Tomorrows Washington Post Beyer column

[rgustafson]

Don't always agree with what Andy says, but it is interesting to see one of the most recognizable racing writers around write a column like this. The last line of the column says it all as to his feelings about Big Brown and his connections.

[menifee]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95176.html


Here is a link to the article. Very interesting read.

[cj's dad]

Don't always agree with what Andy says, but it is interesting to see one of the most recognizable racing writers around write a column like this. The last line of the column says it all as to his feelings about Big Brown and his connections.

Could you summarize ??

[ceejay]

Not much doubt what he really thinks, eh?

[cj's dad]

Could you summarize ??

The DRF post beat me to the punch- I type slow.

[46zilzal]

Yes what gives??

[DeanT]

Beyer has some cajones. One can agree or disagree, but we're damn lucky to be able to have a guy like that to read.

The last line?

The only admirable figure in the Belmont winner's circle will be Big Brown.

[46zilzal]

The only admirable figure in the Belmont winner's circle will be Big Brown.
No surprise there.

[dylbert]

Bravo, Andy! Borrowing from late Howard Cosell, Andy exhibits "tells it like it is" journalism.

Banzai, Casino Drive --> Godzilla storms Gotham!

[cj]

The guy can write. I wish racing had more real journalists like him instead of the plethora of kiss asses and yes men.

[menifee]

[QUOTE=misscashalot]For all of us who refuse to sign up with DRF. After all, who wants to give them their Social Security number and mother maidne name? Not me.

Here the article directly for the Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/17/AR2008051702736_pf.html


Hey you posted the wrong article. This is from last week. The link to DRF is free. You don't have to sign up to read the article.

[Bruddah]

The guy can write. I wish racing had more real journalists like him instead of the plethora of kiss asses and yes men.

You said it for me too, Bruddah. :ThmbUp:

[misscashalot]

sorry here's the latest


Lots of attention - not all of it good

By ANDREW BEYER

People in the racing business hope every year to see a Triple Crown winner who can stimulate the public's and the media's interest in the sport. Big Brown's bid to make history has indeed attracted widespread attention, but it has often been attention that the industry doesn't want, because the 2008 Triple Crown has sometimes shown racing at its worst. The series began with a filly, Eight Belles, dying on the track at Churchill Downs, and it is likely to end with the dismaying sight of owner Michael Iavarone and trainer Rick Dutrow celebrating in the winner's circle at Belmont Park.

Horse racing has always attracted its share of rogues and charlatans, but few have been as brazen as Iavarone, co-CEO of the IEAH Stable. Iavarone presented himself as an investment banker who had made a fortune on Wall Street and was turning his business acumen to the horse racing game. The media lapped up his story, and even publications such as The New York Times and Business Week credulously reported that he had prospered on Wall Street.

The rest here, for now, until I get the Washington Post link:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/95176.html

[HUSKER55]

Perhaps someone will help me out here. If BB never has pressure on him then exactly what makes the breeding rights so valuable? Wouldn't you think the other owners and horsemen would know the score?

This horse is going to retire in what, six races with full honors having never been put under pressure or gasping for air at then end of the race.

The other point I do not understand is that if BB is such a good horse for breeding then what about those feet problems. Are those injuries he sustained in the barn or are these hereditary problems. I do not know.

I mean, I can beat Bret Farve playing football if you remove the opponents from the field when I am there.

I hope I made my point cleear.

Any information would be much appreciated.

Thank you boys and girls.

husker55

:)

[misscashalot]

same ole bull$hit from Beyer. He, a tout, and he talks about charlatens. This business as well as the stock market has always been moved by those who had an advantage, crooked or otherwise, over everyone else. What Beyer is saying is nothing new...so what? If Beyer had to make a living outside of horse racing, he'd starve. Dutrow is suspect...BB's connections are tainted... Beyer is a waste. Who cares what he has to say anyway? BB wins or loses..life goes on. Same goes for the tout Watchmaker. Anyone who thinks they can profit financially by taking the advice from these touts are being taken.

[JustRalph]

same ole bull$hit from Beyer. He, a tout, and he talks about charlatens. This business as well as the stock market has always been moved by those who had an advantage, crooked or otherwise, over everyone else. What Beyer is saying is nothing new...so what? If Beyer had to make a living outside of horse racing, he'd starve. Dutrow is suspect...BB's connections are tainted... Beyer is a waste. Who cares what he has to say anyway? BB wins or loses..life goes on. Same goes for the tout Watchmaker. Anyone who thinks they can profit financially by taking the advice from these touts are being taken.

Wow~ Who pissed in your corn flakes? Have a nice day........or a better one that is............ :ThmbUp:

I like that Beyer has the balls to say it...........

[misscashalot]

Wow~ Who pissed in your corn flakes? Have a nice day........or a better one that is............ :ThmbUp:

I like that Beyer has the balls to say it...........

Ralphie...thanks for your best wishes.

[overthehill]

two comments about beyer: I wasnt a believer until the derby despite his awesome fla derby win. The way he has won many of his races shows that he is a superhorse. Also Beyer made similar comments about Seattle Slew as a 3 year old. He might have been more favorable about Spectacular Bid because of his Maryland bias I cant recall. Also his comments about the need to prove himself against older are pretty spurious too. Affirmed lost to Seattle Slew, I believe Spectacular Bid may have lost to Affirmed , they were still superstars.

[chickenhead]

that's why Andy is a legend.

