First Quarter GDP revised UPWARD, goons on life support....

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but here goes nuttin'.....

...first quarter real GDP was revised upward to a 0.9% annual rate of growth from the previously reported 0.6% rate of growth.
The downward revision to inventories leaves this category poised to add to GDP in the second quarter. It also completely takes away the argument that the first quarter was up solely due to inventories, as inventories now add only 0.2% to the total change (leaving final sales at +0.7%)

Some recession we're having here....

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080529085210HeadlineHits

[ljb]

Does this data come from the same folks that told us gas prices went down last month ?
Just curious.

[pktruckdriver]

Quack Quack:jump: :lol: :bang:



The Goon

[pktruckdriver]

Well Bossman


Like he said where do the numbers come from, not our misleading government I hope, but of course they do. And yes I don't trust those numbers any more than I trusted the numbers Eron either, or the Saving and Loans and there are plenty more to add to mis-numbered numbers, but go ahead and believe, that's ok.


By the way, in my heart I truly wish that we were not in this big mess we're in, God man I love this country and what it stands for and everyone in it, and those who sacrificed for us to have this country the way it is, they all have my thanks. But this country is in big trouble, and be blind if you wish to be, that is your right, but go to your local truckstop or yur local manufacturer's, go in and ask them how things are, ask these big trucking co.'s how there are doing, go to a wal-mart distribution center ask how slow everything has gotten, or a target/meijer/kroger any major chain's D/C and you will see 1st hand how things are, don't take my word for it, go see for yourself that way you can tell them about your numbers and let them know everything will be alright, can you do that, no of course you won't, you may find out I'm right.


Enough Quacking and Table pounding for now.

[OTM Al]

And I hate to sound like a broken record because I know PA means well, but that is still well below the rate needed to sustain job growth and below the rate of population growth, meaning on average an American is worse off than he was before. When we get back around 3% let me know and I'll start agreeing that things are ok.

[ceejay]

Well, I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but here goes nuttin'.....




Some recession we're having here....

http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080529085210HeadlineHits
Of course, this doesn't mean we're not in a recession now. We'll know in three months-- if we're not-- to six months at which point we will probably be out of it. :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

....and I'll start agreeing that things are ok.Agreeing with who? Not me. I never said things are OK. I simply contend we are not in a recession.

[OTM Al]

The final arbiter is the NBER. They will have the data by about September or October to say what was what. They use a lot more data than just GDP by the way. So I guess we can stay tuned til then.

[Snag]

Agreeing with who? Not me. I never said things are OK. I simply contend we are not in a recession.

Let the numbers shown a negative trend and you better stand back. Those figures will be used here in caps and just to justify a depression and all things bad.

[boxcar]

And I hate to sound like a broken record because I know PA means well, but that is still well below the rate needed to sustain job growth and below the rate of population growth, meaning on average an American is worse off than he was before. When we get back around 3% let me know and I'll start agreeing that things are ok.

I don't seem to recall PA saying that "things are ok". I think his point all along was a lot more narrow, i.e we're not in a "recession" per the traditional definition of the term. Now, if you want to infer from this that everything is okay -- then so be it. Be my guest. But having said this, my wife's sales are still ahead of last year's -- granted not at the hefty rate of the last year's compared to '06's, but still ahead at a decent clip. And these sales really depend upon buyers having available discretionary funds!

Boxcar

[riskman]

Auto loans, personal loans, mortgage loans and other segments of instalment debt are still contracting. Auto loans are especially vulnerable with defaults recently hitting a 10-year high of 3.4% in March. And more Americans are dropping the keys to their homes to their local lenders as housing values continue to plunge below the cost of their mortgages.

Consumer deflation has arrived at the absolute worst time as savings rate are barely positive. Soaring energy and food prices, declining home values, surging auto delinquency loans and gradually rising unemployment depict a growing liquidity crisis now underway for the consumer and most, if not all, instalment debt structured to finance domestic consumption. It’s not a pretty picture.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nobody says it can't get worse. Of course, tossing the ol' RECESSION word around as if it's a cute stuffed animal might be enough to push us over the edge and into a real recession. Wouldn't that be cool?

SEVEN PLUS month of non-stop recession talk, and still, no recession. Haven't there been ACTUAL recessions that have lasted less than seven months? That's probably an exaggeration, but you get my point....

[Tom]

The way to prevent a recession is to stop worrying about it and quit watching TVnews, who have a dog in this hunt - they need sensational stories and a recession is just what THEY need. BS. They should be reporting the news, not trying to make it. Coonfidence in our economy instead of CNN is a no brainer.

[ddog]

I won't post the obvious rebuttal to Pa since it won't change anyones mind that posts here and that's fine and if it needs posting then it will be a flyover anyway.

But, in general two points...

I do not think we are in "big trouble" that we can't overcome

I do think recessions are a GOOD thing if needed.

I think we are in the beginning of a long shallow R with the possibility of a double dipper , with the double being a short shallow and I don't give a damn what any MSM outlet says about this stuff.

