Unemployment rate jumps up...goons rejoice!

[PaceAdvantage]

A mixed employment report hit the wires early this morning. Nonfarm payrolls lost 49,000 jobs in May, a number that was near the low end of expectations, which foresaw 50-60k jobs lost. That's the good news. Once again, monthly job loss numbers are NOWHERE NEAR recessionary levels.

The bad news (well, good news for goons, who will jump all over this number) is the unemployment rate jumped from 5 to 5.5 percent.

Also, the April nonfarm payrolls number was revised downward from a loss of 20,000 to a loss of 28,000 jobs.

Per Briefing.com:

Overall, the data are not surprising as the payroll trend is very much consistent with economic growth in the 1% to 2% range and employment trends lag overall economic trends. The breakdown of the data provided no major surprises.

Finally, it has to be noted that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5% from 5.0% in April. This separate survey is little used by economists as a gauge of economic conditions, but it will provide plenty of fodder for headlines.

[ddog]

A mixed employment report hit the wires early this morning. Nonfarm payrolls lost 49,000 jobs in May, a number that was near the low end of expectations, which foresaw 50-60k jobs lost. That's the good news. Once again, monthly job loss numbers are NOWHERE NEAR recessionary levels.

The bad news (well, good news for goons, who will jump all over this number) is the unemployment rate jumped from 5 to 5.5 percent.

Also, the April nonfarm payrolls number was revised downward from a loss of 20,000 to a loss of 28,000 jobs.

Per Briefing.com:

this goon seems on track as I LONG AGO forecast 6.5 by election.

you say no way???

those brief dudes are some funny guys.
i see now why i canclelled my sub with them long ago.

when even the goon here thought last night that all jobs headlines(all they seem to get at brief) would show btex today then YOU better hunker in yer bunker Goldy.
yer curls are about to get toasted.

:lol:

[jballscalls]

There are people that are excited unemployment rates are higher??

[ddog]

couple of obvious points for Goldy

1. biggest 5.0 - 5.5 monthly jump I can recall in recent past??

2. Bls "fun with smoke and nbrs" says:

we added 6K jobs in FINANCIAL, I can assure you that's not true this period.

we added 42K in construction, nope nope opey.

avg workweek unchanged from bad nbrs, if true bad.

These nbrs WILL be revised LOWER in the future.

Of course, i need not hint that when they quote revised nbrs that are lower previous period and then compare headline nbr(unrevised) to that , it always makes them seem like willfull twits.

Can we finally allow that to even glance at the ADP nbs anymore is a fools waste of time.
I know ADP, they can't measure anything, laughable, if you worked with them, they are lucky to get checks printed much less anything else.



Even my 6.5 jobless call may be understated given velocity of this stuff, especially in the real world outside Goldy's Garden!
:)

[46zilzal]

Accept it, the economy is in free fall. Hide behind semantics but we are moving into the realm of the late twenties. Oil went up the largest jump ($12 in one day) and your beloved stock market (the realm of the fat cat) is in free fall today as well.

Spend money like a blind fool on the other side of the world with nothing in return, and the money runs out.

[ddog]

even tmp imps, sad to say.
check the STATS.

http://www.brucesteinberg.net/images/Steinberg_chart1.jpg

[46zilzal]

Dow down 300.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices surged for the second straight day, cresting a previous trading high, on a dollar decline that stemmed from a weak jobs report, geopolitical tensions and a forecast of $150-a-barrel oil.

At 1:20 p.m. ET, the July light crude contract was up $8.81 to $136.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, surpassing the $135.09-a-barrel trading record set May 22.

[chickenhead]

medicine!

it might be a little stronger than robitussen..but not much.

we're mainlining robitussen. we'll be better soon, not to worry.

I will be at least. I follow the Dr's orders.

Drink up

[Valuist]

The funny thing about defining a recession is, that when the academic community finally defines the economy as being in a recession, its probably over.

In the meantime, people are seeing their net worth go down and jobs become tougher to find.

And no, I don't know anyone rejoicing. I guess those of us not in denial are goons. If that's the case, so be it.

[GameTheory]

Accept it, the economy is in free fall. Hide behind semantics but we are moving into the realm of the late twenties. Oil went up the largest jump ($12 in one day) and your beloved stock market (the realm of the fat cat) is in free fall today as well.

Spend money like a blind fool on the other side of the world with nothing in return, and the money runs out.How can you say such nonsense with a straight face? In the realm of the late 20's? Are you kidding? How many people reading this had to wait in a soup line today?

Let's say things actually get really bad -- what will you say then -- it's the apocalypse?

[46zilzal]

medicine!

it might be a little stronger than robitussen..but not much.

we're mainlining robitussen. we'll be better soon, not to worry.

