Could there be any value in the super at the Preakness

[pktruckdriver]

I was wondering if you think there will be any value in the
Preakness Superfecta this year? Now I know if BB is out of it yes there would be value in it, but knowing that may not happen, can there still be value there?

Or would the pick 3's and pick 4's be the better bets on this day?

Just looking for an average payout of 1500-2500 , since it's Preakness day, not expecting super's like Derby Day provided of course, but just wondering what I could shoot for, that's all? Being the novice here and all.


Thanks
Patrick

[LemonSoupKid]

How many of you are playing it?

Value is relative so yes, there will be value. Will there be a HUGE score? Probably not. Definitely not a $1 paying $29k score.

Can anyone beat Big Brown? We'll see. Getting the winner outside of him will be a tall task. The other filling positions are just as hard, though!

How big of a ticket will you guys play?

LemonSoupKid

[njcurveball]

I was wondering if you think there will be any value in the
Preakness Superfecta this year?

Because of the heavy favorite, there will be a smaller pool. One longshot will not be enough to get a signer, but two of them just might.

I would structure a bet like the one below

BB = Big Brown
C1 = your best contender to finish 2nd or 3rd
C2 = your next best contender to finish 2nd or 3rd
L2 = Longshot who you feel will be 2nd - 4th
L3 = Longshot who you feel will be 3rd - 4th
L4 = Longshot who you feel may get 4th

Please note: L2, L3, L4 need to be 5th choice or higher. C1, C2 can be two of the top 4 choices.


BB / C1, C2, L2 / all / L2, L3, L4

BB / C1, C2, L2 / C1, C2, L2, L3 / all

If you want to really spread and like L2 wheel him in trifectas as follows

BB / L2 / all

BB/ all / L2

also a saver win bet on L2 to keep your sanity if something happens to BB


If you are right on L2 you should make some decent money. One more bomb should get a payoff over $500 for a $1 ticket. If you have the right horses underneath, you might just cash both superfecta tickets.

Good luck,
Jim

[pktruckdriver]

Hey Jim


Thanks , it gives me some options to team up on, as I will just try a few bucks , maybe, this time.

Waiting for the Belmont if BB wins may be the best thing to do, but throwing in a few longshot tri's and a couple supers won't hurt anything, as we all know there is no such thing as a sure thing, and this Derby Trail has proven that more than once.

Now the hard part , what 4-5 horses have a shot at beating this monster. I think only a few do, but I'm not the expert here, I'll be the 1st to tell you that, maybe someday, but not yet.

Thanks

[BlueShoe]

The best option might be to just not bet the race and just enjoy it.Only practical option would be to key BB and use several price horses under him.If the second and third choices are must uses,then the race becomes unplayable imo.

[pktruckdriver]

Come to think of it, with BB going to go off at 1/5 or 2/5, to me it seems unless he runs out, there will be no value at all.


Also The other problem, will there be big pools in case BB does run out, as we all know, it could happen, but will most of us keep our money and just watch the race, thus leaving the pools only slightly higher than normal.

I mean 15/1, 20/1 and more will be some of the others, what does a $30 horse on top of a $40-50 horse pay, if BB runs out???

Now this only comes into play if BB runs out, which I don't really see, but ....


Patrick

[raybo]

In a superfecta, it doesn't really matter if the favorite is 2/1 or 2/5 as long as you have odds below him. All you can do, if you play BB on top, is to wheel him with whatever contenders, for ITM, you come up with, but, as was stated earlier, if the 2nd and 3rd favs look real good to hit the ticket, and they do, then there will be no money to be made

You must have either BB off the top row or 2nd and 3rd favs off the ticket to make a sizeable profit. One long odds horse on 2nd, 3rd, or 4th row won't help you.