Computer Vs.Manual capping

[Amazin]

Got a solid personal handicapping system,which was put into computer form a couple of years ago by a friend.Works O.k. In that mode.15% R.O.I.But that takes a back seat to its power in manual form.For example this weekend i went back to manual form.Hit an unprecedented(for me) 3 superfectas's in a row(small ones).Reason:In manual mode,I am made aware of the shape of the race,weaknesses and strengths of the horses,jocks and trainers.In computer form I don't have a clue to any of this,I just know the program # of the top 2 rated horses.

Problem is my manual method takes about 10 to 20 minutes per race depending on field size.Then maybe another 5 minutes to rescan the race.I also can't go thru a whole card without taking a couple of mental breaks or I'll lose a qualitative perspective of it.I'll become robot-like.That comes to over 2 hours of HARD WORK per card.The computer can do the whole card in 20 minutes,and my brain is free from encumburing figures.I'm not a big bettor($10-$20 per race)so 15%roi does not thrill me.

I hate to look at horseracing as work but I think I'm going to have to if I want to make serious money.The computer cannot see the subtleties that the human mind can in a race.Which way do you go and why?

[thoroughbred]

Amazin,

I solved the problem you pose in the following way.

In addition, to the outputs specific to my handicapping system, which the computer calculates, I print out key data directly from the Racing Form, without alteration, on the output sheets. In that way, I get to see both the calculated outputs of my program, and for reference, the information from the DRF.

The combination proves more valuable than either one by itself. Seeing both types of data on the same page makes it very efficient.

It is a simple matter, for example when using BRIS DRF files, to print out any DRF information you wish to see.

I find it to be the best of both worlds.

[Speed Figure]

Thoroughbred, are you a software programmer?

[LOU M.]

What's your roi when you cap by hand? Personally at 15% roi which probably puts you in the top 10% in the nation, triple your bets or triple the tracks you play whatever it takes to equal the payout if you were to handicapp by hand,rather than subject yourself to the mental strain of doing it by hand.Add to that the rebate at a quality offshore acct. and retire.;)

[Tom]

I like the idea of printing out key data with your selections if possible. That is important.
That is why I like making my own pace/speed numbers - when I look up the numbers for a race I am handicapping, I look at the actual worksheet, with my notes, and whatever questionable races were on that card. I know if the numbers are sound or suspect that way. I keep my work in Excel and I change the color of the print to bold red on any number that seems for whatever reason to be questionable.

[midnight]

If you're making 15% on your money, you're doing better than 95% of the pros are. I know guys that are happy to be getting 5% on volume over a year's time (plus another 4-5% from rebates).

[JustRalph]

I am wondering how you guys are calculating your ROI?

Anybody have a straight formula for it. I know How much I invested last year......how much I won.......How much of my winnings I gave back (tons) etc. Anybody come up with an easy formula? :cool:

[Amazin]

The reason I don't get thrlled from 15% ROI is that it would require a rigid style of betting.I would have to bet my top 2 computer picks and nothing else.I find that very boring.You have to realize that all 15% means is that after putting $1000 thru the windows in a robot like way of betting the top 2 picks,I'm only making $150.00 profit.Being a small better,that's alot of bets and alot of time.

Exotics is my cup of tea.My computer program is good at telling me who might win,but poor at telling me who might be 2nd,3rd or 4th.That's where I'm seeing the advantage of manual capping.I go along with Beyer's attitude in that it's almost impossible to grind out a profit even if you have a positive ROI on straight win bets because people just don't bet like machines.Maybe someone who does this for a living will be forced to bet this way. But for the rest of us that 15% is easily lost thru the temptations of the exotics.That's where you make it or break it.

[thoroughbred]

Originally posted by speed figure
Thoroughbred, are you a software programmer?

Speed Figure: Yes, I taught myself to program. Used that ability when developing CompuTrak.

[andicap]

While I can understand Amazin's reasoning -- we are passionate human beings after all, not automatons -- it is also this line of thinking that turns many of us into losing gamblers be it in racing, football, etc.

I knew a football service seller years ago who was excellent. He won 55-60% year in and year-out with his picks. I'd ask him if most of his clients were winning money and he'd say, no they weren't. How can that be, I'd ask?
Because he would give them 4 plays and they would wager on those, but not be satisfied and bet their own picks for more action. Some of them would actually get mad at this guy because they were losing!!

The point is, you have to ask yourself, why are you in this game?
Is it to make money?
is it to have fun, and make a little pin money on the side to take the wife to dinner?
Is it for the intellectual challenge of handicapping and the money is secondary?

All of these are fine reasons for betting on the ponies, but Amazin, if you're main reason for doing this is to make money, you should stick with your boring method, gradually increase your bankroll until in 6 months you can safely bet $40-$50 a race and then eventually $100.

If, however, it is for the intellectual challenge -- which you strongly imply is a motivating factor in the hobby -- then do what is the most fun for you.

Either way, fine. Just don't kid yourself, and don't say you want to make lots of money and then turn away from the best way of doing so.

[JimG]

Andicap,


One of the best replies I have read on this board. Thanks for the wake-up call.


JimG

[hurrikane]

Well stated Andi,

you really have to know what you expect from this sport.
Most think they know but their actions say something else.

