Does this really sound like a Belmont Stakes winner in the making?

[PaceAdvantage]

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45585.htm

Casino Drive maintained that lead down the stretch while failing to change leads once again. Crossing the finish, he gave a slight bobble as if he hit a bad spot and that enabled him to finally change leads as he continued strongly past the wire. Clockers caught him going a half in :55 4/5. A private clocker got him in closer to :57.Failing to change leads, super slow works, bobbling, being trained to run at a crawl early then finish up fast (not a style that wins the Belmont often, especially in this paceless affair)....

What am I missing here? Why is this horse being touted up and down the eastern seaboard as some sort of second-coming?

And on top of all this, he's supposed to beat Big Brown in the process? Yeah. Ok.

Sign me,

Unconvinced.

[rastajenk]

I'm using Denis the Corker as the key in my spoiler tix. I find myself resisting the Casino hype, too, and I'm not interested in a $25 Big Brown tri.

[NYPlayer]

There's something not right about Casino Drive. I heard a rumor today that he didn't come out of his stall for a couple of days. The funky workout pattern is definitely not a good sign. It looks as though he'll probably run poorly, and that almost makes 2-5 on Big Brown seem like an overlay.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

When i tried to say that Casino was 2 seconds faster than Big Brown in any "chosen' 1/4 mile, most thought I hadn't a clue. Casino can top out 2 mph faster than Big Brown. Radar guns don't lie. Nice post Pace.

A lot of people are in for a big suprise when Edgar "Evil Kneval" Prado lights Casino's rocket in the Belmont.

The may very well be a runaway in the Belmont. But it ain't Big Brown that has the power to run away.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't follow. Can you spell your last reply out for me Dr.? I'm extra dumb tonight.

[richrosa]

I don't follow. Can you spell your last reply out for me Dr.? I'm extra dumb tonight.

I think he disagrees with you, whereas I absolutely agree with you.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

There's something not right about Casino Drive. I heard a rumor today that he didn't come out of his stall for a couple of days. The funky workout pattern is definitely not a good sign. It looks as though he'll probably run poorly, and that almost makes 2-5 on Big Brown seem like an overlay.

Tada and team have a completely different concept in training than the Americans. As Tada has stated, they let the horse dictate to them what makes him comfortable. No hurries. Casino will still be Casino tomorrow.

These Japanese boys brought the million dollar Casino to New York for one reason only, to take the Crown Jewel. Second place is not in their option box. They wouldn't waste their time if they did not have knowledge that Casino can and should win Belmont. Casino is ready. he's an innate bad boy. Bank that.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[46zilzal]

Casino Drive doesn't match up very well with this field.

[pktruckdriver]

Well I made nothing so far on this Triple Crown thing



But I will now state that BB will be out of the money, No TC winner again.



I bet 3457 box ex and tri Take it to the bank, hummmm
Now let see what happens

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

I don't follow. Can you spell your last reply out for me Dr.? I'm extra dumb tonight.

I misinterpreted the information. I thought it was a five furlong workout, when it was indeed a four fulong workout. My bad. 55 and 2 suprised me when I thought it was 5 furlongs. Although, Casino can most likely turn a 57 flat 5 furlong. That wouldn't be a suprise. The believable 5 furlong 57 actually scared me for a moment there though. I was wondering why they would want to blaze him like that at five furlongs.

I still stand by the statement that a lot of people are gonna be suprised when Casino fires.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[WinterTriangle]

Casino Drive sure didn't like his workout today, ears pinned back, etc.

Other than the interesting nature of this horse's breeding, training practices, and media-hype, I personally have a very hard time honestly handicapping him since he has little "works" to point to.

You're right about one thing.....he sure is a bad boy, I keep seeing him as a young teenage boy going thru puberty....I'd not be surprised to see him toss his rider like Recapture did in the stall. :)

I think he will hit the board, that's all I can say at this point.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage]http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45585.htm
What am I missing here? Why is this horse being touted up and down the eastern seaboard as some sort of second-coming?

Here's why Casino Drive is touted so highly.
People love what Casino's breeding represents, namely most all the past Kings of the sport.
People love Casino's majestic beauty.
People love Casino's youthfulness and his prancy attitude.
People innately love the red horse.
People love his name. It fits him.
Most people like the fact that Casino is steroid free.
Observant people know Casino is really fast. (102 speed rating in Peter Pan at BELMONT. That's for real ya'll, no ifs or maybe).
And last but far from least, Americans love rooting the underdog.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[richrosa]

If I make a Superfecta ticket, which besides a win bet might be the only plausible play, Casino Drive will not be on it.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

[QUOTE=WinterTriangle]
You're right about one thing.....he sure is a bad boy, I keep seeing him as a young teenage boy going thru puberty....I'd not be surprised to see him toss his rider like Recapture did in the stall. :)

You said that right WinterTriangle. He almost dumped Kent when he finally decided to take off in the Peter Pan. Casino is full of youthful energy. Almost spastic.

