Pick 3 or Trifecta??

[tribecaagent]

I'm a 2-3 day a week player who's looking for the highest value wager. My goal is when I cash a winning ticket, I want to get at least 20-1 on my investment.

In other words, let's say $500 is my bankroll each day. I'll look to isolate 4-5 opportunities each day. Therefore, each unit is $100-$125. What exotic wager affords me the highest probability of winning while at the same time achieving my goal of 20-1?

Obviously, value is the leading factor here. My thinking is with Pick 3's, in the first leg, ALWAYS look to beat the first TWO choices (or shred tickets), and in the following legs, NEVER single the morning line favorite. In other words, I like two horses in the first leg (5-1 & 8-1), after that I can go three deep (with the favorite) and four deep (also, using the favorite). 2x3x4= $24 for $2.

In trifecta races, it's my own belief that under nine starters = no play. In order to achieve 20-1, favorites can not run better than second. Here's my play (and I need some advice that's why I'm writing this post): key an overlay of at least 5-1 in ALL THREE positions (with the favorite only "sprinkled" in for second & third) along with 5-6 other mid to long priced horses. i.e. = a/b-c-d-e-f-G/b-c-d-e-f-G (G is 8/5). 1 horse over 6 horses over 6 horses = $30 for $1. THEN, 5 horses over 1 horse over 6 horses = $25 for $1. FINALLY, 5 horses over 6 horses over 1 horse = $25 for $1. NO G in the win slot.

Superfecta's and Pick 4's seem like a LOWER probability of winning, and for a part-time player, that's not a smart idea.

Any input is greatly appreciated. Thanks.

[Bruddah]

and have been doing so since the early 1990's, with very good success. I play one track specifically (OP) and the midwestern circuit, when OP is not running.

I do not play maiden races, nor fields with more than 10. I specifically look for fields of eight or more with the favorites morning line of 2-1 or more. I then eliminate 2 to 4 depending on the number in the race, (8 to 10) The object is to find the best 6 contenders in the race. Example: field of eight and I have eliminated the 7 & 8 as having the least chances of hitting the board. The 1 thru 6 comprise my base place and show. I now select the best 4 of the 6 and put them on the win line. Example from above;

1-2-3-4
1-2-3-4-5-6
1-2-3-4-5-6 $1 tri part wheel = $80

To break even on the bet the $2 tri must pay $160...anything above is profit..I am really looking for chaos races. I usually find 2-4 plays per day = $160 to $320 per day.

In a normal OP meet of 54 days, my profit last year was over $16k. My biggest year was 1999 with $47k won. For me, it's like money in the bank every spring. I have had one losing meet in 16 years. My third year 1995. I lost $350 for the meet.

Knowing your track and trainers at a specific meet can be a tremendous advantage in playing the "Shotgun Trifecta". :ThmbUp:

[1st time lasix]

I agree with the strategy of not using the favorite in the first leg of a pick three or no play. I much prefer pick fours however to achive the stated return goal. There are several posts in this forum on exotic ticket structure. Just search. Best of luck!

[njcurveball]

key an overlay of at least 5-1 in ALL THREE positions .

If you are a good enough handicapper to pick these types of horses, a simple win/place strategy will be much better on your wallet and your brain.

Trifecta takeouts are usually 25% or more. Adding more horses to the ticket, just means more "spins of the wheel" at the high takeout. You certainly will cash more tickets with more horses, but you will also cash a lot more betting win and place.

Ponying up $75 a race keying a 5-1 shot could put you over $1,000 in the red before you know it. You may miss out on 3 or 4 juicy priced wins during that time as well. Other times you will run 2nd to the favorite and also get nothing. If you have a very large bankroll and can take the emotion out of the next play when you are $1,000 down for the week, then you probably dont need anyone here to give you advice. It is going to be hard for most not to start "gambling" when faced with that and either back off and bet to win and miss a $2,000 trifecta or go longer with Superfectas and possibly miss the trifecta as well.

Good luck,
Jim

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

You can break up your pick 3 tickets and play only the value plays you want to cash.

make "A" your favorites and make "B" your non favorites



A A A

A A B

A B A

B A A

B B A

B A B

A B B

B B B


JUST PLAY THE LAST 4 TICKETS ABOVE FOR A WINNING TICKET WITH TWO NON FAVORITES AND ONE FAVORITE. OR THE LAST TICKET WILL HAVE ALL THREE RACES WITH NON FAVORITES.

