PKTRUCKDRIVER wants to know if we're in a recession

[PaceAdvantage]

Let him know.

[wonatthewire1]

I want to know if the honeymoon phase is over...

:jump:

[ceejay]

3 to 5 that we are.

but I'm in a "recession-proof" city! (http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/29/cities-recession-places-forbeslife-cx_jz_0429realestate_slide_11.html?thisSpeed=20000 )

[riskman]

"It was a very organized attack. On May 9th, the accountants snuck in the back door that Friday night after 5:00pm once the bank's doors had closed. Little did anyone know the doors were closing for good..."

And under the cover of darkness, over a hundred FDIC accountants began to systematically dismantle ANB financial headquarters - the venerable US$2.1 Billion institution that had been in business just hours before.




http://www.sovereignsociety.com/2008ARCHIVES/6608NoChecksNoDebitCardsNoSavings/tabid/4128/Default.aspx

[King Ritchie]

Only if you are Media, Liberal, Democrat, Commie, Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, Goofy or Curious George.

[pktruckdriver]

Riskman


A very scary article, and could we see Bank of America, Chase or any other big Bank do this, God I hope not.

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, if anyone thinks I have singled out PKTRUCKDRIVER with this thread, I want it to be known that PKTD tried to create his own poll for this very subject (recession or not), but his poll allowed you to select more than one response, which made little sense, plus his choice of responses were a bit muddled, so I had to delete that thread and decided to create this more direct and to-the-point thread in its place.I've already received a PM telling me it wasn't very fair of me to single out PKTD just because I disagree with him, and that is why I am providing this little bit of history that all would not be aware of if you didn't catch that prior thread which was only up for a few minutes.

[PaceAdvantage]

Riskman


A very scary article, and could we see Bank of America, Chase or any other big Bank do this, God I hope not.Wait, wait wait....hold on here a minute....

ONLY THREE banks have failed this year? THREE? That's IT?

Are you kidding me? I thought America (according to you) WAS DYING? I thought (according to you) that the last eight years under Bush has been the WORST TIME EVER in American history....these are your words, correct?

And only THREE banks have failed so far in 2008? Really? The year is already half-way over....does that mean only SIX banks will fail the entire year?

Here's a little perspective for you, Mr. America is DYING and this is the WORST time in AMERICAN HISTORY....

1986 - 145banks failed in the United States.

There have only been TWO years since 1934 when NO banks have failed. Were those two years during the glory Clinton administration that you like to cite as the salad days of America? No sir....those two years without a SINGLE bank failure were 2005 and 2006, smack DAB in the MIDDLE of the DEVIL BUSH YEARS!

Only THREE US banks failed in 2007. And so far this year, only three have failed through six months....

DURING THE PEAK OF THE S&L CRISIS MORE THAN 1,000 BANKS FAILED in 1988 and 1989, at a rate of more than 2 EVERY BUSINESS DAY for two consecutive years.

So go ahead and tell me again how horrible it is out there, how America is DYING and how these past eight years have been the WORST EVER for America.

Check out this page for a humdinger of a graph:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/01/history-of-us-bank-failures.html

[Dave Schwartz]

So go ahead and tell me again how horrible it is out there, how America is DYING and how these past eight years have been the WORST EVER for America.

It is horrible "out here" for some people, just bad for many others.

Although dying might be an exageration, America is certainly not breathing well.

And the country has changed since 9/11. (The terrorists are winning.)


Dave

PS: Thanks for clearing up the issue of why you named the thread as you did.

[GameTheory]

It is horrible "out here" for some people, just bad for many others.Define "horrible". If someone has to cinch their belt to pay for gas (non-truck driver), is that horrible? Or do they at least have to lose their job, or what? To me, horrible is not being able to eat. Anybody reading this doing horrible? How so?

And the country has changed since 9/11. (The terrorists are winning.)They are? How so?

[bigmack]

Vicious cycle this debate with a regional, occupational, partisan take of ones version of "recession".

For me it ain't half as bad as the "it's bad" crowd utters. Nevertheless, it ain't good.

Whole lotta folk out west here got spoiled on RE. Lots of bad paper to come.

