MET Mile

[john del riccio]

DIVINE PARK may get the lead & not look back in here, he doesn't need the lead, but he certainly may frind himself if front early. If COMMENDABLE goes, he can sit the trip just the same.

John

[Onion Monster]

I'm going to lightly use Lord Snowdon.

Why?
1. Good post. I still think the rail is good.
2. Hoping for Divine Park to regress. He got a real good pace set-up last time, and is coming back within 30 days off a big fig.
3. Betting Commentator to clunk. I think drawing outside is a disadvantage today. He could get too wide if First Defense and Kiss the Kid are sent.

I'll bet Snowdon at 8-1 or better. And play the entry and/or First Defence if they reach double digit odds.

[john del riccio]

I'm going to lightly use Lord Snowdon.

Why?
1. Good post. I still think the rail is good.
2. Hoping for Divine Park to regress. He got a real good pace set-up last time, and is coming back within 30 days off a big fig.
3. Betting Commentator to clunk. I think drawing outside is a disadvantage today. He could get too wide if First Defense and Kiss the Kid are sent.

I'll bet Snowdon at 8-1 or better. And play the entry and/or First Defence if they reach double digit odds.

Onion,

Snowdon has never been past 7f and is 4 lengths slower than DP. Make sure you get all of that 12-1 ML. COMENTATOR runs freakish races, than falls apart at times so he is hard to read. PR#MIUM WINE looks lie a 1TM might hit him right in the head.

JOhn

[Tee]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see First Defence on the lead.

[john del riccio]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see First Defence on the lead.

If he runs back to his 7f race at SAR he would be eligible to get th elead. His races at BEL are not a strong as his races at MTH and CD over an off track.

Should be an interesting race. 2-1 on DP isn't making me salivate, I was hoping to squeeze 3-1 out of him

JOhn

[juanepstein]

wasnt impressed with most of the field when they hit the dirt.

#4 divine park looks the best

[46zilzal]

Good one: great battles late.

[john del riccio]

DIVINE PARK Is a serious racehorse. He didn't break well, rated, went wide, and accelerated past Comentator quite easily. When you think about all the horses that have won this race (Forego, Kelso, Holy Bull...), you know you gotta have stones to get the job done.

John

PS I think Holy Bull's Met Mile was as awesome a performance by a 3yo vs. older in this race that I have ever seen. Jimmy Croll spoket o me about that race years later and his face was glowing like he was talking about his first born....

[BetHorses!]

I'm going to lightly use Lord Snowdon.



This horse was Giant value today. Ridiculous price. Good pick! You win in the long run with these

[Dahoss9698]

DIVINE PARK Is a serious racehorse. He didn't break well, rated, went wide, and accelerated past Comentator quite easily. When you think about all the horses that have won this race (Forego, Kelso, Holy Bull...), you know you gotta have stones to get the job done.

John

PS I think Holy Bull's Met Mile was as awesome a performance by a 3yo vs. older in this race that I have ever seen. Jimmy Croll spoket o me about that race years later and his face was glowing like he was talking about his first born....

I'm not sure how easily he accelerated past Commentator. Seems like he was all out to run past a Commentator that set a fast pace, put away First Defence midstretch and got caught late. They crawled home. Divine Park is okay, but nothing serious.

[the little guy]

I don't know how anyone could watch this race and not think Commentator ran the best race. He was involved in a torrid pace, that completely cooked First Defence, and was passed late by his only competition who was the beneficiary of the pace.

No knock on Divine Park, his last two races were both solid efforts, but Commentator ran the better race today. I imagine anyone who does pace adjusted figs will agree. CJ?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Last half in 52 2/5

yuck!

[PaceAdvantage]

The final time was woeful. You would think such a solid early pace would allow for a closer to run a much better final time. What happened in this race?

And I agree with TLG. Commentator ran a helluva race.

[asH]

Commentator is basically a sprinter who probably needs to have the lead before the 1/4 pole (that’s how Velasquez rode him). His last 3 graded sprint races of 07' didn’t yield much against tough sprinters. Well placed in 08', with softer company and early fractions help yield 2 wins...Had only to overcome distance, and Devine Park today. Nice job by Zito/Velasquez in understanding Commentator's limititations

[samyn on the green]

Commentator was a sight to behold in the paddock at the 2008 Met Mile. (http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=BEL&CTY=USA&DATE=20080526&RN=10) The gelding got a A+ in the looks department and a A+ in the "looking ready to run" evaluation. Even though Commentator is a chestnut his coat was dappled like the way a gray horse gets dappled, I had not seen such a healthy looking coat on a chestnut like that before. Commentator looked like he was at peak fitness and health. There there was the prancing and dancing, Commentator was on his toes in the paddock and prancing like the alpha horse. He looked ready and anxious to run, without the sweat and fractious behavior of a horse that is too fresh. He looked like a winner in the paddock.