You may even want to get the final ticket a few times. But the final ticket will be the most expensive usually.

[cj's dad]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oddy5
Is there a bet that you will always make. A certain wheel, box, etc.

For me, I usually always do a 3 horse exacta box for $12. One win and I usually break even for the day.



A few points to consider; when you bet a 3 way ex box, 5 of your 6 wagers are losers. Also, if you are playing half the card, say 5 of 10 races, you are wagering $60. So, to break even you would have to hit a $60 exacta. Sounds pretty tough to do on a continuing basis.

My fav bets are pick 3's which many tracks have on a rolling basis. I typically use a combination ticket ( I know, there are losing wagers on this bet also) such as 2x2x3=$12. I have found the payouts to be higher on average than an exacta. Example; at Tampa on Derby day, I hit races 4-5-6 for $857 with a 4/5 - 14/1 - 18/1 doing a 2x2x2 for $8.
Good luck and don't be afraid to change your tactics. I did and it worked for me.
__________________
My grandfather was the town drunk; unfortunately for the family, the town was New York City !!

[cj's dad]

I'm a 2-3 day a week player who's looking for the highest value wager. My goal is when I cash a winning ticket, I want to get at least 20-1 on my investment.

In other words, let's say $500 is my bankroll each day. I'll look to isolate 4-5 opportunities each day. Therefore, each unit is $100-$125. What exotic wager affords me the highest probability of winning while at the same time achieving my goal of 20-1?

Obviously, value is the leading factor here. My thinking is with Pick 3's, in the first leg, ALWAYS look to beat the first TWO choices (or shred tickets), and in the following legs, NEVER single the morning line favorite. In other words, I like two horses in the first leg (5-1 & 8-1), after that I can go three deep (with the favorite) and four deep (also, using the favorite). 2x3x4= $24 for $2.

In trifecta races, it's my own belief that under nine starters = no play. In order to achieve 20-1, favorites can not run better than second. Here's my play (and I need some advice that's why I'm writing this post): key an overlay of at least 5-1 in ALL THREE positions (with the favorite only "sprinkled" in for second & third) along with 5-6 other mid to long priced horses. i.e. = a/b-c-d-e-f-G/b-c-d-e-f-G (G is 8/5). 1 horse over 6 horses over 6 horses = $30 for $1. THEN, 5 horses over 1 horse over 6 horses = $25 for $1. FINALLY, 5 horses over 6 horses over 1 horse = $25 for $1. NO G in the win slot.

Superfecta's and Pick 4's seem like a LOWER probability of winning, and for a part-time player, that's not a smart idea.

Any input is greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Re: bold #1- see my previous post with info on pik 3 at TB 5/3/08 - 4/5 with 14/1 with 18/1 paid $857 for $8 wager (2x2x2)

Re: bold #2- your math is off 2x3x4x$1=$24

Re: bold #3- if fav wins and is followed by 5/2 and 5/1, you will probably not get 20/1. But, if fav is followed by 15/1 and 30/1, guarantee you beat 20/1.

[jcrabboy]

If you are a good enough handicapper to pick these types of horses, a simple win/place strategy will be much better on your wallet and your brain.

Trifecta takeouts are usually 25% or more. Adding more horses to the ticket, just means more "spins of the wheel" at the high takeout. You certainly will cash more tickets with more horses, but you will also cash a lot more betting win and place.

Ponying up $75 a race keying a 5-1 shot could put you over $1,000 in the red before you know it. You may miss out on 3 or 4 juicy priced wins during that time as well. Other times you will run 2nd to the favorite and also get nothing. If you have a very large bankroll and can take the emotion out of the next play when you are $1,000 down for the week, then you probably dont need anyone here to give you advice. It is going to be hard for most not to start "gambling" when faced with that and either back off and bet to win and miss a $2,000 trifecta or go longer with Superfectas and possibly miss the trifecta as well.

Good luck,
Jim

I agree with this completely.

I also think if you are good enough at handicapping the winner - Daily Doubles and Pick 3's with one horse per leg can be very profitable. Wager cost $2, with take out only extracted once for the 2 or 3 races. A run of losers has a marginal effect on your bankroll and one winning Double or pick 3 almost always puts you solidly in the black.