I will be at least. I follow the Dr's orders.

Drink up
You don't need all that junk. Just find the active ingredient for coughing, dextromethorphan, and buy it in pill form.

[GameTheory]

You don't need all that junk. Just find the active ingredient for coughing, dextromethorphan, and buy it in pill form.Clueless reply of the year! :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

See what I mean about the rejoice part?

The start of all recent prior recessions saw MASSIVE job losses. Since we haven't seen anything near MASSIVE job losses yet, I have to assume this is a big question mark to those suggesting not only has the recession begun, but we are KNEE DEEP in it now.

[wonatthewire1]

couple of obvious points for Goldy

1. biggest 5.0 - 5.5 monthly jump I can recall in recent past??

2. Bls "fun with smoke and nbrs" says:

we added 6K jobs in FINANCIAL, I can assure you that's not true this period.

we added 42K in construction, nope nope opey.

avg workweek unchanged from bad nbrs, if true bad.

These nbrs WILL be revised LOWER in the future.

Of course, i need not hint that when they quote revised nbrs that are lower previous period and then compare headline nbr(unrevised) to that , it always makes them seem like willfull twits.

Can we finally allow that to even glance at the ADP nbs anymore is a fools waste of time.
I know ADP, they can't measure anything, laughable, if you worked with them, they are lucky to get checks printed much less anything else.



Even my 6.5 jobless call may be understated given velocity of this stuff, especially in the real world outside Goldy's Garden!
:)



Bloomberg radio was reporting biggest % jump in 42 years; but also saying mostly kids unable to get work? I didn't know that you could go on unemployment simply because you can't get a summer job and don't have school? Crap if i knew that back in the day, I wouldn't have bothered.

[ddog]

medicine!

it might be a little stronger than robitussen..but not much.

we're mainlining robitussen. we'll be better soon, not to worry.

I will be at least. I follow the Dr's orders.

Drink up

if only we had more like you and some of you could rub off on the fed/state gvt in this country.

most say they will take/want the medicine , but they only tongue it and then spit it out.

[ddog]

See what I mean about the rejoice part?

The start of all recent prior recessions saw MASSIVE job losses. Since we haven't seen anything near MASSIVE job losses yet, I have to assume this is a big question mark to those suggesting not only has the recession begun, but we are KNEE DEEP in it now.

not true, the massive jobs losses are normally a trailing indicator.
recession can be starting with exactly what we have now.
minscule growth signs even some unrevised positive ones.

[sammy the sage]

As I've stated previously...I'll let the stock market DO MY TALKING... :(

Really P.A./other's...you guy's are using ANTIQUATED measure's for MODERN society...

JUST like HORSE racing...the LAST 4 Kentucky Derby WINNER'S have smashed/broken same sort of rules/IDEOLOGY...

PLEASE...wake-up...and smell the coffee...

And really...I'm not a goon...SERIOUSLY....my business was off 30% this spring...DO YOU HONESTLY THINK...that I want that... :rolleyes:

[jballscalls]

And really...I'm not a goon...SERIOUSLY....my business was off 30% this spring...DO YOU HONESTLY THINK...that I want that... :rolleyes:

I've read on here EVERYDAY that there are apparently people who do rejoice in things being and/or appearing bad, i still havent met any. times are tough, they aren't horrible, they arent great, they are tough.

[riskman]

There are people that are excited unemployment rates are higher??

Pathetic is'nt it? Any bad news is good news to some !

[Valuist]

not true, the massive jobs losses are normally a trailing indicator.
recession can be starting with exactly what we have now.
minscule growth signs even some unrevised positive ones.

Exactly. And like I said earlier, by the time the powers that be define it as an "official recession", things will probably be getting better.

But hearing John Kyl talk on CNN this morning, everything is going great but gas is a tiny bit more expensive. This is the same nut job who's on an anti-online gambling rampage. Meanwhile the state in which he and McCain reside has had tons of problems with illegal immigrants. The two Johns ought to be more concerned with the problems they have in their own backyard.

[PaceAdvantage]

Exactly. And like I said earlier, by the time the powers that be define it as an "official recession", things will probably be getting better.Is it, or is it not true, that at the beginning of the 2001 recession, there were MASSIVE monthly job losses? 150,000....200,000....compared to what today? 40,000?

[ddog]

well, i have to admit, for Kyl and Mccain and even me , things are not bad, they are fine, i can afford all the gas and food I want.

that's never been the issue.

long-term bad choices do catch up to you, unless you kick the bucket young, we have simply been the victim over several past admins some more so than others of bad choices supported by too many people.

similar to a classic car, you can stop maint. on it for awhile, you can sell off the bling, you can even sell off parts that are not essential to the operation.