Some of us get paid to "worry" about it , so I guess I will continue to think and try to do my best.


You disagree PA?

[46zilzal]

From old Merle (I wish that I didn't drink so much) Haggard

Are we rollin' downhill like a snowball headed for hell?
With no kind of chance for the flag or the liberty bell?
I wish a Ford or a Chevy would still last ten years like they should.
Is the best of the free life behind us now and are the good times really over for good?

[jballscalls]

anyone care to put up odds, that IF obama were to become president, the minute that happens PA will be posting that we're in a recession??

[PaceAdvantage]

anyone care to put up odds, that IF obama were to become president, the minute that happens PA will be posting that we're in a recession??Are you serious? Wow....

The minute we have two negative consecutive quarters of GDP and/or monthly job losses APPROACHING past recessions, I will be the first to proclaim that we are probably in a recession. It won't matter who is in the White House. The fact that you would post something like this personally offends me, given my history here on off-topic for the past nine years.

[PaceAdvantage]

I do think recessions are a GOOD thing if needed.

I think we are in the beginning of a long shallow R with the possibility of a double dipper , with the double being a short shallow and I don't give a damn what any MSM outlet says about this stuff.

Some of us get paid to "worry" about it , so I guess I will continue to think and try to do my best.


You disagree PA?Do I disagree? Not at all. And nothing I have posted in the past regarding this subject would disqualify me from saying so.

All I've been saying is that that present data does not support the notion that the US is mired in a recession. And I don't understand why everyone is in such a rush to apply the 'R' label when there will be plenty of time for that if/when the data starts to support such a characterization.

I've presented some pretty hard evidence that shows that job losses at the beginning of past recessions are routinely ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE greater than what we have been experiencing since the end of 2007.

[Tom]

anyone care to put up odds, that IF obama were to become president, the minute that happens PA will be posting that we're in a recession??

A million to one he will not. PA is not only honest, he is smart enough to understand a recession is defined by a set of actual rules, not what people think it it, unlike a surprising lot of posters here.

[OTM Al]

Here is the NBER explanation of what they look at when determining a recession. It is not just GDP.

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

They are the ones that make the final say. What that is we shall see as it is clear that often recessions are not identified until after they are over.

[pktruckdriver]

Now this is from the NEBR whichis the body of Government that does decide if we are in a recession, and they do not use GDP, but the following explains their criteria a little more clearly.



,
A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.

Because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, so the committee refers almost exclusively to monthly indicators. The committee gives relatively little weight to real GDP because it is only measured quarterly and it is subject to continuing, large revisions.

The broadest monthly indicator is employment in the entire economy. The committee generally also studies another monthly indicator of economy-wide activity, personal income less transfer payments, in real terms, adjusted for price changes. In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage of manufacturing and goods: (1) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and trade sectors stated in real terms, adjusted for price changes, and (2) industrial production

Now just recenly GM let go 1/4th of its workforce and UAW states other Manufacturers plan to do the same, due to forcasted economic doom and gloom.

In the last 3 weeks 5 major trucking Co.'s with more than 1000 powerunits(tractor's) went under , citing the economy as reason for bankrupty, GOING BROKE, due to our lovely economy, yes sir.


But Bossman things are going to be ok, right? You tell me so, I think??
God I hope so..........

[ddog]

A million to one he will not. PA is not only honest, he is smart enough to understand a recession is defined by a set of actual rules, not what people think it it, unlike a surprising lot of posters here.

recessions have always been defined under shifting rules and standards as the economy and the very stats change over time even down to how they are/were gathered.

Please post up those rules so we can all see them, I for one would love to see them.
Only thing I have seen posted was from PKT and AL, those don't seem like rules so much as guidelines?

[ddog]

anyone care to put up odds, that IF obama were to become president, the minute that happens PA will be posting that we're in a recession??


100 to 1 he won't , however I will give odds on this ...

FLEE FLEE EVERY white WORKING MAN FOR HIMSELF.
END OF THE WORLD GRAB YOUR GUNS AND TO THE RAMPARTS.

Tom, grab my puter and the gunpowder and come on!

PA, sure, you are offended, BUT do you distance AND repudiate and repudiate absolutely and forcefully the comments of JB?

;)

[ddog]

inflation is controlled , so say all the headline quoting un-goon experts.

what gives, is this guy unamerican?

fire his ass now.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/24888493

What does he know anyway?

[ddog]

I wonder how many of these people were talked out if their homes, all that negative MSM and table-banging must have really scared them out and into default/foreclosures, darn simpletons.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=arGQ_rKO2ai8



gee, i am sure we must be in a growing wage job producing economy, all these trends couldn't possibly happen if we were in an R could they?

Naw, no way, the un-goons must have it right no evidence to the contrary yet.

[Tom]

GM had a lot of overpaid underproducing fat and deadwood.
Blue and white collar.

They need to trim the fat and learn how to manage a corporation.
Their entire history has been throw money at it an make it go away.
The UAW has done nothing to stop outsorcing - they are a major cause of it.

