Woodside Associates - Race Of The Week

[john del riccio]

The Henry Kuck Ratings for The Preakness this saturday at PIM
are available at the link below. Good Luck.


John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/r...heweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)

[onefast99]

Thanks. Can you post the rest of the 11th

[LemonSoupKid]

C P V = Class Pace and Velocity?

How should one look at these. Is one factor more important than others. Is there a total rating like Durbin's e-ponies.com?

[lamboguy]

his stuff is supposed to be real good. i tried it, but really don't understand it. i would need some type of seminar to use his stuff. i wouldn't even mind paying for it, because it is something different than rag aor therograph numbers. i actually beleive they are better, but i still don't understand them

[MNslappy]

. Henry Kuck Rating Instructions (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/rating_instructions.php)

The Henry Kuck Ratings are unlike any other figures. Their unequalled precision has been proven over and over again at tracks across the United States and Canada. Three figures are computed for every race: Class (c); Pace (p); Variant (v). Each measures an important facet of a horse’s performance. Viewed together, the three figures provide the most fully-rounded view available of how well-suited a horse may be to handle its competition. For most profitable use of these figures, please read the instructions carefully and handicap in accordance with their guidelines.

VARIANT (v): The most significant figure. It reflects the speed of the track plus a great deal more. At a glance, this figure evaluates the horse’s performance on a given day. A comparison of the “v” figures for each horse quickly determines which has shown the most ability. The higher the “v” figure the better the performance. The “v” number listed for a race is the rating the winner earned. To arrive at a rating for any other horse in that race, simply subtract one point from the listed rating of the race for each length the horse was beaten. For example, if the “v” rating listed for the race is 78 and the horse won, that winner rates a 78. A horse that lost that race by three lengths rates a 75 (78-3). A difference of just one rating point signifies a real advantage of about one length. Such an advantage often proves decisive. Rate the horse’s two most recent starts, as well as earlier races contested under like conditions (distance, surface, track condition) which the horse won or was beaten only a few lengths . Compare the earlier ratings to the more recent ones to determine whether the horse is at its best, may be improving, or has gone off form.

PACE (p): The pace of today’s race plays a critical role in determining whether any horse may be able to match its top-rated (v) effort. If, for instance, a horse MUST race on the lead to be successful, the presence in the race of two or more other horses with equal or superior pace (p) ratings will regularly compromise the chance the front-runner has of showing to best advantage. Conversely, any top-rated horse (v) that also enjoys an early speed (p) advantage will prove extremely difficult to defeat. The pace rating enables a handicapper to determine how contentious the battle for the early lead might be and where any horse is likely to be positioned during the early stages of a race. The “p” figure listed for a race is the rating for the horse that was leading at the second call (1/2 mile call in sprints, 3/4 mile call in routes). To find the pace rating for any other horse in that race, subtract one point from the listed pace figure for each length behind (the same procedure as with “v” ratings).

CLASS (c): Evaluates the class of the horses that were actually in contention in a race. Often, the classiest animal in the field is out of form or suffers bad racing luck and plays no part in the outcome. The Class figure (c) tells what a horse really beat, or what a decisively defeated horse was unable to beat. It often reveals that a claiming race was of higher quality than an allowance, or that one claiming race was better than another with an identical top selling price. Class figures help separate contenders otherwise closely matched. They can also explain a poor effort when they reveal a horse was overmatched. A Class difference over 10% is significant.

[proximity]

this year i am using these ratings and john's "variant" (speed) figures are actually my favorite speed figures to use. pacewise i'm more of an energy (race-shape) guy and would love to use the moss #s with their raceshape info and 1/2 mile route ratings..... but they don't have these for many of the tracks i play (pha, pen, ct).

for three years prior to 2008, i "successfully" used tsn's computerized numbers, but by the end of 2007 i noted that i didn't feel as much like a winner as i did a survivor... constantly tip-toeing around landmines (obviously bad #s) EVERY racing day. i know alot of players disagree with me, but it is my belief that track variants do indeed split and slide from time to time and that human intervention is indeed necessary to make decent figures.

all this being said, i'm not sure that this particular race is the best example for these ratings. the variant figure for the lexington (81) seems too high to me. and the relationship between the lexington's pace and variant (82-81) definitely seems off. i know that pacesetter samba rooster did hold on for 2nd in the race, but i still feel that the pace (raceshape) was definitely quicker than "fast 1." overall though, these ratings are a good investment, especially if you play alot of east-coast and mid-atlantic tracks.

