A few Saturday Picks 6/21

[Ray2000]

Saturday's Longshot Picks

Hard to come up with anything I like today.

Playing Win , Exacta P1/P2P3 , Str tri on these 5 races (except box Mohawk)

Hoosier R13......9104 Ss Knight Raider 8/1 Andy'S Z Tam 15/1 Camcoder 7/2
Did not race in 2006-7 ? but getting better each start, class drop, better driver

Mohawk R11........158 Presidential Alert 8/1 Siddall 3/1 Armbros Revenge A 7/2
Boxing these 3, with Tetrick on the 8 and Gingras on the 5, anything can happen

The BigM R4.......451 Laura Lane N 12/1 Lady Juniper N 9/2 Little D J 12/1
Has best ave TrackMaster Class & Speed ratings, Raced well here in 30K claimers on 5/16

Rockingham R4.....428 Stormont Vodka 10/1 Ginsignia 5/2 Michael Darling 9/2
Fun race, could provide a lot of laughs

Scioto R8.........157 The Fonz 12/1 J Ds Survivor 9/2 Cy Pres Mindale 7/2
Rail and driver switch may be what The Fonz Needs, ....."Aaaay",


Good Luck All

BTW
May be my last appearance in Survival, I'm barefoot and going with

R6..Don'T Fool Me Now
R7..My Fella
R9..Major Ideal

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[mrroyboy]

I think you are right on the money with Big M Race 4

[Stick]

Ray
Have you figured out the best way to play your gimmick selections ( box,key,cold) or is it still up in the air.

[toetoe]

Ray,

I have Millered up in 2 o' 3:

6) Georgia Pacific;

7) Ideal Vintage; and

9) Big Al's Delight.

C'mon, trot fast my dappled nags. :jump:

[Ray2000]

Best of Luck Toe, (and to all who are still alive)

good potential in those picks


Stick:

Since 1/1/05 my raw computer selections on 8,183 races where Pick1 Morning Line is >7
has returned 17.3% ROI if bet P1/P2P3 and 2.0% ROI if played boxing all 3

When I put up my picks here, sometimes I post raw computer picks but usually I check them out manually and toss out the ones that look stupid to me. (about half of them). So I'm still uncertain which is the best way to play. The boxes have outdone the wheels so far, but I have to believe wheeling is better.
I'd say the best way is to check out the race and say "Yea, I can go with that" or "That guy's way off base on this one":)

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[JBmadera]

hey Ray - gonna play your #5 and #8 with the #7 in an exacta box R11 at Mohawk. Also, probably gonna play old M Ali in the first at the Big M ONE MORE TIME, then that's it! best of luck to all


jb

[Stick]

RAy
Is it worth it to second guess the computer at 17.3 % or have you found the ROI can be increased by eliminating certain races? Also, even if the ROI can be raised, you would have to raise it a lot to make up for 17% of 4,000 races(half).

[Ray2000]

Stick

Everything you say is true.

Let me go into a little more detail on how I play the races.

My computer playlist includes a lot more races than I post here, often Pick1 is less than 7/1 but the sum of Morning lines is still higher than 14.5, so it makes the list.

I play all races on the list with straight Trifectas, backed with Exacta boxes on P1P2 when the ML on those 2 is > 14. Straight Trifecta betting is far and away best for me. 54% ROI

Now for the picks that I post here, (ML P1>7) I bet those also Win and Exacta 3 box because I feel I should back them if I post them.

I started with boxing 3 because the hit frequency is 1 in 5 versus 1 in 15 for wheels and I wanted to put up some winners. :) So far I've put up around 300 races since March and that's too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions, other than I've been pretty lucky.

From now on though, I'm going to play the part wheel Exactas on these picks unless noted.

[harcapper]

Since 1/1/05 my raw computer selections on 8,183 races where Pick1 Morning Line is >7
has returned 17.3% ROI if bet P1/P2P3 and 2.0% ROI if played boxing all 3

When I put up my picks here, sometimes I post raw computer picks but usually I check them out manually and toss out the ones that look stupid to me. (about half of them). So I'm still uncertain which is the best way to play. The boxes have outdone the wheels so far, but I have to believe wheeling is better.
I'd say the best way is to check out the race and say "Yea, I can go with that" or "That guy's way off base on this one"

Ray,

Just curious as to what program you use that nets a 17% positive ROI.

As I see you are a numbers man, when comparing boxing to wheeling, try tracking stats on your selections with what you would consider weak and strong chalks. I myself use the old school pencil and paper method of handicapping but do track my own stats very closely. I have found that when I like a price horse in a race with a weak favorite, wheeling a horse up and down nets me positive results. It allows the potential to cash on the larger exactas that no computer program could ever come up with.

