Sure Thing ?

[cj's dad]

We all know there is no such thing.

What are your doubts about Big Brown in the the Preakness, if any.

[joanied]

We all know there is no such thing.

What are your doubts about Big Brown in the the Preakness, if any.

After the PP draw, my doubt is his post postion...#7 may be his undoing because you know the other jocks are going to try their best to keep BB covered up...Kent D will have his work cut out...he's going to have to ride very smart.
May the best horse win...Big Brown!!

[Wickel]

I think Desormeaux might be his undoing. Unless Mr. D takes him to the lead, there won't be clear sailing this time around. If he decides to rate, he'll get dirt in his face, maybe tight quarters, etc. Sometimes Desormeaux is too confident for his own good. The two-week turnaround also concerns me.

[Marshall Bennett]

With a safe trip , he's about as close to a sure thing as it gets .

[russowen77]

With a safe trip , he's about as close to a sure thing as it gets .
There was an old fella around here when I was young that was very successful as a handicapper. He was only here during the season as he followed the tracks.

One of his favorite sayings was " A 100& sure thing dead lock horse will win 70% of the time".

[classhandicapper]

He's a horse with a history of hoof and ankle problems. So there's always a chance that something acts up during the race and he throws in a real dud.

Without that, personally, I don't see him regressing enough to lose unless someone else fires a big lifetime top too.

[Overlay]

Perhaps grasping at straws, but (as Wickel indicated) I've heard commentary about the possible effect of the relatively short layoff between the Derby and the Preakness, especially considering the Derby distance (despite Big Brown's authoritative win).

[joanied]

Ok...I beleive that Kent D has changed (grew up)just enough to become a more humble man, and I hope it shows in his riding...he should feel confident, but as Wickel said, his over confidence has gotten him beat before...like in Real Quiet's Belmont...he looked under his arm, saw that he was 'home free' and quit riding...the rest is...well, history.

But, I have to think he'll give one of his best rides on Saturday, keep his eyes wide open, and get BB in a good spot...which ain't gonna be easy, as I mentioned, they're all gonna be wanting to keep:mad: BB boxed in tight.



I don't think the 2 wks should matter...I beleive this colt does have a Large Heart, so he'll have plenty to give...besides, how about all the other Derby/Preakness winners...they all had the same 2 wks. Can't use that for an excuse IF he gets beat.



I also think his hoof problems are OK...for now...and I never heard anything about him having bad ankles?



I'm still gonna watch for BB to take the Preakness.

:jump:

[phatbastard]

while i think he will win, concerns about hoof problem , quick-turnatround, and that it seemed that they were rushing to make the syndication, which i read fell-through


looks like cheap out for me, i'll try a super and enjoy the race

[joanied]

while i think he will win, concerns about hoof problem , quick-turnatround, and that it seemed that they were rushing to make the syndication, which i read fell-through


looks like cheap out for me, i'll try a super and enjoy the race

And it should be a great race TO enjoy!!
Go :jump: Brown, GO!!!

[Marshall Bennett]

There was an old fella around here when I was young that was very successful as a handicapper. He was only here during the season as he followed the tracks.

One of his favorite sayings was " A 100& sure thing dead lock horse will win 70% of the time".
As I said , about as " close " to a sure thing as it gets . Looking back , I'm hard pressed to find any that were much closer , though I'm sure there are those who will argue otherwise .

[PaceAdvantage]

I doubt anyone is going to gang up on BB in the Preakness. For one, he's a tough horse to gang up on, as he can make his own trip.

Two, Jerry Bailey is still retired, as far as I know....

Three, if you're a jockey, do you really want to piss off IEAH and Dutrow and jeopardize your chances of ever riding for them if it's apparent your goal in the race is to get BB beaten?

[russowen77]

As I said , about as " close " to a sure thing as it gets . Looking back , I'm hard pressed to find any that were much closer , though I'm sure there are those who will argue otherwise .

I agree with you about his chances. I mean the jockey could fall off or something but he is going to have to throw a real clunker or something unusual happen to lose this race. imo.

[HolyBull29]

Most of the jocks in the Preakness do not run in NY and do not ride for Dutrow. They porb will not care what Dutrow thinks. Also they are all big time established jocks who can ride for anyone.

[PaceAdvantage]

Most of the jocks in the Preakness do not run in NY and do not ride for Dutrow. They porb will not care what Dutrow thinks. Also they are all big time established jocks who can ride for anyone.Yeah....ok....

[BombsAway Bob]

We all know there is no such thing.

What are your doubts about Big Brown in the the Preakness, if any.
Steve Crist shows past odds-on beaten Preakness faves...
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2008/05/odds-on-in-the.html (http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2008/05/odds-on-in-the.html)

[cj's dad]

Since I have booked for the Belmont and also want to see a TC winner, I hope BB wins the race. Do I think he can lose lose?, of course he can by the following ways:

1- throw a shoe
2- throw the rider
3- poor trip
4-lack of experience
5-short lay off
6- tight turns
7-fresh horses to run against
8-hard surface as compared to CD
9-KD repeats his pitiful ride on Real Quiet
10- any other reason not mentioned here

Having said that--- GO BB!!!!

[joanied]

I doubt anyone is going to gang up on BB in the Preakness. For one, he's a tough horse to gang up on, as he can make his own trip.

Two, Jerry Bailey is still retired, as far as I know....

Three, if you're a jockey, do you really want to piss off IEAH and Dutrow and jeopardize your chances of ever riding for them if it's apparent your goal in the race is to get BB beaten?

Bailey:cool: was great at being able to cover a horse in such a subtle way, no one really knew it was happening. But I still stay with the notion that if the other riders on Sat. can keep BB boxed in, without making it obvious, they'll do it...if that was the way you could take home part of a million dollar purse, wouldn't you at least try? As for riding for Dutrow and/or IEAH....if they need a good rider, they are not going to not ride someone because he tried:eek: to win the Preakness by 'race riding' on another horse...that's just the way it is. I may be wrong, but that's my story:p and I'm stickin' to it:D
But, I also have faith in Kent D...he'll do everything he can to keep BB in good position the entire way....and as you said, BB is not a horse that'll take any rough stuff without pushing back...he seems to have that certain something that sets him apart from all the rest.
I just read in the Blood Horse magazine some things BB's excersise rider said about him, and it blew me away....this is Dutrow's once in a lifetime horse. he won't get beat tomorrow.

[LottaKash]

What, no low-priced overlay tom'w ??........:rolleyes:

[joanied]

http://www.bloodhorse.com:80/article/45256.htm (http://www.bloodhorse.com/article/45256.htm)

Behindatthebar has been scratched. BB now goes from PP#6...won't matter...he wins regardless.

[rrbauer]

There's no speed of any consequence in the three (3) holes to his left and in the three (3) holes to his right. I'm guessing Giant Moon and Gayego (B-on) will go from his outside and maybe Tres Borrachos from his inside. He'll be no worse than 4th into the turn and should fare better than the 5-path this time.

Deja vu all over again.

[KingChas]

I doubt anyone is going to gang up on BB in the Preakness. For one, he's a tough horse to gang up on, as he can make his own trip.

Two, Jerry Bailey is still retired, as far as I know....



Now that was funny! :lol:
Jerry's waiting to see if BB wins the Preakness before announcing on national tv that he is returning to ride in the Belmont. :D

Warning: I'm Joking.........I Hope! :eek:

[broadreach]

Odds 1-3 on some books:eek: