
5.50 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.00 6.50 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000
6.50 7.00 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
7.00 7.50 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000
7.50 8.00 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
8.00 8.50 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
8.50 9.00 29.40 10.00 3.9400 2 5 .4000
9.00 9999.00 -92.00 92.00 0.0000 0 46 .0000



Ending BankRoll: $321.00
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $497.00
Low BankRoll: $312.30
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00

[joelouis]

Just thought I would post Jcapper's output of Del Mar turf races at 1 1/8m for 2007 by rail postion and post time odds, looks like I have two more races than your output CJ. One thing I did notice right away, was that not one horse out of 46 going off at 9/1 or better won at this distance.



Good stuff :) keep it coming



Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
9.0f Turf (All*) ROUTES (From Index File: C:\JcapperDatabases\ZDATABASE2007FINALYR\pL_profil e.txt)
Track: DMR

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 110.80 140.20 152.30
Bet -204.00 -204.00 -204.00
Gain -93.20 -63.80 -51.70

Wins 13 24 36
Plays 102 102 102
PCT .1275 .2353 .3529

ROI 0.5431 0.6873 0.7466
Avg Mut 8.52 5.84 4.23


By: Rail Position

Rail Pos Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -10.40 24.00 0.5667 2 12 .1667 1.3077
2 -20.00 24.00 0.1667 1 12 .0833 0.6538
3 -24.00 24.00 0.0000 0 12 .0000 0.0000
4 -13.60 24.00 0.4333 2 12 .1667 1.3077
5 -12.60 24.00 0.4750 3 12 .2500 1.9615
6 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
7 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
8 40.80 18.00 3.2667 4 9 .4444 3.4872
9 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000
10 2.60 10.00 1.2600 1 5 .2000 1.5692
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 3.80 6.00 1.6333 3 3 1.0000
1.00 1.50 0.00 4.00 1.0000 1 2 .5000
1.50 2.00 2.00 8.00 1.2500 2 4 .5000
2.00 2.50 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000
2.50 3.00 1.00 6.00 1.1667 1 3 .3333
3.00 3.50 -3.40 12.00 0.7167 1 6 .1667
3.50 4.00 3.20 6.00 1.5333 1 3 .3333
4.00 4.50 2.20 8.00 1.2750 1 4 .2500
4.50 5.00 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000
5.00 5.50 6.60 6.00 2.1000 1 3 .3333
5.50 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.00 6.50 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000
6.50 7.00 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
7.00 7.50 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000
7.50 8.00 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
8.00 8.50 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
8.50 9.00 29.40 10.00 3.9400 2 5 .4000
9.00 9999.00 -92.00 92.00 0.0000 0 46 .0000



Ending BankRoll: $321.00
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $497.00
Low BankRoll: $312.30
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet: 500.00





Good stuff keep em coming

[cj]

Just thought I would post Jcapper's output of Del Mar turf races at 1 1/8m for 2007 by rail postion and post time odds, looks like I have two more races than your output CJ.



He did have a field size restriction you may have missed.

[hdcper]

Your right, I stand corrected!

Thanks CJ,

Hdcper

[Robert Fischer]

part of handicapping each race is understanding the track configuration.
You have to at least know the run to the first turn and the length of the stretch.

[Turfday]

I agree with CJ's comment about needing to know the payoffs of the winners breaking from posts one and two.

But even without them, I would say winning 25% more of the races is huge.

Using Turfday.com, figuring out the average odds per starter from posts one and two was easy. It was right about 12/1. But the number of winners varied from posts one and two and at the different field sizes in my thread starter, don't have the average win payoff available.

Since Del Mar really didn't reconfigure it's turf course, citing a 10 or 12-race sample from last year isn't nearly as meaningful as the long term 138-race sample I was using for my thread starter.

[cj]

Stats like that which don't deal with the quality of the horses, especially in a small sample, can be dangerous. As good as that figure looks this year, it must have looked even better last year given its poor performance in 2007. If you bet it, you took a bath.

Since it is widely accepted the public is the best predictor, using the ROI from the posts might give a better picture. But the sample size, even in the 100s, is pretty minuscule for me to have much confidence in it.

[Robert Fischer]

you can't really bet stats in a track configuration issue. The stats should however give you cause to look into the matter.

At Del Mar 9 furlongs turf you get 15 or 16 seconds to get to the chute turn. Then you get 14 seconds from the chute turn to the 1stTurn. These are gate to turn times, I could care less what the fractions say at that point.

If you watch After Market in the Eddie Read he wins from the farrr outside post last year. WaYYYYY outside:sleeping:. Actually there were only 5 entries. The horse with post position #1 (or $1), a horse by the misnomer Fast and Furious was furiously choked back from out of the gate by jockey Victor Espinoza. The $2 post position horse Frankel's Out of Control did not press the issue, but "inherited" the lead on both the chute turn and 1stTurn. Out of Control wins the race if not for After Market's brilliant stretch run.

It has nothing to do with statistics once the statistics alert you to the situation.
You are looking to posts 1 or 2 for a quality turf horse with gate speed and a jockey who is talented wire-to-wire. You also want a large field of entries. Finally you want the betting favorite way on the outside, preferably a horse that can't rate out of the gate so he gets caught wide twice in the first 30 seconds.


Another good example is the Delaware 8.5turf and about8.5.turf
To the chute turn = 11.5 seconds
From chute to 1st Turn =19 seconds
Recently there was the ungraded 55k Eight Thirty Stakes. All things being equal IMO Salinja from post position #4 figured to go wire-to-wire against a moderate group. Highway robbery at 4-1!?

With the track configuration the public's favorite Stay Close was an atrocious choice, being unrateable from the gate, with no chance to clear, and drawing post #8. 0.90-1 was laughable. The charts don't even mention that he was 5 and 6 wide for the chute and 1st turn:confused:.

Grab your win ticket on Salinja and wave it as you start the Head-on-replay at cal racing. However watch Wheels Up At Noon from post #1. He is urged up to the chute turn, and then again the 1st Turn. Jeremy Rose used the quirky track configuration to the utmost advantage in what was quietly a brilliant ride, he recieved little fanfare or even notice for beating the superior Salinja wire to wire with his 9-1 shot. Probably the last good ride before Rose's suspension. Luckily my only wager was on Salinja to show collecting 4.40/2 for a near lock.


You have to understand the run to the first turn (or turns with a chute), and you have to match the abilities of the horses and jockeys to that BIAS. When the stars allign you have an advantage. Other times the bias has little to no effect.

[Robert Fischer]

watching Palace Charmer try to wire this field at 30-1.

He should have no chance but i wouldn't be shocked if he takes them for a thrill before quitting . no bet here

[Robert Fischer]

never mind he didn't break, they held the 4 ladybest rank , and let the 9 go to the front for the easy lead.

the 9 did quit to 4th for her efforts

[bellsbendboy]

The turf course at Delmar is unique and inside horses have advantages that are not present on other courses. About ten years ago the course was widened and a "state of the art" drainage system was installed. Unfortunately, the course was composed of three different grasses and each required different watering.

So from memory, in late 2004 or 2005 Delmar tested then installed the new Greg Norman bermuda. During that installation, plastic grates or honeycombs were put underneath the grass and the course was banked allowing better cornering.

Additionally and minorly many a jock has had issues with the afternoon sun when turning for home, which accounts for some strange stretch runs, especially with the rail up.

Lastly, the home stretch is wider than the backstretch which is barely fifty feet and jockeys are understandably reluctant to get caught wide down the backside, making them wide for the turn with a stretch of only 760 feet. BBB