[turfnsport]

What Beyer is saying is nothing new...so what? If Beyer had to make a living outside of horse racing, he'd starve.

Yeah,

I guess his Harvard education would not come in handy.

Wow miss, you are really a dolt.

[PaceAdvantage]

Excellent piece by Beyer once again. He was fair in pointing out every single blemish, but he also doled out a little respect:

Even Dutrow's severest detractors have to admit, however grudgingly, that he has distinguished himself since he has been in the public eye with Big Brown. He has been entertaining, candid, and disarmingly frank about his own past malfeasances. He has handled the colt with marvelous finesse, using an extraordinarily light regimen to get him ready for his powerful Preakness victory.

[asH]

Fair is showing innate weaknesses of a system to allow ‘ cheating’ instead of singling a group. Problem with this article is that a first time reader attracted by the ambiance of Big Brown’s TC attempt will focus their attitude’s on Dutrow’s group instead of the system that allow these behaviors. I as a capper don’t condone cheating, I have to work hard for all my gains. The contradiction is that this same system that allows ‘cheating’ makes dam(I made a funny) sure that I cant cheat, that I pay; I get no breaks. Beyers article is either shortsighted or intended, but not fair....Harvard??

[Dahoss9698]

same ole bull$hit from Beyer. He, a tout, and he talks about charlatens. This business as well as the stock market has always been moved by those who had an advantage, crooked or otherwise, over everyone else. What Beyer is saying is nothing new...so what? If Beyer had to make a living outside of horse racing, he'd starve. Dutrow is suspect...BB's connections are tainted... Beyer is a waste. Who cares what he has to say anyway? BB wins or loses..life goes on. Same goes for the tout Watchmaker. Anyone who thinks they can profit financially by taking the advice from these touts are being taken.

Wow. Talk about missing the point.

[Bruddah]

two comments about beyer: I wasnt a believer until the derby despite his awesome fla derby win. The way he has won many of his races shows that he is a superhorse. Also Beyer made similar comments about Seattle Slew as a 3 year old. He might have been more favorable about Spectacular Bid because of his Maryland bias I cant recall. Also his comments about the need to prove himself against older are pretty spurious too. Affirmed lost to Seattle Slew, I believe Spectacular Bid may have lost to Affirmed , they were still superstars.

and I look like an Olympic sprint champion, when I race my 3yo grand son. What you see is a real lack of serious competition. I said it before the Ky Derby and I say it again, this is the worst crop of 3yo's I have witnessed in 40+ years of handicapping. My statement was ridiculed by several, when first written, but many Industry Experts have since jumped on the band wagon.

[jonnielu]

that's why Andy is a legend.

Legendary whiner and excuse maker, if the ability to run a distance of ground is beyond Andy's understanding, it is obviously because of drugs, no doubt BB is pumped full of drugs. It couldn't possibly be that Dutrow might know something about the way horses run, that could mean that Andy doesn't.

Bad for the image of thoroughbred racing? Andy

Isn't he the one that titled a chapter - Larceny, in the 70's.

Isn't he the one that stated that Kentucky racing must exist solely for the benefit of the horsemen? And now, it is drugs, drugs drugs. Just because he still doesn't understand how horses run a distance of ground.

He influences the entire industry to breed strictly for "speed" for twenty years, and then snivels about fragility when the focus on speed naturally manifests itself in injury.

People lose interest in horse racing because there is not enough "speed" to suit them and Andy can't give Big Brown the rating he deserves because it could point out how he pulls them out of his butt. All he can do is recognize the horse after he poo-pooed his lack of experience going into the Derby. Now that even he sees that the horse can run, it must be the drugs.

Lap it up, Andy can certainly serve it up.

jdl

[Dahoss9698]

Pretty easy to tell who the jealous ones are, isn't it?

[turfnsport]

Bad for the image of thoroughbred racing? Andy

jdl

Yeah, all the problems in the industry must be Andy's fault....lol..

Get you head out of the sand Horseplayer U.

Andy has written 100's of columns on behalf of horseplayers and has been a positive influence in the game.

He tells it like it is....Maybe you should teach that at your so called "University"

Give me a fkking break.....lol...

[asH]

Beyer has been waiting for BB to fail for awhile now, It's apparent BB didnt live down to his figures, so the whole 3year old crop has to suffer....if the blind could see.

[chickenhead]

don't worry Johny, you're approaching legendary status of your own.

[cj]

I knew it was only a matter of time before someone moronicly attributed the article to some hidden relationship with Beyer figures. I guess it doesn't matter that Big Brown has had the best Beyer figures heading into all of his races.

[jonnielu]

I knew it was only a matter of time before someone moronicly attributed the article to some hidden relationship with Beyer figures. I guess it doesn't matter that Big Brown has had the best Beyer figures heading into all of his races.

Of course he has a higher figure, but the same gap should exist in the figures that exist between Big Brown's tail and whichever runs second. It is what it is, it becomes skewed when Andy adds his opinion.

Big Brown has the ability he has, to assign a number that reflected it accurately, or even close to it, his number should be a bit higher then the rest of the bunch.
But, he can't give the accurate number because that would say or at least suggest that his pre-derby assessment was off. Which couldn't be the case because he didn't see Big Brown coming very well off of the inaccurate number he put on the FL. Derby.