[lamboguy]

only 3 banks have gone down, kinda big ones, but only 3. that is great, its like when a credit manager asks his customer, "have you been late more than 7 times on your payments?" answer hell no, i have only been late 3 times!

as far as spinning goes, the strenghth of the country lies in the value of its currency. this currency the great US DOLLAR has only gone down from 126 to 73 and heading to 52. i guess that is about as good as the only 3 banks folding up, go tell that one to the guys that run all the central banks of the world, and while you are at it, tell the people that have to heat their homes and drive their cars.

thank you for visiting spinderella land

[pktruckdriver]

Now Bossman is right I tried to set-up a poll to get your opinion on how the country is doing, and he being the Guru here fixed it so it looked right, thanks Bossman.


Now as to this other stuff, man you really single in on one thing and ride it for all its worth.

Example the word ,"Death", may be a little strong, but when the things I state are all beginning with ,"All time Historical Low's and High's", it seems you overlook that, and try to focus on my word of death, when we are slowly getting worse and worse, can we recover, so far we always have, so that leads me to think we will this time too.

But when was the last time people stood up for reform, truly stood up and said we need change, THIS IS NOT WORKING AND GOT SOMETHING CHANGED, WHEN??

You seem content on picking on me, the lonely ole truckdriver, and that is ok, I take none of this personally, and hope no one here does either, but my opinion is from what I see happening , not what I want to happen, ok.

Ok
Patrick

[lamboguy]

when diesel fuel for your truck goes up to over $15 a gallon, if and when the dollar falls to 52, you will know what recession means.

back in the nixon era, the world financial leaders got to gether in breton woods, and took the united states currency off the gold standard. it ws called the "BRETTON WOODS ACCORD" instead of gold the $ would be teh standard of all world currencies. meaning gold to be priced in dollars, oil, and other commodties. that is the fiat currency system, its there to fool ya!

gold has been around for about 5000 years before the united states was in existence, i suspect it will be here for about another 5000 years after the united states is gone.

gold has not gone up form $248 an ounce to over $900 an ounce because the president of the worlds supreme power has instilled to much confidence in him in the last 8 years. well as we all know, when there are to many genious's on one side of the equation, the majority is usually wrong. so i guess the jury is still out

[DJofSD]

DURING THE PEAK OF THE S&L CRISIS MORE THAN 1,000 BANKS FAILED in 1988 and 1989, at a rate of more than 2 EVERY BUSINESS DAY for two consecutive years.

Yes, during that period there were a large number of S & L's closed -- but I'm not sure you can accurately say failed. Key to the churn that occured during the so-called S & L crisis was the institution of minimum liquidity requirements. These 3 measurements, when not met, were used as the reason for the RTC to take over and redistribute an S & L's assets.

Surely, some of those institutions were in need of help and others absolutely needed to be spanked. But to this day, I'm not sure the Federal government did not over reach.

[DJofSD]

I responded no b/c on a purely technical basis, we are not in a recession.

However, that is not to say various sectors of the economy are doing well. If you work for Citigroup, you have a 1 in 10 chance of losing your job today.

[wonatthewire1]

Only if you are Media, Liberal, Democrat, Commie, Donald Duck, Mickey Mouse, Goofy or Curious George.


Hey Curious George is optimistic!

:jump:

[wonatthewire1]

Wait, wait wait....hold on here a minute....

ONLY THREE banks have failed this year? THREE? That's IT?

Are you kidding me? I thought America (according to you) WAS DYING? I thought (according to you) that the last eight years under Bush has been the WORST TIME EVER in American history....these are your words, correct?

And only THREE banks have failed so far in 2008? Really? The year is already half-way over....does that mean only SIX banks will fail the entire year?

Here's a little perspective for you, Mr. America is DYING and this is the WORST time in AMERICAN HISTORY....

1986 - 145banks failed in the United States.

There have only been TWO years since 1934 when NO banks have failed. Were those two years during the glory Clinton administration that you like to cite as the salad days of America? No sir....those two years without a SINGLE bank failure were 2005 and 2006, smack DAB in the MIDDLE of the DEVIL BUSH YEARS!

