Preakness Lessons

[bobphilo]

Two observations from Preakness. Macho Again’s figure in his last was great but I threw him out because it was in a 7-½ furlong sprint. In retrospect, which is always 20-20, He never really showed that he was any better at a sprint or route and the figure could have logically been interpreted as an indicator that as an improvement in a young horse that could have transferred over to a route as well. His failure at 1 1/8 was on synthetic after being bumped hard at start.

Gayego was major disappointment since I threw out his Derby failure due to his horrible trip. It probably was an indicator horse was going off form but, unlike Macho Again’s race, could have correctly been read either way.


Bob

[cj]

Gayego was a toss for me because he was a last second decision to run. That almost always spells doom. It didn't help they shipped him back to California, then back East, in two weeks.

[bobphilo]

Gayego was a toss for me because he was a last second decision to run. That almost always spells doom. It didn't help they shipped him back to California, then back East, in two weeks.

Right, CJ. Forgot to mention that. Also forgot to mention that Macho Again was starting from post 1, which, according to Bris has very good impact value. He ended up riding on or near the rail until the stretch where he tipped out for big late gain as relatively fresh horse.

Bob

[highnote]

BB's wins are bittersweet for me.

I like the fact that we may have a TC winner, but disappointed that it may be won by a horse that has been given anabolic steroids on a monthly basis -- even if it is permitted.

I feel the same way about Hank Aaron's home run record being broken in the steroid era.

If BB wins the TC it will be a great moment, but not as great as if he had done it without the assistance of Winstrol.

According to an NTRA statement, steroid use in horses after Jan 1 will not be permitted. Maybe future TC winners will do it drug free?

[jeebus1083]

How many trainers train their horses on a drug like Winstrol and we just don't know about it?

The fact that Dutrow disclosed this puts him in the limelight.

If we choose to believe that it's just Dutrow doping his horses with legal steroids, and the other major stables in North America are not, then I have prime oceanfront property in Arizona that I'll sell you.

[bobphilo]

Dutrow outdid himself in an interview on the Preakness TV coverage. Asked about his Winstrol statement he said. He didn't know what effects it had on the horses, aside from the fact that it put on muscle and made them faster. Yeah sure, and he's the only guy in the country who doesn't know about the deadly side effects of anabolic steroid use.

Bob

[highnote]

How many trainers train their horses on a drug like Winstrol and we just don't know about it?

Probably the majority of trainers use or have used steroids on their horses.

The fact that Dutrow disclosed this puts him in the limelight.

Dickinson said the same thing. I don't know what the big cover-up is. It's legal. The racing regulators and veterinarians are the ones who should shoulder most of the criticism, IMHO

If we choose to believe that it's just Dutrow doping his horses with legal steroids, and the other major stables in North America are not, then I have prime oceanfront property in Arizona that I'll sell you.

It is doubtful that many serious players think Dutrow is the only trainer using steroids.

[JustRalph]

Larry Jones admitted to using Steroids this week in an interview. He said has used them on a few horses that "needed it" for injuries etc. But he said he doesn't use it normally. He also said he has only used steroids on two horses in 20 years........... and none in the last 5 or more years.

sounds reasonable.

[Tex9Down]

I suppose you want to put an asterisk by Big Brown's probable Triple Crown win?

If that drug is not illegal now, does it really matter? That horse is a winner!

[highnote]

I suppose you want to put an asterisk by Big Brown's probable Triple Crown win?

If that drug is not illegal now, does it really matter? That horse is a winner!


We know for certain he is a good horse and a winner. But we will never know how good he could have been without steroids. That is why he will have an asterisk by his name in my record book.

But then... who gives a shit what I think?

[john del riccio]

When I read how steroids are being viewed here, I need to inject a dose of reality. I have owned horses for almost 10 years. Wistrol, Equipoise, yadaydayda...it has been common for so many years that I am somewhat suprised that people are just making note of it. Maybe one day, I will scan a vet bill for a horse and post it here. I think alot of folks would fall out of their chairs.....


John


PS I have a horse right now that "may be" (KNOCK ON WOOD!) a nice one. He had an issue in his neck, the treatment was to inject his neck with you guessed it, a steroid. It promotes healing and recouprative muscle growth.
This is not a BAD thing.....its required therapy. Now, if we have a racing sound horse getting pumped up on roids to turn him into a wack-job, that is a different story. Nothing is as black & white as the tone of these steroid conversations are indictating.

[The Hawk]

Steroids are NOT illegal. They are drugs that are USED illegally, but they serve practical purposes when properly adminstered to horses (and people) when they're needed.

That said, to systematically give steroids to ALL your horses, regardless of need, on the 15th of each month, for instance, is a questionable tactic, at least in my opinion. Though I understand it is NOT illegal.

[boomman]

Although I am pulling for BB to win the Triple Crown, any horse from the Rick Dutrow barn will get extra scrutiny (and deservedly so) when it comes to campaigning for a trainer who has numerous positives and drug infractions. Dutrow made this bed and should be expected to sleep in it. I'm just hoping that racing fans will focus on the "positives" (pardon the pun this time) of horse racing having a Triple Crown winner for the 1st time in 30 years! That would definitely be a good thing, and BB looks like the one to do it........He certainly toyed with that Preakness Field yesterday!

