Friday's picks, 10 tracks

[Ray2000]

Long list today.

..boxing 3 with ML on first choice >7

Flamboro R11…426 Distinctiv Lewy 8/1 Set A Date 5/2 Southern Charge 6/1
Weak pick but the 4 can go with this bunch and better driver tonight

Maywood R13…125 Rd Rustler 12/1 Chicachicaboomboom 4/1 Fox Valley Recluse 5/1
the 1 is improving, nice third at 65/1, and they assign him the rail?

Meadows R9…438 My Peggy Sue 12/1 Forward Momentum 4/1 Time To Speak 5/1
the 4 needed the start, still had a good 4thQT, lasix helped, has best TM speed&class

Mohawk R12…184 Casual Behavior 8/1 Three Xs 5/1 Whitesand Gem 7/1
My speed ratings show HM being 2 or 3 secs slower than Mohawk
but handling the tougher competion may be a lot to ask of the 1.
5 for 17 as a 3yr old is a plus.

The BigM R3…1047 Allamerican Happy 10/1 Lady Jay 3/1 Laura Lane N 15/1
the 10 Stepping up in claimers to meet the 4 stepping down,
must leave and get a good spot or forget it. the 7 on board 50% of time

The BigM R5…316 Gro 10/1 Up Front Jan-E-Lu 6/1 U All Bb 3/1
the 3's problems may be behind her, (sickness). raced well at BMLP last yr.

Pocono R8…194 Allamerican Summer 8/1 Anna Sage 3/1 Kurahaupo Diamond 6/1
I think the new trainer and driver on the 1 will help him overcome the class rise.

Rideau-Carleton R3…126 Landfairjackieboy 15/1 D Gs Thrill 6/1 Legacy Lives On 2/1
The 1 in cheap, qualified nicely, raced poorly, needs a good drive(r)

Tioga R3…725 Koko In Paris 8/1 Armbro Dasher 6/1 Fly With Action 8/1
Best TM class and speed, on paper looks like a class up but isn't, softer field

Vernon R8…297 Beautiful Shay 8/1 Mystic Player 5/2 Miss Robin'S Magic 10/1
Will need another LTM but is sharp, I like the 7 as a popper here

...Pompano racing good for a laugh
Pompano R7…924 Beerthirty 8/1 Katia Presquile 12/1 Be Be Bonita 7/2
the 6 (and 7) will probably break.. the 9 might leave with McNichol,
the 2 ships to Indiana for an overnight? the 4 beaten by 42 lengths last 2
Oh what the hell...box'em:)

Good luck to all

[freddyblu22]

Long list today.

..boxing 3 with ML on first choice >7

Flamboro R11…426 Distinctiv Lewy 8/1 Set A Date 5/2 Southern Charge 6/1
Weak pick but the 4 can go with this bunch and better driver tonight

Maywood R13…125 Rd Rustler 12/1 Chicachicaboomboom 4/1 Fox Valley Recluse 5/1
the 1 is improving, nice third at 65/1, and they assign him the rail?

Meadows R9…438 My Peggy Sue 12/1 Forward Momentum 4/1 Time To Speak 5/1
the 4 needed the start, still had a good 4thQT, lasix helped, has best TM speed&class

Mohawk R12…184 Casual Behavior 8/1 Three Xs 5/1 Whitesand Gem 7/1
My speed ratings show HM being 2 or 3 secs slower than Mohawk
but handling the tougher competion may be a lot to ask of the 1.
5 for 17 as a 3yr old is a plus.

The BigM R3…1047 Allamerican Happy 10/1 Lady Jay 3/1 Laura Lane N 15/1
the 10 Stepping up in claimers to meet the 4 stepping down,
must leave and get a good spot or forget it. the 7 on board 50% of time

The BigM R5…316 Gro 10/1 Up Front Jan-E-Lu 6/1 U All Bb 3/1
the 3's problems may be behind her, (sickness). raced well at BMLP last yr.

Pocono R8…194 Allamerican Summer 8/1 Anna Sage 3/1 Kurahaupo Diamond 6/1
I think the new trainer and driver on the 1 will help him overcome the class rise.

