The Ten Commandments of Horse Racing

[cj's dad]

When I first became involved I remember a friend giving me some pointers to follow and I would like to come up with a list of the 10 do's and dont's of handicapping:

2 examples he gave me:

These are examples only- no need to agree/dispute.

Don't bet a horse coming off of a long layoff entered in a 7 fur race; it's niether a sprint or a route.

Don't bet a horse doing something for the 1st time; turf/dirt---6f to 1 mile, etc....

You get the point--- what do you all think???

[KirisClown]

Don't bet a horse doing something it's never done before.. as the favorite.

[sammy the sage]

""Don't bet a horse doing something for the 1st time; turf/dirt---6f to 1 mile, etc""


Pedigree player's MAKE their BIGGEST scores HERE...so there will be disagreement w/this one!

[john del riccio]

ALWAYS give a consistent horse that earned a superior figure in his next to last start the benefit of the doubt if he had a bad race in his last start. The bad race gives you the price, the superioir figure shows the talent, and the consistency proves he is not a one hit wonder.


John

[Bruddah]

wearing front wraps for the first time, or who hasn't won wearing front wraps.

[lamboguy]

don't bet horses that win by many lengths that came out of weak fields

[Tom]

Don't leave your tickets in the SAMs.

Don't rush your bets - there's another race in 20 minutes. Be prepared.

Don't forget to look at the last page of the race PPs - especially if there ware two more horses listed there. :mad::rolleyes:

[Cangamble]

This one has nothing to do with handicapping.

If you are winning or losing it makes no difference:
Always tell your wife you are breaking even.

[ryesteve]

Understand the difference between trying to pick winners and trying to make money.

[46zilzal]

Understand the difference between trying to pick winners and trying to make money.
Succinct and at the heart of the entire game. PERFECTLY stated.

[cj's dad]

""Don't bet a horse doing something for the 1st time; turf/dirt---6f to 1 mile, etc""

Pedigree player's MAKE their BIGGEST scores HERE...so there will be disagreement w/this one!

That was merely an example-bad choice on my part. I actually have had some nice scores with the change of surface angle, particularly the dirt to turf with 2 particular sires.

[46zilzal]

Don't bet a horse doing something for the 1st time; turf/dirt---6f to 1 mile, etc....

You get the point--- what do you all think???
I make money all the time going against that second dictum, especially stretching out.

[Murph]

Know thy track as ye know thyself.

Select a race track or a racing circut and learn all you can about the qualities for winning a wager on that circut. Don't expand your gambling activity until you have mastered your circut or "home" track.

Murph

[toetoe]

Good point, sagebrush sam. :ThmbUp:

I think I would say:

Rule (11): Know when to break any of rules 1-10. A first-time-whatever horse would be backed only in a favorable context. So ...........................

Rule (11A): Context , context, context.

[OTM Al]

Always be open to learn new things. Never disparage someone else's technique because it is different than yours. Every technique works some of the time, including picking names. Pay attention when someone tells you how they came to a pick, there is a chance you might learn something profitable (unless of course it's because the horse shares a name with someone's sister's plumber...but even then you learned something if you need a plumber :) )

[OTM Al]

Here's another that just struck me from reading another thread:

No matter how good you are you will be wrong and most often more times than you are right. Check the chip on your shoulder at the gate.

[46zilzal]

No matter how good you are you will be wrong and most often more times than you are right. Check the chip on your shoulder at the gate.
THAT is a lesson learned early.

[thelyingthief]

bet winners. thou shalt only bet losers. i needeth the moneyeth.

tlt

[ddog]

Don't see how one could play for real without it.
Now , you don't need to go about brandishing it in others faces and trying to knock theirs off.

One needs supreme confidence in one's own course to play well.

Of course, you need to be open to things, but not too open, you can think you see too much.

Natural to see causes where they are not really.
We need to believe in them.

I don't know if that is not a chip , to me it is.

Nothing else matters as to rules , without the mind game in place.
You will never survive to benefit from the "rules" in the long run.

[john del riccio]

NEVER bet a horse that needs the lead to win unless it has at least a 2 length edge in pace over its competition AND has showed that early speed vs. a group of horses that is comparable to todays field. Many bad favorites can be exploited using thi sapproach; especially if their speed figure appears to be
better than the entire field. If they don't get the lead, or need to go to fast to get that lead, they won't run that same speed figure figure.

JOhn

[PeteKoch]

1. Never bet on anything that talks or drinks out of the toilet.

2a. No insight, no bet.

2b. No edge, no bet.

Hey, John, it's been a long time ('The Coin' and 'Nobodys Listening' days).

[john del riccio]

1. Never bet on anything that talks or drinks out of the toilet.

2a. No insight, no bet.

2b. No edge, no bet.

Hey, John, it's been a long time ('The Coin' and 'Nobodys Listening' days).

Pete,

How in the hell are you ? Do you still talk with Jeff ?

John

[PeteKoch]

Last time I saw Jeff was at a Lakewood Blue Claws game in 2006. A buddy of mine had been playing MTH with him in 2007, but hasn't seen him since November. I think he might have left NJ. I do know that he took down his website.

I see the great Mister P retired. I just started paying attention to the game again. Own any at the moment?

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't bet a Japanese horse second time off the plane, trying to win the Belmont Stakes in only his third career start, who has trouble switching leads in his workout, and works slower than a trotter....

