Belmont Stakes - No speed except for Big Brown

[xfile]

Big Brown is the lone speed. If his feet are healthy he will win on the lead. If you look at the runstyles of all the probables not one other horse has an EP or E style except for BB.

[xfile]

I just realized Da Tara will go. BB can sit right behind with no problem. His feet are the only problem

[46zilzal]

Big Brown is the lone speed. If his feet are healthy he will win on the lead. If you look at the runstyles of all the probables not one other horse has an EP or E style except for BB.
NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY.....

[Marshall Bennett]

I see no reason not to let BB go to the lead right out of the gate and do his thing . If he's as good as he's suppose to be what difference does it make ? Why let any traffic be an issue . Catch me if you can . I don't think Casino Drive or any other horse could catch him , not if they ran the race a dozen times . Only a health issue will beat Big Brown .

[Tom]

Commendable was never over a half length back.

[ryesteve]

NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY.....Bold Forbes?

[plainolebill]

Bold Forbes? Bingo :D

[xfile]

NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY.....

Commendable was definitely an EP

[xfile]

NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY.....

Tabasco Cat was also an EP. Big Brown is an EP.

[ghostyapper]

NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY.....

Seattle Slew

[xfile]

Seattle Slew

That's right. Slew had the E run style. And another one is RIVA RIDGE who was an EP and won the Belmont in gate-to-wire fashion.

[xfile]

Bold Forbes?

Yup - He had an E run style and won the Belmont gate-to wire as the 4/5 fav.

[xfile]

Another one is HANSEL who had he EP run style and he also won the Belmont gate-to-wire

[xfile]

And then there is SWALE who was an EP and he, too, won the Belmont wire to wire as the 7-5 favorite.

[xfile]

and then there was CONQUISTADOR CIELO who had the EP run style and he, TOO, won the Belmont wire to wire.....should I go on? :cool:

[Stevie Belmont]

Pat Day stole the Belmont with Commendable...Daudling fractions and classic Pat took them to school on the front end.

He sat right off Hugh Heffner and took the race over. Solis sat way off with the best horse in the race, Aptitude and could not get to him. Frankel wanted to strangle Solis after the race.

[46zilzal]

Most win with a percent median in the high 66's: LATE runners.

[Moyers Pond]

Last time I checked Casino Drive has plenty of early speed if needed. Did you see his race in Japan? He also broke slowly in the Peter Pan. If he needs early speed he has it.

[Bobzilla]

I'm wondering if John Velazquez will be asked to take the front with Ready's Image and try to set up shop. Though at first glance devoid of a classic stamina pedigree, I've actually seen horses with brilliance leaning pedigrees win long races by outsprinting classically bred ones off of moderate to slow early fractions. Not predicting that's what will happen but it's a dynamic I will have to at least consider among others.

Does anyone know what RI's BSF was for his 5/14 6.5f win was? I could guess low to mid 90s but that would only be conjecture. I would think he has a right to improve off first race back. On the downside, among others, he's never been in a 2 turn event.

[xfile]

Most win with a percent median in the high 66's: LATE runners.

Your original quote was "NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY...."

What you probably meant was that was not a favorable run style. :cool:

[HolyBull29]

Uhh how about Secretariat.

[ghostyapper]

I'm wondering if John Velazquez will be asked to take the front with Ready's Image and try to set up shop. Though at first glance devoid of a classic stamina pedigree, I've actually seen horses with brilliance leaning pedigrees win long races by outsprinting classically bred ones off of moderate to slow early fractions. Not predicting that's what will happen but it's a dynamic I will have to at least consider among others.

Does anyone know what RI's BSF was for his 5/14 6.5f win was? I could guess low to mid 90s but that would only be conjecture. I would think he has a right to improve off first race back. On the downside, among others, he's never been in a 2 turn event.

Ready's image is not running in the belmont, its ready's echo who has absolutely no early speed.

[SMOO]

Yes, other than all those horses listed, no one has ever won the Belmont with early speed.


:ThmbUp:

[Stevie Belmont]

The pace scenario is fascinating.

Edgar likes to wait and make a bid. You would figure Casino Drive will be a few lengths back.