Only THREE US banks failed in 2007. And so far this year, only three have failed through six months....

DURING THE PEAK OF THE S&L CRISIS MORE THAN 1,000 BANKS FAILED in 1988 and 1989, at a rate of more than 2 EVERY BUSINESS DAY for two consecutive years.

So go ahead and tell me again how horrible it is out there, how America is DYING and how these past eight years have been the WORST EVER for America.

Check out this page for a humdinger of a graph:

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/01/history-of-us-bank-failures.html


Hey wasn't 1986ish the Keating 5 time frame - could come back to bite John in the a** and don't think Barry isn't going to roll that one out when he's ready

:lol:

[ddog]

i recused myself, but ......don't fight the trend!

Oh and "technically" can't be called yet.
However, you can opine just as I can.


;)

[ddog]

Yes, during that period there were a large number of S & L's closed -- but I'm not sure you can accurately say failed. Key to the churn that occured during the so-called S & L crisis was the institution of minimum liquidity requirements. These 3 measurements, when not met, were used as the reason for the RTC to take over and redistribute an S & L's assets.

Surely, some of those institutions were in need of help and others absolutely needed to be spanked. But to this day, I'm not sure the Federal government did not over reach.

I worked through and on about a hundred of those an even went to work as consultant for some of the about to be killed by RTC and I can tell you that the biggest "reason" for that mess, was fraud and outright criminal behaviour on a massive and ongoing scale.

The stories of cooked books, off book , even the IT guys some places were involved in making the "books" look good on the "system".

You would just never believe it if you hadn't seen it.
Gvt bent over backwards to save/merge those that had a prayer of survival.

[PaceAdvantage]

You seem content on picking on me, the lonely ole truckdriver, and that is ok, I take none of this personally, and hope no one here does either, but my opinion is from what I see happening , not what I want to happen, ok.Picking on you? What?!?

You stated that my country was DYING! You stated that GWB "killed this once great country of ours."

You stated that "...these last 8yrs were some of the worst times this country has ever seen..."

And you call my reply, which merely counters your hyperbolic verbiage with actual facts from much worse eras in American economic history, as "picking on you?"

[ddog]

Someone(s) are buying a lot less food. The yoy never drops like this has in the recent past that I can find.


Even a downer by my low standards.

Inflation washed.

[WinterTriangle]

Not being a trained economist, *recession* has far more indicators than I am able to analyze.

I voted yes, because Warren Buffet said we are. Given what I think Buffet *knows* about money, I admit to taking the*sheeple* role here. I read Nouriel Roubini and other independent global analysts, I don't buy the government's voodoo accounting that seems to have been turned into something akin to string theory. (Or as Warren Buffet said, "... instead, it seems they have really been using mark-to-fantasy......")

Does quantity of bank failures tell the story? Not IMHO. This isn't anything like Continental Illinois Bank & Trust or Franklin National like back in the 70's .......this is the 2nd largest bank in the world posting $16 billion in writedowns.

One must also take into account the collapse of other complex financial instruments hitting other industries (like insurance). Securitized mortgage lending has virtually *disappeared*. I think you have to take every sign, and symptom, and realize that these are not separate phenomena, but all part of the *same* phenomena.

Back in April Fed members fretted over a “prolonged and severe” business downturn. That's when they voted to cut the interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, to 2.25. Rather aggressive, to say the least. :eek:

Denver nieghborhood map, courtesy of USA Today (red blocks are homes in foreclosure!). Does this look like what you would see in a healthy economy?

http://pic60.picturetrail.com/VOL1689/10590113/19309802/312847438.jpg

[lamboguy]

