Harness Handicapping Factors Which Priority???

[Sinner369]

Guys (Botster, Ray2000, Freddyblu22, etc.....) you seem to be veteran harness handicappers.......I like to ask which harness factors are most revelant when you open up a program to handicap a card?

Myself?.......I consider Form a must first, then track bias, racing style, driver then post position!

How about you guys????????.................


Sinner:cool:

[Ray2000]

Sinner369


You must have missed MiJan's post in Apr,
lot of good reponses

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45858

[Sinner369]

Sorry Guys........I did miss it!!!!

Thanks Ray!


Sinner

[LottaKash]

I like re-hashing some of the Major Handicapping factors, that go into making a final selection for play, as it serves to keep you continually focused on the race on hand........

My personal way of going, currently, is something like this.....When I start out, I will look 1st, at the horses latest running lines, trying to determine who is in Excellent shape, Very good shape, or moderate and poor shape, at the same time, I will be looking for class changes, trainer changes, and driver changes.....these all go together at the same time for me......

Then 2d, I will look at the money box scores, to see what Back Class a horse may have, as I like to key on this for further investigation later, also, at this time I will look for lightly raced horses that I think has potential for much better and he is just starting to come around, also, I like to identify and note horses that just love to win...It is these three money-box type of horses that concentrate most on, in my further assessment of the race.....

.3d...Then I go to my personal methodology for using my Pace/Speed Ratings....This is the KEY ingredient, for me......Lately I have come up with new Numbers, and Now it is the most focused factor I use, as it makes very clear to me, as to why my horses win & lose.....and, for what it is worth, if you do not completely understand speed and pace, you really have no shot at winning consistently in the long run....many years or wasted cash, tells me so........

It is really these 3-Main Categories that will all be tied together in the final analysis.......There are many Angles that I use as Bonus's, but, they are identified at the same time of looking at FORM/ CURRENT CLASS in the first stage......Often, the Angles will take precedence, if there is no clear cut Class Horse or Pace/Speed horse........

While it is a no brainer, about using Class, Speed and Form and Driver-Trainers in your analysis.....It is a delicate balance on where to put the most emphasis.......

The real no-brainer is a Best Class horse with the best pace/speed numbers, with the best driver/trainer, starting from the best post-position, can you say $2.80 to win ?.....Ideally, this is what you are looking for, but for most everyday races, there is this balance thing, again ........

These days, I put the most emphasis on the Best Pace/Speed.....A formless class horse cannot win without it (mostly)......A good form horse cannot win without it when running against a class horse with mediocre form and an equal or better pace-rating, A Back-class horse with hidden good form and a good or equal to the others pace -rating, is the kind to try and dig up....a lighly raced young up-and coming type with better or equal pace numbers are a great source for a winner.......When no clear Over-Class can be found, a horse with the best speed/pace rating, with good form, usually wins most races......

To better understand pace (for the newbies etc.)......Some conclusions can be made when trying to pick a closer to win........

An unusually slow 1st 1/4 is is very tough for the closers to overcome.....it creates confusion for all participants and can be used as an excuse for a loss.

A very slow 2d -1/4, makes it very tough for closers to overcome......If a closer makes a good run, especially with a fast last-1/4, it could be a reason to bet next week......

A 3d- 1/4 slower than the 2d-1/4 , will usually help a closer a lot, it helps to make his kick effective at the end.......if a closer does well, do not be too impressed...

A 3d- 1/4 faster than the 2d, will be hard to overcome for a closer......If a closer overcomes this and gives a good last-1/4 while closing this week, given good circumstances next week, he will be very tough.....

In a paceless (no front runners) race, closers from the outer positions are really up against it tonite.....

Class horses with a good pace/speed rating, other than dumb luck, are about the only horses to use from outside post positions.....unless a Lone-Front Runner with the best Speed/Pace ratings........

Horses that make no moves in the 1st or 2d --1/4's in their last 4 or 5 races are not in good form.....

A horse making moves in the early part of their races, and has a good & fast last 1/4 ...are the best horses to key on off last their last few races.....they are IN or coming in to good FORM.......

I am always on the alert for a confirmed closer (or at least recently), and in his charted lines, shows no desire to lead in a race, and in his last race, raced on the front-end to at least the 3/4 or stretch call (fin-pos unimportant) is a major tipoff of coming good from....(See Chester Downs 5/19/08 --3d Race (shipper) #5 Forever Bachelor.......nice $12.80)

I always try to find Favorites's that have some of these negatives and try to attack him with a Class horse with Equal or better pace ratings.......or a horse that has shown some promise lately of good or coming Good- Form, with at least an equal or better pace-ratings.....As a Chef, I would say, well "that's the dish".........

