Big Brown Won't Race at 4; Stud Deal Done

[Spectacular Sid]

IEAH cashing in while they can. They say it ain't Darley. Another forum says Baby Head Clay at Three Chimneys is getting the horse.

[MickJ26]

Logically speaking, the Belmont Stakes could be his last race. If his stud rights have already been sold, I can't see Big Brown being pointed to the Travers and beyond. He could retire an undefeated Triple Crown champion, why tarnish that?

[Cangamble]

I'm predicting the Preakness will be his last race, if he wins it. I expect them to announce that he isn't 100% for the Belmont, and then they will drag out the retirement announcement as long as they can.
A loss in any race can only hurt his value, and the Belmont or a Breeders Cup race won't help it much, in my not so humble opinion.

[russowen77]

I think if he wins the TC it will be worth 100k a pop for the first two years. He will have to throw to maintain his value.

[Cangamble]

I think if he wins the TC it will be worth 100k a pop for the first two years. He will have to throw to maintain his value.
I doubt that there will be much of a difference assuming he wins the Preakness, whether he participates and wins the Belmont or not.

[Grits]

CG, what you've stated, I would not be one bit surprised to see, come to pass.

I'm predicting the Preakness will be his last race, if he wins it. I expect them to announce that he isn't 100% for the Belmont, and then they will drag out the retirement announcement as long as they can.

[cj's dad]

I'm predicting the Preakness will be his last race, if he wins it.

Bold prediction. I would assume that if he does win the Preakness, a loss of life insurance policy for would be taken out for the Belmont, if not already in place. I think the owners and their ego would trump your prediction.

But, if you are correct, I would have to give serious thought to getting out of the game.

[Tom Barrister]

I doubt that there will be much of a difference assuming he wins the Preakness, whether he participates and wins the Belmont or not.

There would be a big difference. If there wasn't, then the horse would have already been retired. There probably wouldn't be much of a difference in stud fees between winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and retiring, and winning the Kentucky Derby and retiring. The first Triple Crown winner in 30 years might command nearly twice as much at stud as simply winning the first and/or second legs. If he doesn't win the Preakness, he will likely be retired. I would be shocked if he raced after the Belmont.

[russowen77]

There would be a big difference. If there wasn't, then the horse would have already been retired. There probably wouldn't be much of a difference in stud fees between winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and retiring, and winning the Kentucky Derby and retiring. The first Triple Crown winner in 30 years might command nearly twice as much at stud as simply winning the first and/or second legs. If he doesn't win the Preakness, he will likely be retired. I would be shocked if he raced after the Belmont.
IMO, the market will go nuts over the next TC winner. They will forget about Sire and grand sires knees and his hooves and drag all kinds of mares to his shed. If he doesn't pass along those offset knees then he will get a lot of mares at big prices for at least 2-3 years. Lord knows the number of covers he will command.

[Cangamble]

There would be a big difference. If there wasn't, then the horse would have already been retired. There probably wouldn't be much of a difference in stud fees between winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and retiring, and winning the Kentucky Derby and retiring. The first Triple Crown winner in 30 years might command nearly twice as much at stud as simply winning the first and/or second legs. If he doesn't win the Preakness, he will likely be retired. I would be shocked if he raced after the Belmont.
Lets not forget that we a dealing with an UNDEFEATED horse right now. Statistically for a horse like Big Brown, he is supposed to be a cinch in the Preakness, or as close to a cinch as possible.
The Belmont is a different story. The distance has defeated many a horse who peaked for the Derby.

[sandpit]

IMO, the market will go nuts over the next TC winner. They will forget about Sire and grand sires knees and his hooves and drag all kinds of mares to his shed. If he doesn't pass along those offset knees then he will get a lot of mares at big prices for at least 2-3 years. Lord knows the number of covers he will command.

Right on target...they did the same thing with Smarty Jones and now his offspring are hardly showing up on the worktabs and the buy back rate at auction for his babies is about 55%...ouch.

[russowen77]

Lets not forget that we a dealing with an UNDEFEATED horse right now. Statistically for a horse like Big Brown, he is supposed to be a cinch in the Preakness, or as close to a cinch as possible.
The Belmont is a different story. The distance has defeated many a horse who peaked for the Derby.
I know some of y'all discount these but---
His DI is 1.67 and his DP is 4-7-23-2-0. Lord he was made for the Belmont.