If Big Brown was a 120 while everyone else were 100+ down to 90 then I could think that the numbers made some sense with the results, and assume they were at least close to an accurate reflection of a horses ability to run a distance of ground.

jdl

[1st time lasix]

Racing is full of opinions...that is why there is a tote board...underlays....and overlays. I absolutely agree with those {including Beyer}that this is the worst bunch of three year old competetors I have ever seen on the triple crown trail. In my humble opinion.....he is merely "the best house in a bad neighborhood." I enjoy the game....all aspects of it and I would truly love to pull for him...... but Big Brown's connections prevent me from emotionally getting behind them. To each his own. I also absolutely disagree with those that think a triple crown win will "save" racing. {CNBC headline} It will have very little effect except for maybe the tv ratings around 6 pm Saturday. It might even sell a few more tickets at the Travers or breeders cup should he continue on. Racing has serious problems. Too numerous to list. Big Brown win,..or. lose...will likely not fix any of them. Unfortunately on the other hand.....a breakdown would likely be drastic enough for some in depth sorely needed action by racing jurisdictions and a call from congress for an oversight of some kind.

[asH]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/17/AR2008051702736.html?hpid=moreheadlines

Hard to Measure
By Andrew Beyer (http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/andrew+beyer/)
Sunday, May 18, 2008; Page D01
...........Big Brown's performance surely gave the impression that his potential is limitless. Indeed, so did his runaway Kentucky Derby victory. But experienced race-watchers and handicappers know that these win-under-a-hammerlock victories are frequently deceptive. In 2006, Bernardini captured the Preakness and a series of major stakes races so easily that it appeared he could sprout wings and fly if his jockey ever turned him loose. But when he finally encountered a formidable opponent, Invasor, in the Breeders' Cup Classic, he didn't show a new dimension to his talent. Invasor beat him decisively. It is an enduring truth of the game: Horses don't prove much by winning easy. They prove themselves by beating good competition.
Big Brown has not yet faced rivals who can challenge him. The supporting cast in the 133rd Preakness was a pitiful group, with only two graded stakes winners among them. The competition was so weak that bettors made Gayego the second choice in the wagering, even though he had lost the Derby by 36 3/4 lengths. The Derby field had been an unusually weak one as well. And in the race that marked Big Brown's emergence as a leading 3-year-old, the Florida Derby, his competition was negligible.

In his five-race career, Big Brown still has not beaten a horse of real quality, nor has he been fast enough to prove he is a horse for the ages. His Kentucky Derby time was on par with recent winners such as Street Sense; his Preakness time of 1 minute 54.8 seconds on a lightning-fast Pimlico track was undistinguished, thanks to Desormeaux's restraint.

Of course, it's not Big Brown's fault that he was born into a sub-par thoroughbred generation. But if the colt is going to have his name linked with the likes of Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat and Citation -- the last four Triple Crown winners -- racing fans want to see him do something more than beat bad horses handily.

Perhaps Big Brown finally will get a challenge when he faces the intriguing Casino Drive three weeks hence. A superbly bred half-brother to two Belmont Stakes winners, the colt won his racing debut in Japan and then captured a prep for the Belmont by five lengths. However, the definitive test for Big Brown -- as for most 3-year-olds -- ought to come when he faces older horses in the fall. If he runs against Curlin, the 2007 Preakness winner and horse of the year, nobody will ever again question the quality of his opposition.

[cj]

Of course he has a higher figure, but the same gap should exist in the figures that exist between Big Brown's tail and whichever runs second. It is what it is, it becomes skewed when Andy adds his opinion.



The gap you mention is fixed and is determined by beaten lengths and the distance of the race. I'm sure you know that. The top figure is debatable, but also largely influenced by other races on the card.

The article had nothing to do with Beyer figures, yet the few who seem to hate Beyer for whatever reason, and you seem to be at the top of that list, always want to turn it into a figure debate.

Beyer and Crist are the only two the constantly champion the bettor. If you don't like him, you can go read some Jay Hovdey fluff piece and be content.

[Tom]

The Beyer is a speed number, not a performance or ability number. It measures one race.

Do the Yankees perform at 110% every game?
The lose many games every year, so are they a losing club, based on one loss?
The overall record is what matters. Ability is potential, speed figures are records of what actually happened. I suspect when BB meets something better, he will throw out a big number. I see races everyday where front runners throw out pace figs of 88, 85, 90, 82, then every so often, when they need to, they run 100, 105, 98. Piont being, not every horse has to run full tilt every race, nor even can. Knowing the ones who can when they need to is what we wait for.

Did Mohamed Ali go all out every fight? Did he fight Joe Stiff with the same intensity he fought Joe Frazier? Rope-a-dope, boxings equivalent of a slow paced race.

[GameTheory]

The gap you mention is fixed and is determined by beaten lengths and the distance of the race. I'm sure you know that. The top figure is debatable, but also largely influenced by other races on the card.

The article had nothing to do with Beyer figures, yet the few who seem to hate Beyer for whatever reason, and you seem to be at the top of that list, always want to turn it into a figure debate.

Beyer and Crist are the only two the constantly champion the bettor. If you don't like him, you can go read some Jay Hovdey fluff piece and be content.I have never liked Beyer -- hate is too strong, but definitely not a fan. It has nothing to do with his figures, and whether that affects his judgement about other things. (Although that is certainly possible.) And while he may "champion the bettor", I'm not sure his overall influence has actually been positive. I've always thought of him as the poster boy for the stereotype of the degenerate gambler.

As to the figures in a general sense, an interesting thought was brought up above. I wonder if the "speed figure era" ushered in by Beyer HAS affected the breeding practices of the industry? Maybe, maybe not, but I don't blame him for that because if he hadn't published his speed figures, then someone else would have. Although if his figures didn't have a subjective component, there would probably have been a lot less arguments about these things over the years.