G.L......in your handicapping adventures, I love this stuff....

humbly,

[Sinner369]

Maybe I should have said "Can you guys go into more details" about how one handicap harness horses!

I have one factor that no one seems to mention and that is "Track Bias"
isn't that one of the most important factors?

If say a track like Mohawk which favors closers wouldn't one look at the final fraction and final half?

Sinner:confused:

[LottaKash]

Maybe I should have said "Can you guys go into more details" about how one handicap harness horses!

I have one factor that no one seems to mention and that is "Track Bias"
isn't that one of the most important factors?

If say a track like Mohawk which favors closers wouldn't one look at the final fraction and final half?

Sinner:confused:

Hey Sinner, you sure hit on a very important issue, Track Bias.....

In my handicapping, Early speed is always on my mind firstly.....Meaning the ability of a horse to attack for the lead somewhere in the race....Not just early speed to establish good position, but speed, to go with and overcome any pace that may be that may be evident in tonite's race.....When searching for the winner, I do not go looking for a stone-cold closer, as they need a certain pace to be successful in tonite's race...The best Driver's know about track bias and they will race and use their horse to the best of it's inherent speed, abilities, and racing style, and will race him accordingly.....Looking for stone cold closers all the time is a fast lane to the poorhouse, as racing is more about getting a horse into a striking position to close, than a horse's affinity to just be a one-shot-one run type of horse......If you look into a horse's racing record, you just might see that a stone-cold closer usually has a very low amount of wins on his card.....So, as opposed to stone-cold front runner or a stone-cold closer, I am alway looking for a handier type or horse.....A horse who can move forward at the Driver's asking in any part of the race that the driver thinks the horse will be in position to strike when the money is coming up......

So, as a horse's racing bias is certainly an important consideration along with his starting position.....I generally do not consider these aspects, until the first parts of the puzzle are considered.....then I will determine if the best horse has a favorable or negative chance, based on his running style, to be a winner in this race.......

In the past, I have handicapped using Bias first, and I found that I overlooked many winners and lost with horses that I thought would be perfect in his race tonite......Now, I look for the best driver with the best form and pace/ speed, and most of the time, that is enough for me......My winners are up and my losers are down, and maybe that is not the reason why, but, something has to explain it.....

Now there is another Bias that is more important than Track bias-tendencies.....and it is Speed or Closer Bias, on a particular racing nite......some nites, If you don't have a horse who is a front-runner, you will lose all-nite long.....and sometimes the Front End will be stone-cold, and a closer will win most of the races........

On the nites's when the front end is killer, it is much easier to pick a horse that goes to the front and will have a more than usual, chance to win.......So, on those nites, look for horses coming out of those races, that were the deepest and closing the most against the front speed.....especially with a fast last 1/4......

With closers, on a closer-biased nite, it isn'at so simple, as alot of what happens depends on the paricular pace, in a certain race, and finding the horse to be in the best position to take advantage of that failing front end, depends on what position a horse is in coming down the stretch......So, is it is a lot harder, in this scenario, to predict the outcome of the races on a closer nite.......It is a lot harder to find that one closer to be there.....That is why you see so many big-baloon prices on those nites.....On those nites, when the closers are having their way, I look for comeback horses that have been on or near the engine in good swift fractions, as they will be (if there still isn't a closer bias next week) very good plays in their next start or two, and their running lines will look terrible.....Especialy look for a LONE-Frontrunner in the next start, with that terrible looking line, and you may catch a nice priced, best horse, winner....and sometimes a good driver/trainer will use that (closer night) to tune-up their (wake-up) horse...I will usually pay a little more attention to this wake-up horse, espcially if he shows a little improvement in his last race before this one.....

To repeat, I always look for the best pace/speed, class, and form horses first......and let the Top Driver do the thinking and driving and worrying about the bias.......That is how they got to be the best.....

humbly,.

[harcapper]

Sinner,

Good point. Track bias is important. That is something that must be looked at during the card itself as the bias can change daily and the weather is not always a factor. A perfect examle was today at pocono where speed was golden in the slop. I used the bias to catch two nice mutual winners whom both were taking class hikes but figured to get the front. Last week (not sure what day) everything parked and moving first over went right by ther leaders.

Har

[botster]

Sure biases and trips can produce winners, though IMO only are good bets when other factors that take priority are involved.

Current form is undoubtably the big one here and by current form,it could be going back to improvements as far back as a month or more.

Odds are essential here, there are just too many reasons for a horse to lose.Anything under 5-1 is almost always unplayable for me anywhere in the betting scheme.This is my opinion once again...lol,the cappers that continue to come up with short priced horses on any of a regular basis are doing a poor job.