having met MYRON SCHOLES, co-founder of the well known otions volitility theory called the BLACK-SHOLES FORMULA later to become a nobel prize for economics winner. he told me he had a "scam" to get all the money. that scam turned out to be LONG TERM CAPITAL. naturally this guys was very impressive, he haid a chair at stanford and seemed to me for what little i really know to be a true genious. LONG TERM CAPITAL turned out to be a derrivetive based idea, buying and selling otions and futures against the hedged cash position. they had a computer model that did all the thinking and they collected the market. they won for about 3 years. all i could think of was these guys out sharped the sharps. just like someone walking into las vegas and cleaning the town out. the one thing i know about vegas is that they didn't spend millions and millions of dollars in the middle of the desert without a drop of water, for someone to walk in there and take the money out of the place. the same thing with world markets, they are not there for one guy to scam them out of money. anyway as we all know, LONG TERM CAPITAL blew up to smitherines. the government, meaning the tax payers, had to bail out the whole deal. right now we have a similar problem, only thing is that this time its LONG TERM CAPITAL on steroids.
if and when these guys go, look out baby. so this talk about anticipated recession will be meaningless when judgement day arives. and from this idiot's perspective (that's me) the worst anticipated perspective always wind up showing up at some point of time. i didn't say we are going to hell in a handbad, it just looks that way to me.

[JustRalph]

Denver nieghborhood map, courtesy of USA Today (red blocks are homes in foreclosure!). Does this look like what you would see in a healthy economy?

http://pic60.picturetrail.com/VOL1689/10590113/19309802/312847438.jpg

Don't forget that the numbers are going to be skewed on Foreclosures now. Many are walking away........as a business decision. Not on the mere " I can't pay for it any longer" I am receiving advice to do the same from more than one source lately. Including my attorney and others. It is going to get worse..........but by choice. The residential housing market is going to churn through a bunch of stuff in the next 24 months or so. And what comes out the other side is going to be interesting to say the least.

[ddog]

Jr

I got a little birdy and he tells me that the stats on foreclosures are BETTER than looked.

The lenders can't even process the backload.

The lenders NEED to carry loans (and are) as delinquent NOT foreclosed.

Many many are just staying put but not paying.

Lenders don't want to move, then they have to handle the fallout.

It will be interesting but it isn't even close to worked out yet.

If the idiotic BOFA-Dodd criminal bailout bill ever passes you will be paying for the bad decisions forever.

Makes good sense why BOFA would buy Countrywide(dead corp walking ) when they already KNEW they had greased the skids in Congress to get any thing they needed passed into law.

hang any Congress crook that votes for this scam.

Hope that Bush WILL veto and it will hold, I suspect they will override.

:ThmbDown:

[JustRalph]

I can't believe it is still as bad as it is........

I don't see anything changing in the near/far future

[pktruckdriver]

I can't believe it is still as bad as it is........

I don't see anything changing in the near/far future

You are absolutely right, trucking jobs are way down, no new freight (manufactured), is being generated, everywhere we went before is closed down and not re-opening.

People are still riding on unemployment extensions, just prolonging the worst case scenario a litttle longer. Billions in Stimulus, but where are the jobs, they just aren't there, they never will be, at the most a few hundred jobs created, sad that we paid bonueses to failing businessess at our expense and no one did a damn thing, did they, nope no one , not you , not me or not our politiicians did one damn thing about, except gripe about it.

Why a few years ago did this board refuse to believe this was coming, I saw the real America at the dock door, and it was scared and worried, and had every right to be, looked what IS HAPPENING, not what happened, as it is far from over, unfortunately, wish it was, but the trucker can't see his shadow, or is it his...whatever it is , he's here to tell you the worst is yet to come, and pray to God I am wromg, really I do, but I'm not.

Good Luck All

[PaceAdvantage]

Why a few years ago did this board refuse to believe this was coming, I saw the real America at the dock door, and it was scared and worried, and had every right to be, looked what IS HAPPENING, not what happened, as it is far from over, unfortunately, wish it was, but the trucker can't see his shadow, or is it his...whatever it is , he's here to tell you the worst is yet to come, and pray to God I am wromg, really I do, but I'm not.

Good Luck AllI hate to be a prick, but you don't like me anyway, so here goes....

If you saw this coming a few years ago when lots of others did not, why didn't you take everything you had and simply short the shit out of the financial markets? You could have made that "big score" you're always talking about on the horse racing side of things...only it would have been 100x+ bigger...

[Relwob Owner]

I hate to be a prick, but you don't like me anyway, so here goes....