I wonder if Kent might just send him to the front, the bad thing is he could get pressed if he does not relax. No reason to think he won't. He has been a picture of calmness thoroughout the entire spring. I'm sure Kent will just go with the flow and let him run his race. If he winds up there, so be it. If Big Brown can go an easy 23.5 and 48 no matter how good Casino might be, it's over. Anyway, however the race sets up BB will be fine.

[RichieP]

The pace scenario is fascinating.

If Big Brown can go an easy 23.5 and 48 no matter how good Casino might be, it's over.

I would definitely consider BB vulnerable if Saturday he goes on the lead at a 23.2 (fifths) first fraction.

[46zilzal]

Your original quote was "NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY...."

What you probably meant was that was not a favorable run style.
Nope I said what I said. "Earlies" go out in over 69% median pace that none of them could survive on.

Because a horse is in front does not mean it is early. War Emblem ran his last Derby prep LATE, around 66.8% median on the lead.

Bob N John showed the Belmont was out of reach, as did Hard Spun...by their medians going UP as the distances increased. BOTH were out of the money at 12 furlongs.

[xfile]

Nope I said what I said. "Earlies" go out in over 69% median pace that none of them could survive on.

Because a horse is in front does not mean it is early. War Emblem ran his last Derby prep LATE, around 66.8% median on the lead.

Bob N John showed the Belmont was out of reach, as did Hard Spun...by their medians going UP as the distances increased. BOTH were out of the money at 12 furlongs.

You talking about Energy here I assume.

[Bobzilla]

Ghostyapper,

I stand corrected. My Bad. Had my "Readys" mixed up.

Bob

[Tom]

Thread is refering to positional running styles.
Frankly, hardly anyone cares what the hell energy anyone runs.

You can call him sustained or late or whatever - if he is leading early, he is running early.

[46zilzal]

Thread is refering to positional running styles.
Frankly, hardly anyone cares what the hell energy anyone runs.

You can call him sustained or late or whatever - if he is leading early, he is running early.

The ones who continually figure them out DO.

It's not how fast they run, it is how they run fast.

[Semipro]

Thread is refering to positional running styles.
Frankly, hardly anyone cares what the hell energy anyone runs.

You can call him sustained or late or whatever - if he is leading early, he is running early.Totally agree

[46zilzal]

In the parimutuel game, it is an advantage being the over iconoclast.

[Moyers Pond]

The pace scenario is fascinating.

Edgar likes to wait and make a bid. You would figure Casino Drive will be a few lengths back.

I wonder if Kent might just send him to the front, the bad thing is he could get pressed if he does not relax. No reason to think he won't. He has been a picture of calmness thoroughout the entire spring. I'm sure Kent will just go with the flow and let him run his race. If he winds up there, so be it. If Big Brown can go an easy 23.5 and 48 no matter how good Casino might be, it's over. Anyway, however the race sets up BB will be fine.

Because Edgar rides all races the same. :lol: Last time I checked he was pretty much the best there is in figuring out where to put his horse. If he needs to be on the lead, he will be on the lead.

I will use Dutrows words

Silver Train's trainer, Richard Dutrow Jr., said. "He can do anything, and Edgar has such a knack for knowing what to do and when to do it."

[Pell Mell]

The ones who continually figure them out DO.

It's not how fast they run, it is how they run fast.

That's the point; BB is running fast when he's not running fast.

[46zilzal]

That's the point; BB is running fast when he's not running fast.
Let's see if this one can apportion it over a distance which he and most of the others, WILL NEVER SEE AGAIN.

He doesn't have the dominance of a Big Red and I will wager that he does not break 2:26 (Easy Goer's 2nd best time in that race)

[xfile]

I think we are all forgetting this horse has a cracked hoof. It's a roll of the dice even as much as I would like to see him win. He's the best horse with a pace edge and a cracked hoof. If only he was 100% sound. If that crack doesn't open up and holds with the patch I don't think he can be beat. If is if is if is...if, if, if... :cool:

[46zilzal]

Oh yes, it would be really GREAT for racing to have another catastrophic breakdown on coast to coast TV..........

Let him finish the race, no matter where the "steroided" artificially muscled up home run hitter finishes.

[Marshall Bennett]

Doubt a quarter crack would cause a breakdown . No more so than a blister on a pitchers index finger causing his arm to fall off .