Commentator ran a great race on a suicidal pace. First Defense was all out pressing the pace and gave Commentator all he could handle on the lead. Commentator's bravest moment in the eight furlong test was when he lost the lead mid-stretch and looked to be out of contention. However with a surge of equine competitiveness he gamely regained the lead. Valor is admired and cherished but it does not guarantee a trip to the winners circle. It would not be Commentator's day as he was overhauled near the wire by the late closing winner Divine Park. Take nothing away from Divine Park but Commentator ran a very brave and inspiring race. Sometimes bravery is not rewarded in battle and Commentator was very brave in defeat.

[john del riccio]

I am breakng the MET Mile out. The final time really is well outside the range of what could be expected by those horses. Are the the G-I horses in this spot only 3/5s better than entry level SB allowance horses ? There were 3 staraight grass races prior to the MET mile which means the dirt course was not used in almost 2 hours. This is a very typical scenario for a wildly different racing surface.

Commentator ran a very good race but I will take a horse like Divine Park over a horse like Commentator (style wise) every time.

John

[proximity]

I am breakng the MET Mile out. The final time really is well outside the range of what could be expected by those horses. Are the the G-I horses in this spot only 3/5s better than entry level SB allowance horses ? There were 3 staraight grass races prior to the MET mile which means the dirt course was not used in almost 2 hours. This is a very typical scenario for a wildly different racing surface.


this definitely makes sense (at least to me). i'd say this race is about an 82 on your scale. it will be interesting to see (relatively) what some of the other figures (beyer,...) are for this card.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Commentator was a sight to behold in the paddock at the 2008 Met Mile. (http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=BEL&CTY=USA&DATE=20080526&RN=10) The gelding got a A+ in the looks department and a A+ in the "looking ready to run" evaluation. Even though Commentator is a chestnut his coat was dappled like the way a gray horse gets dappled, I had not seen such a healthy looking coat on a chestnut like that before. Commentator looked like he was at peak fitness and health. There there was the prancing and dancing, Commentator was on his toes in the paddock and prancing like the alpha horse. He looked ready and anxious to run, without the sweat and fractious behavior of a horse that is too fresh. He looked like a winner in the paddock.

Commentator ran a great race on a suicidal pace. First Defense was all out pressing the pace and gave Commentator all he could handle on the lead. Commentator's bravest moment in the eight furlong test was when he lost the lead mid-stretch and looked to be out of contention. However with a surge of equine competitiveness he gamely regained the lead. Valor is admired and cherished but it does not guarantee a trip to the winners circle. It would not be Commentator's day as he was overhauled near the wire by the late closing winner Divine Park. Take nothing away from Divine Park but Commentator ran a very brave and inspiring race. Sometimes bravery is not rewarded in battle and Commentator was very brave in defeat.


He ran his last 1/4 in 27 3/5.......last 1/2 in 52 4/5

C'mon.....get a room!

[OTM Al]

I'll make a few observations about the race seeing as keying Divine Park was instrumental in my (REDBOARD!!!!! hey I've been in the crapper until yesterday so I earned that one) late P4 score yesterday.

First, there was a strong wind from the south yesterday. Kennedy Airport logged an average of 26 mph in the hour the race was held. It was probably a bit lessened further inland, but 20mph is not out of the question. The wind did also pick up during the day. This would be a headwind in the stretch and of course probably aided the early fractions. Divine Park made up 7 1/2 lengths during the last half, 5 1/2 behind at the 1/2 pole to 2 ahead at the finish. The previous 2 races were turf routes which would have a very different energy profile which should have given the runners a bit more ummph left against the wind in their stretch run. These things make the time for the final half understandable. DRF gave a 109 Beyer for the race. Perhaps a little high, but not outside reason.

Frankly I didn't expect Commentator to do that well (though I wasn't daring enough not to use him on secondary tickets) and think he did run a pretty good race.

