Horses not on grounds yet? Explain Please?

[WinterTriangle]

Maybe some of you who know stuff can explain this to me. I'm just using common sense, since i"m a newbie handicapper:

Icabod Crane is doing his workouts for the Belmont on synthetic over at Fair Hill. Sythetic workouts for a race on dirt?

Then, the late ship (Macho, too) horses were supposed to arrive at Belmont on Tues, but now it's Wed.

Yet, Motion says, and I quote: "I want him to get used to the Belmont track since it’s so unique,” Motion continued. “It’s the only mile and a half track in the country so I want him to get accustomed to it.”

Scratching my head here.

CD and BB have been at Belmont all week.

Do you figure this into your picks or is it not important?

[PaceAdvantage]

Trainers are a fickle bunch. Whatever worked last race will be all the rage today, or something to that effect.

I'm sure if either BB or CD wins the Belmont, and it's pointed out next year that no horse has won the Belmont who hasn't shipped in 2.5 weeks before the race, then everyone (or most everyone) will be shipping in 2.5 weeks before the race.

That's why Dutrow is kinda growing on me...he plays to the beat of a different drummer (Case in point: When was the last time a trainer blew out his horse the morning of the Kentucky Derby? I betcha a lot more trainers are going to be doing that next year....:lol: )

[46zilzal]

(Case in point: When was the last time a trainer blew out his horse the morning of the Kentucky Derby? I betcha a lot more trainers are going to be doing that next year....
That is one of the most common maneuvers trainers do. Been around longer than you are I have followed the sport. Smith did it for Seabiscuit all the time.

[PaceAdvantage]

That is one of the most common maneuvers trainers do. Been around longer than you are I have followed the sport. Smith did it for Seabiscuit all the time.OK, I asked the question...when was the last time a trainer blew out a Kentucky Derby runner the morning of the Kentucky Derby?

[WinterTriangle]

No animals likes a lot of change.

To me, running on synth for a few weeks, then switching to dirt, plus a new environment, plus an airplane ride?

That leaves exactly 48 hours to "learn" all this and get adapted, if they arrive on Wed.

[PaceAdvantage]

To answer the original posters question, it's obvious some trainers don't put much stock in the notion that it's best to get the horse comfortable with the racing surface. That's the way they operate. Maybe they don't want to deal with the hustle and bustle of Belmont Park and want to keep their horse in the tranquil setting of a Fair Hill training center.

I personally would like to see a horse who has never raced at Belmont at least have some time to get acclimated to the surface.

But then again, there used to be that old adage "D. Wayne off the plane..." so who knows?

[46zilzal]

Happens all the time as this horse before Dubai.
Hekili delights in final blow-out

By Leslie Wilson Jr,
Published: March 23, 2006, 00:00

Dubai: Kane Hekili, the 5-1 second favourite for Saturday's $6 million Dubai World Cup, delighted his connections with a smart blow-out under lights at the Nad Al Sheba Racecourse.

Hours before he was handed an ideal draw in stall seven the Japan-bred horse was clocked at 49.9 seconds for 800 metres after covering the final 400 metres in 24.9.

Top Japanese jockey Yutaka Take, who was in the saddle, said: "The horse seems to be in very good condition. The dirt course is different from the Japanese one but he ran very well.

[Stareagle]

Happens all the time as this horse before Dubai.


Well, it may happen all the time, but that story refers to a blowout seven hours before the post-position draw. It is dated March 23, 2006 - the race was on the 25th.

Besides, the question was about the last trainer to blow out his horse the morning of the Kentucky Derby. The Dubai World Cup is an entirely different race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, it may happen all the time, but that story refers to a blowout seven hours before the post-position draw. It is dated March 23, 2006 - the race was on the 25th.

Besides, the question was about the last trainer to blow out his horse the morning of the Kentucky Derby. The Dubai World Cup is an entirely different race.Don't worry, "46zilzal" translates into the English word TANGENT, so you're going to have to expect that he will often fail to stay on point.

[46zilzal]

Horses blow out before big races all the time. It is NOT unique. Wake up early some morning and visit the horse identifier at the gap as these horses go out for a stretch of the legs.