[russowen77]

Doubt a quarter crack would cause a breakdown . No more so than a blister on a pitchers index finger causing his arm to fall off .
I agree. It could keep him from running his best though if it got worse.

[46zilzal]

Doubt a quarter crack would cause a breakdown . No more so than a blister on a pitchers index finger causing his arm to fall off .
Never worked around patients called "Steroid cripples" have you?

[Skanoochies]

Doubt a quarter crack would cause a breakdown . No more so than a blister on a pitchers index finger causing his arm to fall off .
The pitcher doesn`t have 1100 pounds or so pounding down on his finger for a mile and a half. He also can tell his manager to take him out halfway through the contest, an option BB doesn`t have. :lol:

[Marshall Bennett]

The pitcher doesn`t have 1100 pounds or so pounding down on his finger for a mile and a half. He also can tell his manager to take him out halfway through the contest, an option BB doesn`t have. :lol:
Its no big deal . He's ready to roll . If he wasn't he wouldn't run .

[tribecaagent]

Danzig Connection wired the field in 1986.

[WinterTriangle]

Never worked around patients called "Steroid cripples" have you?

Doesn't steroids make the bones brittle eventually?

I've had my knees shot-up 3x but the ortho would not do it more than 3x because of that..........

[PaceAdvantage]

Never worked around patients called "Steroid cripples" have you?They're ALL racing on steroids, and always have been, you nincompoop.

[PaceAdvantage]

You talking about Energy here I assume.That 46zilzal, he's a sly one. I can't tell you how many times 46 has posted asking for clarification of even the SIMPLEST acronym (like CD for Casino Drive for instance, in a post obviously about Casino Drive), yet he expects everyone here to KNOW that he is speaking about Sartin energy-style figures when he states that no horse has won the Belmont as an EARLY....

Never mind that 9 out of 10 people would assume he's talking about positional running styles when he mentions EARLY....

I swear, some days I just want to give this place a giant shake and see what's left on the tree.

[46zilzal]

Could just as easily be a myriad of differing things. Abbreviations are only used ONCE the idea has been explained or otherwise readers have to just guess. Every manual of good writing explains it that way.

[46zilzal]

They're ALL racing on steroids, and always have been, you nincompoop.
That is not true. Come to the barns some morning but you will need someone to sign you in since you are not licensed by any racing association.

You will have to get up very early too and wear some steel toed boots.

Always have been huh? Interesting since the parent molecules were not discovered until the late 30's and then not refined into mineralocorticoids, glucocorticoids and the sex steroids until the middle 50's when they added fluorides to them. http://www.anabolicsmall.com/roida3a.htm

[PaceAdvantage]

Something tells me you would be the first to fall to the ground....

[46zilzal]

Something tells me you would be the first to fall to the ground....
Pointing out what happens on the backstretch is much different than that same view from the grandstands. Pure and simple.

Many have these "at arm's length" misconceptions that are re-arranged when they are where the training happens, that's all.

Get a backstretch pass, go there again and again: you will change your mind on what was generated from that distant theoretical.

[PaceAdvantage]

Dude, I've been to the backstretch many times. I've chatted with trainers and assistant trainers, visited famous and not-so-famous horses, and even had a friend bitten by Invasor while I was feeding him carrots in his stall at Belmont (he was a mean SOB at times). Anything else you wish to recommend that I do?

Oh, and I didn't need anyone to sign me in....

[46zilzal]

Going there with a visitor's pass keeps you as a visitor not a participant. I have visited the sets of many movies, First Blood for one, but that didn't make me a movie maker nor provide me with enough experience to know what was really going on.

[PaceAdvantage]

Like I said, I didn't need anyone to sign me in....when you know the right people, you ain't gotta sign nuttin'

[PaceAdvantage]

Always have been huh? Interesting since the parent molecules were not discovered until the late 30's and then not refined into mineralocorticoids, glucocorticoids and the sex steroids until the middle 50's when they added fluorides to them. http://www.anabolicsmall.com/roida3a.htmI forgot, you take things 100% literally. No fooling around with the A.I. project.

[46zilzal]

It takes years of study, biomechanics, conformational evaluations, knowing the anatomy and physiology along with typical musculoskeletal reactions to stress and shearing pressures, corrective shoeing, symmetry of action, lead changing, .....to even begin to understand the thoroughbred and then within the context of historical perspectives of the Domino's, the Grey Lags, The Morviches, and Synsoby's of their history.