But, eventually it will have a hard time performing.

[ddog]

Is it, or is it not true, that at the beginning of the 2001 recession, there were MASSIVE monthly job losses? 150,000....200,000....compared to what today? 40,000?


we have lost approx 350K since I said it started.
2001 could be a tad out of the norm for comparison don't you think.

[ddog]

here's a decent history overview of the R.

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/jobs-show-recession-is-here/

[sammy the sage]

YO DDOG...nice find..Just made the point...painfully so...I've said since DEC.07

P.A...you outta read this paragraph again...

"Over the last nine recessions, dating back to 1953, that indicator has a perfect record. Every time it has turned negative, the economy is already in recession. And once it turns negative, it stays that way for quite a while. (Caution: These numbers will be revised, and this history is based on the revised figures, not the originally reported ones. But I think the revisions, when they come, are much more likely to indicate the figure went negative early rather than later.)"

[ddog]

Sammy

and the real problems are so buried and not looked at , if we don't do something about this oil robbery we are going to get a deeper mess than I originally thought.

If you or others get a chance I urge all to check the cspan link in the oil thread, if you don't think we are getting jobbed then I don't know the meaning of the term anymore.

I believe the chickens are coming in for a landing, as we have tossed all fiscal restraint and become a SLAVE to short term flipping in all markets and made it easier to play in them due to a change away from 70 years of gvt regs that helped to make markets transparent and keep non-physical players out of the markets or at least under control since 2000.

As I have been saying for a long time , lots of this crap is just old fashion speculation and has nothing to do with the physical demand/supply.

Congress and the regulator boards need to step up or we will be bled out like a tied up hog.

commodity markets and to a lessor extent the home market have been turned into a lottery/casino for the top 1% to rip off the bottom 90%.

JMO, hope i am wrong.

Oh, that little change was the Enron reform language.
Wow , enron sure worked out well, now the whole damn country thinks you can run an no assest regime and be just fine.

OH, nbr 2 , as I posted in another thread a week ago or so , when I saw his rodent like features on tv, gues who is coming to dinner with Mccain if he wins.
None other than tha traitor/slime, Phil Gramm of texas.

it's given me pasue to re-think my vote for Mccain.
he must get rid of that traitor.

Talk about wright or the other kook or ayers, HERE is the real danger, those other kooks couldn't write legislation if their lifes depended on it.

Mccain, denouce Gramm and repudiate his betrayal , sellout of America now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[sammy the sage]

by the way P.A....might wanna read this...

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0634326520080606

oh and re-read this line is said article as well...

" So far in 2008, job losses have totaled 324,000, the department said."

bit more than what you've been saying?

[ezpace]

of couse many of you may prefer the rambling wreck govs. ;) ;) and it doesn't matter which party brand is stealing the toilet paper.. ;)



traders especially click around this guys got some great stuff.


free too

not affiliated in any way just another tool I use i to trade with



http://www.brucesteinberg.net/prod03.htm

[PaceAdvantage]

here's a decent history overview of the R.

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/jobs-show-recession-is-here/Thank you. It's about time someone countered my argument with actual statistical data. That's all I was asking for....

[PaceAdvantage]

" So far in 2008, job losses have totaled 324,000, the department said."

bit more than what you've been saying?I've been quoting monthly figures, not a 2008 total. Of course the yearly total will be more than my monthly totals. I find the monthly totals to be easier to compare to past recessions.

[sammy the sage]

""I find the monthly totals to be easier to compare to past recessions.""

Oh you mean like 'capping' a horse race (or better yet...PACE of a race) by all horse's LAST race's w/in a month :lol:

No wonder you haven't figured out we're ALREADY IN a full blown recession :bang:

[boxcar]

Accept it, the economy is in free fall. Hide behind semantics but we are moving into the realm of the late twenties. Oil went up the largest jump ($12 in one day) and your beloved stock market (the realm of the fat cat) is in free fall today as well.

Spend money like a blind fool on the other side of the world with nothing in return, and the money runs out.

Does your "realm of the fat cat" include a very large segment of the working class in this country who have vested interests in their 401Ks?

Boxcar

[PaceAdvantage]

""I find the monthly totals to be easier to compare to past recessions.""

Oh you mean like 'capping' a horse race (or better yet...PACE of a race) by all horse's LAST race's w/in a month :lol:

No wonder you haven't figured out we're ALREADY IN a full blown recession :bang:How are the two examples even remotely similar? The most utilized jobs report is the nonfarms payroll report, released monthly. Monthly figures detailing the number of jobs gained or lost in the last month.

Many people in the media have used these numbers to compare what we're seeing now to past recessions (most recently, 2001). Please, enlighten me as to why using this report is not appropriate in trying to judge just how serious this economic slowdown is.....