If Casino's rocket accidentally fires when Edgar isn't ready, Edgar will be sitting in the dirt, in which case Edgar will be getting ran over by every horse in the field.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Stareagle]

I know that Kazuo Fujisawa's preference for slow works is well-known, and obviously he isn't an idiot, given the number of Japanese training titles he's won, but I'm wondering two things:

First, is there any evidence on how much of his success is because of his methodology, and how much is because he's given a lot of high-dollar horses? The guy has been a major force in Japan for 15 years now, but he certainly hasn't started some global revolution.

Second, and more critically for anyone trying to handicap the Belmont, do these workouts even have anything to do with odd training methods, or is there something wrong with the horse? After all, he did go five furlongs in 59.4 three days before the Peter Pan. Now he's struggling to go a half-mile in that amount of time.

I wrote on the day of the Peter Pan that he'd probably win the Belmont, but right now, I'm leaning toward building exotic tickets without him.

[MNslappy]

Fujisawa is on record saying that the fast work before the Peter Pan was highly unusual for him. The horse had been in quarantine and shipped in from the farthest reaches of the galaxy, so he changed up his usual routine and gave CD a fast workout because he thought he needed it.

I don't know exactly what to make of the recent works, but the more I read about the trainer, the more I think it's by design.

[WinterTriangle]

is there something wrong with the horse?

It seems that way.

Either that, or he's extremely moody and is feeling rank.

Perhaps a nice horse race with other horsies will turn his lights back on. :)

[JustRalph]

I gotta tell you.............. I just can't take handicapping advice from a guy who calls himself an educated pig sniffer......................

[PaceAdvantage]

After all, he did go five furlongs in 59.4 three days before the Peter Pan.EXACTLY!

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

I gotta tell you.............. I just can't take handicapping advice from a guy who calls himself an educated pig sniffer......................

That's funny Ralph.

The name actually came from the first board that I ever posted upon, "HogBuzz". That would be 103.7 FM in Little Rock's "Arkansas Razorbacks" message board. I'm a big pig fan!

I got ragged for the name from day one and it kinda just stunk, I mean stuck.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[JustRalph]

That's funny Ralph.

The name actually came from the first board that I ever posted upon, "HogBuzz". That would be 103.7 FM in Little Rock's "Arkansas Razorbacks" message board. I'm a big pig fan!

I got ragged for the name from day one and it kinda just stunk, I mean stuck.

Dr. SwineSmeller

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Works for me..............

[KingChas]

For those of you who think Casino Drive is a great value play.

I offer you this;

"Rots of Ruck"

:D

[Pace Cap'n]

Maybe they should let Robin (Tagg's exercise rider) work CD. She did wonders for Funny Cide.

[Shenanigans]

I have never been impressed with Japanese training methods. I can't really recall (I'm sure there are some) any big named Japenese horse coming over here and rocking our world. Could someone enlighten me?
If Casino wins, he will be winning due to his breeding and nothing more.

[BeatTheChalk]

I gotta tell you.............. I just can't take handicapping advice from a guy who calls himself an educated pig sniffer......................

I don't know anything about Pig Sniffing .. but I do know something
about education. 1 outa 2 isn't bad :lol: :cool:

[Wiley]

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45585.htm

Failing to change leads, super slow works, bobbling, being trained to run at a crawl early then finish up fast (not a style that wins the Belmont often, especially in this paceless affair)....

What am I missing here? Why is this horse being touted up and down the eastern seaboard as some sort of second-coming?

And on top of all this, he's supposed to beat Big Brown in the process? Yeah. Ok.

Sign me,

Unconvinced.
The work was on a muddy sealed track, it's possible and sounds like he did not care for it, be nice to hear what Prado had to say about it, I assume he was up. Later in the article the author does mention how physically impressive CD looks. From this he looks like a bad play in off going and maybe in general.

The sample size for Japan imports has got to be low so I don't think you can make any solid conclusions there. Last one I remember was the Derby a few years ago a Slew offspring that wore the weird earmuffs, ran up the track in the Derby. They have won some big ones in Dubai I recall at least on turf with the Sunday Silence influence always being there.

[keithw84]

Casino Drive doesn't match up very well with this field.
I'm new to this. Can you explain what the graph means?

[46zilzal]

I'm new to this. Can you explain what the graph means?
A comparison of the relative incremental velocities of the three fractional components of their races. Shows BB will be out front with a few closing late. Add water to the mix and it helps the front.

[Steve 'StatMan']

DRF has a very brief acticle for now. Connections weren't happy with Casino Drive's work, reported may have a stone bruise in a foot. Horse being evaluated, his status for the race could change by Saturday.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95244.html

[Semipro]

DRF has a very brief acticle for now. Connections weren't happy with Casino Drive's work, reported may have a stone bruise in a foot. Horse being evaluated, his status for the race could change by Saturday.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95244.htmlThey will run him with their excuse already set my gut says toss.