It takes years and years to begin to comprehend the totality of it all and it has to be hands on or it is a best guess from arm's length.

[PaceAdvantage]

But, it doesn't take years to realize most if not all of the top outfits use steroids, and that most if not all of your top champions have been racing on steroids for the past 30+ years, which was my simple point all along.

Ask Michael Dickinson. He's a guy who you must admit can comprehend the "totality of it all," and he says 95% of trainers are using anabolic steroids on their horses.

[46zilzal]

I forgot, you take things 100% literally. No fooling around with the A.I. project.

"always been around" is a fairly clear term.

[46zilzal]

Ask Michael Dickinson. He's a guy who you must admit can comprehend the "totality of it all," and he says 95% of trainers are using anabolic steroids on their horses.
Today, unfortunately true. I first heard of their blatant use when the Claiborne people told me of the "studdish" nature of Winning Colors and how she would not "catch" when being bred and all knew what the trainer had used to build her up.

A top stakes harness horse was sold here last week for big bucks and when the new owners discover all the injection sites along the fetlocks and under her chin they are not going to be happy.

[46zilzal]

This race is often, very often, won by survivors that are more closely aligned with being plodders: they just survived the distance better while many in front of them packed it in.

The classic one of recent vintage was Editor's Note, but Sarava, Jazil, Lemon Drop Kid, Go and Go, Temperence Hill and Stage Door Johnny are of the same mold.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

. Only a health issue will beat Big Brown .

Offering up an excuse for defeat, before the race is even ran? So if Big Brown loses it was due to a health issue? Right... It'll be a health issue alright, but the issue will be a healthier superbred Casino Drive...

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Doesn't steroids make the bones brittle eventually?

I've had my knees shot-up 3x but the ortho would not do it more than 3x because of that..........

A horse has near 99.9 % of the same DNA as humans, as with most all creatures. The metabolic sequences of most all animal's bodies are near identical. The effects of steroids on a horse or other animal is also just that near identical to the effects of steroids on humans. The steroids used on animals are a mirror of compostion as to those used on humans, just marketed under a different name, by the same drug companies.

That being known, the American Medical Association (AMA) accepts the following information as standard in regards to steroid hormone therapy:

Treatment is normally prescribed to relieve inflammatory diseases (such as asthma or chronic obstructive lung disease; athritis or colitis; or dematitis or eczema) or as part as part of a combined modality treatment for some malignancies. These indications are the basically the same for any animal.

I may be mistaken, but I think Big Brown's vet/team uses the dematitis/eczema part of the clause/excuse as the reason for the phamacological intervention.

Personally, (if dermatitis is indeed the vet's diagnosis), I would have the horse sense to stand to my educational level and admit that an itchy spot on Big Brown's hindquater is much less harmful to his well-being than the critical side effects of long term steroid therapy...

"Common side effects" of prolonged steroid hormone therapy include alterations in the sleep-wake cycle, fluid and sodium retention, muscle weakness, thinning of the skin, cataract formation, insulin imbalances (diabetes), osteoporosis (brittle and shrinking bones), and immune system supression.

Decide for yourself if long-term steroid hormone therapy is a good thing for any animal?

Dr. SwineSmeller

[PaceAdvantage]

Decide for yourself if long-term steroid hormone therapy is a good thing for any animal?What does it matter? It's a level playing field. They're all running on steroids (and those that say they're not are probably lying). After all, they're not going to be tested for it...so why admit it?

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

You're right Pace. It is a level playing field. When I say decide for yourself, I refer to the long term health of the animal. I work in the medical field and often witness the adverse long term effects of prolonged drug therapies. It's not a good thing. And steroids are worse than most because of the bodies direct hormonal / metabolic reactions to steroid therapy.

It would be idiotic to shoot up a million dollar superbred with steroids. That's why Casino is not being injected.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[PaceAdvantage]

If Big Brown wins, will you be back posting on Sunday?

[WinterTriangle]

If Big Brown wins, will you be back posting on Sunday?

Pace, I will. I'm rooting for BB.

But loving the horse racing sport doesn't mean I have to swallow the somehwat unethical, or, at the very least, unnecessary, aspects of it, and which should always be improving.

