Saturday 6/7 Longshot Picks

[Ray2000]

Some 3 horse boxes with ML on Pick 1 > 7

Hoosier R8...529 Snappy Sport 10/1 Cam Bam Viking 8/1 Samstorm 6/1
Keeps going faster but has trouble facing 12K claimers, should be an overlay

Hazel Park R5...427 Bonus Miles 8/1 First Battalion 9/2 Jatelo 3/1
3 starts, coming into form, 6 for 36 in 2007

Mohawk R13…624 Kaos Agent 12/1 Ruthless Ace 8/1 Dedalos 7/2
Conditions written for the favorite (4) so how's the 3 and 5 get in here? Bribes?
The 6 put up a new LTM in last and could hit the board again at a higher class

The BigM R3…462 Viking Smaug 8/1 Kentucky Rebel 6/1 Fenman 3/1
Big step up but racing well, now has Morrill, Good BigM mark last year

The BigM R10…624 J K Cu Later 8/1 Dream Proof 5/1 Stately'S Hoss 10/1
2 horses in here (1,6) with new LTMs (sub150) while winning by 4+ lengths
and I'm going to leave the 1 off my ticket... crazy sometimes pays

Saratoga R11…567 Hoosier Smirk 8/1 Never Look Back 3/1 Escapefromparadise 5/2
Would rather play this 5/367 but these are supposed to be 3 horse boxes
Small price here on the exotics, would want the 8/1 ML to bet the win

Tioga R4…753 Amboy Rocket 12/1 Where'S Bubba 8/1 Merles Boy N 4/1
Improving times now gets a better driver with Corey Braden

Vernon R9…478 Karate Chris 8/1 Great Western N 7/2 N B Lord 9/2
A few good Apr races then spent his brush too early in last 3
Probably doesn't have the speed to win..... boxem


Good Luck in all the contest pickin'
and to everyone else!:)

[spicytomato]

thanks ray


not many tracks i can take part of

but big M is everywhere

and ofcourse i love hoosier

good luck

im going yonkers tonight

weather should favor them this evening

best spice
;) :p :cool: :)

[Ray2000]

Good luck Spicy

Here's my play for Yonkers today

YR 1 ......3 2 8 Handsome Jate 5/1 Rapid City 6/1 Tuff E Nuff 8/1
YR 10 .....5 1 3 King Cat Anvil N 3/1 Royal Man 5/1 Cam'S Fool 8/1
YR 11 .....1 5 3 Matt Hershey 6/1 The Travelling Man 6/1 Jjthejethorse 3/1

Maybe you can find something you like in them.:)

[spicytomato]

Good luck Spicy

Here's my play for Yonkers today

YR 1 ......3 2 8 Handsome Jate 5/1 Rapid City 6/1 Tuff E Nuff 8/1
YR 10 .....5 1 3 King Cat Anvil N 3/1 Royal Man 5/1 Cam'S Fool 8/1
YR 11 .....1 5 3 Matt Hershey 6/1 The Travelling Man 6/1 Jjthejethorse 3/1

Maybe you can find something you like in them.:)

great thanks:kiss:
stepped away for a few
and found this when i got back

best to both of us
i havent been out in a bit
so olde ladies night out for me
spice

[Ray2000]

Hoosier R8..........736 no hit
Hazel Park R5......612 no hit
Mohawk R13........281 no hit
The BigM R3........241 Exacta $17.80
The BigM R10......216 no hit
Saratoga R11......567 Winner $27.80 Exacta $85.00
Tioga R4............416 no hit
Vernon R9..........587 no hit

Win bet $16 in, $28 back
Box bets $96 in, $103 back

Hope you all came out ahead.:)

[Ray2000]

Oops, Forgot to list the Trifecta at Saratoga

567 paid $239

[LottaKash]

Oops, Forgot to list the Trifecta at Saratoga

567 paid $239


Hey Ray, that was a BIG forget....nice........:jump:

best.