[john del riccio]

I'll make a few observations about the race seeing as keying Divine Park was instrumental in my (REDBOARD!!!!! hey I've been in the crapper until yesterday so I earned that one) late P4 score yesterday.

First, there was a strong wind from the south yesterday. Kennedy Airport logged an average of 26 mph in the hour the race was held. It was probably a bit lessened further inland, but 20mph is not out of the question. The wind did also pick up during the day. This would be a headwind in the stretch and of course probably aided the early fractions. Divine Park made up 7 1/2 lengths during the last half, 5 1/2 behind at the 1/2 pole to 2 ahead at the finish. The previous 2 races were turf routes which would have a very different energy profile which should have given the runners a bit more ummph left against the wind in their stretch run. These things make the time for the final half understandable. DRF gave a 109 Beyer for the race. Perhaps a little high, but not outside reason.

Frankly I didn't expect Commentator to do that well (though I wasn't daring enough not to use him on secondary tickets) and think he did run a pretty good race.

Al,

I am glad you brought this up. The 3rd race on the card was a NW1x SB
allowance race who's raw final time was only 3/5s slower. I doubt the Beyer awarded to that race was a 104 which is why I broke the MET Mile out.

John

[Fastracehorse]

1st off, samyn got a $146 winner on the green on Sun.. Hope U liked it.

2nd off, horses like Commentator beat themselves, and it is difficult for these speed types to string so many amazing efforts together, he already had 2 this year, one was a track record at GP in the winter.

I'm not pretending I'm smart here - I used Comm on all my tickets, but like Dream Rush in the Vagrancy on Sun, Comm imploded late.

It's like a bounce, horses only have so much in them to give. Ironically, guys like Zito like to train them to run from behind or just off, to try and save a longer season.

fffastt

[classhandicapper]

The Met is probably another race where numeric measurements of the performances have to be taken with a grain of salt. The 1M ALW race earlier in the card occurred several hours before the Met. The track could easily have changed speeds a bit during that time, but I don't think that's certain. Wind speed and direction also could have impacted the races to a different degree, but can we be certain if so and by how much? (I haven't analyzed the card yet)

Even though the final times were only a 3/5ths apart, the 6F pace call (and the 4F call to a lesser extent) were sharply different. We also know because of both visual evidence and by looking at the PPs of the horses involved that the pace of the Met was hot.

It is difficult to seperate track speed issues, wind issues, etc... from the impact of pace on final time when changes in track speed and wind can impact fractions differently than final times. If you are really sharp with figures and understand trips well, it can be estimated, but it's far from science.

I'm not saying the effort isn't worth it.

I'm just pointing out that after almost every big race there's a discussion about the impact of pace and track speed changes on the final time of the race because it's not clear whether one, the other, or both were at work to explain a final time that looks a little fast or slow based on the other races that day. We notice it in these big races because they get a lot of attention, but it happens constantly at tracks every day all across America.

That is why some of us that are big users of numbers (like myself) also like to look at qualitative measurements of races and the individual trips within those races. Good figures are a great tool, but they often simply aren't accurate enough to seperate horses that are actually far apart on qualitative measurements. Old style class handicapping was discredited by improved figure making, but improved class handicapping is a source of more complete understanding and value.

[bobphilo]

The final time was woeful. You would think such a solid early pace would allow for a closer to run a much better final time. What happened in this race?

And I agree with TLG. Commentator ran a helluva race.

Like Seattle Slew in the JC Gold Cup, Commentator may have run his best race in defeat. When you consider that the slowish final time got a 109 Beyer, his 44.52 and 1:09.61 splits are even more impressive. Plus he was hounded by First Defence all race, who actually passed him at one point and he fought back and disposed of that rival.

I'm not really disappointed by Divine Park's final time either. The early pace was so hot that even off the pace DP still ran splits of 45.35 and 1:09.91. You can't run fast early and late. The hot pace helped his finish position but actually hurt his final time. That's probably why he dropped a bit off the 111 Beyer he earned in the Westchester and explains the 1:36.91 final time of the Met.

I think we saw 2 excellent performances with Commentator's the bravest, and probably best, of the 2.

Bob

[ryesteve]

When you consider that the slowish final time got a 109 Slightly off-topic question: where do you guys find the figs assigned to recently-run races?