[toetoe]

Bruddah,

By your logic, Afleet Alex was a plowhorse for not winning his Preakness/Belmont by 31 lengths. You're blaming a nice horse for the weakness of a crop.

[Tom]

I think you have to look beyond a single race. Was Secretariat the great horse who won the Belmont by 5 miles, or wash the one who Onion made cry? Or the one who lost the Wood?

Surley his reputation was not diminished by those loses.

[46zilzal]

I think you have to look beyond a single race. Was Secretariat the great horse who won the Belmont by 5 miles, or wash the one who Onion made cry? Or the one who lost the Wood?

Surley his reputation was not diminished by those loses.
He was ill before the Whitney.

[cj]

He was ill before the Whitney.

So say the connections. He was supposedly ill for the Wood too. Great horses lose races. In the old days it wasn't a big deal. Now it seems to be some huge black mark for some reason.

[asH]

:confused: Figure debate... Please. If there is one thing I know since posting here is that there could never be a logical debate about the relevance of figures with out it being reduced to a name calling flame session. Most times I avoid these topics, for knowledge of the outcome. I have no pleasure in bashing or name calling.

The Beyers title speaks for itself...I dont have time nor the energy to hate.

reread some of your posts on figures, most (and I'm going to get bashed for saying) show the uncertainty of figures, hhow in hell can you believe in something that no one agrees on...1+1=2, but not with figures......
and I'll leave it at that, I'm not trying to convert anyone...all I have is an opinion


figures are the blackbox of handicapping those that cant buy!

[asH]

The gap you mention is fixed and is determined by beaten lengths and the distance of the race. I'm sure you know that. The top figure is debatable, but also largely influenced by other races on the card.

The article had nothing to do with Beyer figures, yet the few who seem to hate Beyer for whatever reason, and you seem to be at the top of that list, always want to turn it into a figure debate.

Beyer and Crist are the only two the constantly champion the bettor. If you don't like him, you can go read some Jay Hovdey fluff piece and be content.

figure debate...who added the icon to my previous message??

[chickenhead]

f there is one thing I know since posting here is that there could never be a logical debate about the relevance of figures with out it being reduced to a name calling flame session.

you were blatantly wrong about what the figures actually were. It has nothing to do with an opinion about their relevance.

It's apparent BB didnt live down to his figures...

[Tom]

He was ill before the Whitney.
Irrelevant. He lost.
What if no one knew that?
Point being, when you look at his overall records, a couple of losses are dwarfed by his big races. You don't use off races to evaluate his ability.

[Tom]

:confused: Figure debate... Please. If there is one thing I know since posting here is that there could never be a logical debate about the relevance of figures with out it being reduced to a name calling flame session. Most times I avoid these topics, for knowledge of the outcome. I have no pleasure in bashing or name calling.



Uh, then don't do it.:bang: Your tirade against Beyer and Dutrow only distracted from the really good ideas being presented in this thread by two very good figure makers. If you don't agree, you are free to not participate.

[thelyingthief]

an interesting article by Quinn, published in DRF's Simulcast Daily, contains the following:

"As a mundane matter of fact, the colt’s final fractions have looked like so:

Gulfstream allowance (one mile) 25.80

Florida Derby (1 1/8 miles) 38.00

Kentucky Derby (1 1/4 miles) 25.40

Preakness (1 3/16 miles) 44.60

No matter the uproar from the Big Brown corners, these are not the marks of the champion. The Florida Derby looked to be special as the race unfolded. In its aftermath, alas, the final three furlongs left something to be desired. No doubt about it, the 38 flat registers as truly slow. "

truly slow likewise the proper label for the other races, too.

Say whatever you will about the quality of competition, etc., these are important numbers to consider when evaluating the strength of BB's performances. It would be entirely apropos should the Japanese owned Casino Drive defeat Big Brown in the Belmont. At some point the steady stream of quality blood lines in American horseflesh--hell, anything--sold to foreign interests, which has noticeably compromised the local game, should, and perhaps now has, come due. Americans are a people as cheap as clay. And it is simply a consequence of this lack of substance in their world view that is found in their willingness to embrace the dictum "Profit at any cost" as a morality. Most of the problems we now face, and not only in horse-racing, can be derived from it. I don't see how anyone with an ounce of heart in their chest can hear the word "industrialization" applied to the breeding and racing of horses without being troubled. And, no matter what their personal animus to Beyer, or the hypocrisy of the man, not nodding ruefully to the points he makes.

tlt

[ryesteve]

The Florida Derby looked to be special as the race unfolded. In its aftermath, alas, the final three furlongs left something to be desired. No doubt about it, the 38 flat registers as truly slow.I'm somewhat of a BB skeptic myself, but expecting him to close much faster, considering he went the opening half in 45 4/5 from Post 12, strikes me as surprisingly foolish, given the source.

[46zilzal]

I am certainly NOT a Big Brown fan due to his connections, BUT having said that, when you blow the doors off competition early, you can coast home without having to keep your foot on the gas.

[thelyingthief]

you're right. what's up with that stupid secretariat anyway, winning by 31 and setting a world's record at the distance. coast home. be american.

tlt.

