Tom
05-23-2008, 02:06 PM
SLow day today, so playing with a BRIS PDF and a pencil, here is the 7th tomorrow at Belmont. At the bastard distamnce of 7F that screws me up so many times. Feel free to criticize my reasoning....7 is not my best distance to handicap.
Belmont, Race 8 Saturday
Executive search. 6 0 1 0 at the distance, 44 3 7 8 lifetime, doesn’t look like he likes any distance, but his last race, at 6F he closed well. In his flat mile at Belmont last year, he kind of shows the same style as the last race. I’m putting him in and using his last line as representative of what he should do tomorrow. S 88 – 93 181
Good Card. 0 0 0 0 at the distance. His last race and his 6.5 furlongs at Belmont last year say he might like 7, but his one turn mile race where he went to the front is a concern. Will he do the same at 7? S 90 – 91 181 or S 84 – 98 182
Charging Hero. 2 1 0 1 at the distance, but that was on poly. His mile two back on dirt tells me not to worry. EP 95 – 87 182 (Extrapolated from the mile two back)
Of All Times. 2 0 0 0 at the distance. Almost always on or near the lead, no telling why he is 0 for 2 at 7F, but he raced good longer and shorter, so I ‘m using him. EP 95 – 93 191 (extrapolating his last race at a mile)
Super Shape. As far as distance goes, he is ok. Can’t use a paceline anyway. *Punt*
Monster Drive. 1 0 1 0 at the distance and it was his last race. I’m ok with him at 7. If he runs 85 in this one, he will be 5 back, not his comfort zone. He wants to be within about a length, so I’m adding 10 points to his 85 and taking from his 103 LP. EP 95 – 93 188 He has been able to run both EP and LP number before. The WO gap from 4/15 to 5/11 concerns me, but he did show a good work when he came back.
Exec S 88 93 181
Good S 90 91 181
84 98 182
Char EP 95 87 182
OfAl EP 95 93 191
Mons EP 95 93 188
From this, it looks like no one can catch Of All or Monster, except maybe Good Card.
You need to use his 84 98 line. HE will be about 5 back, and will make up only about 3 of that, unless the two duel and tire. A few here have the ability to go faster than 95 early, and if any one of them does, this could set up for Good Card. He sat 5 back last time against a faster pace than the 95 he might see in here. Of All Times has the speed to clear this field and put the other earlies off their game. Then it is he and Good Card at the end.
Belmont, Race 8 Saturday
Executive search. 6 0 1 0 at the distance, 44 3 7 8 lifetime, doesn’t look like he likes any distance, but his last race, at 6F he closed well. In his flat mile at Belmont last year, he kind of shows the same style as the last race. I’m putting him in and using his last line as representative of what he should do tomorrow. S 88 – 93 181
Good Card. 0 0 0 0 at the distance. His last race and his 6.5 furlongs at Belmont last year say he might like 7, but his one turn mile race where he went to the front is a concern. Will he do the same at 7? S 90 – 91 181 or S 84 – 98 182
Charging Hero. 2 1 0 1 at the distance, but that was on poly. His mile two back on dirt tells me not to worry. EP 95 – 87 182 (Extrapolated from the mile two back)
Of All Times. 2 0 0 0 at the distance. Almost always on or near the lead, no telling why he is 0 for 2 at 7F, but he raced good longer and shorter, so I ‘m using him. EP 95 – 93 191 (extrapolating his last race at a mile)
Super Shape. As far as distance goes, he is ok. Can’t use a paceline anyway. *Punt*
Monster Drive. 1 0 1 0 at the distance and it was his last race. I’m ok with him at 7. If he runs 85 in this one, he will be 5 back, not his comfort zone. He wants to be within about a length, so I’m adding 10 points to his 85 and taking from his 103 LP. EP 95 – 93 188 He has been able to run both EP and LP number before. The WO gap from 4/15 to 5/11 concerns me, but he did show a good work when he came back.
Exec S 88 93 181
Good S 90 91 181
84 98 182
Char EP 95 87 182
OfAl EP 95 93 191
Mons EP 95 93 188
From this, it looks like no one can catch Of All or Monster, except maybe Good Card.
You need to use his 84 98 line. HE will be about 5 back, and will make up only about 3 of that, unless the two duel and tire. A few here have the ability to go faster than 95 early, and if any one of them does, this could set up for Good Card. He sat 5 back last time against a faster pace than the 95 he might see in here. Of All Times has the speed to clear this field and put the other earlies off their game. Then it is he and Good Card at the end.