SRK
05-17-2008, 03:58 PM
The 2008 Preakness *** Selections ***
Here is the scenario I envision for this year’s Preakness. Big Brown (7) is prominent from the bell, starts to edge away going around the far turn, and pulls away for another convincing victory. Not too profound, eh? So far, he’s proven to be the best of his 3-y-o classmates, now its time to really start judging how Big Brown compares to other Derby winners, Triple Crown candidates, and IF he pulls it off, Triple Crown winners. So far, I rate him as average when compared to these historical groups. Let’s see where he ends up on the 1:53 to 1:56 scale today. The closer he can run to 1:53 and change, the higher he’ll start to move on my list. Conversely, a 1:56 and change efforts starts to confirm my thinking that he is a very good horse who is flattered by being placed against mediocre competition. Supporting both of these points are the ho-hum final time of this year’s Derby, and the fact that the filly who ran second (very well done, Miss – R.I.P.), would have finished 10-15 lengths behind the winner in most years. I’m not yet convinced that Big Brown deserves a lofty place on the All-time list. We’ll know a little more later today.
OK – betting public. How (and who) do you wager on in this race? Basically I am going to take who I believe are the 3 best early paced runners, along with who I believe are the 3 best late paced runners, and hope one from each group fills out the tri. The complete scenario being, a forwardly placed horse hangs on for second or third, and one of the come-from-behinders, gets up late to hit the board, or even passes the rest of the also-rans, for the place.
The best early runners, interestingly enough, are all drawn outside. Pimlico favors early runners, so any of these guys could hang around quite a long time this afternoon. Giant Moon (11) is several wise, and many not-so-wiseguy’s exotic horse. I like the jock. He is bred for the distance, as he appears to get better as the races get longer. Working well. Fresh. Gayego (12). Do you remember Hansel? I do. A buddy of mine gave me $50 bucks to bet on him in the Preakness, after he threw in a clunker in the Derby. I snickered to myself, and booked the bet. As I remember, that cost me about 2 bills. His connections are giving Gayego one more try, and so am I. Hey Byrn (13) actually made my list of best early and best late horses, which is a plus. Has won sprinting, routing, and against Graded company. Has his work cut out for him today, but I feel and in the money finish is possible.
There were many candidates to make my best late running horse list. Icabad Crane (3) is the only horse to have run, and won, at Pimlico. History has smiled on horses with local experience in this event. Good connections. Good tactical speed. Nice closing punch. Logical tri contender. Yankee Bravo (4) is perhaps the most accomplished passer of the group. Made a nice middle move in his last, and his best effort came over a dirt track. Deserves a spot on your tickets. Last, but not least, comes Kentucky Bear (8). Actually, he has flashed both early and late speed. This lightly raced colt, has been working well, and has every right to make a big move forward today.
My tickets.
Tri 7 with 11,12,13 with 3,4,8.
Tri 7 with 3,4,8 with 11,12,13.
Here is the scenario I envision for this year’s Preakness. Big Brown (7) is prominent from the bell, starts to edge away going around the far turn, and pulls away for another convincing victory. Not too profound, eh? So far, he’s proven to be the best of his 3-y-o classmates, now its time to really start judging how Big Brown compares to other Derby winners, Triple Crown candidates, and IF he pulls it off, Triple Crown winners. So far, I rate him as average when compared to these historical groups. Let’s see where he ends up on the 1:53 to 1:56 scale today. The closer he can run to 1:53 and change, the higher he’ll start to move on my list. Conversely, a 1:56 and change efforts starts to confirm my thinking that he is a very good horse who is flattered by being placed against mediocre competition. Supporting both of these points are the ho-hum final time of this year’s Derby, and the fact that the filly who ran second (very well done, Miss – R.I.P.), would have finished 10-15 lengths behind the winner in most years. I’m not yet convinced that Big Brown deserves a lofty place on the All-time list. We’ll know a little more later today.
OK – betting public. How (and who) do you wager on in this race? Basically I am going to take who I believe are the 3 best early paced runners, along with who I believe are the 3 best late paced runners, and hope one from each group fills out the tri. The complete scenario being, a forwardly placed horse hangs on for second or third, and one of the come-from-behinders, gets up late to hit the board, or even passes the rest of the also-rans, for the place.
The best early runners, interestingly enough, are all drawn outside. Pimlico favors early runners, so any of these guys could hang around quite a long time this afternoon. Giant Moon (11) is several wise, and many not-so-wiseguy’s exotic horse. I like the jock. He is bred for the distance, as he appears to get better as the races get longer. Working well. Fresh. Gayego (12). Do you remember Hansel? I do. A buddy of mine gave me $50 bucks to bet on him in the Preakness, after he threw in a clunker in the Derby. I snickered to myself, and booked the bet. As I remember, that cost me about 2 bills. His connections are giving Gayego one more try, and so am I. Hey Byrn (13) actually made my list of best early and best late horses, which is a plus. Has won sprinting, routing, and against Graded company. Has his work cut out for him today, but I feel and in the money finish is possible.
There were many candidates to make my best late running horse list. Icabad Crane (3) is the only horse to have run, and won, at Pimlico. History has smiled on horses with local experience in this event. Good connections. Good tactical speed. Nice closing punch. Logical tri contender. Yankee Bravo (4) is perhaps the most accomplished passer of the group. Made a nice middle move in his last, and his best effort came over a dirt track. Deserves a spot on your tickets. Last, but not least, comes Kentucky Bear (8). Actually, he has flashed both early and late speed. This lightly raced colt, has been working well, and has every right to make a big move forward today.
My tickets.
Tri 7 with 11,12,13 with 3,4,8.
Tri 7 with 3,4,8 with 11,12,13.