Jimmie

[Tom Barrister]

I don't recommend trying to fit your plays into a predetermined mold (e.g. a $2,000 payout for a $100 investment). Potentially profitable opportunities can be missed this way, and you might force a play where there isn't any value.

Since you asked about the trifecta vs. the pick three for what's essentially a 2000-1 winning-combination payout, my advice would be to only play when you can toss the obvious public choice completely off of the ticket (out of the top three in the trifecta and out of all three legs of the pick three).

[JustRalph]

I agree with the strategy of not using the favorite in the first leg of a pick three or no play. I much prefer pick fours however to achive the stated return goal. There are several posts in this forum on exotic ticket structure. Just search. Best of luck!

I like this point, but sometimes you have to look at the races down the line. Sometimes it can be worth it if the fav turns a pick 3 into a pick 2.

Hollywood Today 5-29-08 Pik 3 Races 3-4-5

Race 3

Winner off at 2.60-1 the fav.

Race 4 The 3rd choice wins 3.60-1 pays 9.20

Race 5 upset at 11.50-1 pays $25 to win.

1x4x4 for $16 bucks. Pik 3 pays $526

If you are going to put demands on yourself like 20-1 odds on your winners......... you are going to be hunting around awful hard.........there are days when they just aren't there. Depending on where you play of course.

[TrifectaMike]

I don't recommend trying to fit your plays into a predetermined mold (e.g. a $2,000 payout for a $100 investment). Potentially profitable opportunities can be missed this way, and you might force a play where there isn't any value.

Since you asked about the trifecta vs. the pick three for what's essentially a 2000-1 winning-combination payout, my advice would be to only play when you can toss the obvious public choice completely off of the ticket (out of the top three in the trifecta and out of all three legs of the pick three).

Why the emphasize on "tossing" the favorite out. Wouldn't it be better to include the favorite and add contenders along with the favorite. Tossing out the favorite is always a risky proposition. I prefer to add, not minus. If you have a long price horse play it along with the public choice... in a trifecta if not in the first slot, at minimum in the second and third slot.

[JustRalph]

Just in case, I know you have probably already have , but Tribeccaagent, if you haven't read Steven Crist's "Exotic Wagering" book......... I highly suggest it.

FYI


Any database types able to dig up how many trifecta's pay over 500-1 on a given day? Maybe Weekends versus Weekdays?

[tribecaagent]

I just logged on and was pleasantly surprised with the number of QUALITY responses.

Yes, my math was a little off but it was 3:40am and I couldn't see straight. :sleeping:

Thank you to:
1) Bruddah - superb post, very helpfull
2) 1st time lasix
3) njcurveball - one of my strengths is keeping my emotions under control and yes, I think my opinion is pretty good. My feeling is to keep evolving and getting better. You're either moving forward or backward.Thank you.
4) Magichorseman - Great post.
5) cj's Dad - late night. Thank you for pointing that out.
6) jccrabboy
7) Tom Barrister
8) Trifecta Mike - in trifecta races, I'm looking for two key factors: a. at least nine starters & b. vulnerable favorites. Basic ingredients for a big payoff.
9) Just Ralph - I read the book and enjoyed it. Thanks for suggesting it.

I have a very interesting article for all of you.


http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080502/OPINION06/80501042/1082/OPINION

[tribecaagent]

Does anybody have any comments on this wager?

It's 50 cent base and 15% takeout.

Ive been keeping an eye on this sequence and today for instance, here is the morning line followed by price paid by the winner.

Morning line Winner paid
Leg A - 5-1 $35.20
Leg B - 5/2 $6.00
Leg C - 3-1 $4.80
Leg D - 5/2 $5.00
Leg E - 7/2 $8.00

50 cent parlay = $633.60

50 cent pick 5 w/takout = $1,218

Not going to find too many 100% overlays.

[Valuist]

I think the biggest difference is in the takeout. A 24% takeout for a P3 is really an 8% takeout of 3 separate events.

As for trifectas, I've always felt that you need AT LEAST 9 betting interests to make playing them worthwhile.

