Monday 5/26 A few Holiday Picks

[Ray2000]

Sundays results
Chester R6........254 Winner $3.40 (10/1 ML:D )
Chester R9........547 no hit

Monday's picks, 3 horse boxes, ML pick1 >7

Chester R3…436 Quantum King Crab 8/1 Caviar On The Menu 10/1 Forever Bachelor 7/2
The colt(8) has a tough job today, the 3 has been racing tougher and
the 4 has good on board numbers, both could produce a price, tough choice.. boxem

Hazel Park R12…314 Bumblebsbullwinkle 10/1 Ss Royalty 3/1 Head Cheerleader 4/1
The 3 picks up a good driver today after first start in 80 days last week, should improve

Western Fair R4…523 Alamode 10/1 Maidofsteel De Vie 5/2 Miss Angie 8/1
Good try while pacing on the outside in last, best ave TrackMaster class and speed

Western Fair R6…812 Master Ofthe Class 8/1 Native Roots 4/1 Thatll Be Hot 15/1
On the improve, the 8 trails at LON and the 1 is not a roadblock

Western Fair R12…215 Fa Mulan 10/1 Spirit Of Canada 5/2 Quick Sight 8/1
I'm picking the only 3 yr old filly trotter in the race? Gotta take a break.

Good Luck All
Back next weekend

[Ray2000]

Chester R3.........432 Winner $16.80 Exacta $81.60
Hazel Park R12....314 Winner $3.20 (10/1 ML:D ) Exacta $16.40 Trifecta $61.20
Western Fair R4....285 no hit
Western Fair R6....573 no hit
Western Fair R12..124 (Scratch 5) Exacta.. $3.10 that's no typo:eek:

Win bets $10 in, $20 back
Box bets
If Exactas $52 in, $101 back
If Trifectas $48 in, $61 back

[whyhorseofcourse]

Nice cold tri at hazel.

[Ray2000]

Thanks, Whyhorseofcourse

Your reply gives me a chance to throw out a general question.


That race, much like Chester Sunday R6, had the eventual winner way, way overbet, and I've never been able to see why.

I thought Bumblebsbullwinkle would go off around 2/1 (and not be a good bet), based on driver change.

But the final win pool dollar distribution was:

Pool $3,555 horse 355 334 1,752 346 258 123 118 165 104

If you "take away" 800$ from the 3 and spread it around the others entries in the same proportions
then the 3 goes off 2/1.

Question: Where did that 800$ come from? Was it crowd psychology of jumping on board? Was it a few big barn bets?. Was it heavy hitting handicappers from around the net? The money came in early then relaxed, then hit heavy again as the ADW poured in at the last minute.

This may be a bad example because of the mediocre pool $3500, but the same reasoning should also apply to these 'runaway' odds on the favorite at big tracks. If one could spot these situations, it would save a lot of bad bets.