[Kelso]

Don't expect good odds on a good horse to hold up after the break (or after the finish, even). :bang:

[BCOURTNEY]

1. Never lose money.
2. You, nor anyone else, nor any system can predict the future.
3. Diversifying is ignorance and fear of risk.
4. You do not need to take great risks to make great profits.
5. It is not risky to buy things at a fraction of their worth.
6. The market is always wrong, and always irrational.
7. Don't hesitate.
8. If you can't measure it you can't control it.
9. Always bet on horse's with nice bright white bridles on, they are getting ready to have their pictures taken in the winner's circle. ;)

[KMS]

Never let yourself get talked INTO or OUT OF a bet. It's okay to take other people's opinions into consideration, but once you've made your decision, don't let somebody change your mind on the way to the window.

ALWAYS double and triple check your wagers, and check one more time before post time. There's nothing worse than losing a bet due to a stupid mental lapse.

[ghostyapper]

Don't bet a horse dropping in class that finished top 2 his last race.

[Dan Montilion]

Never do never do/don't lists.

[Tom]

Thanks, Dan....now I can't not do this list because you told me not to not.:confused:

[KMS]

Don't bet a horse dropping in class that finished top 2 his last race.

Conventional wisdom says don't bet a class dropper after a good race, on the theory that there's something wrong with him and his connections are trying to unload him on some unsuspecting barn. OTOH, I've had some success with a spot play system that involves a horse that won its last race and is in easier company today, as defined by the trackmaster class rating.

[KingChas]

Read the business section lately? ;

Never bet your mortgage money on a horse!

I never did that

Thank god!....................... :jump:

[FlyinLate]

Don't leave your tickets in the SAMs.

Don't forget to look at the last page of the race PPs - especially if there ware two more horses listed there. :mad::rolleyes:

:lol: I've done both of these too many times :bang:

[KMS]

speaking of the DRF, I haven't looked at one of those in years. I used to have stacks and stacks of them--probably numbering in the hundreds at one point. I learned handicapping by going back over old PP's looking for angles and patterns. Times surely have changed...

[Tom]

I used to buy the Fomr everyday of the year.
I'd clips charts, save certain tracks together, never thow out anything.
Any time I wanted to know something, I couldnever find it.
Now, I buy it maybe a dozen times a year, mostly big days, like tomorrow.
In the 21st century, I have everythink in electronic forma.....still lost between a couple of hard drives!:bang:

But it's easier to search for stuff now and mot find it.

[Norm]

Here are ten of my favorites. There are lots more, but you have to start somewhere. A couple are repeats of what others have said but, that's o.k. because great 'cappers think alike and new-comers will get the point from the repetition.:)

1. Always read the 'Conditions' first. If you think all races are alike, play roulette instead.

2. Know your track better than you know yourself - no two tracks play the same way.

3. Never bet at 1-5. No horse is that good. Even Man O War lost one once.

4. Flat bets only. - Worst thing is to bet small on a winner and big on a loser.

5. Specialize ! - Don't be a 'capper of all races and a master of none.

6. Never try to 'get even' on a bad day - it will make you careless, just stop and wait for another day

7. Never, EVER, bet the grocery money on a horse race, crap happens.

8. Review every race you bet on, win or lose, learn from what you did, good or bad.

9. Real estate is location, location, location; handicapping is records, records, records. If your wife isn't complaining about the stacks of records you keep, then you don't have enough.

10. Bet patterns; not speed, not class, just patterns.

[tribecaagent]

1. NEVER bet a horse coming off a perfect trip win.

2. NEVER bet a horse coming off a win AGAINST A BIAS = Taxing effort.

3. NEVER bet a first time starter with front wraps on.

4. NEVER bet a claiming horse that is DROPPING off a win.

5. NEVER bet a horse coming off a 12+ month layoff.

6. NEVER go out drinking with friends in the midst of a hot streak = screws
with your intuition.


I really enjoy posts such as this. Thanks everyone.

[KMS]

3. Never bet at 1-5. No horse is that good. Even Man O War lost one once.

.

The only time I ever bet on Cigar was when he got beat to end his win streak.

[Kelso]

10. Bet patterns; not speed, not class, just patterns.Would you please provide an example or ten? Thank you.

[HUSKER55]

Never chase lost money. There is always tomorrow. I always bet $6 combo tickets the first three races and if I haven't made any money I quit until tomorrow. By grace I am still in the black. I think of it as testing the waters.---------


husker55

:)

[Norm]

Would you please provide an example or ten? Thank you.
While pace, speed and class can be elements in a pattern, they do not usually point out winners by themselves a high percentage of the time. You need a broader picture. An example might be a 4 y.o filly, 4 races away from a maiden win, not so fast out of the gate but a final time of 1:11 2/5 (and out of the money) in an N1X $5K claimer last out at MTH (a hard, fast track) shipping in for a $4K 6f N2L at FL(a deep, slow track), is the only shipper that fits the description and is ridden by one of the top 5 jockeys. There are many high-win % patterns to play like this one, but all the elements of the pattern must be present, not just the 'big three'.

New-comers are usually looking for an easier way to find winners . . . good luck !
Speed and class are elements here but so is an understanding of how N1Xs are carded at MTH (usually includes N2L for 4y.o's) and how they draw a different kind of field than a straight-forward N2L at FL; the considerable difference in the racing surfaces, the relative fitness of a horse less than 5 races away from a maiden win, et. al., etc. Perhaps one of the 'ten commandments' should have been "learn how to play the game before you bet on it." Could anyone enjoy baseball if they didn't know what the infield fly rule was ? Same goes for knowing the difference between an N1X, an N2L and the many other condition designations, common knowledge among regulars but troublesome details, usually ignored, by new-comers. They are all elements in a pattern.