I'm very much into turning on other people, particularly women, to this great sport! To do that, I have to have a high opinion of it myself. The only way I can do that is to address stuff like this when it comes up. (And, it always does.)

So, I'll be back here, if ya'll will have me. :)

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

If Big Brown wins, will you be back posting on Sunday?

Yeah Pace, I'll be back. Count on it. I've only been a PaceAdvantage patron for a few days, and I can honestly say that I wish I'd discovered this board long ago. And I won't even brag and say I told you so when Casino rips the Belmont field a brand new you know what...I'll just post a nice essay in Casino's honor.

The fact is Pace, I'm a diehard thoroughbred fan. A fan of the innate athleticism and beauty of the animal. I love to watch them race. My exhilarant passion for the Sport of Kings stretches long beyond the betting window.

I've suffered the agony of defeat more than once. I'll suck it up and take my lumps if Casino's million dollar rocket fails to fire. But admit it or not, we all know that "failure to fire" is a longshot proposition with Casino Drive.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[xfile]

I've only been a PaceAdvantage patron for a few days
Dr. SwineSmeller

and already you got under PA's skin? :D

[LemonSoupKid]

Swine,

You're making a common mistake that lay people make when talking about "steroids". Those which you refer to are actually corticosteroids (and your AMA reference) which are produced in the adrenal gland (above the kidney) and are stress hormones. These have many side effects and physiologic actions, but they are not anabolic steroids.

Big Brown is on shots of anabolic steroids, however, I've heard. Anabolics are the gonadotropins, which have a separate axis and are controlled through the brain but come from the sexual organs.

I'm very interested in anabolic steroids and their effects. I'm also a physician. Horses are about 94-95% similar to humans in DNA, btw, at best. But whos' counting. Your points are still not far off.

I'm not sure what the main argument is here, but, even in humans, anabolic steroid use is historically, drastically overstated and there is little evidence that it is bad for you in any responsible amount. The effects are totally reversible. I know it sounds strange, but it's true. Anything else is politics/public policy.

[PaceAdvantage]

and already you got under PA's skin? :DNo. If that's how you read into it, it wasn't my intention to project being annoyed. I was asking an honest question.

Usually, when someone new jumps into the fray with a strong opinion, if that that opinion fails to pan out, you usually don't hear from said "newbie" again....

Glad to hear the good Dr. plans to stick around.

[46zilzal]

You're making a common mistake that lay people make when talking about "steroids". Those which you refer to are actually corticosteroids (and your AMA reference) which are produced in the adrenal gland (above the kidney) and are stress hormones. These have many side effects and physiologic actions, but they are not anabolic steroids.

Big Brown is on shots of anabolic steroids, however, I've heard. Anabolics are the gonadotropins, which have a separate axis and are controlled through the brain but come from the sexual organs.


All natural steroids have overlapping effects and BOTH are controlled by the adenohypophysis as ACTH and Interstitial cell hormone, and control, through feedback inhibition, the production of the end hormone.

It was only through pharmacological manipulation that the ratios of effect mineralocorticoid, glucocorticoid and anabolic effects were altered by adding fluorides and side chains to the natural chemicals.

Have patients on any of the steroids for long and there is significant axis depression of pituitary hormone production.

[slewis]

and already you got under PA's skin? :D

Damn,

A new epidermus record!!

(Took me a whole week)

[slewis]

Yeah Pace, I'll be back. Count on it. I've only been a PaceAdvantage patron for a few days, and I can honestly say that I wish I'd discovered this board long ago. And I won't even brag and say I told you so when Casino rips the Belmont field a brand new you know what...I'll just post a nice essay in Casino's honor.

The fact is Pace, I'm a diehard thoroughbred fan. A fan of the innate athleticism and beauty of the animal. I love to watch them race. My exhilarant passion for the Sport of Kings stretches long beyond the betting window.

I've suffered the agony of defeat more than once. I'll suck it up and take my lumps if Casino's million dollar rocket fails to fire. But admit it or not, we all know that "failure to fire" is a longshot proposition with Casino Drive.

