Da' Tara Should Have Been 3-5 In Belmont

[Lose The Juice]

How everyone missed this amazing, obvious standout is simply beyond me.

Let's face it: the first thing everyone should do when handicapping the Belmont Stakes is to look for horses still eligible for NW1 OT allowance races. This is elementary stuff.

One should also endeavor, when the track is fast, to look for horses who have never won on a fast track. In this regard, Da' Tara stands out, though of course Guadalcanal is a dual qualifier as per above.

But what is really important here is the hoss' last race, and Da' Tara's last was a doozy. He got an open lead in a five-horse field -- an almost certain doomsday scenario -- and he knocked out a half-mile in an almost unprecedentedly fast (wait for it...) 47.4. Little wonder Roman Emperor beat him; Secretariat himself couldn't have withstood such withering pressure.

And let's not forget breeding; the dam's sire is the redoubtable Pirate's Bounty, who before shipping in to Lefty Nickerson's barn in New York back in the day, won, IIRC, several races at grueling distances like 6 and perhaps even 6 and one-half furlongs... we're talking but a mere 12-odd furlongs shorter than the fargin' Display Handicap, may it rest in peace.

Notably, when Da' Tara broke his maiden at Gulfstream, the horse finished up with a final eighth in a blinding 13:4, the thoroughbred equivalent of a Nolan Ryan 105 mph fastball.

Man, this was cake. Da' Tara is, straight and simple, an immortal. I can hardly wait to see him in NW2 OT, maybe even NW3 if he ever reaches those dizzying heights.

What a marvelous Belmont it was. My only regret is that it wasn't run on the Aqueduct inner-dirt course.

[Citation33]

Ha is this a joke or serious?Cmon before the race Da'Tara was a standout? Even before knowing Big Brown ran out? Stand out over Denis or even Casino if he ran? If there was any pace Da'Tara would've finished 6th or so. They just stole it. Pat Day and Commendable was'nt a stand out either. Rob Lapenta has alot of money and likes being in stakes races.

[Lose The Juice]

Perhaps you missed the point. ;)

[Citation33]

Yeah its a joke. That's why I asked if it was or not. You never know. Funny though.

[46zilzal]

IF you evaluated the horse on the marked improvement in the last, this colt was a strong contender. That's why Rverge and T.C. had him at our website. I watched.

[Lose The Juice]

Yep, as I said. Stone obvious and crystal clear... fargin' PELLUCID.

Yeah.

[highnote]

The great thing about handicapping after the race is how easy it is to spot the winner.

In fact, it's so easy that I would bet every thing I own if I could bet after the race! :)

[DeanT]

Hilarious stuff LTJ.

Makes all our chatter about making excuses for Big Brown - rides and all the rest - look silly.

Funny post.

[46zilzal]

The great thing about handicapping after the race is how easy it is to spot the winner.

In fact, it's so easy that I would bet every thing I own if I could bet after the race! :)
That chart was the same last Saturday as it is today and that is why several fellows who use Sartin cashed.

http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binder/forums/showthread.php?t=4022&page=2

Post #16 amonst others.

or http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/SartinAlums/message/7250

[njcurveball]

That chart was the same last Saturday as it is today and that is why several fellows who use Sartin cashed.

.


Kudos to everyone there, especially Froggy! If I was marketing RDSS, he would have been on every news channel on Sunday!

Excellent analysis and shame he didn't make at least a few years wages with that opinion and those prices! :ThmbUp:

[Lose The Juice]

Gee, how could anyone have even THOUGHT of betting against Big Brown, since he was owned by a syndicate put together by Extremely Prestigious Investment Bankers Who Worked For Extremely Prestigious I-Banking Houses And Graduated From Extremely Prestigious Business Schools And Was Otherwise In Every Way Himself Extremely Prestigious Just Like His Extremely Prestigious Claiming Trainer LionsTigersBearsOhMy!

Marvelous race coverage, too... I liked the juxtaposition of Secretariat with Nixon footage, and the stupid-ass portentous voice-over... IN A WORLD GONE WRONG, THERE WAS A HORSE WHO DID EVERYTHING RIGHT.

Christ, what bullshit.

[46zilzal]

Forggy wasn't alone.
http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binder/forums/showthread.php?t=4022

message #2.

[njcurveball]

Forggy wasn't alone.
http://scott.asmallorange.com/~binder/forums/showthread.php?t=4022

message #2.

