Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The ENTIRE BELMONT CARD this saturday are available at the link below.

I would also like to see if there would be any interest in opening up the WAR room for the Belmont Day card for some open discussion of the days races.



Good Luck.


John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[Tom]

Thanks, and yes!

[JBmadera]

yes and thank you for posting the flash card.

[LemonSoupKid]

Do you have a(some) favorite play(s) for the card?

That turf Grade 1 is a beast, right before our marquee race. Mercy.

[john del riccio]

Do you have a(some) favorite play(s) for the card?

That turf Grade 1 is a beast, right before our marquee race. Mercy.

LSK,

I won't be going through the card until saturday AM, I will try & get into the WAR room 1/2 hour prior to the first race.

John

[Premier Turf Club]

Props to John for posting the ratings week in - week out free of charge. I know a lot more people look at these/download them than thank him for putting them up.

I for one am very appreciative of the support John has shown for PTC. :ThmbUp:

[john del riccio]

Props to John for posting the ratings week in - week out free of charge. I know a lot more people look at these/download them than thank him for putting them up.

I for one am very appreciative of the support John has shown for PTC. :ThmbUp:

Thanks Ian, much appreciated, same to you and PTC for all the info you provide....maybe one day I will actually get to use PTC in New Jersey....

John

[Stareagle]

I have a question about your Preakness figures, but it applies to many situations when doing speed figures.

You gave Big Brown an 83 for the Preakness, within one length of the numbers you gave him for the Derby (82) and the Florida Derby (84). The only way I could see that he gets basically the same figure for all three races would be if you adjusted his Preakness number for the fact that he was wrapped up down the stretch.

I'm not entirely sure that's what you did, I know other people have said that they have, and I can accept the idea.

It is the next step where there seems to be a problem with the logic. If you give BB an adjustment based on the fact that he wasn't pushed, you are saying that he "should" have run a faster time, meaning he would have won the race by more than 5 1/4 lengths.

So wouldn't it make more sense to rate the other horses off Big Brown's raw score, rather than his adjusted score? You have BB with an 83, Macho Again with a 78 and Icabad Crane with a 77. Doesn't that mean that MA and IC are getting the same bonus for BB getting a hand-ride, even though they weren't in the same position?

[john del riccio]

I have a question about your Preakness figures, but it applies to many situations when doing speed figures.

You gave Big Brown an 83 for the Preakness, within one length of the numbers you gave him for the Derby (82) and the Florida Derby (84). The only way I could see that he gets basically the same figure for all three races would be if you adjusted his Preakness number for the fact that he was wrapped up down the stretch.

I'm not entirely sure that's what you did, I know other people have said that they have, and I can accept the idea.

It is the next step where there seems to be a problem with the logic. If you give BB an adjustment based on the fact that he wasn't pushed, you are saying that he "should" have run a faster time, meaning he would have won the race by more than 5 1/4 lengths.

So wouldn't it make more sense to rate the other horses off Big Brown's raw score, rather than his adjusted score? You have BB with an 83, Macho Again with a 78 and Icabad Crane with a 77. Doesn't that mean that MA and IC are getting the same bonus for BB getting a hand-ride, even though they weren't in the same position?

I do not give horses extra credit for being wrapped up, there is no way to quantify that he could have run faster, its logival to think he may, but who is to kno wfor sure so I don't make assumptions for that. I also don't give extra credit for horses going wide, as BB did in the Derby, this is a "raw" variant. Trips/Bias are left to the handicapper. Sometimes wide is where you want to be so if you give extra credit to those types all of the time, you may actually be making a big mistake. I am not sure if this answeres your question or not
so let me know if it doesn't.

What these three races tell me subtley is that BB is btter at 1 1/8 than he is at 1 3/16, and better at 1 3/16 than he is at 1 1/4 miles. What does that mean at 1 1/2 miles but I would think that he would probaboly not be as good at 1 1/2 as he is at 1 1/4. This means that if someone were to run say an 81 in the BELMONT, they could make a race of it....