[WJ47]

They will run him with their excuse already set my gut says toss.

I think they'll run him too.

[njcurveball]

Makes for some interesting exotics if the horse stays in. 25% or more of the exotic money will include him on the ticket. There just might be some profit in using Big Brown on top after all! :ThmbUp:

[KingChas]

My question here is to all the people questioning BB's quarter crack...

IS it more inhumane to run a horse with a split toenail raring to go...or

MORE inhumane to run a horse that clearly with the recent workouts & body language..less the foreign trainers BS..... clearly doesn't want to run?

:confused: PETA??????

[Gallop58]

Just curious as to what kind of chaos a gate or paddock accident scratch of BB or say CD would do, given the pool size, number of outlets handling wagers etc.? I wondered the same about Barbaro when he busted the gate and might be scratched.... In real time, what would that type of chaos look like? Computer crashes all over? How would they handle it? (they being the $ tote systems)

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not sure why a late scratch of any horse would cause a problem with the tote. The money would be removed from the pool, and the remaining horses' odds would be recalculated, same as any other day.

Now, you're going to have long lines as everyone goes for a refund, but that's another story.

[NYPlayer]

I misinterpreted the information. I thought it was a five furlong workout, when it was indeed a four fulong workout. My bad. 55 and 2 suprised me when I thought it was 5 furlongs...I still stand by the statement that a lot of people are gonna be suprised when Casino fires.

Dr. SwineSmeller

I think the only people that may be surprised are those who expect him to run well. Before the Peter Pan, he worked 5 furlongs in 59-4/5 seconds - a standard workout. All of the other training moves the horse has done since that race are too slow to be listed as workouts. I don't think that's a good sign at all.

I admit that Casino Drive on paper looks like the only other contender in BB's class, but it's all about conditioning, and frankly, I don't expect the horse to deliver if he runs.

Even with Casino out of the picture, I couldn't key on Big Brown. I think it's totally wrong to expect an easy victory for Brown. The horse has already delivered the best race it's capable of this season, and it came in the Derby. That strong effort was followed by a bounce in the Preakness, and since then the horse developed a quarter crack - the kind of hoof problems that even Dutrow admits kept him from the races earlier. I think Macho Again and Tale of Ekati have the best chance to beat him if he goes backward even slightly. I plan to play a trifecta with those two, and I would also use Denis of Cork. BB will still be on several tickets. I'll take a stand against Casino Drive.

[BeatTheChalk]

For those of you who think Casino Drive is a great value play.

I offer you this;

"Rots of Ruck"

:D

Reminds me of a good friend. He has that slight speech impediment ..sounds
sorta like Brokaw. And he would say """ LLLLots a LLLLLuck """ From the
South Side of Chicago. In those days you did not even THINK of messing
with folks who were South and way West of the LLLLoop :lol:

[nobeyerspls]

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45585.htm

Failing to change leads, super slow works, bobbling, being trained to run at a crawl early then finish up fast (not a style that wins the Belmont often, especially in this paceless affair)....

What am I missing here? Why is this horse being touted up and down the eastern seaboard as some sort of second-coming?

And on top of all this, he's supposed to beat Big Brown in the process? Yeah. Ok.

Sign me,

Unconvinced.
Looks like you sniffed this one out early. I was going to leave him out of my bets but I was worried that he would injure himself during the race. I'm glad that his connections scratched him.

[Tom]

Shoulda scratched BB, too......what a disaml performance. Now, another black eye for racing - PETA will be jumping on this one...all the news about his hoof - whether or not it had anything to do with it.

"I HAD NO HORSE."

Not quite the same as "He's moving like a tremendous machine." :rolleyes:

[Cangamble]

I boxed 1-6-10 for a fin. I figured the 6 was the only speed. Even mentioned it on my blog. I liked the scratched horse to win it. Too bad he didn't go. I would have probably had the ex.

[dutchboy]

Wonder why they ran Big Brown 4-5 wide most of the race. That was one of my first thoughts after the race started and it seems like he was kept 4-5 wide most of the race. I think they thought all they had to do was put the saddle on and walk over the field. Has Big Brown really run a fast time compared to the great horses in history? Believe I read Secretariats time in the KY Derby was 13 lengths faster that BB.

In a 1.5 mile race how many lengths would that be?

[ezrabrooks]

Wonder why they ran Big Brown 4-5 wide most of the race. That was one of my first thoughts after the race started and it seems like he was kept 4-5 wide most of the race. I think they thought all they had to do was put the saddle on and walk over the field. Has Big Brown really run a fast time compared to the great horses in history? Believe I read Secretariats time in the KY Derby was 13 lengths faster that BB.

In a 1.5 mile race how many lengths would that be?

I thought he was further out than that...when finally pulled up.