I know his sire only went 7f but that is all they asked from him due to his knees. He is inbred to a Belmont winner. If he is healthy 12f should be right in his wheel house.

[Cangamble]

I know some of y'all discount these but---
His DI is 1.67 and his DP is 4-7-23-2-0. Lord he was made for the Belmont.

I know his sire only went 7f but that is all they asked from him due to his knees. He is inbred to a Belmont winner. If he is healthy 12f should be right in his wheel house.
I do believe in breeding ratings like D.I. but still, there are way too many IFs when it comes to the Belmont, and not as many when it comes to the Preakness.

[headhawg]

The fact that we're even talking about such a lightly-raced 3yo retiring really speaks to the sorry state this sport is in.

[Living Flame]

Yeah I was just about to say the same thing. Imagine Secretariat quitting after the Preakness. Imagine that! Or the Belmont, even.:ThmbDown:


Not that Big Brown can even dream of being THAT good!

[BillW]

Deal was not done - it just fell through per the DRF.

[jognlope]

other than he resembles Lemon Drop Kid I have no interest in Big Brown, just maybe because of the sad circumstances of Derby. He is quite a specimen, even as a yearling.

[Spectacular Sid]

After reading Beyer article in WaPo http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/05/14/ST2008051404232.html I'm not sure who would want to do a deal with these guys. Slimy.

[PaceAdvantage]

The fact that we're even talking about such a lightly-raced 3yo retiring really speaks to the sorry state this sport is in.Or, maybe we shouldn't put much stock into this early retirement talk.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah I was just about to say the same thing. Imagine Secretariat quitting after the Preakness. Imagine that! Or the Belmont, even.:ThmbDown:


Not that Big Brown can even dream of being THAT good!Yeah, really. After all, he's just undefeated, has won on dirt and turf, and won the Kentucky Derby in only his fourth lifetime start....how silly to even think of him achieving some sort of greatness on par with some of the sport's best. :rolleyes:

[jognlope]

Pace, but if he doesn't hang around how will we at least enjoy that greatness. Greatness is as greatness does.

[NY BRED]

The only issue with BB winning the Preakness is soundness, which
hopefully is not an issue on Saturday.

BB's tactical speed makes him an ideal candidate for the Belmont, and
the wild card is Casino Drive who looked impressive beating up
a field that wasn't exactly impressive.

That said, why retire the horse after the Belmont as he could relax until the fall
and lightly prep for the Breeders Cup.

I would believe that option would be taken if BB fails to fire in his next two races, and strongly considered if he wins the triple crown.

Certainly would look impressive on his resume when considering a stud:jump:

[headhawg]

Or, maybe we shouldn't put much stock into this early retirement talk.I don't know if the the owners will retire him or not. My point is that we're (fans of the sport) talking about it.

I liken it to a scenario where there's an MLB rookie who is batting .335, has 20 homers and 50 RBI in June, and his agent is saying that if he wins the Triple Crown he's going to retire and become an actor. This after there had been four major bench-clearing brawls in the previous month, one of which caused an injury so severe that the player would not longer be able to play baseball anymore. What would you say about that rookie and the state of MLB?

[OTM Al]

Stud deal not done

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94600.html

I'm sure they'll find one soon though

[whyhorseofcourse]

Done deal or not, its cool to see horses like this grow. The same thing happened with curlin and barbaro. It was a lot of fun to watch them break there maiden and become a world class race horse. I hope he races at 4.

[racefinder2]

If this horse wins the TC,

Does he get an * ???

[OTM Al]

No more than Man O' War gets one for facing only one opponent in many of his races. You can only race against what is entered in the race. Its still hard enough to win even then.

[Bubbles]

I wouldn't be at ALL surprised to see him win the TC, aim for the Haskell and Travers, then retire before being tested on synthetics for the BC at Santa Anita. Granted, he DID run huge on the grass in his debut, but if a stud deal is in place after the Travers, why run him on something he's not used to against older horses who are?

[Grits]

Bubbles, and others, I think you guys are dreamin'. This ain't gonna happen. This animal has got BAD FEET. Feet that are being built and held together. Feet that have required lengthy layoffs and limited his number of starts. If he gets to the Belmont Stakes, this five week endurance test, alone, will stress those feet and cause him to take more time off. Even Dutrow admits the concern. I just don't see it. I think he's too fragile.

Someone asked, "why retire him after the Belmont?"

I imagine his owners--at $1.00 per--can cite about 60 million reasons.