John

[Stareagle]

I do not give horses extra credit for being wrapped up, there is no way to quantify that he could have run faster, its logival to think he may, but who is to kno wfor sure so I don't make assumptions for that. ... I am not sure if this answeres your question or not so let me know if it doesn't.

It does answer my question, and I agree with you that it is better to not try to quantify such things.

I was just surprised because I hadn't seen many figuremakers that gave the Preakness a higher number than the Derby.

[Murph]

I do not give horses extra credit for being wrapped up, there is no way to quantify that he could have run faster, its logical to think he may, but who is to know for sure so I don't make assumptions for that. I also don't give extra credit for horses going wide, as BB did in the Derby, this is a "raw" variant. Trips/Bias are left to the handicapper. John I share your philosophy on adjusting the figures, John. Good work and thank you for sharing it with us here.

Murph

[bobphilo]

John,


I would like to thank you for posting your figures, as well. I think the fact that you consistently post your figures, in advance, speaks volumes for your confidence in your product.


Bob

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks John :ThmbUp:

[Hard2Like]

Now it's off to find a price,Kuck's in hand.John,your generosity is much appreciated.Thanks,again.:ThmbUp:

[john del riccio]

I had been looking at the Belmont Stakes from the perspective that BB's figs were stronger as the distances were shorter so taking a shot against him at 1 1/2 miles was not too big a leap of faith.

Ian had told me earlier in the week that his private clocker didn't like the way BB looked following his workout and that the run downs he incurred at PIM were very bad (PIM is notorius for the run-down issues on its dirt course).

There were only 3 horses that I could see using MACHO AGAIN, DENIS OF CORK, and DA'TARA. MACHO AGAIN & DENIS OF CORK didn't have the style that typically wins the Belmont with there one run closing approach. That left
DA'TARA (based on my figs).

In my conversation with Ian when we were discussing the late pick-4's at BEL, I mentioned that the only issue with DA'TARA was him picking up alot of weight 35-1 made him worth the risk. Ian said hethought DA'TARA would steal the lead and thats what I was hoping to see as well. I REALLY thought the race would be decided early & if BB wanted to take it to them he'd get the lead and make them catch him. When BB & the jock were
doing the tango going into the first turn, I couldn't beleive my eyes.

My bet size would have been significantly smaler had Ians clocker not
informed him that BB didn't look right after his workout, PROPS to PTC,
I am truly grateful.

I'm taking the day off, SALUTE !!!!!!

John

[Premier Turf Club]

Here's the whole story.

The clocker that saw BB's work thought it was OK- good, but not great. After the work some memmbers of the press went back to watch BB get a bath. One of the media noticed that while he was standing for his bath he kept doing this thing where he would pick up one front foot, flex it for a few seconds and put it down, pick up the other front foot, flex it and put it down.

The media member who didn't know what that was all about (neither did I at the time) called my partner Joe to describe it in real-time. Joe said it's called "pointing" and it means his feet are really stinging him. Joe got off with him and called me. I was a little skeptical and asked whether or not it was possible BB was just playing. Joe said he didn't think so because he wouldn't put any wieght down on the foot when he put it down (based upon how it was described to him). On Friday he said he saw some film of that bath on TVG and he definitely saw the "pointing." I just related to John what Joe had seen and been told.

Unfortunately for me, Joe loved Tale of Ekati and sold me on him, and I didn't like Da'Tara so I ended up boxing DoC, ToE, RE, MA and AN and using 4 of them in PK 4's. Even worse for us was that Casino Drive, who was described to us as "completely lame" on the Thursday before the Belmont scratching out. We ended up cashing zero so I am happy John hit. :)

Dutrow is a very good horsemen, especially with feet, and it is a tremendous accomplishment he held that horse together this long. When we did the KY Clocker's report Joe's comment was he thought BB was 50% to win, and 50% never to race again after the Derby. The horse is extremely talented but inherited the quarter crack issues his sire had. Mott once described Boundary as having about the worst feet he had ever seen. I hope BB races again but I think it is extremely unlikely.