[OTM Al]

If its high enough it is shown here

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

Wednesday DRF always prints the figs for all the previous week's stakes winners as well

[bobphilo]

The Met is probably another race where numeric measurements of the performances have to be taken with a grain of salt. The 1M ALW race earlier in the card occurred several hours before the Met. The track could easily have changed speeds a bit during that time, but I don't think that's certain. Wind speed and direction also could have impacted the races to a different degree, but can we be certain if so and by how much? (I haven't analyzed the card yet)

Even though the final times were only a 3/5ths apart, the 6F pace call (and the 4F call to a lesser extent) were sharply different. We also know because of both visual evidence and by looking at the PPs of the horses involved that the pace of the Met was hot.

It is difficult to seperate track speed issues, wind issues, etc... from the impact of pace on final time when changes in track speed and wind can impact fractions differently than final times. If you are really sharp with figures and understand trips well, it can be estimated, but it's far from science.

I'm not saying the effort isn't worth it.

I'm just pointing out that after almost every big race there's a discussion about the impact of pace and track speed changes on the final time of the race because it's not clear whether one, the other, or both were at work to explain a final time that looks a little fast or slow based on the other races that day. We notice it in these big races because they get a lot of attention, but it happens constantly at tracks every day all across America.

That is why some of us that are big users of numbers (like myself) also like to look at qualitative measurements of races and the individual trips within those races. Good figures are a great tool, but they often simply aren't accurate enough to seperate horses that are actually far apart on qualitative measurements. Old style class handicapping was discredited by improved figure making, but improved class handicapping is a source of more complete understanding and value.

Class,

Absolutely, we have to go beyond just looking at the times or even speed figures in isolation in evaluating a horse’s performance. The allowance race on the same day was run in 1:37.43 compared to The Met Mile's final time of 1:36.91 – a difference of only .52 seconds. However, Manteca (the allowance race winner) got to run his race in the relatively leisurely splits of 46.32 and 1:11.37 on his way to dominating his rivals by 5 lengths compared to Divine Park's more tiring splits of 45.35 and 1:09.91. Note these are the horses' splits, not the leader's.


I agree with you that we have to take a comprehensive approach in examining the conditions in which the figures were earned and the races were run, such as pace, possible change in track speed, wind change, etc. Doing so puts things in proper perspective both for the Met but in relation to the other races run that day.


Bob

[bobphilo]

Slightly off-topic question: where do you guys find the figs assigned to recently-run races?

In his blog at the DRF site on Monday. Dan Illman lists all the winning Beyers for the weekend's stakes. The archive lists all previous weeks.

The Leaderboard under Tools, lists all the best Beyers for the year in each division.

Bob

[classhandicapper]

I still haven't had a chance to look at the card, but I suspect Beyer broke out the Met from the rest of the day in order to arrive at that 109 figure.

For discussion purposes, let's assume he did.

This highlights the problem I am talking about further.

You have to ask yourself "to what extent did he build the impact of pace instead of a change in track speed into the final time he assigned for the race".

Even if he built it in to only a slight degree, then anyone that adjusts the final time figure for the fast pace will be double counting the effect. Even worse, since not all the horses were impacted by the pace equally, then some horses are being given figures that overestimate their actual performance that day.

This is a common problem even among supposedly expert figure makers that are not sensitive to the pace issue when making their track variants. If you start with the assumption that the track changed speeds, you will often build the impact of pace into the final time figure via the track variant. That's not good because it gives equal credit to each horse in the race for the impact of the pace even though they are often impacted much differently because they have different abilities and raced in different positions relative to the leaders.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

I'm using the figure of common sense.......race stunk

[bobphilo]

Beyer is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. If he gives the allowance winner a figure close to Divine Park, as the raw times with no consideration of pace would imply, people would scream that he gives the same figures to allowance horses as Gr 1 stakes winners.

If he gives a much lower figure to the allowance horse with a similar final time to the Met winner he will be accused of being inconsistent.


I must say I’m surprised at people trashing a race because the horses came home slow when they set early fractions of around 44 and 1:09, on a board called PACE Advantage. Considering the pace, both Divine Park and Commentator ran to their figures and/or top races.


Bob

[classhandicapper]

Beyer is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.
Bob

Exactly.

The problem for him (and other figure makers) is the lack of sophistication of many of their customers. The problem for sophisticated customers is that they may not know how he handled the race and could double count the impact of pace. I'm sure Beyer would be more than willing to discuss the issue. Others prefer to keep their customers in the dark by denyng that a pace issue even exists.