I think you are on self prescribed drugs? I would never compare a readout with 3 contenders including the top 2 finishers with one listing almost the entire field with multiple pacelines.

I know your love in life is redboarding, but you need to take a class. You show TWO pacelines for Da Tara. One has the horse with the best total energy, the other has the horse a non contender. Same drill with Ready. One paceline puts the horse there, the other one makes him next to last.

You have to take a stance in this game. You have to at least get down to 4 or 5 contenders. Given your readout, Denis of Cork was 8th and the other 2 horses in the trifecta were 9th and 10th. You basically had the race covered unless the maiden or another non contender won.



I think we need to rename your figures Ability 46Z! :lol:

[46zilzal]

As Bradshaw was fond of saying: There are no rules. One uses multiple lines to see form cycles. Some of us do not choose to use the hide function. That evaluation was for win only: construction of exotics takes even more line review.

The date at the bottom of that screen says it occurred as a pre-race analysis, just like the other people there.

posted elsewhere:http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/SartinAlums/message/7228

It is only the MUSTER-baters of the world that need exactly the same method for each race...Ring a bell?

[njcurveball]

The date at the bottom of that screen says it occurred as a pre-race analysis, just like the other people there.



Congrats on tossing the maiden and the other horse in the 3rd place dead heat. I guess you want props for your great contender selection? :lol:

Next time, just walk up to the cashier, show him that screen and I am sure you will be rich beyond your wildest dreams. I am unfortunately in NJ and cannot afford to box every horse in the computer and have to come up with an opinion BEFORE the race.

[Lose The Juice]

Yep, a hoss coming off a crappy 5-horse quasi-stakes race on the Preakness undercard in which he crawled to the half on an open lead and still got himself solidly beat by a tertiary three-year-old at a much shorter distance was really QUITE THE BET, if you just ignore about 113% of the reasonable and reliable information out there.I have no problem with people who tossed out Big Brown, as I did... no great feat there, that one had trouble written all over it. But the NW1 eligible? Puh-leeze.

[46zilzal]

But the NW1 eligible? Puh-leeze.
Only the humans know that. The horse simply runs and in this case improved dramatically ignorant of what class it ran in. Point A to point B in a strongly improved effort.

[Lose The Juice]

One is tempted to ask if you yourself picked this extraordinary animal to win.

[46zilzal]

One is tempted to ask if you yourself picked this extraordinary animal to win.
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/SartinAlums/message/7228
did not like the favorite as being very vulnerable.

[Lose The Juice]

Yes, and you can't kill a bear with a water pistol. A lot of us out there didn't like "the favorite", as you put it.

Did your magical numbers guide you to this wonderful Belmont winner?

[46zilzal]

Yes, anyone with this program got the same results.

[Lose The Juice]

In English, please... like, "words" and "sentences"... that type of shit.

[46zilzal]

In English, please... like, "words" and "sentences"... that type of shit.

Funny in over 25 years of using these programs they have never said a word to me. One evaluates similar pace lines and then matches them up to one another through three fractional velocities.

[Overlay]

I couldn't make a case for putting Da' Tara on top, but (as it should in any race) it came down to betting value, rather than just which horse was most likely to win. I don't think Da' Tara was anybody's 3-5 shot, but at 38-1 he was more than a 400% overlay by my line.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47558

[Lose The Juice]

Why?

[Overlay]

I figured he could be well-placed early; had demonstrated the heart, stamina, and current condition to get the distance; and would get a trip from his jockey that would take advantage of those attributes. (Again, not my top choice, but better than his odds suggested, especially compared to Big Brown's price.)

[Lose The Juice]

What "stamina"? He had one win, that on an off track, and in his last race, he curled after holding on open lead on a slow pace in a five-horse race. What "heart"? What "current condition"?

46zilzal, at the beginning of your 25 years of "using these programs", did the programs point up a lot of those ubiquitous winning Oscar Barrera claims?

[Overlay]

What "stamina"? He had one win, that on an off track, and in his last race, he curled after holding on open lead on a slow pace in a five-horse race. What "heart"? What "current condition"?

Winning efforts aren't the only races that count (at least to me) in evaluating a horse's condition and potential. Also, I go by running style and and recency as much as (or even more) than raw times or figures. As far as I was concerned, this was an improving horse, especially one that figured to run better than his odds.