My Conclusion about potential Triple Crown winners

[LemonSoupKid]

This was the first year, besides Smarty Jones, where I thought the stars were aligned. The best horse, inferior competition, and common handcapping skills all led to the same conclusion. What's the difference? Yes, Smarty lost down the stretch, but he actually RAN the race, and just happened to be off, use up too much energy early, or something abstract. But he was ready for the race inasmuch as he could be. Big Brown clearly wasn't. Why?

Well, what's changed? More speed breeding (I didn't think War Emblem had any chance and I liked Empire Maker more than Funny Cide). More lightly raced horses. Soft treatment of the horses.

My conclusion is this: I'll never go with another horse vying for the Triple Crown if he doesn't have a 2 year old foundation. Look at the dominating Preakness and Belmont performances of Afleet Alex and Point Given. These two both ran in the Derby, and both were absolutely scintillating in the next two races. They raced 3 times in 5 weeks and won GOING AWAY at Belmont. What did they have going for them? Well, one thing is that they both got 2nd in the BC Juvenile and were outstanding two year olds with a good foundation of races. I've heard others say that until ~10 races horses don't get into their own and really understand what it's all about. I think Curlin is proving this principle, being the best in the world right now although he was super solid younger horse.

Smarty also raced as a two year old. The foundation must be there. The way things are going though, it'll be rare that we see these types, and that leads me to believe the drought will in fact be longer than we think. It's frustrating.

LemonSoupKid

[ghostyapper]

I still contend that afleet alex was the closest triple crown winner we have had since real quiet. Had he had room in the derby to make his patented move on the far turn, he would have won by 4-5 lengths. Now you can also say there would have been more pressure on rose in the belmont and maybe he wouldn't have given him as good a ride with all that pressure but he was much the best in that race. And this was a horse that showed up at all the big races as a 2yo, sanford, hopeful, champagne, bc.

[Johannesburg]

Point Given also had a good chance and definately had the Talent. Matter of fact he almost did a 5-5 deal as he went on to win the Haskell and Travers. Gary Stevens gave him a horrible ride in the derby riding him in the middle of the track where that day it was completely dead.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Afleet Alex, Curlin, and Smarty Jones all have a very common background. They all began their jump into stakes competition by winning The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. All three went on to win the Arkansas Derby.

Excellent production for the track in the nations Spa City tucked neatly among the beautiful Ouachita Mountains. Owners and trainers have belatedly discovered that Hot Springs has an excellent spring time climate and racing atmosphere that now will most always attract the nations top 3 year olds.

Oaklawn owner Charles Cella was told by the experts ten years ago that his rinkydink track would not survive the corporate blitz to buy up racing. Now who's laughing all the way to the bank?

The Cella family has owned Oaklawn Park since its 1904 inception.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[ghostyapper]

Afleet Alex, Curlin, and Smarty Jones all have a very common background.

Alex was running in and winning stakes long before he got to arkansas

[lamboguy]

in recent years the level of competion at oaklawn has been superb. i bet you that assmussen wishes he ran pyro in oaklawn instead of keeneland.

so far this 3 yo crop has done nothing but rise and fall fast. i would hate to be the guy putting up the money to breed this big brown.


mike iverone, the genious that he is, make one great move sticking that horse to a paying customer. give him credit, he hyped a turf horse, got lucky and got the money

[kenwoodallpromos]

The big shot horsemen seem to want to keep the 3-in-5-weeks Grade 1 TC schedule as is, ending with a 1 1/2 mile race.
As good as the 3 1970's TC champs were, it was still a fluke to get m3 during those years. Maybe we should look to see if anything was different during the 1973-1978 time period?

[Greyfox]

I still contend that afleet alex was the closest triple crown winner we have had since real quiet. .