[PaceAdvantage]

I must say I’m surprised at people trashing a race because the horses came home slow when they set early fractions of around 44 and 1:09, on a board called PACE Advantage. Considering the pace, both Divine Park and Commentator ran to their figures and/or top races.Is it not a rule of thumb that fast final times are generally run after fast early paces? When was the last time you saw slow early fractions generate a fast final time on dirt?

[bobphilo]

Is it not a rule of thumb that fast final times are generally run after fast early paces? When was the last time you saw slow early fractions generate a fast final time on dirt?

PA, in general the rule of thumb holds since the fractions of most races generally match the final times, but it also depends on just how fast the fractions are. Take the 2005 Derby for instance. The pace was so fast that only a stone closer like Giacomo was not hurt by it and he won in slow time. Even the stalkers/closers, who usually benefit from a quick pace, were affected. In races like that, horses racing forwardly have to be super-horses to run fast times. Either that, or there must be a very good deep closer in the field.

In the Met Mile, Divine Park’s fractions were of 45.35 and 1:09.91. Considering the slow final time earned a 109 Beyer, the variant must have been large, making these early fractions even tougher - this was not a typical race. Though not near the lead, DP’s fractions were still faster than the front-runner in a typical (rule of thumb race). To earn such a high Beyer after running such an uneven race, with the early fractions so quick in relation to the final time, is remarkable.

As for you second question, yes, if the early fractions are ridiculously slow, like this year’s Risen Star, it’s equinely impossible for the horses to finish fast enough to post a fast final time. However I’ve seen good frontrunners set slow (but not absurdly slow) early fractions and have enough left to both finish quickly and run fast final times. It makes sense as well.

Bob

[asH]

I dont get it, the wind effects the dirt runners but not the turf runners?



Occam’s Razor:

Earlier races suggest a dead track. Commentator and first Defiance ran a heck of a 4 furlongs, enough that their blast radius killed anyone within the kill zone (5 lengths); note horses finishing up came (slowly) from behind the blast zone (which speaks to Commentators & first Defiance's 4f's) after 4 furlongs.. many of the horses were simply not good under these race conditions.



to many speculative factors over-complicate a simpler explanation



proof will be in the next race of these, it appeared to me connections wanted it softer earlier for Commentator.. Where next? Has never finished strong against tougher at sprint distances

[classhandicapper]

Is it not a rule of thumb that fast final times are generally run after fast early paces? When was the last time you saw slow early fractions generate a fast final time on dirt?

IMHO.....

The faster the pace the faster the final time until you reach the critical breaking point where it starts working in the opposite direction because TOO MUCH energy is being used up early. Once it starts working in the opposite direction like that the relationship almost appears to be linear for awhile (running 1/5 too fast to the pace call will cause the horse to run a final time 1/5 slower) though it probably isn't. At a certain point though that relationship breaks down and the horses will totally collapse.

The most important point is that most races are run with paces that are right around that critical breaking point (give or take a little to either side). So going just a "tad slower" early can actually help some front runners run a little faster than they would have under more neutral/average/PAR fractions. Also, because they are typically right around breaking point, running faster than average/PAR will typically hurt them.

Naturally, most closers want a faster than "average pace" because the tendency is for them to get dragged into running a more efficient set of fractions than they do when the pace is more average. They also probably benefit to some degree from drafting. However, if it is too fast, the second flight can also be hurt by being dragged into running too fast early.

The most complicating aspect of this is that the fractional and final time relationships change from track to track, day to day, distance to distance, and surface to surface (bias and other surface issues). The relationships are also different for different horses inside the same race because they have different levels of ability.

Believe me. I've explored this for decades. It's very difficult to formulize it all when you are working with an estimate of the pace, estimate of the final time, and estimate of the relationship between the two.

IMO CJ does an incredible job of producing a comprehensive figure. :ThmbUp:

He and I came to a lot of the same conclusions independently before we met here and on the TG board and have discussed this many times.

[asH]

logic always dictates and the laws of physics are in agreement in all parts of the universe.

[Niko]

IMHO.....

The faster the pace the faster the final time until you reach the critical breaking point where it starts working in the opposite direction because TOO MUCH energy is being used up early. Once it starts working in the opposite direction like that the relationship almost appears to be linear for awhile (running 1/5 too fast to the pace call will cause the horse to run a final time 1/5 slower) though it probably isn't. At a certain point though that relationship breaks down and the horses will totally collapse.

