Preakness payoffs

[highnote]

Big Brown $2.40, $2.60 and $2.40

BB had 60+ percent of the win pool, 40% of place and 35% of show.

I emptied my phone account with a bet on him to place.

Same sort of payoffs occured in the Smarty Jones Belmont.

Look for this to happen again in the Big Brown Belmont -- a place bet may be a better bet than a win bet and show just as good as win.

See you there!

[Imriledup]

The fun is gone on this horse. There will be 27 newspaper articles that scold the public for missing out on the place and show bets. I made a huge show bet. This is a perfect race where breakage, to the penny, is needed. If you are betting thousands to place or show, that horse paying 2.40 or 2.42 is important, it adds up.

[Tex9Down]

So how much did you guys get on your smart bets?

[highnote]

So how much did you guys get on your smart bets?

That's like asking a Texas rancher how many acres he owns. It ain't polite.

But since you asked... I got $2.60 for each $2 place bet and $2.40 for each $2 show bet. Just to clarify, I bet more than $2 on each bet.

[FUGITIVE77]

Big Brown $2.40, $2.60 and $2.40

BB had 60+ percent of the win pool, 40% of place and 35% of show.

I emptied my phone account with a bet on him to place.

Same sort of payoffs occured in the Smarty Jones Belmont.

Look for this to happen again in the Big Brown Belmont -- a place bet may be a better bet than a win bet and show just as good as win.

See you there!

The great Chicago handicapper Scott McMannis use to say "you risk a apple to win an orchard, not a orchard to win an apple". I've alway done well following that advice.

[Overlay]

Will the bridge-jumpers be out in force at the Belmont?

[Marlin]

Good luck on your breakage guys. I hope you bet more than 5K.

[highnote]

The great Chicago handicapper Scott McMannis use to say "you risk a apple to win an orchard, not a orchard to win an apple". I've alway done well following that advice.

I can appreciate that advice. But you also have to look at expectation.

If there was a 95% chance of BB or similar winning or placing and the return is 30 cents on the dollar 95 times out of 100 then it's a good bet.

After 100 one dollar bets you're ahead $23.50.

A 23 1/2 percent return on investment is nothing to sneeze at.

I felt more certain I'd make a profit betting $1000 on place and show than I did on a $2 exacta with BB on top. Picking the second place horse today was much more difficult for me than picking BB to finish first or second.

[pic6vic]

If they were playing at a rebate shop, then it changes the dynamics of the bet

[badcompany]

I can appreciate that advice. But you also have to look at expectation.

If there was a 95% chance of BB or similar winning or placing and the return is 30 cents on the dollar 95 times out of 100 then it's a good bet.

After 100 one dollar bets you're ahead $23.50.

A 23 1/2 percent return on investment is nothing to sneeze at.

I felt more certain I'd make a profit betting $1000 on place and show than I did on a $2 exacta with BB on top. Picking the second place horse today was much more difficult for me than picking BB to finish first or second.

While I agree that it was a +EV bet, in the long run. There really is no long run. It was a one time deal. Also, you didn't know in advance what it would pay.

[highnote]

While I agree that it was a +EV bet, in the long run. There really is no long run. It was a one time deal. Also, you didn't know in advance what it would pay.


I knew with a high degree of confidence the minimum it would pay (the math is simple) and it was still a positive expectation bet.

In the big TC races the pools don't move too much in the last minute. I bet it 20 minutes to post and was still confident my edge would remain.

Secretariat's payoffs were similar. Smarty Jones' were similar. etc etc etc etc. There is a long run. Every year there are thousands of races to look at and every year there are at least 3 TC races that I don't see disappearing in the future. There is definately a long run.

One thing is almost certain, if you only make positive expectation bets you will come out ahead in the long run. :ThmbUp: (in my very humble opinion)

[whyhorseofcourse]

While I agree that it was a +EV bet, in the long run. There really is no long run. It was a one time deal. Also, you didn't know in advance what it would pay.

Looking at the pools you can get a pretty good idea.
I knew big brown would pay over 2.20 to show.

[FUGITIVE77]

I can appreciate that advice. But you also have to look at expectation.

If there was a 95% chance of BB or similar winning or placing and the return is 30 cents on the dollar 95 times out of 100 then it's a good bet.

After 100 one dollar bets you're ahead $23.50.

A 23 1/2 percent return on investment is nothing to sneeze at.

I felt more certain I'd make a profit betting $1000 on place and show than I did on a $2 exacta with BB on top. Picking the second place horse today was much more difficult for me than picking BB to finish first or second.