[FlyinLate]

Obviously, value is the leading factor here. My thinking is with Pick 3's, in the first leg, ALWAYS look to beat the first TWO choices (or shred tickets), and in the following legs, NEVER single the morning line favorite. In other words, I like two horses in the first leg (5-1 & 8-1), after that I can go three deep (with the favorite) and four deep (also, using the favorite). 2x3x4= $24 for $2.


This is a poor stategy in my eyes. If there are rolling pick 3's, it does not have to be the first leg to beat the first two choices. Maybe the first two choices look outstanding in the first but more vulnerable in the 3rd leg. There is no need to only play ballsy on the first leg, any leg can be the tough one. If your more confident in your longshots in the 2nd leg than the first, play it that way.

[TrifectaMike]

The real question is: Is leg 1 of the pick-3 more significant than leg 2 and 3, and is leg 2 more significant than leg 3, or are all legs equal? Keep in mind that a loss in Leg 1 invalidates your ticket.

Mike

[tribecaagent]

Valuist - I've heard this before and I just don't understand how it's true if you're not alive going into the final leg? My thinking is if I play and get eliminated in leg A, it's still 24%. Let's say I go down in LEG B, that's 12% & 12%. Similar to a double. I think all the value is going into the final leg.

As far as the pick 4, this is where I need work and this is where the seasoned pro has a huge edge over someone like me. I DO rate each race with A,B,C & D contenders. However, its rare to get FOUR consecutive races when one of my contenders win. I'll get three, rarely four. I'm progressing as far as spotting the race which needs more coverage, but I need work. So while I'm working on that (on paper), sometimes it's a tough call between pick 3 or trifecta.

FlyinLate - I agree with you, however, there are exceptions. First of all, how many times have you played the first two choices in the first leg, and(according to the morning line) in leg B your three's morning line look something like this: 6-1, 8-1, & 12-1? By post time, the 2-1 morning line favorite is 7/2, the 5/2 second choice is 3-1, and your three are something like 4-1, 5-1, & 7-1. What looked like a race where we had an edge, turns chaotic and the whole racetrack decides THIS is the race to spread. Obviously, if the track we're playing has doubles we can clearly see the board. If not, my preference is to KNOW I have value going forward by beating the first two choices right from jump. This way I beat the first two choices in leg A, and can continue to beat top two choices in leg B & C.

[thespaah]

I'm a 2-3 day a week player who's looking for the highest value wager. My goal is when I cash a winning ticket, I want to get at least 20-1 on my investment.

In other words, let's say $500 is my bankroll each day. I'll look to isolate 4-5 opportunities each day. Therefore, each unit is $100-$125. What exotic wager affords me the highest probability of winning while at the same time achieving my goal of 20-1?

Obviously, value is the leading factor here. My thinking is with Pick 3's, in the first leg, ALWAYS look to beat the first TWO choices (or shred tickets), and in the following legs, NEVER single the morning line favorite. In other words, I like two horses in the first leg (5-1 & 8-1), after that I can go three deep (with the favorite) and four deep (also, using the favorite). 2x3x4= $24 for $2.

In trifecta races, it's my own belief that under nine starters = no play. In order to achieve 20-1, favorites can not run better than second. Here's my play (and I need some advice that's why I'm writing this post): key an overlay of at least 5-1 in ALL THREE positions (with the favorite only "sprinkled" in for second & third) along with 5-6 other mid to long priced horses. i.e. = a/b-c-d-e-f-G/b-c-d-e-f-G (G is 8/5). 1 horse over 6 horses over 6 horses = $30 for $1. THEN, 5 horses over 1 horse over 6 horses = $25 for $1. FINALLY, 5 horses over 6 horses over 1 horse = $25 for $1. NO G in the win slot.

Superfecta's and Pick 4's seem like a LOWER probability of winning, and for a part-time player, that's not a smart idea.

Any input is greatly appreciated. Thanks.
you and i differ. I am looking at the best horses and I use trifectas as a way to increase my profit. But I don't allow the opinions of the other bettors(tote odds) to influenece my wagers. If a race appears to be of little value, I skip it. Or bet a straight wager and stay clear of exotics. However, if the value is there and it looks like a solid play, I don't mind taking a swipe at a trifecta that will net me $100 or $20 for my 12 to 24 dollar investment. I am a small player by most people's standards. My usual bankroll for the day is two to three hundred dollars

[ryesteve]

I don't allow the opinions of the other bettors(tote odds) to influenece my wagers. If a race appears to be of little value, I skip it.Either I don't get what you're saying, or this is a contradiction. If you're skipping a race due to little value, then you HAVE allowed the tote odds to influence your wagers.