The most important point is that most races are run with paces that are right around that critical breaking point (give or take a little to either side). So going just a "tad slower" early can actually help some front runners run a little faster than they would have under more neutral/average/PAR fractions. Also, because they are typically right around breaking point, running faster than average/PAR will typically hurt them.

Naturally, most closers want a faster than "average pace" because the tendency is for them to get dragged into running a more efficient set of fractions than they do when the pace is more average. They also probably benefit to some degree from drafting. However, if it is too fast, the second flight can also be hurt by being dragged into running too fast early.

The most complicating aspect of this is that the fractional and final time relationships change from track to track, day to day, distance to distance, and surface to surface (bias and other surface issues). The relationships are also different for different horses inside the same race because they have different levels of ability.

Believe me. I've explored this for decades. It's very difficult to formulize it all when you are working with an estimate of the pace, estimate of the final time, and estimate of the relationship between the two.

IMO CJ does an incredible job of producing a comprehensive figure. :ThmbUp:

He and I came to a lot of the same conclusions independently before we met here and on the TG board and have discussed this many times.

Nice synopsis! Sometimes it's hard to pick which one won't get sucked into the fast pace and will have something left...where is that crystal ball when you need it.

[cj]

1) Beyer (Hopkins actually) clearly broke the race out.
2) He should not have in my opinion.

[john del riccio]

1) Beyer (Hopkins actually) clearly broke the race out.
2) He should not have in my opinion.

CJ,

Why, in your opinion, shouldn't he have ?

John

[cj]

I have raw figures for the race as follows, Beyer scale:

Pace (Leader) 119
Pace (Winner) 108
Speed 94

Adjusted for the variants I made, the race gets a 121 pace figure (110 for the winner) and a 103 speed figure. If I broke the race out to the same extent Beyer did, the race would get a 128 pace and a 110 speed figure.

So, the question for me is do the figures with the variant used for all the other races make more sense, or do the 128-110 make more sense.

Divine Park ran very well in his last two in very different pace scenarios. Commentator has also run very well. Here are there last two on my numbers:

Divine Park
Bel 04/30/08 8.0 100 107 96 107 106*
Aqui 03/28/08 8.3 108 97 108 97 105*

Commentator
GP 03/08/08 7.0 115 104 115 104 109*
GP 01/17/08 8.0 106 118 106 118 114*

The figures are race pace, race speed, horse pace, and horse speed, then an overall rating combining pace, speed and a few other small factors, but mainly pace and speed.

If I use the original variant, Divine Park has a 110-103 and an overall of around 106 or 107. If I use the latter, he gets a 119-109 and an overall of around 113.

With Commentator, the original gives a 121-99 and about a 110 overall. The latter, 128-105 and around 117 overall.

I chose the former. I don't think that Divine Park improved that much over two very good efforts, and I certainly don't think Commentator, a horse with a history of not handling pressure well, suddenly shook off a quality challenge and ran back to his best 4 year old efforts at the age of 7. Of course I could be wrong, but I am very confident I have this race right.

[classhandicapper]

I have raw figures for the race as follows, Beyer scale:

Pace (Leader) 119
Pace (Winner) 108
Speed 94

Adjusted for the variants I made, the race gets a 121 pace figure (110 for the winner) and a 103 speed figure. If I broke the race out to the same extent Beyer did, the race would get a 128 pace and a 110 speed figure.

So, the question for me is do the figures with the variant used for all the other races make more sense, or do the 128-110 make more sense.

Divine Park ran very well in his last two in very different pace scenarios. Commentator has also run very well. Here are there last two on my numbers:

Divine Park
Bel 04/30/08 8.0 100 107 96 107 106*
Aqui 03/28/08 8.3 108 97 108 97 105*

Commentator
GP 03/08/08 7.0 115 104 115 104 109*
GP 01/17/08 8.0 106 118 106 118 114*

The figures are race pace, race speed, horse pace, and horse speed, then an overall rating combining pace, speed and a few other small factors, but mainly pace and speed.

If I use the original variant, Divine Park has a 110-103 and an overall of around 106 or 107. If I use the latter, he gets a 119-109 and an overall of around 113.

With Commentator, the original gives a 121-99 and about a 110 overall. The latter, 128-105 and around 117 overall.