[ddog]

agree with 90%, especially the "questions" at the end?

good short read.

Pa ??

http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/s/kass-the-medias-muddled-message/newsanalysis/investing/10415304.html

[PaceAdvantage]

But Bossman things are going to be ok, right? You tell me so, I think??I have never told you this, so please, stop embarrassing yourself.

[PaceAdvantage]

agree with 90%, especially the "questions" at the end?

good short read.

Pa ??

http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/s/kass-the-medias-muddled-message/newsanalysis/investing/10415304.htmlWhy is everyone looking for my approval or disapproval? All I've done is present statistical evidence that I believe shows we are not in a recession. When the statistical evidence begins to show otherwise, I will be the first to post such.

Now, you guys either don't believe the stats are accurate, or you believe the stats are not a good indicator of whether or not we are in a recession. That's fine. We will agree to disagree.

It's still interesting to note that not a one of you has come back at me with statistical evidence of your own that shows we are in a recession. All you keep doing is presenting either anecdotal evidence, or opinion pieces from other authors.

[GameTheory]

Why is everyone looking for my approval or disapproval? All I've done is present statistical evidence that I believe shows we are not in a recession. When the statistical evidence begins to show otherwise, I will be the first to post such.

Now, you guys either don't believe the stats are accurate, or you believe the stats are not a good indicator of whether or not we are in a recession. That's fine. We will agree to disagree.

It's still interesting to note that not a one of you has come back at me with statistical evidence of your own that shows we are in a recession. All you keep doing is presenting either anecdotal evidence, or opinion pieces from other authors.There is a commercial on the radio here in Denver for a local investing-themed radio show -- it says "Are we in a recession or not? Most economists agree we ARE." (The implication being that therefore you need to listen to the show in order to be smart with your money in these trying times.) Looking at the news reports to try to guess "what most economists think" and it appears that the definition the likes of CNN & others are going with is a non-technical literal definition with only one standard -- an economic downturn (of any size). If you look at the reports from February, they say, "There was a net job loss for the first time in a long time, THEREFORE the recession is here." Period, end of story.

Goons.

[ddog]

Why is everyone looking for my approval or disapproval? All I've done is present statistical evidence that I believe shows we are not in a recession. When the statistical evidence begins to show otherwise, I will be the first to post such.

Now, you guys either don't believe the stats are accurate, or you believe the stats are not a good indicator of whether or not we are in a recession. That's fine. We will agree to disagree.

It's still interesting to note that not a one of you has come back at me with statistical evidence of your own that shows we are in a recession. All you keep doing is presenting either anecdotal evidence, or opinion pieces from other authors.

Pa,

believe me, I am not looking for your approval , just for your welfare.
;)
If nothing of the stats , with figures attached will show you so far that a recession will be called after the revisions are in, then that's ok.

You and Gt can wait for the "call" sometime in the late fall early spring and then you will see how to get ahead or ,handicap!, these things.

It may lead to some good opportunites in the future.
You may even become a proud goon squad member , I have your rookie badge ready to sent out.


it's actually become kind of a running gag.

I say over again, if the SA adjustments are wacko and they are(you really think we ADDED 120,000 construction jobs in any month this year?) and if inflation is understated , and it is, then we have a recession call that will be coming along once the figures get revised.

It doesn't get any simpler than that.
That's all it takes.


That's been amply supported by just the few posts and links here if you wish to consider it.

[ddog]

There is a commercial on the radio here in Denver for a local investing-themed radio show -- it says "Are we in a recession or not? Most economists agree we ARE." (The implication being that therefore you need to listen to the show in order to be smart with your money in these trying times.) Looking at the news reports to try to guess "what most economists think" and it appears that the definition the likes of CNN & others are going with is a non-technical literal definition with only one standard -- an economic downturn (of any size). If you look at the reports from February, they say, "There was a net job loss for the first time in a long time, THEREFORE the recession is here." Period, end of story.

Goons.

I would agree, if you listen to the avg radio and tv "info" that is passed out in this country , you shall be lulled into goon status, although some would say one has to have heavy goon leaning to do either of the above for very long anyway.


I would suggest , go to the BLS and the source stats, look them over for yourself, arrive at your own conclusions after sampling both sides and the hard stats , such as we have.

[chickenhead]

Ken Lewis chat today...

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/0/93820.html

[46zilzal]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/05/news/economy/foreclosure/index.htm?postversion=2008060510

I million homes face forclosure.

[ddog]

so this is how to do it ...
if you get in trouble or lose your job you should sell the house to kee going.

unreal what passes for common sense in this country these days.

What about keeping funds outside your home for emergency?
What an old fashioned idea.
Naw, pile on the debt, what could happen?


"The number one problem is the drop in home prices," Brinkmann said. Declining prices, especially in newer built areas, "are hurting people's ability to recover when they run into trouble -- a divorce or loss of job," he said. "In other days, you could sell the home. But because home prices have fallen so much, in many of those cases, the homes are going into foreclosure."


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080605/home_foreclosures.html?.v=6