The numbers currently do not support the notion that we are in a "full blown" recession.

[hcap]

Anecdotal. But adds to the circumstantial evidence that the "downturn" is pretty dismal.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/business/09gas.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin

Rural U.S. Takes Worst Hit as Gas Tops $4 Average

"But the pain is not being felt uniformly. Across broad swaths of the South, Southwest and the upper Great Plains, the combination of low incomes, high gas prices and heavy dependence on pickup trucks and vans is putting an even tighter squeeze on family budgets.

Here in the Mississippi Delta, some farm workers are borrowing money from their bosses so they can fill their tanks and get to work. Some are switching jobs for shorter commutes.

People are giving up meat so they can buy fuel. Gasoline theft is rising. And drivers are running out of gas more often, leaving their cars by the side of the road until they can scrape together gas money.

The disparity between rural America and the rest of the country is a matter of simple home economics. Nationwide, Americans are now spending about 4 percent of their take-home income on gasoline. By contrast, in some counties in the Mississippi Delta, that figure has surpassed 13 percent."

[Valuist]

How are the two examples even remotely similar? The most utilized jobs report is the nonfarms payroll report, released monthly. Monthly figures detailing the number of jobs gained or lost in the last month.

Many people in the media have used these numbers to compare what we're seeing now to past recessions (most recently, 2001). Please, enlighten me as to why using this report is not appropriate in trying to judge just how serious this economic slowdown is.....

The numbers currently do not support the notion that we are in a "full blown" recession.

Like someone said earlier in the thread, the problem with unemployment is its a lagging indicator. Companies aren't looking to lay people off until things have already gone bad.

[PaceAdvantage]

Like someone said earlier in the thread, the problem with unemployment is its a lagging indicator. Companies aren't looking to lay people off until things have already gone bad.I realize that, but at what was considered the beginning of the 2001 recession, massive job losses were the norm. People are saying this recession began around October 2007....that was eight freakin' months ago, and what has been the biggest single monthly job loss to date? I think the number is 65,000.

In 2001, the recession was said to have started in March. In April of 2001, the economy lost 281,000 jobs.

Bueller?

[ddog]

the world turns, you must attempt new thought. ;)
they could turn out to be wrong, but always looking back doesn't do much for one most times.

think one thing has increased for sure since previous R?

I say productivity.

if companys can produce what's required(?) with less then economy can grow with less people needed.
so, less "fat" to cut , you are cutting bone, not fat, companys hold off on that until the curtain comes down????

you can also have different "leaders" into an R, those leaders can infuence the rate of downturn, some sectors are more sensitive to the pressure than others.

Do you think it easier for a bank to lay off a few hundred traders or a builder in the middle of heavy pressure to stop a huge project in mid course by dumping all the workers today?

easy , bank.

[46zilzal]

WASHINGTON--The trade deficit jumped to the highest level in 13 months in April as America's bill for foreign crude oil soared to an all-time high.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the gap between what the nation imports and what it sells abroad rose by 7.8% to $60.9 billion, the largest imbalance since March 2007. The April deficit was $4.4 billion higher than the March imbalance of $56.5 billion.

The deterioration in the deficit was driven by a $4.3 billion increase in crude oil imports which jumped to a record $29.3 billion in April, as the average per barrel price rose to an all-time high of $96.81.

Oil imports are expected to climb further in coming months given that crude oil has continued its relentless rise and is now trading above $130 per barrel.

[acorn54]

if i may chime in here
some say that businesses nowadays operate with a skeleton crew and less fat than they did in the past. so there is less room to layoff workers without doing harm to the bottom line when things get slow.
businesses today just add or take away work hours from their existing work force as the good or bad economy dictates and only hire extra people as a last resort.
anyway that's one theory of how the economy can be bad without alot of layoffs. in my case my employer just cuts my hours of adds hours depending on whether business is good or bad. right now he is cutting everyone's hours because business is slow.

[wonatthewire1]

if i may chime in here
some say that businesses nowadays operate with a skeleton crew and less fat than they did in the past. so there is less room to layoff workers without doing harm to the bottom line when things get slow.
businesses today just add or take away work hours from their existing work force as the good or bad economy dictates and only hire extra people as a last resort.
anyway that's one theory of how the economy can be bad without alot of layoffs. in my case my employer just cuts my hours of adds hours depending on whether business is good or bad. right now he is cutting everyone's hours because business is slow.


A little different where I am (mega huge company) - if someone leaves a position to take another or leave the company; none of those slots are being backfilled to cut costs

Has, though, been going on for about 14 months now...

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for the replies. Definitely some food for thought there as to why we MAY be in a recession and the job losses are not even close to approaching the job losses of any of the past modern day recesssions.