Surprise winners

[KMS]

My biggest score ever was twenty or so years ago at Louisiana Downs on a 50-1 shot named Halo's call or something like that. I was a complete novice at the time and knew almost nothing about racing. I don't remember my rationale, but it wasn't just a random pick. A few years later I happened to meet the owner in a venue completely unrelated to racing. We got to talking, and when I mentioned Halo's Call, he exclaimed "that was our horse!"

He told me that they had no idea he was going to run big that day. Out of the blue, he just left the rest of the field in the dust, after not having done much of anything in several prior races.

What I'm wondering is, how often does this happen? Is it a common occurrence for a horse to just wake up one morning and decide to win without "telling" anybody?

[Overlay]

It may have been a surprise to the horse's connections, but, since you say the horse wasn't just a random bet for you, you must have seen something in its record (even if you can't recall what it was) . Maybe the barn didn't consider the horse in comparison to its competition in that race, or perhaps it was too close to the situation, and just overlooked or wasn't attuned to what you picked up on.

Also, "surprise" can be a relative term, depending on odds. A horse may not be the "best" horse in a field, but may still offer value compared to its actual chances of winning. If you consider the chances of each horse in a race field, and don't confine yourself to just finding and betting the one most likely winner, you have a greater possibility of spotting such horses.