Rideau-Carleton R3…126 Landfairjackieboy 15/1 D Gs Thrill 6/1 Legacy Lives On 2/1
The 1 in cheap, qualified nicely, raced poorly, needs a good drive(r)

Tioga R3…725 Koko In Paris 8/1 Armbro Dasher 6/1 Fly With Action 8/1
Best TM class and speed, on paper looks like a class up but isn't, softer field

Vernon R8…297 Beautiful Shay 8/1 Mystic Player 5/2 Miss Robin'S Magic 10/1
Will need another LTM but is sharp, I like the 7 as a popper here

...Pompano racing good for a laugh
Pompano R7…924 Beerthirty 8/1 Katia Presquile 12/1 Be Be Bonita 7/2
the 6 (and 7) will probably break.. the 9 might leave with McNichol,
the 2 ships to Indiana for an overnight? the 4 beaten by 42 lengths last 2
Oh what the hell...box'em:)

Good luck to all

good luck today!!

this is what my take was on the meadowlands race 3 tonight.. i never like it (superstitous) when someone else has the same longshot opinion as me, but who knows.. maybe we're onto something...

Race 3 Selections 10-3-2-4
ALLAMERICAN HAPPY got the driver switch to Tetrick last week and look what happened! Swept right on by to get the score in 1:51:2, and looked pretty good in doing so too. The double jump in price and post 10 isn’t going to make a repeat easy, but is going to stand an upset chance at a big price. Interesting spot for LYE CREEK BETTY, in is what I believe her first time in a claimer. Classy and capable enough mare to take this if she is right. SWARDE draws another inside post to keep her within range and LADY JAY launched a powerful rally to beat these 2 back.

[Ray2000]

Sorry freddy, if it's any consolation when my picks agree with your posts it's usually been $$ in the bank.:)

Poor night except for trifecta players
(came with 1/2 length of spectacular..Rideau)

Flamboro R11............163 no hit
Maywood R13.............125 Win $8.00 Exacta $20.40 Trifecta $71.80
Meadows R9..............475 Winner $5.80
Mohawk R12.............1053 no hit
The BigM R3.............271 no hit
The BigM R5.............741 no hit
Pocono R8...............892 no hit
Rideau-Carleton R3......281 no hit
..this one hurt ...2 paid $61 to Win, Exacta 2-8 paid $2090
..the 1 was the 4/5 fav battled the 6, faded to show
Tioga R3................235 no hit
Vernon R8...............965 no hit
Pompano R7..............429 Exacta $64.80 Trifecta $277.60

Win bets $22 in,....$14 back
Box bets $132 in
...If Exactas.......$85 back
...If Trifectas....$349 back

Hope Y'all made $

[LottaKash]

Hey Ray, 1-for-1 at Rideau Carlton ....who takes action on RC ??....man, $61.00, a nice round number to be sure.....:jump:

I sense that your handicapping is in a state of flux lately....your results lately, suggest this.....I sense you are trying to marry several handicapping components together.....Could I be right ?...:jump:

How do you have the time to analyze so many tracks ?

For me, it takes me just under an hour to add my new pace/speed numbers (paper & pencil) to 2-tracks, and it is e-z, and then there is the analysis itself......I must be getting really old.......:confused:

best,

[Ray2000]

Hey Johnny

I use a computer to search for certain types of races and then rate the top 3 horses.
I look at the print out list and for those races where the Pick 1 has a Morning Line > 7,
I check the program to see if I want to post it here. Takes about a half hour.

Actually my handicapping is not in a state of flux, what is.. is trying to come up with a new way of saying the same old thing. :)
"He's got the rail", "Has best Speed and Class", "Like the Driver switch"

Youbet takes action on Rideau-Carleton, but the small time Canadian tracks have their own risk.
Last night the Exacta that paid $2090 only had $1282 in the entire exacta pool. (Someone, probably celebrating his/her 28th birthday, had a 1 $ box on the 2-8). Had my 2-1 hit it was going to pay $288.

Good luck today

[LottaKash]

Hey Ray, very cool stuff.....I am dying of curiosity at how you arrive at the numbers and proceed to make a selection........do you take the numbers at face value, or do you add some art-form and subjective stuff to it..??

best,

[Ray2000]

Hey Johnny

The numbers are face value... some are used as is, like dollars per start or win percentage, others
(and here's the part you'll be interested in) namely fraction and final times have to be adjusted for
track speed rating, variant that day, driver ability, racing wides, and starting post. And I know some will laugh here, but yes,
the program uses regression analysis to come up with a projected speed rating for today's performance.

When I used to go to the track every day (The Meadows) I could use "subjective" type information not available in the program such as barn talk, trainer tendencies, post parade behavior. (I would actually clock the warm-up miles when they used to score down 1 hr before the race). When I moved away I decided to see if the data in the program was enough to produce winning plays and if so, in which race types and what betting pools.

This is still a work in progress but after 5 years of tweaking, the answer is yes.

Good luck with your pace-speed-form figures, you're on the right track, (no pun intended)

Ray

[LottaKash]

Hey Ray, sorry for the belated reply to this, and thanks for the comeback..........Sounds like a lot of work....I am so lazy...I want a black box, now.........!!!!!!!!!!!!:jump: