so you want to buy a handicapping system!

[formula_2002]

If you are serious about betting and want to buy a handicapping system then the key question one MUST ask of anyone selling a handicapping program is;

“ Have the results claimed, been statistically validated by a certified a statistician.”

.
If so, present certified validation documents, and a statement that the results were not back fitted.


If you insist on this, it will prove P.T. Barnum’s postulate true; ”You can never cheat an honest man”. And that man is you…


Note:
To the best of my knowledge, Phillip’s doesn’t test the handicapping programs statically.

Joe M

[Dave Schwartz]

Joe,

And who would be the certifier? I know of nobody that is "certified" as a "certifier."

Should this apply to pick services as well?

I mean no disrespect to you but you post non-stop about your pick history... how is it that we "know" that the results you show are "real?"


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[formula_2002]

Dave:

a certified person could be an actuary.

Results of a search.

"An actuary is a business professional who analyzes the financial consequences of risk. Actuaries use mathematics, statistics, and financial theory to study uncertain future events, especially those of concern to insurance and pension programs. Actuaries may work for insurance companies, consulting firms, government, employee benefits departments of large corporations, hospitals, banks and investment firms, or, more generally, in businesses that need to manage financial risk. A career as an Actuary is better described as a "business" career with a mathematical basis than as a "technical" mathematical career"

Yes it should apply to selection services also.


I'm in the midst of an ongoing study and dont charge anything for my picks, reports and other handicappying efforts.

I try to make it quit clear that the picks are based upon backfitted
data, and update the new data about once a month.

Perhaps someday I'll get it all certified.
Then I'll have to charge

[Tom]

I am not certified, but I am certifiable.
Send me you systems and I'll hold them to my forehead and give you a rating. If the voices in my head all agree, we give it and 8.
If half agree, we give it a 4. I will do this for $500 a system, and I will guarantee you that I will spend evey dollar, or you can send me double the fee.
Limite time offer.

[so.cal.fan]

Now, Tom?
Do you do the stock market, as well?
Most of us aren't desperate for handicapping systems but the stocks..................we are desperate.....your offer sounds good to me!

[tcat]

Why buy a system, since there free ones out there that are doing very well?

I thought the days of having to buy a system were long gone.

The way it is done nowadays, is to pay just for the downloads. If you buy some software do you have pay for downloads too?

[Doug]

TOM WROTE,

I am not certified, but I am certifiable.

With ONLY 8 voices no wonder you are not certified.

I can help.

Doug

[Dave Schwartz]

Formula,

First, thanks for not taking offense at my comment as none was meant.

I certainly understand what the "C" in CPA stands for but the reality of contracting with a CPA to handicap races (or even to monitor your handicapping) for a "significant sample" is beyond the reach of most system/pick/software sellers.

I actually agree with you but what is needed is an unbiased testing organization. And the real problem for vendors is that the majority of the stuff put forth does not work UNTIL THE USER PUTS SOME OF HIS OWN MAGIC INTO IT. That means that the majority of vendors will be afraid to give their stuff to an organization to test and the organization will quickly go out of business.

This business of "adding their own magic" is something I have seen again and again. I absolutely know some people who make good livings at the races using a highly systemized, slightly artful approach. Yet, when I apply their systems, they do not work as well (or at all) for me. And, vice-versa; my stuff does not work as well for them.

I believe that if someone is looking for a truly systematic approach that works, they need to build it for themselves. And I think that includes pick services as well. If you are going to buy picks, chart them and mix them with your own handicapping. Track where they do well and where they fall down. And then compare it to your own approach, trying to discover (for example) what happens when their top pick is poor in your system.

Many "serious" horseplayers seem to disdain picks from pick services (and often the pickers themselves). I have never understood this beyond the obvious quote: "if they are so good why would they sell them?" (a question that comes with a myriad of good answers, I might add).

Yet, if one simply looks at picks as a "high level factor," where is the problem in purchasing an effective factor? I think the problem is that most purchasers have unrealistic expectations... they expect to buy picks that will do it all for them with no work on their part whatsoever.

Just my opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[formula_2002]

Dave:

"I think the problem is that most purchasers have unrealistic expectations... they expect to buy picks that will do it all for them with no work on their part whatsoever.""
Thats the bigger part of it.

Tom:
Thanks for stirring everone up..very funny!!!
I'll certify to that..I'm still laughing...


Joe M

[Dave Schwartz]

Tom,

Welcome back. <G>

You know, even if you do give up horse racing, you shouldn't give up PA. <G>

Dave