[thespaah]

Either I don't get what you're saying, or this is a contradiction. If you're skipping a race due to little value, then you HAVE allowed the tote odds to influence your wagers.
No you're not getting it.
Example. Field of 7. Three very live horses with the lowest being 8/5 . The highest 2-1......The other 4 horses are there for 4th place. Am I going to bet this thing? Hell no. Why should I?. The risk/reward equation is on the negative side. Yeah, I most likely will cash a ticket. But who cares about $30 trifectas.
bit in reply ot the OP. I am not going to ignore horses juts because are under 5-1.
Suppose the field is 10 or 11 horses? two 3-1 horses finish in the money with say a 1-1 ands the tri could end up over 300 bucks!

[JohnGalt1]

Another factor no one mentioned is most players bet one race at a time--trifecta-- and don't look ahead for serial wagers.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the trifecta pools 2-4 times the pick 3 pools?

Why this might matter is a three long shots in the trifecta would pay more than 3 long shots in the pick 3.

If the tri pool is 10k and the pick 3 pool is 3K and using the above example you might get half or all of the tri pool, which would pay more than getting the whole pool in the pick 3.

[BCOURTNEY]

Another factor no one mentioned is most players bet one race at a time--trifecta-- and don't look ahead for serial wagers.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the trifecta pools 2-4 times the pick 3 pools?

Why this might matter is a three long shots in the trifecta would pay more than 3 long shots in the pick 3.

If the tri pool is 10k and the pick 3 pool is 3K and using the above example you might get half or all of the tri pool, which would pay more than getting the whole pool in the pick 3.

I disagree with this assessment, firstly on the basis that trifecta
pools are "hogged" with frequency rates even approaching those of
hogging a pick-3 pool. Secondly, a player that plays to simply hog
an entire pool cannot win long term, it's akin to attempting to
not only find the needle in the haystack but thread it also in
the process. The mathmatical basis for the selection of a pick 3
( and this logic applies to daily doubles and pick 6's as well )
is mathmatically it provides the largest return on your investment,
this includes the selection of longshots, due to the multiplicative
advantage gained versus the trrack take out. Now I will admit there
are very rare cases in which you can find 3 or more horses which all
have positive expectations in a single race when combined will
produce an effect to combat even the takeout in a single race ( but
isn't is even higher for trifectas ... 20-25% ), but this requires
very very sophisicated algerbra and joint probabilities ... this is
not very feasible for a human or let alone even a computer to compute
quickly, accurately or efficently at post time.
My Capping System Prob
(it's a computer for me, but could be paper and pen)
Prob = 0.14
Public Prob
Prob = 0.12
Take = 0.17
1 Race
E = 0.14(0.83/0.12) == (0.14/0.12)*(0.83) = .9683 ( Negative Expectation )
3 Races
E = (0.14/0.12)*(0.14/0.12)*(0.14/0.12)*(0.83) = 1.318 ( Positive Expectation )
X Races ...

Let me add that the key is to purchase tickets with positive expectation based on your system in question. Sometimes, although rare your system will have a pick 3 ticket formed and none of the middle leg has postitive expection so then you select the horses with the lowest negatative expection if the overall expectation is positive, or you pass. This is the same way that insurance companies work, they don't expect everyone to die in the same day, and hey even then who the hell would they have to pay? Death Rate is the track take out. Cool eh?

[juanepstein]

$1 tri= $16.00

a,b
a,b
1,2,3,4

a,b
1,2,3,4
a,b

[tribecaagent]

BCOURTNEY,

Can you please elaborate more on "hogging a pool" & "hogged with frequency rates"? This is the first time I've heard these terms and I'm very curious as to what they mean.

Also, if a player aims to "hog" a peticular pool, why is it impossible for them to win long term?

Thank you kindly.

[BCOURTNEY]

BCOURTNEY,

Can you please elaborate more on "hogging a pool" & "hogged with frequency rates"? This is the first time I've heard these terms and I'm very curious as to what they mean.

Also, if a player aims to "hog" a peticular pool, why is it impossible for them to win long term?

