Cratos
06-06-2008, 01:21 PM
When Big Brown the 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner is loaded into the gate at Belmont Park around 6p on June 7 thousands if not millions of racing fans in North America and around the world probably will be rooting for him to become the historic and long awaited 12th Triple Crown winner.
I will be one in that large crowd and one of his staunchest rooters because in my heart I believe it will be a big boost (even though short-lived) to a sport I care dearly about.
However in my wagering, I will be betting with my bag of wooden nickels and my handicapping because I don’t think he will smell the White Carnations of New York as the 140th winner of the Belmont.
The Belmont Stakes as all races, comes down to the 5 S’s and I don’t see Big Brown as having the ability to cover them all. The S’s and not in any order of importance are: 1. Speed, 2. Stamina, 3. Strength, 4. Style, and 5. Shape.
In any race a horse must have SPEED for the distance, STAMINA to go the distance, STRENGTH to carry the load for the distance, STYLE to negotiate the SHAPE of the race over the distance.
I have reviewed the past performances of the entries for this year’s Belmont and two horses appear to be the stumbling blocks in Big Brown’s way to the Triple Crown. They are: Denis of Cork and Macho Again. It would be too much to ask in my opinion of the highly touted Casino Drive to get a 1 ½ miles with a winning effort in his 3rd career start at the G1 stakes level. However Casino Drive does have the speed to be an early nemesis in the race to Big Brown.
I suppose the question is: “How did I arrive at Denis of Cork and Macho Again being reasonable contenders to thwart the chances of Big Brown becoming a Triple Crown winner? The answer lies in the performances of Denis of Cork in the Kentucky Derby and Macho Again in the Preakness and how the Belmont pace is when it is historically related to the Kentucky Derby pace.
In this year’s Kentucky Derby which was won by Big Brown by a commanding 4 ¾ lengths looked very easy and the 1 ½ mile Belmont shouldn’t be no problem for him. But wait, looming in the background to Big Brown’s Kentucky Derby victory was a very good performance by Denis of Cork who was running at a pace consistent with getting a 1 ½ mile distance and closing on Big Brown with every stride. At the 6 furlong mark of the Derby, Big Brown was sitting .62 seconds off of the lead and Denis of Cork was dead last and 2.39 seconds off of the lead or about 1.77 seconds behind Big Brown.
However at the finish in the Derby, Big Brown’s lead over Denis of Cork was down to 1.37 seconds and Denis of Cork was in gear. The added ¼ mile of the Belmont should be to Denis of Cork benefit.
In the Preakness Macho Again ran third to Big Brown and finished second to the winner behind by 5 ¼ lengths. But a closer look shows that Macho Again in his late move went 5 wide which on the 1 mile Pimilco strip is a lost of about 1.16 seconds which might have reduced or eliminated Big Brown’s margin of victory in the Preakness.
Lastly when comparing the pace of the Kentucky Derby to the Belmont Stakes pace over the last sixty runnings of each you have the following similarity:
60-year Average Pace Comparison of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes by quarters:
Kentucky Derby = 23.06, 23.56, 24.63, 25.33, and 25.65
Belmont Stakes = 23.96, 24.35, 25.00, 24.68, 24.87, and 25.80
From this it can be understood that the average 1 ¼ mile of the Kentucky Derby and the first 1 ¼ miles of the Belmont Stakes are run comparatively at the same pace and final time. The Derby 60-year 1 ¼ mile final time average is 2:02.23 seconds and the Belmont 60-year average for the first 1 ¼ mile is 2:02.86 seconds.
My wooden nickels will be on Denis of Cork
I will be one in that large crowd and one of his staunchest rooters because in my heart I believe it will be a big boost (even though short-lived) to a sport I care dearly about.
However in my wagering, I will be betting with my bag of wooden nickels and my handicapping because I don’t think he will smell the White Carnations of New York as the 140th winner of the Belmont.
The Belmont Stakes as all races, comes down to the 5 S’s and I don’t see Big Brown as having the ability to cover them all. The S’s and not in any order of importance are: 1. Speed, 2. Stamina, 3. Strength, 4. Style, and 5. Shape.
In any race a horse must have SPEED for the distance, STAMINA to go the distance, STRENGTH to carry the load for the distance, STYLE to negotiate the SHAPE of the race over the distance.
I have reviewed the past performances of the entries for this year’s Belmont and two horses appear to be the stumbling blocks in Big Brown’s way to the Triple Crown. They are: Denis of Cork and Macho Again. It would be too much to ask in my opinion of the highly touted Casino Drive to get a 1 ½ miles with a winning effort in his 3rd career start at the G1 stakes level. However Casino Drive does have the speed to be an early nemesis in the race to Big Brown.
I suppose the question is: “How did I arrive at Denis of Cork and Macho Again being reasonable contenders to thwart the chances of Big Brown becoming a Triple Crown winner? The answer lies in the performances of Denis of Cork in the Kentucky Derby and Macho Again in the Preakness and how the Belmont pace is when it is historically related to the Kentucky Derby pace.
In this year’s Kentucky Derby which was won by Big Brown by a commanding 4 ¾ lengths looked very easy and the 1 ½ mile Belmont shouldn’t be no problem for him. But wait, looming in the background to Big Brown’s Kentucky Derby victory was a very good performance by Denis of Cork who was running at a pace consistent with getting a 1 ½ mile distance and closing on Big Brown with every stride. At the 6 furlong mark of the Derby, Big Brown was sitting .62 seconds off of the lead and Denis of Cork was dead last and 2.39 seconds off of the lead or about 1.77 seconds behind Big Brown.
However at the finish in the Derby, Big Brown’s lead over Denis of Cork was down to 1.37 seconds and Denis of Cork was in gear. The added ¼ mile of the Belmont should be to Denis of Cork benefit.
In the Preakness Macho Again ran third to Big Brown and finished second to the winner behind by 5 ¼ lengths. But a closer look shows that Macho Again in his late move went 5 wide which on the 1 mile Pimilco strip is a lost of about 1.16 seconds which might have reduced or eliminated Big Brown’s margin of victory in the Preakness.
Lastly when comparing the pace of the Kentucky Derby to the Belmont Stakes pace over the last sixty runnings of each you have the following similarity:
60-year Average Pace Comparison of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes by quarters:
Kentucky Derby = 23.06, 23.56, 24.63, 25.33, and 25.65
Belmont Stakes = 23.96, 24.35, 25.00, 24.68, 24.87, and 25.80
From this it can be understood that the average 1 ¼ mile of the Kentucky Derby and the first 1 ¼ miles of the Belmont Stakes are run comparatively at the same pace and final time. The Derby 60-year 1 ¼ mile final time average is 2:02.23 seconds and the Belmont 60-year average for the first 1 ¼ mile is 2:02.86 seconds.
My wooden nickels will be on Denis of Cork