Economic goons keep pounding away, but data keeps saying otherwise

[PaceAdvantage]

A recession means a reversal of economic growth. That happens partly because people stop buying as much, because they've lost their jobs, or they fear losing their jobs.

This so-called recession has been reported to have started in October of 2007, and yet, the consumer has not stopped spending. Maybe that's because, unlike all past recessions, there hasn't been massive job loss.

Obviously, somebody isn't telling the truth here, and the data continues to point the finger at the goons as the liars.

Retail Sales are Flat-Out Strong

The announced death of the consumer was once again premature. May retail sales jumped 1.0%. Excluding gasoline sales (impacted by price), the increase was a still very strong 0.8%. The total excluding auto sales was 1.2%, as auto sales once again lowered the total figure.

The April changes were also revised sharply higher. Total retail sales were revised to an increase of 1.0% from an originally reported 0.5%, and excluding autos the increase is now at 0.4% from an originally reported -0.2%.

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080612084722HeadlineHits

[ddog]

You were doing SO well, congrats, right up until the Obviously part.

They can be both true.
If you and the brief.boys can only look back you will miss what's right in front of you.

[PaceAdvantage]

So, what you're saying is, that unlike past recessions, where big job losses were the norm at the beginning, and consumer spending goes down the toilet, this time it's different?

This recession has been going on (according to some reports) for 8+ months, and we still haven't seen any substantial "recession-like" numbers from the key indicators?

Whatever it is I'm not "getting," please spell it out for me. If you have already done so, and I somehow missed it, please provide the link.

[ddog]

I don't think it will do much good.

I am not trying to imply you are not getting anything.

And, I could be wrong, but I am not playing it that way.

Why not switch sides and argue the "for R" case?

You see nothing that could fit?

[ddog]

http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlookMid08/idUSN1123454920080611

I didn't hear the remarks, but I assume this was faithfully reported.

[ddog]

http://bp1.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SFEvBXgZAgI/AAAAAAAACIo/6AsdQ1naKPM/s1600-h/RetailMay08.jpg


YOY down 0.8.

where is all that free money at anyway?
not much bang for the big giveaway showing , yet.
Maybe IRS can't get any checks out?

[ddog]

ignore the silly dim pug labels on the graph, just look at the year and totals.

yep, great job growth there , tons to shed at first sign of death.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/11/job-creation/

[ddog]

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080520&id=8671036

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/09/AR2008060902645.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f6d4e42c-f48c-11dc-aaad-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=htt p%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Ff6d4e42c-f48c-11dc-aaad-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F 2008%2F03%2Fsystemic-risk-from-outsized-fannie-and.html

read the article, it's right on.

now foolishly we will allow/push to have the GSE's handle 90% or mtg loans.

A sure recipe for disaster all over again.

STOP, come to your senses, at least what little you may have.

[robert99]

So, what you're saying is, that unlike past recessions, where big job losses were the norm at the beginning, and consumer spending goes down the toilet, this time it's different?

This recession has been going on (according to some reports) for 8+ months, and we still haven't seen any substantial "recession-like" numbers from the key indicators?

Whatever it is I'm not "getting," please spell it out for me. If you have already done so, and I somehow missed it, please provide the link.

PA,

I think things are very different from a normal past recession and IF the recession occurs, it will be a slow and messy process.

US is now a 80% service economy with many jobs outsourced either at home or overseas. These jobs are more difficult to track than large industrial factories of the past closing down and hundreds going on a Friday in one town.

The potential recession is not due to any lack of demand, nor lack of investment by companies - that was all going very well until the very peculiar circumstances of the credit crunch realisation. In the past, demand slumped or inflation got out of control - not that way today.

FED has reacted very quickly with record breaking drops in interest rate. Massive taxation returns. China goods imports still extremely cheap. Many home owners are not effected by the housing crash and still working as per normal. Many companies are cash rich, still selling at high mark ups and can ride out things for a good while. Wage inflation hardly exists. Many in service jobs still retained as their specialist work still needs to be done. Dollar weak and oil price very high. People that are now hard up are borrowing to limit on credit cards or mortgaging their pension savings etc. Being stuck in an election year limbo with Government in deep debt is not helping things to get fixed.

These new reality factors distort the old style recession type progress and signals.

So the real truth seems to be that few economists working on past and irrelevant scenarios have any understanding of the current real issues as to how they might lead to actual recession or to a narrow miss.

If you keep watching the kettle boil, it won't.
Then it boils dry.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/21811/wheres-this-long-awaited-recession.html

[46zilzal]

Sinking ships even at FOUR BILLION profits!!
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/06/12/exxon.mobil/index.html

[sammy the sage]

""These new reality factors distort the old style recession type progress and signals. ""

P.A....you're defining Recession by...(another analogy...I know you LOVE them)...by Windows 95 computer technology.

I believe Vista is now the CURRENT one...the ECONOMY...and MEASURE'S there-of are along the SAME lines!

Perhaps that will get you to think OUTSIDE the BOX you've put yourself IN! :bang:

[Valuist]

The retail numbers are a joke. Here's an objective view on them from the Street.coM:

http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html#1604855477

[Valuist]

Just saw this tidbit on MSN Money: the S & P 500 index is on track to have its worst decade since the Depression. No problems there!

[ddog]

here's a guy who in my opinion is finally catching up to the curve....

You see one can't inflate your suppliers for years with hot money and not see that hot money come back at you one day.

fryers to roost anyone.....

rebuttals........???


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a7957366-387c-11dd-8aed-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=htt p%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fa7957366-387c-11dd-8aed-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fbigpicture.typepad.com%2F

[Lose The Juice]

Where are the two straight quarters of negative economic growth?


Where is ONE, for that matter?

[ddog]

you got a lot of catching up to do.

get to it.

:)

[Lose The Juice]

"You've", but nice try.

[PaceAdvantage]

""These new reality factors distort the old style recession type progress and signals. ""

P.A....you're defining Recession by...(another analogy...I know you LOVE them)...by Windows 95 computer technology.

I believe Vista is now the CURRENT one...the ECONOMY...and MEASURE'S there-of are along the SAME lines!

Perhaps that will get you to think OUTSIDE the BOX you've put yourself IN! :bang:Different from 2001? How did we define recession in 2001?

How do we define recession today?

[Valuist]

I buy into the argument that things are worse now than in 2001. Why? Because back then, most of the economic problems were limited to one sector (tech) and for the most part, one area of the country. Rising food and energy prices affect everybody.

[Lose The Juice]

9/10/01 was followed by 9/12/01, right?

[robert99]

Recession goons not liars - shock! :eek:

USA now officially in recession - what would we do without economists and their telling us that secret in February 2009. Talk about after-timers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Being on the right side of the fence, how did you benefit? Just curious...

[ddog]

somethings one just can't measure with money, all the best things in life are free or something like that....

;)

[robert99]

Being on the right side of the fence, how did you benefit? Just curious...

Suspect not many have benefited overall:

Cashed in all stocks but kept in £ as I judged the $ would tank again - so right move but a theoretical loss against $. Moved late into Swiss Francs and Norwegian Krone.

Shorted the Dow at 8000 but it expired 3 months before Dow reached that level - lost.

Illiquid savings in pension funds - theoretical loss some 30%

Illiquid investments in London housing - theoretical asset loss of 18% and falling, but hanging on.

UK bank shares loss 90% - did not guess they had anywhere near so much in derivatives and leverage.

So lots of devalued assets and cash that could take years to recover.