HARLEM ROCKER - UGH

[menifee]

What was that? He either did not like the polytrack or the two turns, but he looked terrible. He should have beat those horses running backwards. I thought this horse was going to be a top three year old this year. Perhaps, you will be able to catch him at a price if they bring him back to a dirt surface.

Stronach rejected Pletcher's advice and decided to run him up north instead of taking him to the Preakness. Looks like that was a major mistake.

Oh well - at least the anti-bridge jumpers made some money.

[nobeyerspls]

What was that? He either did not like the polytrack or the two turns, but he looked terrible. He should have beat those horses running backwards. I thought this horse was going to be a top three year old this year. Perhaps, you will be able to catch him at a price if they bring him back to a dirt surface.

Stronach rejected Pletcher's advice and decided to run him up north instead of taking him to the Preakness. Looks like that was a major mistake.

Oh well - at least the anti-bridge jumpers made some money.

This was a case that demonstrated that dirt beyers are meaningless when evaluating a horse who tries a new surface for the first time. I've always held that they are inaccurate and not predictable so, since surface is my first screen, this 1-5 off the board was no surprise to me. I checked after the race and saw that this guy was assigned a 106, that magic level that says you're "fast" enough to compete in graded stakes.
Memo to the Dick Jerardi types out there: Go figure.

[rastajenk]

If there were no such thing as Beyers, he still would have been odds-on, and he still would have finished out of the money.

[ryesteve]

this 1-5 off the board was no surprise to me.It never is, after the race.

[bettheoverlay]

As far as speed figures go, Bris had a 99 assigned to the last race for the winner Not Bourbon (7F) and a 96 to the last race for Harlem Rocker (1 turn mile). So at least the Bris speed figs pointed up a great disparity in the betting -1/5 versus 4/1.

[nobeyerspls]

It never is, after the race.
You're right. They have to actually run the race before the no surprise is realized. Told all my buddies that he was a bad bet at that price but you weren't there. I'm guessing that those who make odds lines would have passed too.

[plainolebill]

The extra turn is probably key.

[ryesteve]

Told all my buddies that he was a bad bet at that price but you weren't there.I totally agreed with that, so I'm not skeptical about that. I just don't think anyone can ever expect a 1-5 shot to run out, no matter how bad of a value play it is.

[nobeyerspls]

I totally agreed with that, so I'm not skeptical about that. I just don't think anyone can ever expect a 1-5 shot to run out, no matter how bad of a value play it is.
That's a good point and the reason I took a stand against him in pick3's instead of verticals. (I ended up with three two out of threes so I didn't cash.)
For years handicappers have accepted the performance disparity between turf and dirt and they now must deal with the multiple forms of synthetic tracks. I have heard more than a few people bemoan the fact that Curlin and Big Brown could meet up on a synthetic surface.
My initial post looks a tad too arrogant now that I reread it and for that I apologize. I am looking for ways to exploit the surface differences and I have had some modest success with Kenneland/Churchill and Woodbine/Fort Erie (bottom level maidens). I failed miserably playing Arlington so I gave up on it.