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PaceAdvantage
06-16-2008, 11:19 PM
Since nobody else asked, I will....what are the early Beyer returns for the Stephen Foster?

Snow Chief
06-16-2008, 11:21 PM
Apparently it was a 105 according to McGee's article.

BillW
06-16-2008, 11:22 PM
Revised to a 110

o_crunk
06-16-2008, 11:23 PM
formblog says 110 (http://community.drf.com/formblog/2008/06/weekend-recap-b.html#more)

i don't follow CD that much, but i watched the replay of the pyro race and curlin and could have sworn they were unusually slow time-wise.

surely not the same track as derby day.

slewis
06-17-2008, 12:54 AM
Tell you what,


If Curlin's figure is 110. Then Pyro's gonna earn a great figure too because those times are reasonably in line.

AND.... the pace and splits in the SF were dismal, in my ever so humbling belief that pace is important in a race, allows a stalking runner to finish stronger.

Of course Curlin's weight (not factored by Beyer) will earn him a gd figure when compared to the ND stakes.

Cratos
06-17-2008, 01:07 AM
Tell you what,


If Curlin's figure is 110. Then Pyro's gonna earn a great figure too because those times are reasonably in line.

AND.... the pace and splits in the SF were dismal, in my ever so humbling belief that pace is important in a race, allows a stalking runner to finish stronger.

Of course Curlin's weight (not factored by Beyer) will earn him a gd figure when compared to the ND stakes.

Curlin’s performance in the Stephen Foster was very “Foregoian” in that when Allbarado ask him to run, run he did and the race was over. However you must congratulate the other jockeys for attempting to slow the pace to minimize Curlin’s big late kick, but his class allowed him to overcome that strategy.

46zilzal
06-17-2008, 01:14 AM
Many horses at the top CANNOT, repeat CANNOT be evaluated on pace. WHATEVER pace is thrown at them, whatever surface, post position or weight impost makes little to no difference to them (I am thinking of the great geldings of our time Kelso, Forego and John Henry). They simply overcome it. Curlin is coming into that realm.

plainolebill
06-17-2008, 01:22 AM
Tell you what, If Curlin's figure is 110. Then Pyro's gonna earn a great figure too because those times are reasonably in line.

98

slewis
06-17-2008, 01:31 AM
Many horses at the top CANNOT, repeat CANNOT be evaluated on pace. WHATEVER pace is thrown at them, whatever surface, post position or weight impost makes little to no difference to them (I am thinking of the great geldings of our time Kelso, Forego and John Henry). They simply overcome it. Curlin is coming into that realm.

I absolutely agree... It's not his fault (or any horses) his competition was a weak.

By the way, I dont think it's limited to just top horses. Every month I see a few horses that I believe could have won by greater margins if really pushed, but
it occurs much more frequently with the top horses.

rastajenk
06-17-2008, 07:47 AM
Yesterday Curlin had a 105 and Pyro a 101. Now Curlin goes up to a 110, and Pyro goes down to a 98? :confused:

Doesn't bother me, but it should get all the rabid anti-Beyerists foaming at the mouth. :D

At least they can't call it a pro-Asmussen bias...or an anti-Asmussen one, for that matter.

john del riccio
06-17-2008, 08:18 AM
Yesterday Curlin had a 105 and Pyro a 101. Now Curlin goes up to a 110, and Pyro goes down to a 98? :confused:

Doesn't bother me, but it should get all the rabid anti-Beyerists foaming at the mouth. :D

At least they can't call it a pro-Asmussen bias...or an anti-Asmussen one, for that matter.

I had CURLIN with the equivalent of a 115 Beyer, for what its worth...

John

asH
06-17-2008, 08:38 AM
Is it my imagination, or is Curlin a huge horse? the others looked like ponies next to him.
By allowing Curlin to run (and develop) as a 4 year old, perhaps Asmussen can be the author of a new definition of greatness, which may keep horses on the track beyond 3 years of age. As we stand, a horse wins a jewel he’s deemed 'probable great', retires. New rule: a 3 year old cannot be considered great unless they have beaten the best of the older horses…as we have seen in recent past (10 years), the best 2’s don’t necessarily become the best 3’s. The best 3 year old may only be considered best 3 year old champion.

Rackon
06-17-2008, 09:20 AM
Is it my imagination, or is Curlin a huge horse? the others looked like ponies next to him.
By allowing Curlin to run (and develop) as a 4 year old, perhaps Asmussen can be the author of a new definition of greatness, which may keep horses on the track beyond 3 years of age. As we stand, a horse wins a jewel he’s deemed 'probable great', retires. New rule: a 3 year old cannot be considered great unless they have beaten the best of the older horses…as we have seen in recent past (10 years), the best 2’s don’t necessarily become the best 3’s. The best 3 year old may only be considered best 3 year old champion.

News flash: this is not a new paradigm.

This has been the standard for decades. No new definition necessary.:bang:

Top 3 YOs generate feverish discussion and hype and speculation but by any real standards they aren't "great" without meeting older or racing beyond 3. Or maybe winning the TC. (Secretariat was truly great without racing at 4, but he won the TC AND beat older.) The rest are just very nice horses. Or top 3 YOs. Or even "very special". But not "great", and there's thousands of posts here bemoaning this very fact.

We get excited about 3 YOs because they're not around long - if they're talented and race well and show potential greatness they're usually whisked off to the breeding shed by the end of their 3 YO season. People get excited about top 3 YOs because the TC trail and the their 3 YO season is the only chance we'll get to see them race. Poof and they're gone.