Dr. SwineSmeller

I often stir up trouble when I think someone's being way over zealous about a horse that I know aint got a prayer (like when several were big on War Pass)Now, I'm not saying that's necessarily the case here with Casino Drive, I'm not oinkin' nearly as loud, but..... Dr. SS... If you saw your horse on the track in the AM now compared to how he trained up to the Peter Pan, you might go a bit easier on this forum... and at the windows on Saturday.
Anyway....Good Luck... There's nothing wrong with having a favorite horse!

[WinterTriangle]

Well, I'm betting the horses against each other.
I'm not betting against posters on this forum.

I love to hear about people's favorites. I love getting feedback on mine.
Being whipped repeatedly after I've already *got it* is what I don't enjoy. :)

So, Mr. SwineSmeller, tell us about OTHER horses you like for the TC. I think it's clear who your choice for win is. :)

[njcurveball]

Thread title is NO SPEED except for Big Brown.

Looking at the race purely from running styles, Big Brown is an F. Casino Drive and Da Tara are E's. Tale of Ekati, Macho Again, and Denis of Cork are P's. Ichabad, Ready, and the maiden are all S. Quirin Speed Points confirm this as well.

I dont think Prado or Garcia will challenge early, so the thread title may be spot on for this race. Going to make it tougher to upset the horse looking at the likely pace scenario.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

and already you got under PA's skin? :D

I hope not, I've been barred from a couple of boards before and I didn't even break any rules. Just had an opinion.

As far as 46Zilzal goes, he is obviously an old pro as evidenced by his number of posts. I have not even posted 13,000 posts in all my board days put together. I respect a guy who has put that much time into PaceAdvantage and I look forward to reading his commentary for times to come. He's good.

As for Pace, I have no reason to intentionally get under his skin. Why would I desire to be banned from the best thoroughbred message board on the net? And on top of all that, the information that Pace provides his members will be of monetary value to me in many future wagers, I'm sure of it.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[PaceAdvantage]

I hope not, I've been barred from a couple of boards before and I didn't even break any rules. Just had an opinion.Uh oh...I think we all know how this story is going to end....

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

I hope ya'll at least wait to after Casino wins the Belmont so I can go out with an honorable discharge...

[46zilzal]

It would take a HUGE form reversal for that to happen.

[46zilzal]

THe long term effect of the roids.

[Living Flame]

Oh, yuck! LOL!!!!

[Living Flame]

Uh oh...I think we all know how this story is going to end....

LMFAO!!! You guys are funny!;)

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Well, I'm betting the horses against each other.
I'm not betting against posters on this forum.

I love to hear about people's favorites. I love getting feedback on mine.
Being whipped repeatedly after I've already *got it* is what I don't enjoy. :)

So, Mr. SwineSmeller, tell us about OTHER horses you like for the TC. I think it's clear who your choice for win is. :)

After Casino, I like Big Brown. Boxing these two phenominal colts is my only bet except for a very modest tri box with Icabod. Icabod has good speed and the distance suits him to a tee. He is my upset pick.

I only bet about 15 races a year. Usually on a single horse. A wise old man once told me, "Son, you can beat a horse race, but you'll never beat the horse races. My wagers are almost always placed on high caliber stakes races that it is easy to get film of the participants in previous races.

I've hit 9 out of my last twelve bets dating back to last years Belmont, which I lost. I had Curlin', who is an Oaklawn Park favorite son, my home track.

And I only play horses that I can first watch run. In my opinion, watching race replays is the best handicapping tool in the business. I have not bought a racing form in years.

Wanna know who personally taught me that handicapping strategy about 25 years ago? Randy Moss. Randy got his start writing and handicapping for the Arkansas Democrat, and he was most always found mingling amongst the crowd at Oaklawn Park.

Randy was an approachable legitimately nice guy that we in Hot Springs were very proud for when he got the call to go to national TV. Randy believed when you rewind a race and watch closely, it becomes apparent often times as to what horse has the necessary moves to win a given race.

He wasn't kidding. All the paper in the world isn't worth what you can see with your own eyes.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[joanied]

Geeze...just lost my lunch...YUK, YUK, BARFO!!!

[Tom]

THe long term effect of the roids.

Must be starting the kid out early!

[garyscpa]

Randy believed when you rewind a race and watch closely, it becomes apparent often times as to what horse has the necessary moves to win a given race.

He wasn't kidding. All the paper in the world isn't worth what you can see with your own eyes.

Dr. SwineSmeller

So did it look to you that CD got a perfect trip in the Peter Pan?