Class means so much here and can boost a "cappers" confidence in putting down the big wager.Big money earners especially from age 4 and up is where this can be seen.

Trainers are just important, or more so, because when you are dealing with top drivers such as Meadowlands, it is a very level playing field.Knowing your trainers is where the playing field varies to a large degree.

[Sinner369]

Hey LottaKash!!!

Can you gave us a bit more detail of your Pace and Speed Number?

I use Bob Pandolfo's Diamond Final number which is the average of his Diamond Pace and Diamond Speed numbers.

Is yours' similiar?


Sinner:cool:

[LottaKash]

Hey Sinner, glad you are interested in learning more about PACE combined with speed......It is key in finding the fastest and fittest of the horses, and when combined with an assessment of current form, it gives you a more accurate picture of the current state of the horse......Pace & Speed ratings are very subjective in nature, as you still have to utilize the most important aspects of handicapping to come to a conclusion....There are no magic bullets, and you cannot use the numbers cold, just as you cannot use a TM-SR's, or a horse's final time, cold......They are just another way to look at a horse's fractional and final times, to give you a better perspective on his current speed status vs. his current form, and His current ability to set or overcome a certain speed and pace in tonite's race......The emphasis is on Current......What it does do, is allow you, at a glance, to zoom in on how fast he is racing now, and getting and using these numbers before and after the race is over, will help tell the story of why he may have won or lost his race....It is just a guide that helps you glue the other pieces together.....You still have to be savvy about the other aspects of the game, in order to win.....

At the present time, they will remain proprietary, as I am still experimenting and learning with each race and each day.....I am still making up some loose rules, and trying to make adjustments for track to track comparisons, and off=tracks, as there is a learning curve to correctly give it the proper impact value in my handicapping.....But, I am getter better and better at it with each new day......Tho, just when I think I have learned it all, some new twist will turn up, and I will have to rethink some of my notions about the proper utilization of these numbers in certain situations and with certain classes of horses.....

The numbers are not a new invention, and they are there right in front of you, and they always have been, and it only takes about 10-seconds to mark down the last 3 or 4 ratings, maybe even less than that.....These numbers, when marked down side by side, are just a way of keeping you organized,and at a glance, will allow you a quick comparison of just how much faster or slower, a horse has been running, of late, and that is all ..... I have been flirting around with and juggling the race fractions for years, and it is only now, this year, that I have hit on the right combo, and I have only recently, been putting them into real-life, real-money scenarios......But, what I am finding, is more and more, after relying on the Trackmaster Speed Ratings as a guide, I am beginning to look at them (tm-sr) less and less, and more and more on these ratings.....My original intent was to free myself from relying solely on the Tm-sr's, and have a quick and convenient and deadly way to home in on a horse's current state-of-speed, especially, when going into a foreign track without the printed Trackmaster program, and having to use only the provided track program......

Essentially, there is nothing revolutionary about using pace and speed in assessing a horse's probable perfomance in tonite's race, but, getting organized was the main issue, for me......There are many software programs for T=breds that provide visual numbers, as well as "Pandy's" Diamond Ratings, giving you visuals.....But myself, being very lazy, I just wanted some quick but VISUAL ratings to utlize when doing my homework, and being the pen and paper type handicapper, I wanted it all right there in front of me, without juggling more than one sheet, and now, I think I may have realized my dream......stay tuned.......

In the future, I will be more than willing to share this with a few select persons,and help you get organized, but for now it is only mine.......And if I were to show you what I am talking about, you would probably laugh and say "That's it ?, is that all there is ?"......

Fwiw, Sinner, I have not used "Pandy's" software much more than in passing, as I find it a bit too clunky for a lazy guy like me.......But, I believe there is mucho-power in those numbers, it's just that they need a little databasing to truly unlock their potential.....I just don't have the time right now to look into it further, as I am having a great time with my own new discoveries with their sheer and utter simplicity.......and, if you are already a decent handicapper, these numbers will not regress you, they will only confirm, what you have already suspected is true......

One more thing, I wanted to get off my chest, as it is still gnawing on me.....this past weekend FreddBlu and Co. held a fun handicapping contest.....You were allowed to pick from two-tracks, in two days, 5-plays and the one with the most and best paying horses would win.......Well, I picked 2-winners in the best of 5........But, the clinker here is, in two of the races, I VIOLATED one of my new made up rules, and went ahead and picked them anyway, and if I had tossed those picks out, as I should have, and gone with my 2-choice's (which would have become the 1st choices), I would've blew the competition away, as those 2 scored big-time.......Still pissed......

btw.....thanks to FreddyBlu and Co. for hosting this event......

And FreddyBlu, if you are reading this, you are one fine horse picker...........

humbly,