[toetoe]

Thief,

Don't forget that Arcaro bashed Seattle Slew for a final quarter of 26-plus in the KD. Don't forget Secretariat beat nothing. Give me any champ and I'll carry the debate on the bashing side, if required. :)

[46zilzal]

Thief,

Don't forget that Arcaro bashed Seattle Slew for a final quarter of 26-plus in the KD. Don't forget Secretariat beat nothing.
Cougar II, Tentam, Kennedy Road, Riva Ridge, Forego, Key to the Mint, Linda's Chief, Sham, and several others and then there are all the track and world's records.

Charles Hatton: "But Secretariat is the most capable horse we ever saw, and geriatrics defeat any thought of seeing his like again."

Australian trainer Tom Smith: "He is incredible, an absolutely perfect horse."

[toetoe]

I'm amazed that it's necessary in this case, but I'm obligated to make myself understood.

Secretariat beat nothing IN THE BELMONT STAKES. I'm considering Sham, mishandled from the start, as "nothing" in this one-race context.

I am definitely NOT talking about subsequent races versus older, on turf, etc. Sheesh. Get it ? :confused:

[Pace Cap'n]

Geriatrics????????

[NoDayJob]

same ole bull$hit from Beyer.

An excellent assessment of Mr. Beyer--- If he could sell his B.S. for $ 0.10 a pound he could retire a multimillionaire many times over. Thanks for your candor.

[jonnielu]

The gap you mention is fixed and is determined by beaten lengths and the distance of the race. I'm sure you know that. The top figure is debatable, but also largely influenced by other races on the card.

The article had nothing to do with Beyer figures, yet the few who seem to hate Beyer for whatever reason, and you seem to be at the top of that list, always want to turn it into a figure debate.

Beyer and Crist are the only two the constantly champion the bettor. If you don't like him, you can go read some Jay Hovdey fluff piece and be content.

It seems to me that everything in the sport has to do with Beyer figures. Nobody can decide whether BB is an exceptional horse, or just better then the rest because of the influence of the Beyer figures.

When was the last time a horse won the derby from post #20 with little experience? But, we shouldn't think much of the horse because the figures just aren't that high. And the owner may be a BS'er. As if there has never been another BS'er that got so far.

Did the Beyer's show Rags and Curlin shoulder to shoulder in last years Belmont stretch? Is the Belmont Stakes about speed anyway?

Champion of the bettor? Why is the bettor still surprised by Birdstones, and double digit place payoffs, not to mention the consistent parade of 10 - 1 winners. I think that the bettor would be better championed by more accuracy.

Oh yeah, it must be the juice. That's a great way to promote the sport, and champion the bettor. Let the bettor think every horse that performs well in spite of low Beyer figures, must be on the juice.

Do you think that we could have the possibility another Smarty Jones Belmont coming? What if BB and CD fight it out all the way, and Dennis of Cork or Tale of Ekati nail them both at the wire. Should we tell the bettor that it can work like that with a 1 1/2 mile race, or should we tell him that it must be the juice because the other two horses have low Beyer's.

You want to know what I've got against the Beyer's? It is that the bettor doesn't know any more after the race then he did before the race. If a rating were accurate, it would reflect what is actually happening. After 30 some years, the Beyer's don't do that any better then time did.

jdl

[ryesteve]

After 30 some years, the Beyer's don't do that any better then time did.I'm willing to bet that in any sizable sample, the horse with the better Beyer will win more often than the horse with the better raw final time.

[turfnsport]

It seems to me that everything in the sport has to do with Beyer figures. Nobody can decide whether BB is an exceptional horse, or just better then the rest because of the influence of the Beyer figures.

When was the last time a horse won the derby from post #20 with little experience? But, we shouldn't think much of the horse because the figures just aren't that high. And the owner may be a BS'er. As if there has never been another BS'er that got so far.

Did the Beyer's show Rags and Curlin shoulder to shoulder in last years Belmont stretch? Is the Belmont Stakes about speed anyway?

Champion of the bettor? Why is the bettor still surprised by Birdstones, and double digit place payoffs, not to mention the consistent parade of 10 - 1 winners. I think that the bettor would be better championed by more accuracy.

Oh yeah, it must be the juice. That's a great way to promote the sport, and champion the bettor. Let the bettor think every horse that performs well in spite of low Beyer figures, must be on the juice.

Do you think that we could have the possibility another Smarty Jones Belmont coming? What if BB and CD fight it out all the way, and Dennis of Cork or Tale of Ekati nail them both at the wire. Should we tell the bettor that it can work like that with a 1 1/2 mile race, or should we tell him that it must be the juice because the other two horses have low Beyer's.

You want to know what I've got against the Beyer's? It is that the bettor doesn't know any more after the race then he did before the race. If a rating were accurate, it would reflect what is actually happening. After 30 some years, the Beyer's don't do that any better then time did.

jdl

Wow...that post is so ignorant its scary.

IMHO Beyer figures have less influence than ever before. If you took a poll of most horseplayers, many use BRIS numbers (hey the PP's are free), or Equibase figures that are in the programs...more sophisticated horselayers are using data from HDW....many owners and some heavy hitting horseplayers are more influenced by Thorographs and the Sheets than by Beyer figures.

As someone that made my own figures for years (based mostly on Beyers ideas), your statements that Beyers are less reliable than raw time is just plain idiotic.

BB earned a 109 Beyer in the Derby...seems like a reasonable number to me

Last few Derby winners BSF
Street Sense 110
Barbaro 111
Giacomo 100
Smarty Jones 107
Funny Cide 108

You have such a hard-on for Beyer you should see a doctor for that four hour erection.

