Worst Case Scenario

[Norm]

I propose the following as the worst case scenario for Big Brown's assault on the Triple Crown -

Big Brown, with two crushing victories in the Derby and Preakness, scares-off all competitors . . . except one. The Belmont Stakes becomes a match race between Big Brown and Casino Drive, who is training specifically for that race. Even if Casino Drive isn't as good as his breeding suggests he might be, a match race is a tricky bit of business. It becomes a jockey's race. Speed usually wins a match race. Does BB go to the lead for the entire distance and fight off possible repeated challenges ? Does he stalk and let CD dictate the pace ? Could Kent Desormeaux handle a situation like that ? Opinions ?

Actually, I hope nothing stands in BB's way. Our sport needs a Triple Crown winner, it's been too long.

[PaceAdvantage]

It won't be a match race. They'll hustle a few others to at least get a trifecta going....:lol:

After all, 3rd place in the Belmont = black type plus a decent payday....

[ryesteve]

I thought the worst-case scenario would be if he flips Desormeaux in the post parade, runs off, and they have to scratch him...

[Bubbles]

I shudder to think this, but worst-case is DEFINITELY the horse leads by 20 in the stretch, breaks down, and has to be euthanized on the track a la Eight Belles. PETA then gets their collective panties in a bunch again, and this time they get momentum.

[Grits]

For the life of me......I swear, I do not understand this kind of logic, this kind of pessimistic, negativity.

What is the point in harboring such thoughts? Maybe its me, I just don't get it, I guess.

[boomman]

For the life of me......I swear, I do not understand this kind of logic, this kind of pessimistic, negativity.

What is the point in harboring such thoughts? Maybe its me, I just don't get it, I guess.

Grits: It's not just you........:confused:

Boomer

[FunkyMonkey]

For the life of me......I swear, I do not understand this kind of logic, this kind of pessimistic, negativity.

What is the point in harboring such thoughts? Maybe its me, I just don't get it, I guess.

He's just answering a question posed...can't blame a guy for that can you?

[Marshall Bennett]

1. Gate opens
2. Bolts
3. Wipes out half the field
4. Gets disqualified :mad: :mad:

[Bubbles]

He's just answering a question posed...can't blame a guy for that can you?Pretty much my thoughts. I apologize if it offended anyone, but seriously, that IS the worst thing that could possibly happen to this sport, which probably needs a Triple Crown winner this year.

[Norm]

For the life of me......I swear, I do not understand this kind of logic, this kind of pessimistic, negativity.

What is the point in harboring such thoughts? Maybe its me, I just don't get it, I guess.
Wow ! . . . when I posted this scenario, I was envisioning the most difficult type of race that might develop for Big Brown. I wasn't expecting murder and mayhem as a response ! :D I guess the title of the post sent it in a wrong direction.

[Bubbles]

In that case, probably stablemates of a fairly-high profile closer (Colonel John, Denis of Cork, etc.) being sent out as rabbits to try and cook or trap Big Brown early on. If they force him to run harder early on to keep up, then there's at least a chance (not a big one, but it exists) of a deep closer coming from way back to pick up the pieces.

[Marshall Bennett]

In that case, probably stablemates of a fairly-high profile closer (Colonel John, Denis of Cork, etc.) being sent out as rabbits to try and cook or trap Big Brown early on. If they force him to run harder early on to keep up, then there's at least a chance (not a big one, but it exists) of a deep closer coming from way back to pick up the pieces.
Beleive BB would chase them down , chew them up , and spit them out !! :lol:

[mannyberrios]

Beleive BB would chase them down , chew them up , and spit them out !! :lol:Thats the way it will be.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Worst case would be if Bailey and Day unretire to screw up BB.

[foregoforever]

I thought the worst-case scenario would be if he flips Desormeaux in the post parade, runs off, and they have to scratch him...

The only thing worse would involve a safety pin.

[matthewsiv]

I propose the following as the worst case scenario for Big Brown's assault on the Triple Crown -

Big Brown, with two crushing victories in the Derby and Preakness, scares-off all competitors . . . except one. The Belmont Stakes becomes a match race between Big Brown and Casino Drive, who is training specifically for that race. Even if Casino Drive isn't as good as his breeding suggests he might be, a match race is a tricky bit of business. It becomes a jockey's race. Speed usually wins a match race. Does BB go to the lead for the entire distance and fight off possible repeated challenges ? Does he stalk and let CD dictate the pace ? Could Kent Desormeaux handle a situation like that ? Opinions ?

Actually, I hope nothing stands in BB's way. Our sport needs a Triple Crown winner, it's been too long.

I have been told by a friend of mine who has seen the Japanese horse that might run in The Belmont. That he is a MONSTER who looks great in his coat and is very happy with himself.

But there is not a horse who has already run against him,who can beat BB.

I mischievously add that unsoundness issues can be the only worry.

Because Dutrow is very cagey for a Trainer who has just won 2 legs of the triple Crown.

But if BB is 100% with luck in running he will do the impossible.

[Skanoochies]

He wins the triple crown. Big celebrations. THEN THE TESTS COME BACK.
Disqualified. Dutrow suspended again. :mad:

[Marshall Bennett]

He wins the triple crown. Big celebrations. THEN THE TESTS COME BACK.
Disqualified. Dutrow suspended again. :mad:
... and Dutrow gets hung by his balls on the infield . :p

[rrpic6]

I bet $60K to show on Big Brown, in an attempt to get back the $3,000 I lost this weekend at Charles Town and Pimlico on horses, slots and beer. Desormeaux looks back under his shoulder ala the Preakness in deep stretch, with a 10 length lead, Big Brown sees the long shadow that runs along the stretch of Belmont, shifts and hops, tossing Kent one foot before the finish line.

RR

[PaceAdvantage]

Worst case scenario? He wins by less than 32 lengths....

[Suppositionist]

Worst Case Scenario:

Big Brown wins the Triple Crown then they sell him to Calabrese for fifty million and he promptly runs him in every allowance and overnight he can find to pad his win percentage at AP.

[Kelso]

Worst case scenario? He wins by less than 32 lengths....You takin' action on that, PA?

[sandpit]

In the past, I would have said only the ignorance of Desormeaux could screw this up, but I think even that is a thing of the past...time has made him wiser, if one can say that about a Cajun rider.

Casino Drive is the least of my worries in this race...he beat Mint Lane by 5 +/- lengths...BB might be able to lap that horse at 1 1/2 miles. Denis of Cork and a grinder like Tale of Ekati are more viable alternatives.

[cj's dad]

The only thing worse would involve a safety pin.

Or Ronnie Franklin !!

[PaceAdvantage]

You takin' action on that, PA?Do I look that stupid? (on second thought, don't answer that).

[KingChas]

Worst case scenario? He wins by less than 32 lengths....

...................and is assigned a BSF of 140! :lol:

[joanied]

:lol: some of these scenario's are hilarious...thanks for a good laugh:ThmbUp:

But, let's hope there is no worst case...that all goes according to MY scenario...Brownie wins by 4 and we all can celebrate :jump: until the cows come home:jump: