Flying Private

[abe]

Flying Private going 5 1/2 f at CD Thursday race 5. Trained by DWL. Been working good there since first part of May. He's a Fusaichi Pegasus colt out of the Unbridled mare Beautiful Treasure. Good speed and stamina on both sides. A 700k Keeneland yearling sale. :cool:

[juanepstein]

http://www.gxpmall.com/john_wayne_bobbitt.jpg

[cmoore]

He gets arrested a lot..

[juanepstein]

He gets arrested a lot..

yeah and he also had a FLYING PRIVATE.

[cmoore]

Flying Private going 5 1/2 f at CD Thursday race 5. Trained by DWL. Been working good there since first part of May. He's a Fusaichi Pegasus colt out of the Unbridled mare Beautiful Treasure. Good speed and stamina on both sides. A 700k Keeneland yearling sale. :cool:

Pegasus 1st time out at 5.5....That will be tough for him..List the sires in that race and I'll give you my opinion...That's only if you want it. Two year old mdn sprint races are my bread and butter...

[cmoore]

yeah and he also had a FLYING PRIVATE.

I just got it...I was wondering why u posted those pics..Fkn hilarious..

[Yorker]

Would like to read your analysis. Thanks.


Unbridled's Song - S. Assmussen

Medaglia D'Oro - J. Sanders up the track in both starts

Sligo Bay - A. Moore

Smoke Glacken - H. Pitts

Gilded Time - J. Gonzalez no menace first time out

Fusaichi Pegasus - DWL

El Corredor - D. Romans

Include - S. Assmussen

[sally]

ummm, I don't get the joke....:confused:

cmoore-- I'm curious to see your analysis too, if you don't mind...I'm looking at the Unbridled's Song and El Corredor sires...

[cmoore]

June 19th...Churchill Race 5....Two Year Old MSW Going 5.5 Furs

1. Unbridled Time...Sire is Unbridled's Song..Class of the field but AWD is 7.2 furlongs. Also he only has 18% of 33 wins at less then 6 furlongs. Almost twice below the avg..Asmussen is very good at races less then 6 furlongs..46% of 221 to be exact...14% better then avg..With the rail winning only 8% of 26 races at 5.5 furlongs and Unbridled most likely needing a longer distance..A ML of 5/2 seems real short..Look elsewhere.

2. Medaglia D'onore...He's been out twice and broke slow twice..Some improvement shown in 2nd start. Stretching out a 1/2 furlong should help..Could run into 3rd place, but don't hold your breath.

3. Just Like Biscuit...4 starts and one 3rd...Pass

4. Smokin' Legend...Sire is Smoke Glacken..38% of 40 wins are at less then six furlongs. 6% above avg..3rd in class in this race type. A good balance of class and speed. Pitts current meet is a slumping 1 for 24..Yikes!!!!! But my guess is 95% of those starts aren't 2 year olds. 19% for the year is also good enough to look over the current slump and consider a contender.

5. Grief...Sire is Gilded Time...49% of 45 starts have been wins at less then six furlongs. That's 17% above avg. Class is his weak point. Plus a lackluster first time out at 62-1. The trainer that has only 11 starts for the year is 0 for 6 in MSW and 0 for 4 for 2 year olds. Another angle going against is the horses workouts are not even at CD..Pass

6. Flying Private..Sire is Fusaichi Pegasus..11% of his 45 wins are at a distance less then 6 furlongs. It's possible that not many started in races less then 6 furlongs. AWD is 7.6. Lukas has a 19% win clip in 48 wins at less then 6 furs. Second lowest in available trainer data. Plus Lukas wins only half of what all other trainers do with 1st time starters in this race type..Got to Pass..