[plainolebill]

THe long term effect of the roids.

Is that what's wrong with his eyes?

[ezrabrooks]

After Casino, I like Big Brown. Boxing these two phenominal colts is my only bet except for a very modest tri box with Icabod. Icabod has good speed and the distance suits him to a tee. He is my upset pick.

I only bet about 15 races a year. Usually on a single horse. A wise old man once told me, "Son, you can beat a horse race, but you'll never beat the horse races. My wagers are almost always placed on high caliber stakes races that it is easy to get film of the participants in previous races.

I've hit 9 out of my last twelve bets dating back to last years Belmont, which I lost. I had Curlin', who is an Oaklawn Park favorite son, my home track.

And I only play horses that I can first watch run. In my opinion, watching race replays is the best handicapping tool in the business. I have not bought a racing form in years.

Wanna know who personally taught me that handicapping strategy about 25 years ago? Randy Moss. Randy got his start writing and handicapping for the Arkansas Democrat, and he was most always found mingling amongst the crowd at Oaklawn Park.

Randy was an approachable legitimately nice guy that we in Hot Springs were very proud for when he got the call to go to national TV. Randy believed when you rewind a race and watch closely, it becomes apparent often times as to what horse has the necessary moves to win a given race.

He wasn't kidding. All the paper in the world isn't worth what you can see with your own eyes.

Dr. SwineSmeller

"Son, you can beat a horse race, but you'll never beat the horse races"

Doc, I like your opinions, but I would say that this sage advice is backwards...as I think you can (at least have a chace) beat the races..but not a race..

Ez

[Irish Boy]

A horse has near 99.9 % of the same DNA as humans, as with most all creatures.

That's not even close to being true. If your going to wax rhapsodic about the medical and hormonal effects of steroids, or for that matter try to sound sophisticated about anything, it'd help if you didn't make such elementary mistakes. Humans don't share 99.9% of DNA with each other, and they share about 98% with the closest primates. The amout for equines is far less.

[ezrabrooks]

That's not even close to being true. If your going to wax rhapsodic about the medical and hormonal effects of steroids, or for that matter try to sound sophisticated about anything, it'd help if you didn't make such elementary mistakes. Humans don't share 99.9% of DNA with each other, and they share about 98% with the closest primates. The amout for equines is far less.

Now..we got a horse race..

[WinterTriangle]

Dr., interesting you would also pick Icabod. Only other horse in the race besides CD not running on roids. And technically, BB won't be, since his winstrol shot was a while ago.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

So did it look to you that CD got a perfect trip in the Peter Pan?

Howdy Gary, I thought Casino had a relatively clean trip in the Peter Pan for sure. Just a belated break. Clear down the backstretch and in the turn. The only contact Casino faced was contact the he initiated when he split tight horses at the top of the stretch. I like a horse who don't balk at a tight gap. Many horses do balk in that situation.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

[QUOTE=slewis]If you saw your horse on the track in the AM now compared to how he trained up to the Peter Pan, you might go a bit easier on this forum... and at the windows on Saturday.

Unfortunately, I got called in to work tomorrow and there wil be no betting the Belmont for me. I'm scared to bet anyway now. Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Geeze...just lost my lunch...YUK, YUK, BARFO!!!

Hold up Joan, let me grab a puke pan so you don't make a mess everywhere. It's no problem, I pass em out all the time at work. Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

[QUOTE=ezrabrooks]"Son, you can beat a horse race, but you'll never beat the horse races"
Doc, I like your opinions, but I would say that this sage advice is backwards...as I think you can (at least have a chace) beat the races..but not a race..


Now you tell me Ezra. No wonder I've lost so much money betting horses. I'm gonna find that little old man and beat him up good. Dern his dyslexic hide.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

That's not even close to being true. If your going to wax rhapsodic about the medical and hormonal effects of steroids, or for that matter try to sound sophisticated about anything, it'd help if you didn't make such elementary mistakes. Humans don't share 99.9% of DNA with each other, and they share about 98% with the closest primates. The amout for equines is far less.

Well that was pretty close. 98%, 99.9%?...That's like missing by 1.9% out of a hunerd. That was a pretty dern good guess if you ask me...