[PaceAdvantage]

46, is it possible for you to ever stay on point? The question was:

When was the last time a trainer of a Kentucky Derby runner blew out his horse the morning of the Kentucky Derby?

Simple question. If it happens "all the time" then you should have no trouble coming up with a name and date.

[Gallop58]

Don't know when a blow out on Derby day was last done.
Can a database guy check how common this really is? Frequency of a work on the same day as a stakes or triple crown race would be interesting.... I'm guessing less than 1% of stakes runners actually do this...I assume it isn't usually a significant angle or these boards would be all over these types of signals.

[46zilzal]

Blow outs are very short quick moves OFTEN under the radar to be posted in the Form. They can be as short as two furlongs and usually the clocker won't even record them on the tab for the day.

[PaceAdvantage]

Blow outs are very short quick moves OFTEN under the radar to be posted in the Form. They can be as short as two furlongs and usually the clocker won't even record them on the tab for the day.NOTHING stays under the radar on Derby Day, especially if one of the entrants goes to the track the morning of the race for a blowout.

Just say you don't have any examples and move on....

[Gallop58]

I had in my post Preakness notes that Dutrow basically planned a work and a blowout Belmont Day. I know he got side tracked and as far as I can tell he didn't blow him out on Belmont Day. I've wondered if, had he done it, whether it might have helped his performance in the afternoon.....Does anyone know if Dutrow was asked post Belmont why he didn't and whether he thought it might have helped?

Still searching for any mention of pre-Derby blowouts and haven't found anything from webcrawling....

[Gallop58]

"Dutrow said Big Brown would have “a basic maintenance breeze,” probably one week before the Belmont Stakes, and he would perhaps blow out the colt a quarter-mile the morning of the race, which he did the day of the Preakness."

KD=Blowout=W
PS=Blowout=W
BS=Blowout=DNF

Correlation does not equal causation, but still, it's got to be at least something to think about...(And no I don't think it's the only explanation, but perhaps it's one of a few contributors...)

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think he blew him out the morning of the Derby....I was confusing the Derby for the Preakness....unless I'm really screwed up, and he blew him out before BOTH the Derby and Preakness....

Sorry for the confusion....

[njcurveball]

Don't know when a blow out on Derby day was last done.
Can a database guy check how common this really is? Frequency of a work on the same day as a stakes or triple crown race would be interesting....


If the DRF does not report the work there is no way to check. Was there an actual work in the Belmont past performances for this?

[Gallop58]

Seems I'm all confused.....

He definitely did Preakness morning (it's in the PP's)
I thought he did it prederby, but I guess not from looking back...He went out 3F on the 1st 2 days before the KD....
My bad.
I found a comment that said Dutrow opted for not blowing him out preBelmont because he looked better than he did before the Preakness. Not sure that's the real reason, but I still wonder whether it might have helped...

[46zilzal]

If the DRF does not report the work there is no way to check. Was there an actual work in the Belmont past performances for this?
many clockers don't record 2 furlong moves/

[njcurveball]

That is one of the most common maneuvers trainers do. Been around longer than you are I have followed the sport. Smith did it for Seabiscuit all the time.


many clockers don't record 2 furlong moves/

So we have a move that is one of the most common maneuvers than has been around forever and there is no documentation of it happening to track whether it is really successful.

I guess it is like the girl at ACRC who was absolutely SURE whoever got the GREY outrider pony won the race since she saw it happen TWICE! :jump:

[Lose The Juice]

I would suggest that there has been more than a bit of a paradigm shift, and much of the blather about workouts before big races is entirely irrelevant, however much it may have been genuinely meaningful back in the day.

One hesitates to extrapolate from harness racing, but I can tell you that in the seventies and even eighties, trainers would as a matter of course take their horses through a final warmup mile about an hour before race time; a lot of players used to clock these, and money could sometimes be made from doing so.

Then the drugs came in, and training methods changed rather quickly. The warmup mile became an anachronism. Now if you go to an American harness track and watch the quote-unquote warmups, you'll simply see horses jogging around the track clockwise, with at best 4 or 5 on the entire card actually going through a clocked warmup mile. Meanwhile, horse-doping suspensions have increased exponentially, and the whole notion of "form cycles", which was really the basis of much handicapping back in the day, has largely disappeared.

Drugging changed EVERYTHING.