Harley D Hanover

[freddyblu22]

Hey Lotta, I tried finding the thread where we specifically talked about this one a few days ago, but I couldn't find it.

I have been off my public selections the last 2 nights, so trust me, this isn't an "I told you so" messsage, but last night was a prime example of how you can't put any stock into bounces (as you say). As you know, he was a top selection of mine last Sunday and just didnt have it. This, coming off that first mile back of his, in which he was up close and where the race went in 49:3.

However last night, Yannick guns him off the gate, then pops pocket at the top of the stretch and goes onto victory. With 1 minute to post he was about 14-1, and I thought that I was obligated to bet him at that price, to see if last week was a bounce or just a fluky race. Turns out he was just fine, and paid $38 in the process.

I guess my point is that if you have a theory or are curious about the performance of a particular horse, it's nearly always worth taking some action on IF you feel that the odds are right. To contradict myself, I should have known better in taking Romantic Star in the 13th. Yes, I thought he was best and was a play back also from the week before, but I should have NEVER accepted 5-2 odds on him from post 10. Oh well, live and learn...

[LottaKash]

Hey Freddy, Nice contest........

You brought up an interesting point about bounces and such, but as for Harley D. Hanover in that 11th Race @M1, he was definitely not a bounce horse, and he was a proper play, as he was only making his 3d start from a mini vacation, after running around with some classy friends, and and in his 1st start ran a new top, BUT, he was able to attempt a "Last to be First", and did quite well in that affair fading gently to a close up fourth, signifying a good state of fitness, and a good play tonite.....I had this horse also, sadly tho, not in the contest......also, in that same race #1 Proper Respect, for me, was a mini-bounce horse as if you notice his 3/4 split and final time, in his last race, were dialectically opposed to his previous numbers.......

Also, I could kick myself in the nuts, for picking #1 Speed Professor in the contest....It was the 9th race that he was in, and he surely bounced off of his previous effort....At 12/1 he was gunning 1st over at the 3/4's and I was counting my "lottakash" when he spit the bit coming down the lane, and faded "mucho Big-time" and almost colllapsed.....It was a GO AGAINST My New Pace-Religion, and I am still laughing and picking at myself, for that one...YEESH.......also, fwiw, pace-speed ratings wise, if you threw out the Speed Professor ( and I should have), in that same race, Michelle's Gemstone #6, would've been the play @ $11.80....This horse sports a a good looking (LTF), "last to be first" line, and it improved it's rating in final time speed, and should not bounce, as his 3/4 time of the previous race was the same, and well withing his capabilities.................;"OHWATAFOOLIAM".........:bang:

Also, I have been noticing a trend lately at the Meadowlands, It seems, without databasing this, that when, a horse gives you three near identical final times in a row, that I believe because of the the hard-competitive, week-after-week racing, it causes something to be taken out of a horse......In the 10 Race at M1 last nite, #5-ProArt- opened up the betting line (DOB) - "Dead on the Board", and you know he raced like it (dead on the board) and finished poorly, consideriing his current Pace/Speed and Form......And here is the clinker, if you reacted to that way of thinking and looked elsewhere for the winner, you could consider, speed/pace-wise, the #1,#2 & the #8 in this race...And of the 3-horses, the only one to sport a Good Form Line was the #3 Camshaft Hanover, as he had won his 2d start back, and last week ran into a wicked 3/4, and is a good excuse for a loss.....Camshaft Won $92.40, from this perspective.....Gettable ???.....:lol:

Also, fwiw, did you notice how "taxing and bouncing" (I like that) the Matt's Scooter series at M1 was, on a lot of the horses that raced in that series, phiysically that is......If you noticed (and there are more), that 3-horses who raced last nite, that were in that series, are just beginning to get back to where they were in their physical state, since that series concluded.....Notice:.......5th race-#2 Mr Nice Guy....11R..Harley D. Hanover...10r..Camshaft Hanover......they are all returning to good racing form, since that series concluded......that series was very taxing and bouncing for a lot of the horses that raced in it.....

This post for me, is all about "The Horse's Muscles", or bouncing if you will.....the more I use my new pace/speed ratings, the more I see how important the Fractons and it's relationship to it's Final Time, and how it affects the horse's current physical state..Thesse numbers are not by a longshot, a magic bullet, but what they do is allow you to put, numerically, 3 or 4 pace-speed ratings side by side for comparison, and after awhile, anyone can begin to see it's, cause's and effect's, when considering his current form as it relates's to his numbers.... I am now better able to see how a horse form cycle may be going, up or down...While It doesn't point out all flaws in a horse's current physical fitness, it does detectss "probable cause", and that by itself is a giant leap forward for me.....I'm learning all the time.........Unfortunately, retro handicapping is the only way to learn......and in retrospect, I missed a couple of nice one's....I will try to be more alert with my new found numbers....:rolleyes:

Man, I love this game......:jump:

humbly,

[mrroyboy]

Good Stuff Lotta

Write some more about your pace form angles. I think you are on the right track so please share it with us. Thanks