Greatest Feeling

[singunner]

Just had a great day but didn't wanna pollute the actual handicapping board. Hit a big super early in the day that guaranteed I'd at least break even for the day (I place all my bets in the morning), so I set about the days tasks, got home and started making some chili. Sat down to eat and relax and figured I'd check ol' PTC to see how the day went (I hate checking in the middle of the day because you never know how it'll actually end). I noticed I was up about about $50.00 and figured I couldn't complain about that. Then I noticed that EVD 10 and FMT 12 were still out, so I checked who I boxed in those two races. I figured either of those coming in would make it a nice day. Then when I checked back, FMT 12 had come in, getting me about $50 on the 10-cent super. Clicked over to EVD 10, which just came in giving me another 75ish, putting me up over $200 for the day after $30 in rebates.

I should note I'm boxing 5 horses, so it's not really that amazing, just was nice to hit both of those when I was thinking how great just one would be.:)

[newtothegame]

Just had a great day but didn't wanna pollute the actual handicapping board. Hit a big super early in the day that guaranteed I'd at least break even for the day (I place all my bets in the morning), so I set about the days tasks, got home and started making some chili. Sat down to eat and relax and figured I'd check ol' PTC to see how the day went (I hate checking in the middle of the day because you never know how it'll actually end). I noticed I was up about about $50.00 and figured I couldn't complain about that. Then I noticed that EVD 10 and FMT 12 were still out, so I checked who I boxed in those two races. I figured either of those coming in would make it a nice day. Then when I checked back, FMT 12 had come in, getting me about $50 on the 10-cent super. Clicked over to EVD 10, which just came in giving me another 75ish, putting me up over $200 for the day after $30 in rebates.

I should note I'm boxing 5 horses, so it's not really that amazing, just was nice to hit both of those when I was thinking how great just one would be.:)


congrats...winner is a winner.!!!!!!!!

[raybo]

I should note I'm boxing 5 horses, so it's not really that amazing, just was nice to hit both of those when I was thinking how great just one would be.:)

Do you really box 5 horses on your supers? Can you not pick the winner with less than 5 horses? That would cut your ticket costs dramatically or allow for more coverage on the more difficult rows, 3rd and 4th. I have had good success for several years using a box/wheel ticket structure, usually with one horse to win, possibly 2, and rarely 3. Then wheeling/boxing that/those win horses on the other 3 lines along with my other contenders/possibles. My typical ticket: 1 w 2 3 w 2 3 4 5 w 2 3 4 5 6 7, (depending on the field size, horses running, pool size, odds spread on 1st and 2nd row horses (the higher this spread is, the more horses I am justified in putting on the ticket)).

[cmoore]

Just had a great day but didn't wanna pollute the actual handicapping board. Hit a big super early in the day that guaranteed I'd at least break even for the day (I place all my bets in the morning), so I set about the days tasks, got home and started making some chili. Sat down to eat and relax and figured I'd check ol' PTC to see how the day went (I hate checking in the middle of the day because you never know how it'll actually end). I noticed I was up about about $50.00 and figured I couldn't complain about that. Then I noticed that EVD 10 and FMT 12 were still out, so I checked who I boxed in those two races. I figured either of those coming in would make it a nice day. Then when I checked back, FMT 12 had come in, getting me about $50 on the 10-cent super. Clicked over to EVD 10, which just came in giving me another 75ish, putting me up over $200 for the day after $30 in rebates.

I should note I'm boxing 5 horses, so it's not really that amazing, just was nice to hit both of those when I was thinking how great just one would be.:)

Goodjob...I've seen some real big 10 cents super payouts before..Keep at it...I need to start playing them more....

[singunner]

Maybe I should have put this in the handicapping forum :P

I did a statistical analysis of 3 years of data with the system I designed, and boxing horses was just the easiest thing that came to mind. It spits out a prediction for the race and blindly bets, regardless of odds. Using a 4-horse box gets the highest ROI, but that ticket costs 5 times less than a 5-horse box. I figured to maximize the actual money I see, I'd go with the 5-horse. I believe a 6-horse also got a decent ROI, but I'd have to go back and check my old outputs.

Right now, I'm trying to maximize the amount of money I spend to get a better rebate, and there's the added benefit of fewer losing streaks with a 5-horse box. I just bet every race that has a super and I have sufficient data on.

I like your idea, but it sounds kind of painful to test. Anything where the price of my ticket changes based on field size is a good day of reprogramming.

Then again, since it's real money now instead of my 3 years of play money, a little reprogramming might be in order. Any more suggestions on the supers? The main restriction is that I prefer to place all my bets at once in the morning, and I wager every race I can, so nothing odds-related, and ideally nothing that takes much longer than clicking "box" followed by 5 horses and "queue bet".

