Red Boarding : The only 4 Horses who Won their Last Race

[BeatTheChalk]

7 BB 1 MU 3 IC and HB Trifecta 7 1 3
Sigh Good Nite :bang: :jump:

[BeatTheChalk]

To show you how bad I was going ...I could not EVEN get the name of
the horse right :rolleyes: Of course it is Macho Again ..not Macho Uno.
Speaking of that ...I noticed the trouble line for MA. Steadied on the
far turn .. swung five wide. Not that he would have ever won the race :lol:

[CBedo]

I made basically the same structure trifecta bet in the Preakness as in the Derby, keying BB with horses who ran midpack or off the pace. In the Derby, I put BB in all three spots, but in the Preakness I just used him on top. My thought process was that any horse on or near the pace BB would bury, and set up the minor awards for the closers. So in the Preakness I had BB with four other horses for a 12 dollar tri bet. In hindisight not great value. 168 for the 1 dollar tri with two huge prices horses underneath just shows me how much people were spreading underneath.

[cj's dad]

You think that you didn't value at 14/1. You have any idea how many 7 all-all tri bets were made? I know of at least 20, and I'm just one person.

Just trying to put things in perspective for you.

[CBedo]

If someone told you that that your 17-1 longshot was going to win with a 9-1 horse running second, would you think that 336.80 for 2 was good value?

If you assumed that BB would win, then adjusted the next two horse's odds for BB's percentage of the win pool and trake take, that's roughly what the odds were to hit the 2nd 3rd exacta. My point was that as you stated, it showed how much people were trying to get lucky spreading underneath him.

In actuality, if you gave every horse an equal chance to run 2nd or 3rd and assume BB had a 90% chance to win (I never give a horse higher than this), then the probability of hitting the trifecta using four horses as I did under BB is 0.9 * 4/11 * 3/10 which is about 9.8%. So for my $12 dollar ($1 tri) ticket to be fair, I needed roughly 110.22. If I wanted at least a 50% return (my normal minimum threshold when taking a flyer), I needed 171.33. So I guess that since I did give my four a better than random chance (I had Macho Again as the second best in the race), there was some value for me, but like most horseplayers when they win....I was whining about not winning more!