[Speed Figure]

Andicap, When is your "WHY DO YOU BET HORSERACING BOOK" coming out.I would love to read it.:D

[Amazin]

Andicap:

You are talking about discipline in horseracing.It's almost a contradiction in itself.How many in this sport have that?It would practically take the discipline of a Buddhist Monk to do the boring method.Horseracing is definetly an emotional game.That's a big part of what draws people back.Conquering your emotions at the track and saying,"no I'm going the straight and narrow" is unrealistic.Besides that it's not my style.As Andy Beyer talks about in one of his books,I can count on one hand the days where I scored big and that's what put me in the black for the year.That's my style. You would have to be extremeley motivated to do the boring method,like earning a living. I'm not at that point yet.But your idea of a gradual buildup is not bad,so as the bet size increased,the adreneline would flow more. But it would still be a boring and very displined process to get there.

[dav4463]

The way Andy Beyer put it was, " If you want a steady grind it out profit, Get a job !...This is gambling, I want to win big !"

Heard that on the Handicapping Expo 2000 tape.

[andicap]

Amazin,
I never said I practiced what I preached.:D

of course it's easy to get caught up with the thrill at the track. That's why writers like Beyer, davidowitz, etc., generally recommend dividing bets into "prime" and "action."
the former are the supposed serious bets where you're really trying to make money. The latter are to styfle the boredom of sitting around for an hour without making a bet.

The problem is when you keep records, you often find you lose money with the action bets.

That's why it's so tough to win at this game. discipline is everything. It's even more difficult if you're a recreational player who doesn't bet online every day, goes to the track maybe 2 times a month and doesn't want to just bet 3 or 4 races. How do you sit back and wait for the right plays.
What if you face a card with lots of 6 horse fields and they all have short priced favorites that are standouts. (Sure, Karl will make money on those days, but not the $20 bettor who wants to have fun.)

I actually found a solution to my problem when i go to Belmont in the spring and fall. My mom likes to go the track, especially when we bring my 3 yr old daughter. She helps look after her while I follow some of the races, etc.
That way, even if I only like 3 or 4 races (with the Monmouth simulcast) i'll still have fun playing with my kid. I don't need the action bets.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by dav4463
The way Andy Beyer put it was, " If you want a steady grind it out profit, Get a job !...This is gambling, I want to win big !"


One reason I've never been a fan of Beyer. Reading about his "$50k year at the races" and you find out that it was all because he happened to get lucky a couple of times. How is that helpful? It is like writing a book, "How I won the lottery."

[LOU M.]

You keep quoting Andy Beyer. Only your betting style is a little different. Say to the tune of a few thousand dollars a Race!

Andicap you are so on, on this thread.

[oldstuff]

Thoroughbred:

I just saw the name CompuTrak and it rang a bell. I went to my old disks and pulled out CompuTrak (7.0) and written in hand is cmp7-121 on the disk. I really never did anything with the program.

Is there an upgrade?

[Amazin]

Lou M.

When I mentioned Beyer,I was refering to big payoffs not investments.You don't have to invest thousands to hit a pick 6 or superfecta.

[thoroughbred]

Originally posted by oldstuff
Thoroughbred:

I just saw the name CompuTrak and it rang a bell. I went to my old disks and pulled out CompuTrak (7.0) and written in hand is cmp7-121 on the disk. I really never did anything with the program.

Is there an upgrade?

Oldstuff: CompuTrak 7.0 is the latest. I am working on some research to enhance the program further. But if history is any guide, it will be quit awhile before any upgrade is available, what with, checking out ROI achieved, bugs, beta testing, etc.

I really recommend you try out the version you have. This forum is not the place for me to discuss it; I will be thought of as touting the program. I don't want to do that.. Just having it sit among your filed disks, is really a lost opportunity. Do use it, and ask me anything about it, and let me know how it performs for you. Thanks.

[hurrikane]

That's why writers like Beyer, davidowitz, etc., generally recommend dividing bets into "prime" and "action."

that's also why they have a day job.

[andicap]

Originally posted by hurrikane
that's also why they have a day job.


I agree!!

[Fastracehorse]

The problem is when you keep records, you often find you lose money with the action bets.

That shouldn't occur if you have some POWERFUL ANGLES.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

How is that helpful? It is like writing a book, "How I won the lottery."

Come on, al the good angles we develop ourselves.

Although I do like forms - but that's just data isn't it?

fffastt

[andicap]

ffast,
if you have a POWERFUL ANGLE, why should be only an "action bet."
If I have a great angle, I KNOW will make me money over time, man, that's a prime bet for me.

Yes, I make action bets even tho I shouldn't. Sometimes I wish I were Hymie the Robot when I'm betting.

"Kill the light, Hymie."

:D

[karlskorner]

I am SHOCKED. On another thread you objected to the word "chink" and yet HYMIE seems fine to use. Jessie Jackson upset alot of people of the Jewish faith with the use of the word Hymie. SHOCKED (G)

[hurrikane]

he did'nt adopt a jew Karl. :D

[JustMissed]

Karl, I read Sligg's post and I believe he was using the noun chink, which means "A crack or fissure;narrow opening". I took it to mean that there might be an error in his results because of the multiply tracks, as in "a chink in his armour".

I can't see how you got anything racial out of that.

JustMissed
:confused:

[karlskorner]

That's not the point. I was not offended by the word "chink" in the manner it was used, even though 1 of my 10 children is married to an Oriental.

[karlskorner]

I didn't find anything racial in the term "chink", I understood what Sligg was saying. Andicap took offense (Sidebar) the Chinese Double lives.

[PaceAdvantage]

I can understand Andi's concern. Was it an unfortunate coincidence that the term was used in a note about the Chinese Double?? Maybe the pun was intended....who knows....

In any event, this note is now way off topic....time to close....