You said you emptied your phone account on BB. Betting your entire bankroll on one bet is never a good idea.

[Imriledup]

You said you emptied your phone account on BB. Betting your entire bankroll on one bet is never a good idea.

BB to show was one of the greatest overlays we've ever seen from a percentage standpoint. It was a once in a lifetime situation that called for a person to empty his account.

You can always get more money if you lose, but you can't always get this opportunity back.

[highnote]

You said you emptied your phone account on BB. Betting your entire bankroll on one bet is never a good idea.


My phone acct is not my net worth... fortunately :)

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

Don't ever bet any horse less than 2-1.


If anyone can keep track of all the horses they bet in a log. They will see that this is a big mistake to bet horse this low in odds.

They is just too many things that will go wrong.

Mark my words!!!

[highnote]

Don't ever bet any horse less than 2-1.


If anyone can keep track of all the horses they bet in a log. They will see that this is a big mistake to bet horse this low in odds.

They is just too many things that will go wrong.

Mark my words!!!


I think it was Jim Quinn who wrote that the key to winning is being able to distinguish between the 6/5s and the 8/5s.

To me, it still comes down to expectation. Doesn't matter what the odds are as long as there is a true edge.

I do agree that you should keep track of your bets in a log.

[classhandicapper]

I made the same bet to place. :ThmbUp:

[LemonSoupKid]

I had Smarty in the Belmont 4 years ago, and I'll have Brown with higher payouts to place and show this year. There will be more surplus (stupid) money in NY, bet your bootie.

The McMannis quote is stupid. It's all about value, as john pointed out.

One thing is certain, Brown should be no lower than even money in the Belmont. He'll be 2-5.

I'd look to bet to win elsewhere, if you desire to do such a thing.

I always say, "people kill for 20% return on investment." And the idiot horse players say it won't "pay anything". If we forget place, even: Honestly, what were the odds that he didn't run 3rd? And you got .20 on the dollar for that? That's highway robbery. But the idiots will flood the win pool again at Belmont, rest assured. You can call me a genius later

LSK

[Tom Barrister]

Assuming that you know that you're getting $2.40 on Big Brown, it might be an overlay. It's to be noted that the second and third favorites were out of the money. If they'd come in, the horse might have paid $2.20 to show, which might not make it an overlay before the fact. The horse can throw its rider, stumble badly, break down, get impeded by a fallen or stumbling horse, get caught behind a wall of horses and lose much ground, etc.

One only needs to remember Barbaro in the Preakness to realize why 1-10 or 1-20 is never going to be much of an overlay (if it's an overlay at all), even to show.

[classhandicapper]

Assuming that you know that you're getting $2.40 on Big Brown, it might be an overlay. It's to be noted that the second and third favorites were out of the money. If they'd come in, the horse might have paid $2.20 to show, which might not make it an overlay before the fact. The horse can throw its rider, stumble badly, break down, get impeded by a fallen or stumbling horse, get caught behind a wall of horses and lose much ground, etc.

One only needs to remember Barbaro in the Preakness to realize why 1-10 or 1-20 is never going to be much of an overlay (if it's an overlay at all), even to show.

You'd be surprised how high a percentage you can hit to place if you are very selective. I've hit 80% to place over the last 3 years or so and the vast majority of the horses were nowhere near as likely as BB was in the Preakness. I gave him between 85%-90% to be 1-2.

[highnote]

Assuming that you know that you're getting $2.40 on Big Brown, it might be an overlay. It's to be noted that the second and third favorites were out of the money. If they'd come in, the horse might have paid $2.20 to show, which might not make it an overlay before the fact.

I calculated that he would still pay more for place than win even if the 2nd choice ran second. And he would have paid 2.40 to show even if the 3rd choice ran 3rd. BB had 60% of the win pool, 35% of place and 30% of show and that was win 8,000,000 in the win pool. Those pools don't move much at that point.



The horse can throw its rider, stumble badly, break down, get impeded by a fallen or stumbling horse, get caught behind a wall of horses and lose much ground, etc.

I read where the Sartin people said there is a 5% chance your horse can get into trouble that costs him the race. I figured BB has at least 85% to win.

One only needs to remember Barbaro in the Preakness to realize why 1-10 or 1-20 is never going to be much of an overlay (if it's an overlay at all), even to show.

Maybe that was one of the 5% who has serious trouble. YOu'll still win the other 95% and when they pay more to place than to win it's a good bet.