Thank you kindly.

To "hog" a pool is to get the entire amount of the pool because you hold the only winning ticket. This happens sometime when someone gets an entire pool amount with a .10 cent super and no one has dollar tickets. Normally a ten cent player would be paid at a rate of 1/10'th of a dollar holders ticket, this is not the case in the case of a single ticket holder, you get the whole pool paid to you. The point was that trifecta pools don't get hogged often, perhaps more frequently on smaller tracks but it is a very rare event, and pick-3's sometimes do get hogged. The bottom line was if you play to hog a pool for example by selecting the 3 or 4 longest odds horses in a single race, and dutifully box them over and over, you will lose more than you win. The pick 3 provides more value, it is obvious and the math is simple. I disagreed with the assesment that 3 longs in a trifecta pay more than 3 in a pick three, I don't have any numbers that show this trifecta pays more theory and I felt inclined to respond.

[BlueShoe]

Interesting to see that we have such different ideas about playing the tri's and triples.Unlike many,I often key a solid favorite on top in the tri's,not toss it out.The catch is that the second choice must not be played underneath the favorite.If it is a must use,then the bet is passed.Better still if the 3rd choice can also be eliminated.Winning even money favs with a pair of 5 to 15 shots second and third often pay quite well.As mentioned earlier,pay attention to the takeout.A few tracks take out as much as a horrible 30% on some exotic wagers,making them unplayable for serious bettors.

[Valuist]

Valuist - I've heard this before and I just don't understand how it's true if you're not alive going into the final leg? My thinking is if I play and get eliminated in leg A, it's still 24%. Let's say I go down in LEG B, that's 12% & 12%. Similar to a double. I think all the value is going into the final leg.



The ONLY time takeout matters in horse racing is when you win. The P3 is still three mutually exclusive events while a trifecta is one event where the placings of the top three runners are not mutually exclusive of each other. Whether you specifically are alive or not does not alter the takeout.

Compare the P3 payoffs with parlays of the three winners and you will invariably find the P3 pays off better, usually by a decent margin.

[tribecaagent]

BCOURTNEY - Thanks for clearing that up. Frankly, I can't say I think about taking a WHOLE POOL down. Maybe I should think bigger. :)

Valuist - I never looked at it like that. Interesting.

How about some more insightful ideas from you guys? Do you have an opinion on the Monmouth Pick 5? Any strategies to attack this unique bet?

For a smaller player like me ($100-$125 per unit), it's a big edge. I can really spread out because the base is 50 CENTS.

[juanepstein]

To "hog" a pool is to get the entire amount of the pool because you hold the only winning ticket. This happens sometime when someone gets an entire pool amount with a .10 cent super and no one has dollar tickets. Normally a ten cent player would be paid at a rate of 1/10'th of a dollar holders ticket, this is not the case in the case of a single ticket holder, you get the whole pool paid to you. The point was that trifecta pools don't get hogged often, perhaps more frequently on smaller tracks but it is a very rare event, and pick-3's sometimes do get hogged. The bottom line was if you play to hog a pool for example by selecting the 3 or 4 longest odds horses in a single race, and dutifully box them over and over, you will lose more than you win. The pick 3 provides more value, it is obvious and the math is simple. I disagreed with the assesment that 3 longs in a trifecta pay more than 3 in a pick three, I don't have any numbers that show this trifecta pays more theory and I felt inclined to respond.

just watch racing from australia. there are trifecta pools being bought everyday.

[cj's dad]

and have been doing so since the early 1990's, with very good success. I play one track specifically (OP) and the midwestern circuit, when OP is not running.

I do not play maiden races, nor fields with more than 10. I specifically look for fields of eight or more with the favorites morning line of 2-1 or more. I then eliminate 2 to 4 depending on the number in the race, (8 to 10) The object is to find the best 6 contenders in the race. Example: field of eight and I have eliminated the 7 & 8 as having the least chances of hitting the board. The 1 thru 6 comprise my base place and show. I now select the best 4 of the 6 and put them on the win line. Example from above;

1-2-3-4
1-2-3-4-5-6
1-2-3-4-5-6 $1 tri part wheel = $80

To break even on the bet the $2 tri must pay $160...anything above is profit..I am really looking for chaos races. I usually find 2-4 plays per day = $160 to $320 per day.