[spicytomato]

hey ray


i didnt check them yonkers
but when i went down to the otb
they werent taking.....arrrggg

its hot out so i think i mosey on down there later
and see what i can get into
balmoral runs and harrington
i can just sit there and figure them out

best ray
keepem commin..
spice:)

[Sea Biscuit]

Some 3 horse boxes with ML on Pick 1 > 7



Mohawk R13…624 Kaos Agent 12/1 Ruthless Ace 8/1 Dedalos 7/2
Conditions written for the favorite (4) so how's the 3 and 5 get in here? Bribes?



Haha Actually there are no bribes involved.

4 year olds are allowed 25% to be taken off their 3 year earnings.

Here are the complete ORC rulings on allowances.

Allowances for 2,3 4 yr olds in Ontario



Ontario has allowances on earnings for 2, 3 & 4 year olds.

A 2 year old can deduct 60% of the current season earnings when calculating their Lifetime earnings.

A 3 year olds can deduct 25% of the current season earnings and 50% of their previous season (2 yo) earnings.

A 4 year old can deduct 25% of their 3 yo earnings.

This allows horses that have earned money in age restricted stake races to be classified in a way that they theoretically would be more competitive when they race against older horses.

Hope this helps

Have fun at the races.

[Ray2000]

Thanks Sea Biscuit

Actually it does help.

My humorous or humorless crack about bribes was to draw atention to the changed conditions.

I thought the conditions as posted did not draw enough entries so the race secretary relaxed the conditions to let in the 3 and 5, and the program was printed without the updates. I see now, the allowances always apply.

Odd number though NW $106,000 Lifetime

[Sea Biscuit]

Thanks Sea Biscuit

Actually it does help.

My humorous or humorless crack about bribes was to draw atention to the changed conditions.

I thought the conditions as posted did not draw enough entries so the race secretary relaxed the conditions to let in the 3 and 5, and the program was printed without the updates. I see now, the allowances always apply.

Odd number though NW $106,000 Lifetime

This usually happens in conditions races for NW of X no. Of $ L6.

Theres more to it than meets the eye. What you said about the race secretary relaxing the condtions does happen more often than you think.

The trick is saving the original conditions as posted by the race secretary.
I copy and paste them from the Standardbred Canada Site and save them on my hard disk which is available well in advance of the actual race. Then comparing the original conditions to the race day condition.

To give you an actual example of a dynamite play at Mohawk by me.

May 3 El Toro Grande Destroys the field in NW 5400 L6 by going first Over and parking the horse for over half a mile from the 8th hole. This type of PP is the most winningest PP at Mohawk. Then what does the trainer do after this race? He enters the horse on May 10 in NW 20000 L6 a class which is two classes above his May 3 race with clear cut instructions to Jody that he wants his horse unplaced so that he can drop his horse back into NW 12000 L6 which is one class above the May 3 race by knocking off $2160 from the 6th race back. So the horse finishes 6th by 6 1/4 which was probably by design rather than any lack of effort by the horse.

Then the trainer calculates and checks that his horse has won $12880 in his last 6 starts and conditions posted are for NW 12000 L6.

So the Don Fellows before entering his horse takes a trip to the race secretarys office and here is the conversation which might have taken place in Scott Mckelvie race secretary's office.

Don Fellows: How are you doing Mr Mckelvie?

Mr Mckelvie: Fine Don what can I do for you?

Don Fellows: My horse El Toro Grande has won $12880 but the conditions stipulate only NW $12000 L6. Can you do something about it?

Mr Mckelvie: You are a nice guy Don. I will change the condtions to NW 12900 L6. Now you can enter your horse and good luck.

Now I dont know if this conversation took place or not, but believe you me when I say that this type of favors from a race secretary to a trainer there is nothing unusual about it. Somtimes when there is a shortage of horses Mr Mckelvie is sure to call Mr Don Fellows to enter a few horses to fill up the races. Favor returned.

So Mr Don fellows enters El Toro Grande on May 17 in NW 12900 L6 and qualifies by just $20 and blows away the field by two and pay $24 and change.

Moral of the story. It pays to save the original condtions and checking if the condtions have been subtlely changed on race day.

Have fun at the races.