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: I totally agree. Young Jeremy Rose used Alex too early in Derby and subsequently ran out of gas coming down the lane. In the next two races, he had lots of horse. It's a shame that Afleet Alex didn't capture the Triple Crown.
It's also a shame that Real Quiet's bid was ruined by Desormeaux who chirped too early. The question that crosses my mind is did he even "chirp" at all with Big Brown? He says he did and there was nothing left. We'll never know.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The big shot horsemen seem to want to keep the 3-in-5-weeks Grade 1 TC schedule as is, ending with a 1 1/2 mile race.
As good as the 3 1970's TC champs were, it was still a fluke to get m3 during those years. Maybe we should look to see if anything was different during the 1973-1978 time period? Like lack of competition or general predictability based on winning odds?:
1979 0.60
1978 1.80
1977 0.50
1976 3.00
1975 1.98
1974 1.50
1973 1.50
1972 1.50

[sandpit]

Alex was running in and winning stakes long before he got to arkansas

Ditto for Smarty Jones.

[ghostyapper]

Ditto for Smarty Jones.

Graded stakes, not statebred races and a non graded race at aqueduct.

[46zilzal]

You have to be good and LUCKY. Riva caught a bad track, Swale had one bad race in the heat at Baltimore, Canonero, Majestic Prince, Pleasant Colony, Tim Tam, Risen Star ...you have to be lucky and good.

[Cratos]

This was the first year, besides Smarty Jones, where I thought the stars were aligned. The best horse, inferior competition, and common handcapping skills all led to the same conclusion. What's the difference? Yes, Smarty lost down the stretch, but he actually RAN the race, and just happened to be off, use up too much energy early, or something abstract. But he was ready for the race inasmuch as he could be. Big Brown clearly wasn't. Why?

Well, what's changed? More speed breeding (I didn't think War Emblem had any chance and I liked Empire Maker more than Funny Cide). More lightly raced horses. Soft treatment of the horses.

My conclusion is this: I'll never go with another horse vying for the Triple Crown if he doesn't have a 2 year old foundation. Look at the dominating Preakness and Belmont performances of Afleet Alex and Point Given. These two both ran in the Derby, and both were absolutely scintillating in the next two races. They raced 3 times in 5 weeks and won GOING AWAY at Belmont. What did they have going for them? Well, one thing is that they both got 2nd in the BC Juvenile and were outstanding two year olds with a good foundation of races. I've heard others say that until ~10 races horses don't get into their own and really understand what it's all about. I think Curlin is proving this principle, being the best in the world right now although he was super solid younger horse.

Smarty also raced as a two year old. The foundation must be there. The way things are going though, it'll be rare that we see these types, and that leads me to believe the drought will in fact be longer than we think. It's frustrating.

LemonSoupKid

Funny Cide on a fast track in my opinion had the best chance of the recent horses who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown to win the TC. Smarty Jones and Big Brown were over-hyped horses with catchy names that caught the fancy of the media, but their on track performances do not bespeak of greatness. However Big Brown if kept in training will have the opportunity to prove me wrong.

[keithw84]

Afleet Alex, Curlin, and Smarty Jones all have a very common background. They all began their jump into stakes competition by winning The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. All three went on to win the Arkansas Derby.

I thought Afleet Alex did poorly in the Rebel Stakes.

[46zilzal]

I thought Afleet Alex did poorly in the Rebel Stakes.
He was sick before the Arkansas Derby and that was well documented.

[OTM Al]

Sick before the Rebel. That was the one Johnny V was up for when he stopped and finished last. Rose was back on for the Ark. Derby win. Had he stayed away from that lunatic early pace of the Derby, he MAY have been able to win that one. He was very good

[Gallop58]

I took a look back in the historical record and it seems to me that the triple is pretty hard and you need luck, but that what we are seeing now seems to be about the same as what we've seen since this started. Lots of near misses, dry spells, etc.. A head bob here, a better start there, some different tactics and would we be having this conversation? I think any changes to the format would be sad.

[MickJ26]

Birdstone was no slouch. Birdstone won the Champagne at 2 and also came back to take the Travers. Smarty Jones just got run down by a fresh, dangerous horse. And Dutrow had the nerve to criticize Smarty's connections.

[Lose The Juice]

Gee, d'ya think medication might have something to do with it? Most of these horses popped up with Lasix in their first starts and have run with it ever since.
Who the hell knows what's being masked there? The DRF should publish hemoglobins and hematocrits on these horses rather than wasting time with such outmoded stuff as fractions, breeding and speed figs.

[ceejay]

My conclusion is this: I'll never go with another horse vying for the Triple Crown if he doesn't have a 2 year old foundation.
Point well taken. That's why I stayed off BB in the Derby at 5/2.