7.Lamm...Sire is El Corredor..A little bit above avg in Distance and Class. So that makes him 3rd in distance in this field. Sire as a 1st time starter is 40% better then avg. Romans is 70% better then avg with 1st time starters. Best by far. Runs neck and neck with Lukas in winners at purses over 40k. The broodmare sire also gets a very good 1st time out figure. With all that and a 27% jock/trn combination. Top contender

8. Cosimo...Sire is Include...Low percentage distance fig and a AWD of 7.1 furlongs...5.5??? Another Asmussen trained horse. But works don't light up the page and the 8 post with a horse that probably lacks early speed doesn't sit well to get my money. Pass


Workout patterns
1)...28..7..9..7..7..4
2)...13..6..7
3)...28..9
4)...6..7..7..7..7..4
5)...no works since last race...15 days off
6)..17..8..8..8..11..10
7)..6..10..8..7..7..7..7..7
8)..29..7..9..7..7..4



Top 2 contenders
4 Smokin Legend
7 Lamm

[toetoe]

Did this guy's hubcaps come off, thereby exposing his lug nuts ? Is that what warrants this overexposure ? Huh, Pee Wee ? :confused:

[cmoore]

June 19th...Churchill Race 5....Two Year Old MSW Going 5.5 Furs

1. Unbridled Time...Sire is Unbridled's Song..Class of the field but AWD is 7.2 furlongs. Also he only has 18% of 33 wins at less then 6 furlongs. Almost twice below the avg..Asmussen is very good at races less then 6 furlongs..46% of 221 to be exact...14% better then avg..With the rail winning only 8% of 26 races at 5.5 furlongs and Unbridled most likely needing a longer distance..A ML of 5/2 seems real short..Look elsewhere.

2. Medaglia D'onore...He's been out twice and broke slow twice..Some improvement shown in 2nd start. Stretching out a 1/2 furlong should help..Could run into 3rd place, but don't hold your breath.

3. Just Like Biscuit...4 starts and one 3rd...Pass

4. Smokin' Legend...Sire is Smoke Glacken..38% of 40 wins are at less then six furlongs. 6% above avg..3rd in class in this race type. A good balance of class and speed. Pitts current meet is a slumping 1 for 24..Yikes!!!!! But my guess is 95% of those starts aren't 2 year olds. 19% for the year is also good enough to look over the current slump and consider a contender.

5. Grief...Sire is Gilded Time...49% of 45 starts have been wins at less then six furlongs. That's 17% above avg. Class is his weak point. Plus a lackluster first time out at 62-1. The trainer that has only 11 starts for the year is 0 for 6 in MSW and 0 for 4 for 2 year olds. Another angle going against is the horses workouts are not even at CD..Pass

6. Flying Private..Sire is Fusaichi Pegasus..11% of his 45 wins are at a distance less then 6 furlongs. It's possible that not many started in races less then 6 furlongs. AWD is 7.6. Lukas has a 19% win clip in 48 wins at less then 6 furs. Second lowest in available trainer data. Plus Lukas wins only half of what all other trainers do with 1st time starters in this race type..Got to Pass..

7.Lamm...Sire is El Corredor..A little bit above avg in Distance and Class. So that makes him 3rd in distance in this field. Sire as a 1st time starter is 40% better then avg. Romans is 70% better then avg with 1st time starters. Best by far. Runs neck and neck with Lukas in winners at purses over 40k. The broodmare sire also gets a very good 1st time out figure. With all that and a 27% jock/trn combination. Top contender

8. Cosimo...Sire is Include...Low percentage distance fig and a AWD of 7.1 furlongs...5.5??? Another Asmussen trained horse. But works don't light up the page and the 8 post with a horse that probably lacks early speed doesn't sit well to get my money. Pass


Workout patterns
1)...28..7..9..7..7..4
2)...13..6..7
3)...28..9
4)...6..7..7..7..7..4
5)...no works since last race...15 days off
6)..17..8..8..8..11..10
7)..6..10..8..7..7..7..7..7
8)..29..7..9..7..7..4



Top 2 contenders
4 Smokin Legend
7 Lamm

Lamm finished 2nd in a dead heat. He broke dead last and lost at least 4 lengths.

[abe]

Can I pick them or not! Dead last!!! :bang:

[cmoore]

Can I pick them or not! Dead last!!! :bang:

It happens to all of us..I just can't believe they bet that one down to even money...No 2 year old 1st time starter should ever be even money..Insane..