[Tom]

an interesting article by Quinn, published in DRF's Simulcast Daily, contains the following:


Gulfstream allowance (one mile) 25.80

Florida Derby (1 1/8 miles) 38.00

Kentucky Derby (1 1/4 miles) 25.40

Preakness (1 3/16 miles) 44.60



I thik Quinn is trying to force that data to make his point. He uses thelast fractions in the frist three races, and then he comes up with 44.6 for the Preakness, a shorter race than the 25.4 10 furlong Derby.

Sloppy work on his part, puts his whole article in question for me. I do not like sloppy work by alleged professionals.

[asH]

Tom,

read the thread before you write.
thanks

[Raida]

Beyers article is flawed, he admits that BB has ran against a weak crop of three years olds. I suppose it it were not for Sham, the same could have been said early on about the Big Red in 1973. And it was not UNTIL the Belmont that the world became aware what type of historical horse he was to become. ( The measure of greatness, all triple crown winners are and forever shall be compared too)

After the Derby we watched Big Brown cooling out on the back side, and throw his jockey, and attack the lead pony as if to yell at all the world "Who wants a piece of me now". I think this years Belmont will be exciting and we will see what type of historical horse Big Brown will become.

[jonnielu]

I'm willing to bet that in any sizable sample, the horse with the better Beyer will win more often than the horse with the better raw final time.

That's fantastic Steve, wouldn't it be even more wonderful if it told you something about the other 60% of winners? Something besides they are all on the juice, or everyone of them managed to avoid the quicksand?

jdl

[jonnielu]

Wow...that post is so ignorant its scary.

IMHO Beyer figures have less influence than ever before. If you took a poll of most horseplayers, many use BRIS numbers (hey the PP's are free), or Equibase figures that are in the programs...more sophisticated horselayers are using data from HDW....many owners and some heavy hitting horseplayers are more influenced by Thorographs and the Sheets than by Beyer figures.

As someone that made my own figures for years (based mostly on Beyers ideas), your statements that Beyers are less reliable than raw time is just plain idiotic.

BB earned a 109 Beyer in the Derby...seems like a reasonable number to me

Last few Derby winners BSF
Street Sense 110
Barbaro 111
Giacomo 100
Smarty Jones 107
Funny Cide 108

You have such a hard-on for Beyer you should see a doctor for that four hour erection.

What I said was, the Beyers/speed figures (whoever coughs them up) do not indicate what is actually going on, any better then raw time did.

They certainly, have not brought any sophistication to the bettor by suggesting to the bettor that he focus primarily on a single factor that is called speed. How sophisticated is the bettor when he is surprised that the "speed" horse is consistently nailed by the "slow" horse that executed the distance more efficiently.

How sophisticated are the figures, if they do not show which may execute the distance more efficiently.

My proposition is perhaps too simple, if the figures were sound, they would be capable of teaching you how and why Exceller beat two triple crown winners in 1978 JCGC, and you might not have been surprised when Birdstone beat Smarty. You might even understand it without having to run down the sport for it to make sense.

In summary, if the figures were sound, they could bring you to the level of sophistication that you seek, and to a better understanding of the sport, then that of "if the high figure loses, it is the track, or the juice."

jdl

[ryesteve]

That's fantastic Steve, wouldn't it be even more wonderful if it told you something about the other 60% of winners?
You mean you can pick every winner via raw times?

[asH]

BB earned a 109 Beyer in the Derby...seems like a reasonable number to me

Last few Derby winners BSF
Street Sense 110
Barbaro 111
Giacomo 100
Smarty Jones 107
Funny Cide 108
BB 109

.

would someone please explain what it is these numbers describe.

[Tom]

I don't know anyone who says the high figure horse wins or else it is juice. That is just not how good players use speed figures. I am always looking for thehorse who can run the high fig today, not who ran it last time. Many times, the high fig horse is an absolute throw out. The high fig last out is just a plce to start.

[thelyingthief]

I thik Quinn is trying to force that data to make his point. He uses thelast fractions in the frist three races, and then he comes up with 44.6 for the Preakness, a shorter race than the 25.4 10 furlong Derby.

Sloppy work on his part, puts his whole article in question for me. I do not like sloppy work by alleged professionals.


hmm. it doesn't matter what the distance is by which you measure, only that it be applied uniformly. if he is slow, compared to other quality runners, at ALL these ff distances then he is SLOW at all these distances. we talk about the final fractions at 7f and 6.5f against a standard for THOSE distances. besides, and correct me if i'm wrong, all the ff distances listed are at least an eighth, whereas the final fraction at 1 and 3/16 is less than that. frankly, i don't understand your complaint.


tlt

[DrugS]

i don't understand your complaint.

I think it's a little silly to knock Big Brown for his lack of sensational come home time.

He ran the fastest final quarter of any horse in the Kentucky Derby - however, since there was a strong stretch headwind on Derby day - the naked fraction won't look fast.

He also dominated the final 3.5 furlongs in the Preakness. The naked come home time might not have been fast - but the horses who were with him on the pace (Riley Tucker and Gayego) finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - and both were more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. They had the compareable trips - and how did they come home?

Big Brown's come home time wasn't sensational in the FLA Derby - however, he had to wisely be rushed out of VERY TOUGH post position 12 at GP by Kent D. to establish a good early position. He ran strong early fractions - and perfect trip Smooth Air was the only horse left in the TV screen at the end.