[Tom]

Man, if the PRESS is seeing that stuff, what is Dutrow....blind?

[ezpace]

and all your posts

[sammy the sage]

Well a classy INITIAL post...rating's and all :cool:

TURNED into a classic RED-BOARD...self-pat on the back :bang: :rolleyes: :mad:

Which of course will NOT gainn customer's!

[john del riccio]

Well a classy INITIAL post...rating's and all :cool:

TURNED into a classic RED-BOARD...self-pat on the back :bang: :rolleyes: :mad:

Which of course will NOT gainn customer's!

Sammy,

R U kidding ?

Try & do something good for the fellow horseplayer & get a kick in the crotch....

I was simply giving Ian and his network their due.

I was in the War room from 11:30 AM on saturday giving my opinnion on the Belmont Card and even gave out an cold exacta at MTH upon request even though I was soley concentrating on the big pools at BEL. Funny, I didn't see you there, even though there was an open invitation.

Were you so very confident to bet against BB ?

I certainly wasn't, but when I was informed by someone whom I both respect and trust that a 2-5 shot was not right in a big field with a huge pool, who's figs were getting lower as the distances increased, I decided to go for it.

Class is something that doesn't just apply to racehorses. Thanks for the kind words.


John

[Tom]

Pretty cheap shot. Shows NO CLASS at all on your part.
However, typical.

[sammy the sage]

In the war room...yeah maybe so

But 80 % of the reader's of the Original post...MISSED your thoughts...cause we're already ON THE WAY to track/otb or doing something else...to sit thru.

Put shoe on OTHER foot...and think about it for a moment...

You are in PUBLIC view...it's your CHOICE to be so!

If you WANT CREDIBILTY...you can't pick and choose...

it's either a free day or paid...either way...PARTIAL/PRIVY info cannot be doled out in partial spurts...

That is if YOU WANT to be truely NOTED/SUCCESSFUL!

[Premier Turf Club]

Well a classy INITIAL post...rating's and all

TURNED into a classic RED-BOARD...self-pat on the back

Which of course will NOT gainn customer's!

Give me a break. :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

John, you know what they say, no good deed goes unpunished.

[Tom]

John has credibility. End of story.

[PaceAdvantage]

Man, if the PRESS is seeing that stuff, what is Dutrow....blind?Actually, the real question is, if the press is seeing that stuff, why aren't they reporting it...forget about Dutrow....

[sammy the sage]

FUNNY....John has POSTED his thoughts HERE...MANY times BEFORE the race of the week.

And yeah...he read me right...I bet against BB...had 6 horse's covered multiple times...got greedy and lost. :mad:

[Tom]

Actually, the real question is, if the press is seeing that stuff, why aren't they reporting it...forget about Dutrow....

One would wonder why they don't. :confused:
Maybe if they report the truth, doors close for them?

[sally]

So do you think, Dutrow knew his horse wasn't 100%, and told KD at the first sign of trouble-- let up?

[Premier Turf Club]

Actually, the real question is, if the press is seeing that stuff, why aren't they reporting it...forget about Dutrow....

That's a very valid question. It's the same people that said Pyro worked great for the Blue Grass when the clocker said he can barely move over poly.

I can tell you there is a lot of pressure for the media not to report anything bad. In fact one of our clockers almost got banned last year from a racetrack for giving horses bad work grades on a report that was sold online.

And I'm not implying that every observation I have gotten privately has been spot on. Our private clocker info for the BC two years ago was great; last year not so good. Many of the horses the clocker didn't like ran well. These comments are merely the opinions of those that observed. It is possible the comments we got about BB were wrong as well and it was something other than his feet that caused him to run poorly on Saturday.

[Trax21]

Ian,

Where is the Belmont clocker report that John mentions located? Is this part of the PTC Handicappping Info available on your site?

Thanks.

[PaceAdvantage]

So do you think, Dutrow knew his horse wasn't 100%, and told KD at the first sign of trouble-- let up?No. I think that was Kent being Kent.