Har

[Ray2000]

Har

The computer program is my own creation and is a macro driven Excel spreadsheet that extracts data from Trackmaster PP files, looks for certain types of races where overlays might exist, and then rates the entries using a variety of factors, including my own speed ratings.

Since Jan 2005 the results on 32,125 races that made the "Playlist" are:

Win....................-1.3% ROI
Exacta P1/P2P3.....8.7% ROI
Str Tri P1P2P3.....54.4% ROI

I'm surprised as anyone as to why the pool with the worst takeout percentage yields the best results.
More overlays must exist there. (the smart money is playing in the Win Pool?)

Even tossing out the 12 hit races where the trifecta payoff was > $1000 the ROI is still 35%

If I consider only the races where Pick 1 Morning Line > 7 then the Exacta part wheel yields 17.3%


I'll work on your suggestion of tracking results for weak and strong chalks.

I have complete charts for Canadian Tracks that I play but on US tracks I have the mutuel results but only some complete charts, so checking if the chalk was a heavy or weak favorite might be iffy.


Glad to see you're still #1 in wins:ThmbUp:

.

[harcapper]

Har, The computer program is my own creation and is a macro driven Excel spreadsheet that extracts data from Trackmaster PP files, looks for certain types of races where overlays might exist, and then rates the entries using a variety of factors, including my own speed ratings.

Since Jan 2005 the results on 32,125 races that made the "Playlist" are:

Win....................-1.3% ROI
Exacta P1/P2P3.....8.7% ROI
Str Tri P1P2P3.....54.4% ROI

I'm surprised as anyone as to why the pool with the worst takeout percentage yields the best results.
More overlays must exist there. (the smart money is playing in the Win Pool?)

Glad to see you're still #1 in wins

Ray,

If your program seeks value horses then your results make sense to me.

Keep in mind that for the most part the masses will key in on the chalk in their gimmicks trying to cash a ticket. It's too much work for most to try and find the hidden form and most gamblers have not the stones to throw a chalk out when it is a weak one. This makes nearly every gimmick payoff an underlay when the chalk wins.

Even the -1% figure on win wager is pretty good. With the take being in the 18% range at most venues, you are 17% over par.

Are you selling this program? If not, would it be possible for me to get a copy so I can check it out?

Re Survivor, I am torn as to how to proceed from here. I took a shot in the 3rd contest race last night trying to vault my dollars and it cost me a win. After capping and watching replays I landed on the 6 but went for a price.

I am by nature not a chalk player and the Meadowlands is not my regular track so it's been a struggle for me to remain this conservative.

Har

[Ray2000]

Har

I have no intention of ever selling the program but I am working on a free version which will allow the user to apply their own handicapping skills to select the type of races they want to analyze and what importance to give to the various factors.

I'm getting this question more and more so I'll use this chance to refer to:


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46517


.

[harcapper]

Har
I have no intention of ever selling the program but I am working on a free version which will allow the user to apply their own handicapping skills to select the type of races they want to analyze and what importance to give to the various factors.

Ray,

I have the program installed and am able to load up the TM exe files. What info should I focus in on to come up with a play?

If it is discretional, let me know what your thought process normally is? As you are posting your selections way prior to post time, how do you determine a value play? How do you find races that appeal etc. etc.

Har

[Ray2000]

Har

It's been months since I looked at that "Sulky" program, I had to refresh my memory as to what I included and what was removed.

It is calculating my speed ratings using the horses final time adjusted for racing wide in turns, track variance, post (corrected for trailer), track speed rating, and small factors for pace and driver.
A smaller number means the horse went faster. Those numbers show up on the graph in sheet "details".

Average Trackmaster speeds and class are shown on the sheet "Display"

On sheet "Just for Fun", the entries' rank in various factors is given and you can change the amount of "importance" (0-100) you would assign to this. Example.If the weather is dry, "Off Track Performance" would be 0 but if the track is expected to be sloppy, I'd give it 100.

What I removed was the 4th Quarter speed ratings, probable calls at the half, and the routines for running all tracks for specific dates.

Finally, your question on finding the value plays is hard to answer. The program first eliminates all races that are:
Maidens
Trackmaster Class<68
Purse<1500
SendTrack<>Track
Distance<>1 mile
Starters <8 or >10 or coupled entries
Amateur
any horse with a Morning Line < Minimum for that track
any horse with a Win% > 79
Hyena (any horse with no race lines for 100 days)
any race with more than 4 horses showing a breakline

The program then rates the horses and if the Morning line on Pick1 is less than 2.5 or the Morning Lines on the top 3 horses, when added together is less than 14.6 then that race is tossed out.

I give a lot of weight to improving form (down slope on graph), driver switch up, 2nd time lasix, and barn changes.

With all this I guess I end up with races where the favorite is vulnerable.
The biggest problem is Morning Lines that any human can see are way off, but the computer believes them.:)


Best of luck

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