In his comeback race at GP - Big Brown was involved in a 3 way pace battle through strong early fractions - he fractured his two rivals (the 2nd and 3rd choices in the wagering) both of them were virtually eased and off the board - while he won by double digits in hand. Once again, maybe his naked final time fraction wasn't fast ... but go look upon how the horses who had comparable trips to him came home.

Finally, in his turf race at Saratoga, he exploded through the stretch.. winning his debut for trainer Pat Reynolds - a guy who wins with a first time starter once every blue moon.

Big Brown's got a big long stride - it measured 26+ feet when he worked a 1/4 mile in 21.20 at the KEE April 2yo sale. He has the early speed to fracture his pace rivals if they are the horses to beat - if the closers are the horses to beat - he has the ability to rate off the speed and finish hard. He's tactically gifted.

The chink in the armour for the Belmont is his health and only his health. He ran down in the Preakness, bleeding through both back bandages...and he had a subsquent quarter crack.

I'm going to try and beat him because of the health related questions - however, I think people who want to knock his come home time are really grasping at straws.

[46zilzal]

[QUOTE=Raida] And it was not UNTIL the Belmont that the world became aware what type of historical horse he was to become. ( The measure of greatness, all triple crown winners are and forever shall be compared too)

[QUOTE]
bull shit: 25 1/5, 24, 23 4/5, 23 2/5 and 23 was all it took to put this one in a class by himself. Never before.....

[DrugS]

What I said was, the Beyers/speed figures (whoever coughs them up) do not indicate what is actually going on, any better then raw time did.

Huh?

A speed figure is basically a raw time that takes into account the speed of a race track the race was run on.

I can understand if people want to argue that figures have become overrated because bettors base their entire game around them - but to say they "don't indicate what is actually going on, any better then raw time" - that is lunacy.

[DrugS]

would someone please explain what it is these numbers describe.

How fast a horse ran that day.

[asH]

How fast a horse ran that day.

thanks for responding,

Drugs, final time tells me how fast a horse ran on a particular day.

[DrugS]

But it doesn't take into account the speed of the track.

A horse can run six furlongs in 1:08.40 at Turf Paradice and six furlongs in 1:11.80 at Mountaineer - and have run virtually identical races.

[asH]

like an equalizer from track to track. Drugs, I appreciate your response, and am not trying to put you in a spot or anything. Do you create your own figures or do you use others?

[DrugS]

like an equalizer from track to track. Drugs, I appreciate your response, and am not trying to put you in a spot or anything. Do you create your own figures or do you use others?

Right now - I am making my own.

A lot of times in the past - I just would review days when I did my trip notes and I'd make note if it was an easy day or hard day to make figures.

If it was a straight forward day - I'd take the figures at face value.

If it was a day where funky things happened with the weather - or their was only one sprint race or route race carded - or anything happened that would make it hard to have full confidence in the figure - I'd make note of it.

Most figures are pretty cut-and-dry. I use the Beyer scale - and 90% of the time I'm within 2 or 3 points of the number they come back with for every horse on the card.

Some days are tougher than others to make figures... and not every figure is strong...I will give the people who diss figures that.

[thelyingthief]

I think it's a little silly to knock Big Brown for his lack of sensational come home time.

He ran the fastest final quarter of any horse in the Kentucky Derby ...I think people who want to knock his come home time are really grasping at straws.

your argument reduces to: he won.

my argument, and others as well, reduces to: against whom. i find quinn's argument persuasive. you find it merely controversial. i don't think BB a great animal, just a lucky one.

tlt.

[DrugS]

Not at all.

I think Big Brown is beating up on a crop of horses that are almost all tomato cans.

However, I just think it's silly to use come home time as the knock on him.

If you want to knock the quality of the horses he's beating in comparison to past 3yo crops - I'm with you. You lose me when you start using come home time as your knock though.

[KingChas]

Beyer has been waiting for BB to fail for awhile now, It's apparent BB didnt live down to his figures, so the whole 3year old crop has to suffer....if the blind could see.

Did anyone here buy or read the racing form for Saturday?

Andrew Beyer picks Big Brown to win Belmont! :faint:

[Tom]

hmm. it doesn't matter what the distance is by which you measure, only that it be applied uniformly. if he is slow, compared to other quality runners, at ALL these ff distances then he is SLOW at all these distances. we talk about the final fractions at 7f and 6.5f against a standard for THOSE distances. besides, and correct me if i'm wrong, all the ff distances listed are at least an eighth, whereas the final fraction at 1 and 3/16 is less than that. frankly, i don't understand your complaint.


tlt

He should have used the common distance. To use a longer last fraction from a shorter race makes no sense,
Then agian, Quinn makes no sense a lot of the time lately either.
No biggis, just poor writing skills, I thought.

What if I said A is very fast - he ran 21.4
B is slower - he only ran 45.1.

[cj]

Not at all.

I think Big Brown is beating up on a crop of horses that are almost all tomato cans.

However, I just think it's silly to use come home time as the knock on him.

If you want to knock the quality of the horses he's beating in comparison to past 3yo crops - I'm with you. You lose me when you start using come home time as your knock though.

I agree. Trying to base an argument on by far the least important part of the race on dirt just seems silly. In reality, looking at any fraction without relating it to what happened in the others is an exercise in futility.

[asH]

Right now - I am making my own.

A lot of times in the past - I just would review days when I did my trip notes and I'd make note if it was an easy day or hard day to make figures.

If it was a straight forward day - I'd take the figures at face value.