I chose the former. I don't think that Divine Park improved that much over two very good efforts, and I certainly don't think Commentator, a horse with a history of not handling pressure well, suddenly shook off a quality challenge and ran back to his best 4 year old efforts at the age of 7. Of course I could be wrong, but I am very confident I have this race right.

This should be bookmarked by all numbers oriented handicappers. :ThmbUp:

[john del riccio]

I have raw figures for the race as follows, Beyer scale:

Pace (Leader) 119
Pace (Winner) 108
Speed 94

Adjusted for the variants I made, the race gets a 121 pace figure (110 for the winner) and a 103 speed figure. If I broke the race out to the same extent Beyer did, the race would get a 128 pace and a 110 speed figure.

So, the question for me is do the figures with the variant used for all the other races make more sense, or do the 128-110 make more sense.

Divine Park ran very well in his last two in very different pace scenarios. Commentator has also run very well. Here are there last two on my numbers:

Divine Park
Bel 04/30/08 8.0 100 107 96 107 106*
Aqui 03/28/08 8.3 108 97 108 97 105*

Commentator
GP 03/08/08 7.0 115 104 115 104 109*
GP 01/17/08 8.0 106 118 106 118 114*

The figures are race pace, race speed, horse pace, and horse speed, then an overall rating combining pace, speed and a few other small factors, but mainly pace and speed.

If I use the original variant, Divine Park has a 110-103 and an overall of around 106 or 107. If I use the latter, he gets a 119-109 and an overall of around 113.

With Commentator, the original gives a 121-99 and about a 110 overall. The latter, 128-105 and around 117 overall.

I chose the former. I don't think that Divine Park improved that much over two very good efforts, and I certainly don't think Commentator, a horse with a history of not handling pressure well, suddenly shook off a quality challenge and ran back to his best 4 year old efforts at the age of 7. Of course I could be wrong, but I am very confident I have this race right.

CJ,

I didn't have Divine Park improving in the Met Mile either, He earned an 83 variant fig in both his last two races (~ 112 on your/beyer scale) and earned an 82 in this race. The fact that there were many turf races between the previous dirt race (a very real scenario for being careful when tying races together).

What did you award the previous dirt race run at 1 mile.

I had it as

R3 72 pace 75 final
R10 82 pace 82 final

John

[proximity]

CJ,

I didn't have Divine Park improving in the Met Mile either, He earned an 83 variant fig in both his last two races (~ 112 on your/beyer scale) and earned an 82 in this race.

john,

i think cj is trying to say that he felt the pace of the race was so fast that, despite coming from out of it, divine park also "overran" the pace and thus (on his system) giving out normal final figures for these horses would lead to larger than expected "performance ratings" for the top finishers??

given the track, conditions, type of race, time between races.... i was quite confortable with your decision. when it doubt, split it out!!

anyhow, different strokes, but good discussion.

[john del riccio]

john,

i think cj is trying to say that he felt the pace of the race was so fast that, despite coming from out of it, divine park also "overran" the pace and thus (on his system) giving out normal final figures for these horses would lead to larger than expected "performance ratings" for the top finishers??

given the track, conditions, type of race, time between races.... i was quite confortable with your decision. when it doubt, split it out!!

anyhow, different strokes, but good discussion.

Proximity,

I'm with you, I thought that was CJ's point. The one thing that I have learned about this buisiness of making figures is that some days all the pegs fit into the holes very easily and other days its a square hole & a round peg.
The proof is in the pudding when the horses run back under SIMILIAR
CONDITIONS (I cannot stress that enough). If DP runs back in a 1 1/8 race around two turns, not much can be said either way. I always say, give them two shots under similiar conditions before concluding that an error in judgement may have been made.

Good discussions indeed.

John

[proximity]

If I use the original variant, Divine Park has a 110-103 and an overall of around 106 or 107. If I use the latter, he gets a 119-109 and an overall of around 113.

With Commentator, the original gives a 121-99 and about a 110 overall. The latter, 128-105 and around 117 overall.



while i suspect that my method for calculating overall race performance ratings is quite crude compared to yours, fwiw, for the race (in terms of jdr's henry kuck figures,which i use in daily play) i have divine park with an 82 and commentator with an 84. (in the end, not much different from you) if still had the pps for the race i could list both horses "pr" lines going in, but i don't.