Boomer

[classhandicapper]

Gayego was a toss for me because he was a last second decision to run. That almost always spells doom. It didn't help they shipped him back to California, then back East, in two weeks.

Yea, in hindsight (at least for me) that was an important clue.

In my own handicapping I threw out his last race because of the difficult trip. I didn't use him because I didn't see any value, but I thought he would run better.

[Robert Fischer]

Two observations from Preakness. Macho Again’s figure in his last was great but I threw him out because it was in a 7-½ furlong sprint. In retrospect, which is always 20-20, He never really showed that he was any better at a sprint or route and the figure could have logically been interpreted as an indicator that as an improvement in a young horse that could have transferred over to a route as well. His failure at 1 1/8 was on synthetic after being bumped hard at start.

Gayego was major disappointment since I threw out his Derby failure due to his horrible trip. It probably was an indicator horse was going off form but, unlike Macho Again’s race, could have correctly been read either way.


Bob

You had good logic. The one thing about Macho was that he never really proved that he didn't have grad2 talent. Only Brown,Byrn,Gayego,Macho,& Icabad were in that same boat. Everyone else had proved they didn't have the talent.

Macho was tough because he had several "EXCUSE" races. We can make excuses, hell we can make Good ones! Sooner or later the excuses have to add up. He came into the race in pretty good form. He kind of won that 7.5 sprint by default being one of two actual milers in a field of sprinters (Macho/ironworkspike), however it was a GAME effort and a strong finish.

Gayego's derby was fair to excuse. He broke with the fastest horses of the 3yo class from post 19 and was cut off , checked and rank while midpack. Then he swung wide and chased Big Brown.
Gayego never showed brilliance in his career, but he never proved he didn't belong as a grade2 horse. The blinkers and the situation of ending up on the lead didn't help him navigate a 9.5 furlong distance in Baltimore, that was too far to begin with. He is still a decent horse. If nothing is wrong physically he should run some more decent races.

[Robert Fischer]

How many trainers train their horses on a drug like Winstrol and we just don't know about it?

The fact that Dutrow disclosed this puts him in the limelight.

If we choose to believe that it's just Dutrow doping his horses with legal steroids, and the other major stables in North America are not, then I have prime oceanfront property in Arizona that I'll sell you.

these guys all use steroids.

Its hard to believe that Belles tested negative. I don't believe the test was on the level.

The only ones not using steroids are low-budget barnes.

[Suppositionist]

Regarding steroids, if they are legal and anyone can use them and as Dutrow said; his Vet recommended them, it’s a good bet that Vets are recommending them to a lot of trainers. If this is the case, then a lot of trainers are using them, or could be using them, so effectively, the playing field is level and there would be no reason for an asterisk except to maybe denote the steroid era. Anyone whose been paying attention would know that already.

My Preakness lesson:

I didn’t bet the race but watched the coverage by ESPN and then NBC before and after the race. I found it interesting that Dutrow, in an interview before the race, stated that the game plan was to win the race but that he hoped that they could do so in such a way that they could save a lot of the horses energy for the Belmont. Then after the race Desormeaux said he got off the gas in the stretch once he realized he was far enough ahead and knew he wouldn’t be caught to save the horses energy for the next race. Then in an interview with Mike Smith before the race he talked about how Gayego got bounced around pretty good in the Kentucky Derby and once he realized the horse had no chance he just rode him out as safely as he could to save him for his next start. It struck me that there is a lot of conscious effort being directed toward not using up horses and saving them for the future.

Now I always knew intuitively that a certain amount of this was going on and rightly so. Horses have a limited racing life and there is no point in using that life up in a pointless effort of improving position that won’t mean anything, especially with these high quality horses. But that got me thinking that that same rational would actually hold for horses of any quality. They all have a limited racing life and it would be in any horses, and their connections for that matter, best interest, to not use a horse up in a feudal effort to gain better position or even the more minor shares of the purse (4th and 5th) and save them for the future. But that throws a curve to us handicappers as what may seem like a fairly dull effort may actually be a conscious effort on the part of the jockey to not over exert a horse in favor of the future. Certainly it is at least one plausible explanation for what may seem like an inexplicable dramatic improvement, that we see sometimes.

While it’s a logical thing to do once a jockey is pretty sure they aren’t going to make the money, we can take this a step further and imagine that if any speed horse doesn’t make the early lead, or a stalker doesn’t get the good early position they wanted, that they might opt to save the horse for another day. One wonders how often this type of strategy might be occurring and at what levels? Is it something that happens only with the better horses or is it being done at all levels? It really adds another question and dimension to the handicapping process. Was this horse’s past performance really showing a horse badly beaten or was he just saved for another day. I guess its comparable to a trainers not really trying with a horse to race them into shape. While I accept that that is part of the game, others less familiar with horse racing are surprised to learn these realities are going on and find such practices suspicious, if not unethical. Most are under the impression that everyone is trying as hard as they can.

I suppose I’ll accept the strategy to not use a horse up as part of the game also and just consider myself lucky that I realize it is going on. As I said, I always intuitively knew something like that was going on but Saturday’s Preakness show crystallized and made the notion clearer for me. It’s one of those things that is probably better kept in the front of your mind while handicapping, I think. I’m kind of just getting back into racing after a few years of light involvement due to family issues of the aging parents variety. This was a good reminder of some of the intricacies of the game you lose track of, either from not being that involved in the game, or from letting your mind go in other directions.

S