If you saw this coming a few years ago when lots of others did not, why didn't you take everything you had and simply short the shit out of the financial markets? You could have made that "big score" you're always talking about on the horse racing side of things...only it would have been 100x+ bigger...



Thinking something and having the resolve and/or resources to do it are two different things....having followed Patrick a bit, it kind of seems like you are kicking him when he is down a bit, doesnt it? Doesnt seem very cool to tell him a "would have/could have/should have" scenario considering some of the challenges he has faced.

[lamboguy]

Don't forget that the numbers are going to be skewed on Foreclosures now. Many are walking away........as a business decision. Not on the mere " I can't pay for it any longer" I am receiving advice to do the same from more than one source lately. Including my attorney and others. It is going to get worse..........but by choice. The residential housing market is going to churn through a bunch of stuff in the next 24 months or so. And what comes out the other side is going to be interesting to say the least.because our banks operate under the fractional banking system, meaning they can leverage their borrowing up to 10 fold on the assets they have on their books, we have not seen a small percentage of all the foreclosures to come. right now the federal reserve is looking the other way with non performing loans on homes. but that won't go on forever. if a homeowner doesn't pay his mortgage, why would he pay his property taxes. eventually if the banks don't foreclose the city or town will place tax leans on those homes and force them into forecloser. at that time either banks pony up the taxes owed or the banks lose the properties. so far the banks have been paying the taxes. one thing for sure is that there will be plenty of inventory out there in the future.

[pktruckdriver]

Thinking something and having the resolve and/or resources to do it are two different things....having followed Patrick a bit, it kind of seems like you are kicking him when he is down a bit, doesnt it? Doesnt seem very cool to tell him a "would have/could have/should have" scenario considering some of the challenges he has faced.


Thank You, Really.

Now Bossman, I have no reason to not like you, yes we disagree of a few things, but isn't that our right, the reason for boards like this one, and this one is one of the better one's, no doubt.

You know by now, that I have no idea what you mean by shorting a recession for a Big Score, doesn't that take money too, and you know my paycheck to paycheck lifestyle does not allow me to to short, it barely allows me to play the ponies once in awhile, as it has been a long time since my last wager, so you are welcome to take your jabs at me, I hold no ill will, say what you must, because some old trucker knew this recession/depression was coming and you did not, whaaaaaaa. Na Na Na My feeling aren't hurt, I will get up and go on.

When my paychecks stopped, and I ended up in the Boise Rescue Mission, did I quit, no I kept plugging away, and finally another job came around , one that this times mean more since they are so AND I DO MEAN SO HARD TO COME BY NOW, that this is one I and both very greatful for and will do my best to hold onto, because I am still always one paycheck away from that mission, so the dream of that life changing score still exists for me, and probally always will, but that is what America is about , seeing our dreams come true, so feel free to kick me if you want, I will get back up Bossman.

Still love this site, no matter how much you rag on me, or I rag on you, okay

[RichieP]

Thank You, Really.



Hey Patrick!
Hope you are well and I love your You Tube song :):)

Keep rocking man :ThmbUp:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjnzEeCbGkY&feature=PlayList&p=E46C5FF5E2590FA9&index=0

[Tom]

Hang in there, Patrick.
There may be lots of work in NYS soon, as the rest our businesses pull out and look for states that do not prey on success and kill incentive. May even need to move a new governor into the mansion when this one goes to jail.
I'll keep you posted! :rolleyes::lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Thinking something and having the resolve and/or resources to do it are two different things....having followed Patrick a bit, it kind of seems like you are kicking him when he is down a bit, doesnt it?No...not really...he's a dreamer like the rest of us...dreamers have a way of getting cash...

You don't need tons of money to make a nice score in the markets if your opinion is correct. Anyone can open a brokerage account these days online...

PK was on the front lines...he saw what was happening early on in the trucking business. He could have used this insight to his advantage...that's all I'm saying...

[pktruckdriver]

Hey Bossman

How bout this scenario, I made the prediction, you believed me and then we together took advantage of the coming recession, and with your tutorledge, you'd show me how to cahs in in the economy, ....well it could have happened.

Like I said , no hard feeling as we just disagred to disagee, and that's cool, take care, and good luck.