"Built in value" on Big Brown in win pool?

[Imriledup]

It seems to me that at this point, there can be nothing at all that happens to BB for his price to be HIGHER than 1-5 or 1-9.

What is NOT going to be factored into his win price but should be, are these things.

1) If BB was 100% sound, he would be the same exact price...you are taking on the risk of his quarter crack for free if you bet him to win.

2) 3rd race in 5 weeks. This is NOT the spacing the owners would choose if there was no such thing as a triple crown....so, you are having to take on additional risk that this is not the optimum spacing for this particular horse (or any horse for that matter) and its not going to be built into the price...you are taking on 3 races in 5 weeks for free.

3) If Casino Drive was NOT in the race, BB would be the exact same price he's going to be WITH Casino Drive in the race. So, you are taking on additional risk that Casino Drive is a gorilla for free...you are not getting additional juice on your price because he's in the race. The reason i say he'd be the exact same price is because i think he's going to be 1-5 and if there was no Casino Drive, there would still be enough money on other horses (the Birdstone effect) to make BB 1-5 and not 1-9. I don't feel he'll be 2-5 no matter what, so you are betting on him at 1-5 against Casino Drive and you'd be getting 1-5 with no Casino Drive.

Any additional thoughts on a Big Brown win bet? Maybe PLACE is a better price because no one who wants a souvenir ticket is betting place. Can he pay 2.40 to place? I'm thinking he can.

For the record, i think BB is a terrible bet in this race.....i don't have a pick yet, but to bet on a horse at 1-5 in a mile and a half race vs 9 or 10 other rivals isn't all that smart...there are better ways to invest your money i believe.

[cj's dad]

I believe that because of a large # of $2 tickets which will be bought as "souvenirs", that BB will be 1/9, we shall see.

My initial thinking here is to play a tri such as 3 over 5 over all. I think there are 10 in the race(?) so the cost would be $96 for a buck and if BB runs out and the selection hits it could be very profitable. Even BB running 3rd should be decent

Looking at Macho Again, Denis of Cork, and Casino Drive in the 1 spot, adding 2 others 2nd(undecided for now) and all 3rd.

[cj's dad]

I see there are 9 in the Belmont. So, the wager has now dropped to $84.

Question: I see that Zito has 2 horses in; entries are not allowed in the BS, correct?

[Stevie Belmont]

If you like BB...You can key him on top in 3's, 4's, triples and supers.

[Moyers Pond]

Big Brown is a terrible bet. Any horse at 2-5 or lower trying a new distance like 12f is a bad bet. Throw in bad feet and it is an awful bet. Likely winner. Yes. Good bet. Absolutely not.

[toetoe]

Not sure where to set the line on this, but BB is a big fave to pay more to place than to win. It will be a 1/100 near certainty if the other place horse is not CD, who is being pushed upon us so hyperbolically he should come in a plastic jewel case. :D

[HUSKER55]

that the probability of BB and CD finishing out of the money is zero. The odds on those two will be way to low to justify the risk and I don't see how anything is going to prove fruitful unless those two finish out of the money.

I think I will take my $$$ to another race.

Good luck to all :)

husker55

[cj's dad]

I agree 100%- I also think that from a pure gambling standpoint the best play could be betting against BB and CD being in the first or second spot and playing all others to win and place. It's a gamble that could pay off handsomely.

Big Brown is a terrible bet. Any horse at 2-5 or lower trying a new distance like 12f is a bad bet. Throw in bad feet and it is an awful bet. Likely winner. Yes. Good bet. Absolutely not.

[BombsAway Bob]

If you like a horse other than the favorite in the races leading up to the Belmont, & can beat Big Brown (even with Casino Drive), the Pick-3 & Pick-4 payouts will be HUGE OVERLAYS!
If you beat Brown & Casino in P3 & P4, bring your ID with you!
DIRTBAGS @ NYRA have pulled the plug on Dime Supers June 6th & 7th..UGH!

[cj's dad]

I believe it's done because I have seen first hand how the novices can tie up the machines trying to figure out how to do a super. If you like a horse other than the favorite in the races leading up to the Belmont, & can beat Big Brown (even with Casino Drive), the Pick-3 & Pick-4 payouts will be HUGE OVERLAYS!
If you beat Brown & Casino in P3 & P4, bring your ID with you!
DIRTBAGS @ NYRA have pulled the plug on Dime Supers June 6th & 7th..UGH!

[lamboguy]

i say the casino will not be on the board, bet on brown to show and maybe get 2.30, the play has precident, empire maker paid something like 2.70 and funnycide paid 2.30 while the rest of the field was comotose, i think afleet alex paid big too, while i know curlin brought back 2.30

[NoDayJob]

If you believe Big Brown will win the Belmont an exacta with BB on top makes more sense than a place bet.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Not sold on CD and there's the specter of BB's hoof looming; gotta try and beat those for the top two spots and go for something big. I think I can narrow it down to four of the remaining seven.

[Stevie Belmont]

If you like Brown, the exacta makes no sense to me peroid. Unless you want to wack a cold zacta with someone. Like Tale of Ekati who is a player for a money spot in my opinion.

Or play a zacta without BB, if your going another way.