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe I should have put this in the handicapping forum :PThat can be arranged.....(insert sinister laughter here).

[singunner]

I just wanted to bask in a good day for a moment, but if you want to turn this into a real discussion, I'm all ears. I was fiddling with the insides of my program before I even posted my last reply. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

I just wanted to bask in a good day for a moment, but if you want to turn this into a real discussion, I'm all ears. I was fiddling with the insides of my program before I even posted my last reply. :DIt's completely up to you. I'm just pointing out that if you did want to move the thread, I would be happy to do so...the option is all yours.

[raybo]

Maybe I should have put this in the handicapping forum :P

I did a statistical analysis of 3 years of data with the system I designed, and boxing horses was just the easiest thing that came to mind. It spits out a prediction for the race and blindly bets, regardless of odds. Using a 4-horse box gets the highest ROI, but that ticket costs 5 times less than a 5-horse box. I figured to maximize the actual money I see, I'd go with the 5-horse. I believe a 6-horse also got a decent ROI, but I'd have to go back and check my old outputs.

Right now, I'm trying to maximize the amount of money I spend to get a better rebate, and there's the added benefit of fewer losing streaks with a 5-horse box. I just bet every race that has a super and I have sufficient data on.

I like your idea, but it sounds kind of painful to test. Anything where the price of my ticket changes based on field size is a good day of reprogramming.

Then again, since it's real money now instead of my 3 years of play money, a little reprogramming might be in order. Any more suggestions on the supers? The main restriction is that I prefer to place all my bets at once in the morning, and I wager every race I can, so nothing odds-related, and ideally nothing that takes much longer than clicking "box" followed by 5 horses and "queue bet".

My Excel Spreadsheet is designed to handicap the race, look at the possibility of ties or close to ties in my grading system, assign the horses to the proper spots on my ticket, and calculate the cost of the ticket. I turned a $400 account into $7700 in approximately 4 months betting the spreadsheet tickets without regard to post time odds, however, I was being picky on the types of races I wagered and did some verification of what running lines the program was using as the grading race for each horse.

I got lazy and overconfident, because my running line selection system was working so well, and stopped doing the verification process, resulting in a long losing streak. I got frustrated, started doubting the program and my own handicapping abilities and took a year off from wagering. I have subsequently "re-entered the fray", with more discipline, regarding the verification process, and am doing well again.

I guess, in short, I believe there should be some human input in the final decision, rather than blindly betting as you have been doing. But then, if it's working, might as well ride it 'til it quits.

[singunner]

I have turned 600 into almost 1000, then down to 280, now back to 500 over 2 weeks. The results fit neatly within the variance of my program's prior results, and there's no guarantee 600 will be enough to cover my longest losing streak. I have a day-job and have always approached this whole thing from a purely scientific view, so if I can't bet every race and do it in under 30 minutes every morning, it won't fit my style.

Before I succumbed to fatigue last night, I tested your suggested wager build and a couple others, but a 5-horse or 4-horse box just seemed to give me the most predictable, consistent results (not necessarily the best ROI).

I'm actually using horse racing to try and prove my abilities as a program designer to get some venture capital to hire a couple programmers to work with on other projects (horse racing isn't the only program I'm working on for said purposes, it's just the one that has taken the longest). I really expected to be done with this about 6 months ago, which I guess attests to the difficulty of the game.

Thanks for your suggestions Raybo. They didn't work within my limitations, but I'm sure if I was able to follow your advice to the T, it'd improve my returns.

[raybo]

I have turned 600 into almost 1000, then down to 280, now back to 500 over 2 weeks. The results fit neatly within the variance of my program's prior results, and there's no guarantee 600 will be enough to cover my longest losing streak. I have a day-job and have always approached this whole thing from a purely scientific view, so if I can't bet every race and do it in under 30 minutes every morning, it won't fit my style.

Before I succumbed to fatigue last night, I tested your suggested wager build and a couple others, but a 5-horse or 4-horse box just seemed to give me the most predictable, consistent results (not necessarily the best ROI).

I'm actually using horse racing to try and prove my abilities as a program designer to get some venture capital to hire a couple programmers to work with on other projects (horse racing isn't the only program I'm working on for said purposes, it's just the one that has taken the longest). I really expected to be done with this about 6 months ago, which I guess attests to the difficulty of the game.

Thanks for your suggestions Raybo. They didn't work within my limitations, but I'm sure if I was able to follow your advice to the T, it'd improve my returns.

No problem, you're not the first, nor will you be the last, person on this forum to not want to spend some extra time using their brain power before wagering with computer generated picks. I hope you keep your ROI in the black forever with your approach, but I have my doubts. The cost of a 5 horse box ticket is pretty hard to overcome without, at least, making sure when you hit that the payout will be substantial, enough in the long run to cover all your losses. Good luck, though.