Exotic Wagering

[Niko]

Here are 2 examples of the types or races I'm trying to get better at and when to pull the trigger on the 40-1's. It happens enough that I have to deal with it. I bet and key enough long shots but I can't see them all ....

Hollywood Race 7 5-24.

Thrust. I know 2 of the front runners towards the end broke down so maybe this horse doesn't win, but still might have. Last 2 races were terrible. I see 2 reasons to bet or include the horse but it still takes a big leap of faith and I don't think the 2 reasons alone would be profitable over time but I could be wrong.

I don't find punching all to be profitable long-term but there was an article in horseplayer magazine (I forgot the brothers who are tournament players also) that key a horse in first and second and hit all in the other first/second slot for supers and do quite well. Obviously you'd need the bankroll to go with this strategy.

Anyone else found this stategy profitable in any horizontal or vertical bets?-I haven't Anyone key Thrust in the race and willing to share why (or if not) just that you did for more than A $10 win bet or keyed in supers/verticals. Rounding off badly there were about 30 $1 pick 3 tickets using this horse in the first leg and 20 late P4 tickets. So the horse was hit by a few. Did someone know something that was done to the horse (owner-friends of trainer) and was able to take advantage of it? Numbers players with money? Succesful Handicappers on this board?

Same question for Haltation in the 5th at Belmont on 5-24. There were about 70 $1 tickets using him in the last leg of the p4 and the 70-1, 4-1, 13-1 p3 for races 5-7 was hit by about 13.

Congrats to those handicappers that hit. If it was insiders, well you got me with the hidden wildcard again.

There is no disclosure in racing so I'm hoping people will give me some insight to these situations.

[beenacoach]

I am no handicapper but I do like to think I am a fairly sharp horseman. From what I recall, Thrust had no shot at all of winning that race without the misshap with the two front runners...only one of which broke down not both.

[Pace Cap'n]

While I didn't bet Halation, I briefly considered him on the strength of the 6f workout on May 8, and the change to a jock who is capable of winning on the grass. Had a woulda-coulda moment when he won.

[Capper Al]

I was surprised to find that by place betting my selected longshots, horses paying $10.00 or more to win, would pay about the same as to win over the longrun. This flies in the face of conventional thinking. (Challenging the premises has been my motto.)

If you know that statistically the top two favorites win about 50% of the time, and the top favorite wins or places about 50% of the time by itself ,then you have the makings for a good exacta by keying your longshot with the two favorites. Adding a place ticket with the exacta, makes a good longshot strategy. But these opportunities shouldn't come up every race, or you are fooling yourself. Most of the time your capping should select one of the top two favorites.

[TrifectaMike]

I was surprised to find that by place betting my selected longshots, horses paying $10.00 or more to win, would pay about the same as to win over the longrun. This flies in the face of conventional thinking. (Challenging the premises has been my motto.)

If you know that statistically the top two favorites win about 50% of the time, and the top favorite wins or places about 50% of the time by itself ,then you have the makings for a good exacta by keying your longshot with the two favorites. Adding a place ticket with the exacta, makes a good longshot strategy. But these opportunities shouldn't come up every race, or you are fooling yourself. Most of the time your capping should select one of the top two favorites.

I agree with your approach. However, a key/box exacta is probably a better way to bet it.

Mike

[Capper Al]

I agree with your approach. However, a key/box exacta is probably a better way to bet it.

Mike
I agree. That's what I meant. Thanks.

[jotb]

While I didn't bet Halation, I briefly considered him on the strength of the 6f workout on May 8, and the change to a jock who is capable of winning on the grass. Had a woulda-coulda moment when he won.

David Prine was the named trainer for Halation. I guess the regular trainer had a license problem. The owner was the same. Anyway that 6F work on May 8th was slow. There was only one other 6f work that morning and that horse was 3 seconds faster than Halation. Halation never ran on the turf before and the dam of Halation dropped several foals over the years but none had ever win on the turf. I can't find one reason why any smart handicapper would even consider this horse as a contender the other day. I was checking the contest results from Brisnet and noticed many within the top 50 chose this horse. I wonder how many of those contest players that hit this horse also played this horse with real money. By the way, if Prine was really the trainer of Halation congrats to him on his first victory. He is winning at a 100% clip (1 race 1 win).

Joe

[Grits]

David Prine's story has been up at NYRA for several days. He IS the trainer of Halation, and his story is quite amazing.

I'm thrilled for the man, myself.

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/May242008.shtml (http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/May242008.shtml)

David Prine was the named trainer for Halation. I guess the regular trainer had a license problem. The owner was the same. Anyway that 6F work on May 8th was slow. There was only one other 6f work that morning and that horse was 3 seconds faster than Halation. Halation never ran on the turf before and the dam of Halation dropped several foals over the years but none had ever win on the turf. I can't find one reason why any smart handicapper would even consider this horse as a contender the other day. I was checking the contest results from Brisnet and noticed many within the top 50 chose this horse. I wonder how many of those contest players that hit this horse also played this horse with real money. By the way, if Prine was really the trainer of Halation congrats to him on his first victory. He is winning at a 100% clip (1 race 1 win).

Joe

[Niko]

David Prine was the named trainer for Halation. I guess the regular trainer had a license problem. The owner was the same. Anyway that 6F work on May 8th was slow. There was only one other 6f work that morning and that horse was 3 seconds faster than Halation. Halation never ran on the turf before and the dam of Halation dropped several foals over the years but none had ever win on the turf. I can't find one reason why any smart handicapper would even consider this horse as a contender the other day. I was checking the contest results from Brisnet and noticed many within the top 50 chose this horse. I wonder how many of those contest players that hit this horse also played this horse with real money. By the way, if Prine was really the trainer of Halation congrats to him on his first victory. He is winning at a 100% clip (1 race 1 win).

Joe

First of all, great story on the David Prine....wonderful to hear he overcame so much and I hope he continues to do well.

Thanks for the analysis Joel--I'm curious about the betting side too but I'll never find out...that's horse racing. A few people had a nice leap of faith though.

[BCOURTNEY]

[QUOTE=Niko]
Anyone else found this stategy profitable in any horizontal or vertical bets?-I haven't Anyone key Thrust in the race and willing to share why (or if not) just that you did for more than A $10 win bet or keyed in supers/verticals. Rounding off badly there were about 30 $1 pick 3 tickets using this horse in the first leg and 20 late P4 tickets. So the horse was hit by a few. Did someone know something that was done to the horse (owner-friends of trainer) and was able to take advantage of it? Numbers players with money? Succesful Handicappers on this board?
QUOTE]

That was a happy day at Hollywood. Strength in the 4th and Thrust in the 7th. I enclosed a copy of my value pick sheet that I run every day on my computer. If you would like to discuss details about my computer program I use to produce these picks feel free to message. I do not use pencil and paper however. I find the objectiveness of the computer to produce lots of small profits with many small value bets preferable.