Is the Belmont Stakes a match race?

[nobeyerspls]

The theme that I'm picking up is that the Belmont will be a match race between Big Brown and Casino Drive. There are some other nice horses in there that can get the distance. I'm expecting Denis of Cork to run well.
How many prior Belmont's were supposed to be two horse races but didn't turn out that way? I remember the Northern Dancer/Hill Rise race that Quarangle won. Then too, many have it as a one horse race with Big Brown competing against his quarter crack.

[ghostyapper]

I think tale of ekati will be a factor as well. He's got that grinding, wear you down running style that suits the race. Plus he's got a victory over the track.

[Moyers Pond]

Big Brown and Casino Drive could easily kill each other on the front. Sets it up for someone coming from behind.

[Marshall Bennett]

Whoever's behind Big Brown when they break will likely stay there . :p

[46zilzal]

A match race? Today with the whimpy breeding of dirt stamina at 12 furlongs??? The race is as it has been for the last 20-30 years: a test of survival, not speed.

Speed doesn't last at 12 furlongs...unless your name is Secretariat.

[Tom]

Pretty good drive last year with the filly and Curlin.

[witchdoctor]

MAtch race?

Isn't that how Jim Dandy won the Travers at 100:1 odds. Gallant Fox and somebody else thought they were the only ones who had a chance to win and let Jim Dandy steal the race.

[46zilzal]

MAtch race?

Isn't that how Jim Dandy won the Travers at 100:1 odds. Gallant Fox and somebody else thought they were the only ones who had a chance to win and let Jim Dandy steal the race.
Interesting on greater research: that track was hideously deep with rain that day and few remembered that Jim Dandy's ONLY stakes win had come on a surface JUST LIKE IT.

But your assessment is correct.

[Marshall Bennett]

A match race? Today with the whimpy breeding of dirt stamina at 12 furlongs??? The race is as it has been for the last 20-30 years: a test of survival, not speed.

Speed doesn't last at 12 furlongs...unless your name is Secretariat.
I don't envision a match race . You're theory may be correct , though even at 99.99% of the time , there exist a window for a freak to defy your notion . Big Brown may not be that freak but from what we've seen , I wouldn't bet against it . I'd send him to the lead on Saturday and never look back ... lets see !!

[PaceAdvantage]

Big Brown and Casino Drive could easily kill each other on the front. Sets it up for someone coming from behind.Interested to hear why you think Kent D would allow Big Brown to duel on the lead in the Belmont when no such trip is necessary for Big Brown? He has shown an ability to rate very kindly....why in the world would he duel for the lead?

[Moyers Pond]

Interested to hear why you think Kent D would allow Big Brown to duel on the lead in the Belmont when no such trip is necessary for Big Brown? He has shown an ability to rate very kindly....why in the world would he duel for the lead?

Because if Casino Drive goes to the lead and gets a slow pace it is all over. They will never catch him. Just like in Japan.

[46zilzal]

I have heard many a Hall of Fame trainer talk about colts like Big Brown akin to the phrasing the same thing: "What happens when he gets hooked late?" That is what champions are all about. This one has yet to do that and it appears never will take on his elders.

[ManeMediaMogul]

Because if Casino Drive goes to the lead and gets a slow pace it is all over. They will never catch him. Just like in Japan.

By what stretch of the imagination do you think Casino Drive could outrun Big Brown...all things being equal?

Casino Drive might win because anything can happen in a horserace. But if there were perfect trips for both horses, on ideal surfaces and no physical ailments for either competitor, Big Brown would beat Casino Drive 99 times out of 100. He is much faster than Casino Drive at every pole.

[LemonSoupKid]

How can you be so sure of that? You don't know enough about Casino Drive, yet. It's very presumptious, and dangerous, to be certain.

You may be right, but if you look again that you are talking about 3 year olds, I think your contention (esp. in light of a 1 1/2 mile race) is a bit much.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

The only match we are going to see is the match Edgar Prado lights when he fires Casino's million dollar rocket!

Dr. SwineSmeller

[cucui]

I came in here to get a better picture of the BIG PICTURE..
But even with that story....the picture i'm seeing for pages in sports history for 2008 is Big Brown and Josh Hamilton of the Rangers are both Drug Addicts or have ties with drug addicts that will prevail and win TRIPLE CROWNS!!!! in 2008.
Punto! Final!;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Because if Casino Drive goes to the lead and gets a slow pace it is all over. They will never catch him. Just like in Japan.The way they have been training Casino Drive, there is no way he's going to be on the lead. They've been putting him to sleep early in his works, then flying him home late. That's a good way to LOSE the Belmont, especially in this field, with it's lack of pacesetters.

[overthehill]

in a distance race anything can happen. I remember when exceller must have been 20 lengths back and he caught Seattle Slew. Caveat outfinished Slew of Gold in what looked like a two horse race in the belmont. However BB is just an awesome horse. I will consider it one of the all time biggest upsets if he doesnt win.

[Semipro]

The only match we are going to see is the match Edgar Prado lights when he fires Casino's million dollar rocket!

Dr. SwineSmellerOkay Casino Drive might win but it will have nothing to with the purchase price. My figures have him a closer than I thought. Butt he still loses by 2 &1/2 with the next horse Denis of Cork 8 lenghts back. What I find even more amazing is that someone one this board didn't know the mare was Better Than Honor it been a subject of conversion here several times.

[Tom]

CD might be the big horse later on, but remember, Curlin lost the Derby to more seasoned horses before he found his best. SS was ready to roll, Curlin was learning the game. By the end of the year, SS was a memory and curlin the horse of the future.

Give CD some time...enjoy BB while you can. I doubt if he gets the crown I will see another in my lifetime, unless I live to be 100.

[Murph]

One bell. Two Runners. Winner takes all.

BB may be worth 1/9 if this were the case.

[Marlin]

INMHO there are only two who have a chance to beat BB. Casino Drive and D of C. Other than Anak Nakal (no shot) they appear to be the only two bred for success at a mile and a half. I will toss Big Brown and use these two in a Pick 4. BB will probably win again but one must take a shot.

[46zilzal]

Brown may just run away from all of these but his median% is too high. He could get caught. Question is, by whom? Da'Tara ran a good one but there was a high variant, Icabod is improving, and Ready's Echo is the plodder of this group who hangs around after the 02 is out on the others lungs.

[MNslappy]

which of the rest of the group (besides BB and CD) will be able to perform best against the pace scenario? after looking at the PPs a little bit here, I think it's going to be something along the lines of v. slow early / slow - avg mid / avg late.

[nobeyerspls]

INMHO there are only two who have a chance to beat BB. Casino Drive and D of C. Other than Anak Nakal (no shot) they appear to be the only two bred for success at a mile and a half. I will toss Big Brown and use these two in a Pick 4. BB will probably win again but one must take a shot.

Earlier I said that Denis of Cork would run well but I've switched to Tale of Ekati. Repeating another post, he has all the components of a Belmont winner - skipped the Preakness, is working well, has a win over the track, and is bred for the distance. So the box is BB, D of C, and T of E.
It's either a nice ticket to cash if Casino Drive is off the board or a very useful $6 bookmark.