If it was a day where funky things happened with the weather - or their was only one sprint race or route race carded - or anything happened that would make it hard to have full confidence in the figure - I'd make note of it.

Most figures are pretty cut-and-dry. I use the Beyer scale - and 90% of the time I'm within 2 or 3 points of the number they come back with for every horse on the card.

Some days are tougher than others to make figures... and not every figure is strong...I will give the people who diss figures that.

fair enough

[asH]

Did anyone here buy or read the racing form for Saturday?

Andrew Beyer picks Big Brown to win Belmont! :faint:
did you read his previous two columns in the Post?

he figured BB a 109 in the Derby, then a 100 in the Preakness, then the article 'Hard To figure' in the Post, then he's the ethics police against BB's connections in the next article. ...yeah, if the blind could see.

[asH]

I agree. Trying to base an argument on by far the least important part of the race on dirt just seems silly. In reality, looking at any fraction without relating it to what happened in the others is an exercise in futility.

another possibility; he did relate his his final fractions to the total and assumed some handicappers would have done so also with understanding, and know what he is talking about.

[JustRalph]

then he's the ethics police against BB's connections in the next article. ...yeah, if the blind could see.

we could use a few more ethics police in this sport

In fact, in about half of our culture

[KingChas]

did you read his previous two columns in the Post?

he figured BB a 109 in the Derby, then a 100 in the Preakness, then the article 'Hard To figure' in the Post, then he's the ethics police against BB's connections in the next article. ...yeah, if the blind could see.

Agree asH I read.

Andy must be running for VP he sure is flip-flopping or CHA(covering his ass).
:lol: :lol:

[DrugS]

Flip flopping about what?

Big Brown's Derby figure was a very tough one. You had a big stretch headwind - and the number should have been 103. He inflated it 6 points.

The reason being that the 8.5 furlong races saw 1.5 furlongs less headwind than the Derby.

Not all figures are cut and dry and stone cold can't miss.

As for the Preakness, I thought he was one point high. That was a very simple figure to make. Big Brown came out of the race with an excuse - he was boxed in early on, fractured two pace rivals who finished last and 2nd to last, and won with ears pricked late while having run down severe enough to have actually bled through both back bandages. All that stuff doesn't get factored into the final figure - just the time and the speed of the track do.

As for the "hard to figure" article - that was common sense. Of course this crop is very weak after you get past BB. Horses like Silver Charm and Holy Bull etc had run clearly faster figures but didn't look so superior because they weren't facing the tomato cans BB has been facing.

And as for his latest article - Dutrow and Ivarone both have very sketchy pasts.

The guy is telling it like it is.

[asH]

Agree asH I read.

Andy must be running for VP he sure is flip-flopping or CHA(covering his ass).
:lol: :lol:

me thinks CHR r= reputation. If BB is the horse most believe he is, that 100Beyers was a major blunder in the Preakness (what good are figures? ..excuse me, B-e-y-e-r-s figures)..thus the 'Hard to Figure' / total debasement of these 3year olds (not cool) article to cover .. most disciples brought it.

To suggest Curlin vs BB to better assess BB is poopoo,
meeting Curlin is a lose lose for BB, History tells us (always a good measure)good 4year olds beat good 3year olds most most often...Secretariat lost to Onion, Inversor?'i' /Bernadini....

[DrugS]

If BB is the horse most believe he is, that 100Beyers was a major blunder in the Preakness

How was it a "blunder" ?

That Preakness figure was a very simple one to make.

I can't imagine how anyone could come back with anything that wasn't in the 98-to-102 range.

The figure that Beyer might have wrong is the 109 Derby # that was inflated 6 points because of a stretch headwind.

[KingChas]

How was it a "blunder" ?

That Preakness figure was a very simple one to make.



The Pimlico surface for the day was a blunder.

Me gets 104 geared down...Damm he bounced :D

Any further questions about the Pimlico surface that day will require a blank check Mr. Drugs........ :D

[DrugS]

Me gets 104 geared down...Damm he bounced :D


So, you basically had the top three finishers in the Barbaro Stakes all getting big career tops. Good to know.

[KingChas]

Is the Barbaro stakes a 1 & 3\16?

Is the check in the mail?

:confused:

:lol:

[asH]

How was it a "blunder" ?

That Preakness figure was a very simple one to make.

I can't imagine how anyone could come back with anything that wasn't in the 98-to-102 range.

The figure that Beyer might have wrong is the 109 Derby # that was inflated 6 points because of a stretch headwind.

Drugs, I thought about it, I agree blunder is too strong a word to use when critiquing handicapping methods, Beyer wasnt the only one having trouble seeing a 2-5 shot, the probable potential of Big Brown making history, or the quality of this crop of 3's. The issue is always about the handicapping methods that will allow a capper’ to see 'it' before the next guy.
Drugs, you say the Derby figure is inflated because of a head wind- isnt that already factored into race time? have you considered the adjustments jocks make to compensate for conditions is also factored into time

[asH]

So, you basically had the top three finishers in the Barbaro Stakes all getting big career tops. Good to know.
Barbaro stakes:
top two were fav's ,no surprise, first fraction was second slowest of distance races at 24.63, speed was added towards the middle of the race, that always make the numbers look better.

Preakness
BB, from 4 - 6 furlongs BB was 4 lengths off the leader 23.67, in a brief burst he made up 3 lengths then coasted, obviously in reserve for the Belmont...that was no bounce, no reflection on you but bounce is used far to much to explain away misunderstanding