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Dr., interesting you would also pick Icabod. Only other horse in the race besides CD not running on roids. And technically, BB won't be, since his winstrol shot was a while ago.

I did not know this Winter, all the more reason to cheer for Icabod Crane's camp!

XXOO Winter. SS

[xfile]

Well Dr Swine it's now official. Casino Drive has 0% chance to win the Belmont. :cool: June 7 - LATEST BELMONT STAKES UPDATE from
http://www.fullcardreports.com

Casino Has Been Officially Scratched
Apparently after holding a press conference announcing Casino Drive would, in fact, run in the Belmont Stakes things went down hill. Trainer Kazuo Fujisawa said the colt was favoring his left rear hoof after being active on the foot and has decided to scratch.

[Hosshead]

This will be the most meaningless triple crown winner in history ! :ThmbDown:

[Marshall Bennett]

This will be the most meaningless triple crown winner in history ! :ThmbDown:
Then don't watch it !!

[tribecaagent]

Hosshead,

Not knocking your statement, just curious of why you say that?

I think it's ridiculous, borderline comical, that this horse's connections are already planning a match-up with Curlin when he didn't even get through this one yet. While I love this horse (he had his picture taken with 4 Hooters girls - try doing that with Seattle Slew), the thought of Dutrow as a racing legacy makes me ill.

[DJofSD]

I swear, some days I just want to give this place a giant shake and see what's left on the tree.
MEy89l0SOZs

[JoeLong]

NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY.....


How about Conquistador Cello?

[46zilzal]

How about Conquistador Cello?
Ran sustained presser the whole route in the slop.

[Dr.SwineSmeller]

Well Dr Swine it's now official. Casino Drive has 0% chance to win the Belmont. :cool: June 7 - LATEST BELMONT STAKES UPDATE from
http://www.fullcardreports.com

Casino Has Been Officially Scratched
Apparently after holding a press conference announcing Casino Drive would, in fact, run in the Belmont Stakes things went down hill. Trainer Kazuo Fujisawa said the colt was favoring his left rear hoof after being active on the foot and has decided to scratch.

Yeah X-file. I've puked 5 times in my pig's trough already today and I need to go puke again...My pig ain't no more happy about Casino having to scratch than I am either. Probably even less happy about it I'd bet...Porky hasn't had much of an appetite today.

Dr. SwineSmeller

[Tom]

Most win with a percent median in the high 66's: LATE runners.

So 46, I guess Big Brown's Percent median today was 100%?

[toetoe]

Kent would take back Dr. Fager, I swear to God. You can't stalk and pounce in the Belmont, f'cristsakes. It ran just as the Brooklyn ran yesterday, only slightly faster. Alan Garcia is a genius compared to Kent. :faint:

[samyn on the green]

NO colt, in the history of the Belmont, won as an EARLY..... Three 12 furlongs stakes races at the meet and all of them were won in wire to wire fashion. Either you need to revise your computer program or stick to the post race screen shot redboards.

[DJofSD]

Three 12 furlongs stakes races at the meet and all of them were won in wire to wire fashion. Either you need to revise your computer program or stick to the post race screen shot redboards.

Sam, as I believe Mike pointed out earlier in this thread (or perhaps another discussing BB and the Belmont), zz is not referring to visual running style. He is using percentage medium and designations having to do with the distribution of the energy, or, deceleration. Yes, the old PIRCO concept hearlded by Howard Sartin, Jim "the Hat" Bradshaw (RIP), Tom Brohamer and countless others.

The positional running style is sometimes reflective of the energy distribution but not always. You can have a early runner, even a need to lead kind, and if he's in over his head, he'll still run an early energy distribution but from the middle or the back of the pack. Then, there are those horses that like to be forwardly placed but decelerate more slowly than others. Visually, they look early, but from an energy distribution paradyne, they are sustained.

Part of the problem with these discussions is the adaptation by the masses of labels and concepts but without also adapting the underlying concepts. The use of the same terminology used to describe two differing approaches to analyzing data leads to confusion, at best, arguments at worse.

[46zilzal]

Three 12 furlongs stakes races at the meet and all of them were won in wire to wire fashion. Either you need to revise your computer program or stick to the post race screen shot redboards.
That is great: being the iconoclast and understanding energy distribution gives me a BIG leg up on the crowd as it does all the Sartin disciples.