Trainers would LOVE to keep their top 3 YOs in training to race at 4. But the owners can 't turn down the mega bucks. (I hate it but I can understand why.) So thank Mr. Jackson, not Asmussen, that Curlin's still around. Jackson and the unusual circumstances of Curlin's ownership.

Curlin is a big impressive boy.

Rackon
06-17-2008, 09:23 AM
I had CURLIN with the equivalent of a 115 Beyer, for what its worth...

John

John, where did you have Pyro's figure?

turfbar
06-17-2008, 09:29 AM
Is it my imagination, or is Curlin a huge horse? the others looked like ponies next to him.
By allowing Curlin to run (and develop) as a 4 year old, perhaps Asmussen can be the author of a new definition of greatness, which may keep horses on the track beyond 3 years of age. As we stand, a horse wins a jewel he’s deemed 'probable great', retires. New rule: a 3 year old cannot be considered great unless they have beaten the best of the older horses…as we have seen in recent past (10 years), the best 2’s don’t necessarily become the best 3’s. The best 3 year old may only be considered best 3 year old champion.

Your avatar is DISTURBING

Turfbar

john del riccio
06-17-2008, 08:16 PM
John, where did you have Pyro's figure?

I had PYRO running the equivalent of a 105 Beyer. I think they got both CURLIN
& PYRO's figs too low.

John

Hank
06-18-2008, 12:21 AM
Is it my imagination, or is Curlin a huge horse? the others looked like ponies next to him.
By allowing Curlin to run (and develop) as a 4 year old, perhaps Asmussen can be the author of a new definition of greatness, which may keep horses on the track beyond 3 years of age. As we stand, a horse wins a jewel he’s deemed 'probable great', retires. New rule: a 3 year old cannot be considered great unless they have beaten the best of the older horses…as we have seen in recent past (10 years), the best 2’s don’t necessarily become the best 3’s. The best 3 year old may only be considered best 3 year old champion.

He's not a forego type giant,but his powerful physique makes him appear larger than he is.

Rackon
06-18-2008, 01:00 AM
I had PYRO running the equivalent of a 105 Beyer. I think they got both CURLIN
& PYRO's figs too low.

John

Thanks...it seemed a bit low to me.

rastajenk
06-18-2008, 08:39 AM
Why? Is My Pal Charlie now a 100-Beyering animal? Were those 24+ second splits of some special consequence? Just at a glance, without looking at the whole card, I'd say a 98 is very generous.

john del riccio
06-18-2008, 09:44 AM
Why? Is My Pal Charlie now a 100-Beyering animal? Were those 24+ second splits of some special consequence? Just at a glance, without looking at the whole card, I'd say a 98 is very generous.

Maybe next time MPC or PYRO runs back, we can have a head to head matchup for a cold one ?:jump:

John

rastajenk
06-18-2008, 09:51 AM
You're on. :ThmbUp:

john del riccio
06-18-2008, 09:58 AM
You're on. :ThmbUp:

Sam Adams Summer Ale on tap !

John:jump:

joanied
06-18-2008, 11:57 AM
Sam Adams Summer Ale on tap !

John:jump:

No No....make it :jump: Bud...we grow malt barley for Budweiser :)

DeanT
06-18-2008, 12:03 PM
We've got to take that Curlin Beyer with a grain of salt, imo. He was bumped hard at the start, Robbie had him in an impossible spot down at the rail trapped, he got sand kicked in his face, as well. Terrible ride, terrible everything. Horse's can not overcome such insane bad luck and bad rides like that. I am surprised there are not 30 pages speaking of this.

Oh hold it, he won by five with his ears pricked.

Scratch that :)

joanied
06-18-2008, 12:52 PM
We've got to take that Curlin Beyer with a grain of salt, imo. He was bumped hard at the start, Robbie had him in an impossible spot down at the rail trapped, he got sand kicked in his face, as well. Terrible ride, terrible everything. Horse's can not overcome such insane bad luck and bad rides like that. I am surprised there are not 30 pages speaking of this.

Oh hold it, he won by five with his ears pricked.

Scratch that :)

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: ...to hell with the Beyer...

46zilzal
06-18-2008, 12:59 PM
Beyer numbers major problem: they do not address the start to finish intervals that are variable in the arrival of a final time.

If you don't know HOW that final time was constructed, it is useless.

rastajenk
06-18-2008, 01:01 PM
Beyers Major Advantage: they don't deal with all that hairsplitting crap.

46zilzal
06-18-2008, 01:03 PM
Beyers Major Advantage: they don't deal with all that hairsplitting crap.
That "hair splitting" crap is what it takes to understand how the race was run. Simplistic baloney to look at final time alone.

rastajenk
06-18-2008, 01:23 PM
I thought you are a major proponent of the keep it simple, the first impression is usually right, the don't clog up your brainwaves with useless junk philosophies.

Do your energy distribution numbers tell you if a horse was in traffic, loose on the lead, in a comfortable outside path, fighting the jock, not handling the track, or any of those kinds of variables? Or do you need to see trip notes, watch video over and over, and make other subjective observations? What's the difference between your approach and mine? You quantify internal factors, I quantify end results. Big deal.

46zilzal
06-18-2008, 01:27 PM
In the long run, all that subjectiveness is overblown.

The horse runs the race. The horse tells you how it runs.

cj
06-18-2008, 01:36 PM
Clearly, Beyer used a different variant for the 1 1/8 races and the 1 1/16 races. On this occasion, I think he did the right thing. I came up with Curlin a little lower and Pyro a little higher, but the gap makes sense to me. Looking at the fractions of the routes also provides some insight into what happened.