In a normal OP meet of 54 days, my profit last year was over $16k. My biggest year was 1999 with $47k won. For me, it's like money in the bank every spring. I have had one losing meet in 16 years. My third year 1995. I lost $350 for the meet.

Knowing your track and trainers at a specific meet can be a tremendous advantage in playing the "Shotgun Trifecta". :ThmbUp:

I like this logic. I had not thought of this approach.
Will try this Saturday @ Belmont. Thanks.

An approach I have occasionally taken on tris is to take the 2 you like best and wheel them 2nd and 3rd with all 1st. Best tri I hit this year @ $1300+ for an $18 wager. I had already boxed the same 2 in an exacta, so it was a hedge bet.

[MaxT]

and have been doing so since the early 1990's, with very good success. I play one track specifically (OP) and the midwestern circuit, when OP is not running.

I do not play maiden races, nor fields with more than 10. I specifically look for fields of eight or more with the favorites morning line of 2-1 or more. I then eliminate 2 to 4 depending on the number in the race, (8 to 10) The object is to find the best 6 contenders in the race. Example: field of eight and I have eliminated the 7 & 8 as having the least chances of hitting the board. The 1 thru 6 comprise my base place and show. I now select the best 4 of the 6 and put them on the win line. Example from above;

1-2-3-4
1-2-3-4-5-6
1-2-3-4-5-6 $1 tri part wheel = $80

To break even on the bet the $2 tri must pay $160...anything above is profit..I am really looking for chaos races. I usually find 2-4 plays per day = $160 to $320 per day.

In a normal OP meet of 54 days, my profit last year was over $16k. My biggest year was 1999 with $47k won. For me, it's like money in the bank every spring. I have had one losing meet in 16 years. My third year 1995. I lost $350 for the meet.

Knowing your track and trainers at a specific meet can be a tremendous advantage in playing the "Shotgun Trifecta". :ThmbUp:

WOW! That sounds like a brilliant strategy. I, like the original poster, have a limited bankroll at the moment. Looking over the Daily Racing Form results page, I see lots of trifectas that pay very little compared to the money invested in this type of play. May I ask how you make a determination as to which races you consider playable - those likely to pay off to break even?

Thanks!

[rrbauer]

To "hog" a pool is to get the entire amount of the pool because you hold the only winning ticket. This happens sometime when someone gets an entire pool amount with a .10 cent super and no one has dollar tickets. Normally a ten cent player would be paid at a rate of 1/10'th of a dollar holders ticket, this is not the case in the case of a single ticket holder, you get the whole pool paid to you. The point was that trifecta pools don't get hogged often, perhaps more frequently on smaller tracks but it is a very rare event, and pick-3's sometimes do get hogged. The bottom line was if you play to hog a pool for example by selecting the 3 or 4 longest odds horses in a single race, and dutifully box them over and over, you will lose more than you win. The pick 3 provides more value, it is obvious and the math is simple. I disagreed with the assesment that 3 longs in a trifecta pay more than 3 in a pick three, I don't have any numbers that show this trifecta pays more theory and I felt inclined to respond.

Trying to take-down an entire pool is a compelling activity that occupies way too much space in these threads. A friend of mine who worked for a bus company in Chicago and was a brilliant math guy (and handicapper) used to spend hours on hours putting together plays that would take-down the entire pool. I can tell you that ten years later, the guy still works for the bus company and the pools are still there for the taking!

Along the same line, another guy I know (P4-player) took down the P4 pool at Tampa Bay Downs with a pretty ordinary ticket and taking down the entire pool wasn't even his objective when that happened. Point is that an approach that continues to emphasize value picks that have a reasonable chance of winning will often produce payoffs that far exceed most players' expectations.

As to Tri's versus P3's...with Tri's you have a much better idea of what the various combinations will pay because the odds are in front of you.

[tribecaagent]

I like this logic. I had not thought of this approach.
Will try this Saturday @ Belmont. Thanks.

An approach I have occasionally taken on tris is to take the 2 you like best and wheel them 2nd and 3rd with all 1st. Best tri I hit this year @ $1300+ for an $18 wager. I had already boxed the same 2 in an exacta, so it was a hedge bet.

cj's dad,

Was Da'Tara one of the four you used "on top"?