[john del riccio]

V = Variant, its the speed figure associated with the final time.


John

[john del riccio]

this year i am using these ratings and john's "variant" (speed) figures are actually my favorite speed figures to use. pacewise i'm more of an energy (race-shape) guy and would love to use the moss #s with their raceshape info and 1/2 mile route ratings..... but they don't have these for many of the tracks i play (pha, pen, ct).

for three years prior to 2008, i "successfully" used tsn's computerized numbers, but by the end of 2007 i noted that i didn't feel as much like a winner as i did a survivor... constantly tip-toeing around landmines (obviously bad #s) EVERY racing day. i know alot of players disagree with me, but it is my belief that track variants do indeed split and slide from time to time and that human intervention is indeed necessary to make decent figures.

all this being said, i'm not sure that this particular race is the best example for these ratings. the variant figure for the lexington (81) seems too high to me. and the relationship between the lexington's pace and variant (82-81) definitely seems off. i know that pacesetter samba rooster did hold on for 2nd in the race, but i still feel that the pace (raceshape) was definitely quicker than "fast 1." overall though, these ratings are a good investment, especially if you play alot of east-coast and mid-atlantic tracks.

The Lexington was a dynamite race, however it was over Polytrack.

John

[john del riccio]

Thanks. Can you post the rest of the 11th

Brian,

I have done one better, the whole card is posted.

Good Luck,
John

[onefast99]

Brian,

I have done one better, the whole card is posted.

Good Luck,
John
Thanks again. Call me when you get a minute.

[LemonSoupKid]

John, how do you guys see polytrack then? It's interesting that 7 or 8 of these horses last race was on cushion or poly, and that didn't take in the Derby. Isn't Pimlico even harder and therefore would give them an even harder time.

Also, are you saying that Behindatthebar's performance in the Coolmore Lexington is really that comparable to the Big Brown Derby win? Your Variant figure has it as such. An answer to this will give me a good indication how you see the figs in relation to one another.

[john del riccio]

John, how do you guys see polytrack then? It's interesting that 7 or 8 of these horses last race was on cushion or poly, and that didn't take in the Derby. Isn't Pimlico even harder and therefore would give them an even harder time.

Also, are you saying that Behindatthebar's performance in the Coolmore Lexington is really that comparable to the Big Brown Derby win? Your Variant figure has it as such. An answer to this will give me a good indication how you see the figs in relation to one another.

I treat races over polytrack as I used to treat turf races when there is a surface switch to dirt. Directly comparing poly figs & dirt figs when two horse are running on dirt today (or poly for that matter), will get you your ass handed to you in a hurry. The Lexington was a strong race and if this race was being run over Poly, I would be seriously looking at the horses coming out of that races as strong contenders. I will simply look at the horses coming out of that races as on the improve but I will focus on their DIRT form since they are running on dirt today.

It is only one example but look at how Colonel John ran in the derby, he had
the 2nd fastest variant rating in the field (along with the HAW Derby winner
& the horse that ran 2nd to BB in the Fla Derby) but he simply didnt fire
his A race on dirt the first time he raced over it. Yes, he had a brilliant 5/8 workout & did make an eye-catching move between the 1/2 mile & 1/4 pole but he flattened out from there.

Its best to "try" and do an apples to apples comparison and poly-dirt is more like apples to watermelons.;)

John

[proximity]

first off, to clarify, i am an anonymous subscriber to these figures..... and a satisfied one at that. so to john, i apologize for begrudging your lexington rating... first, because i could be wrong about it.... as i frequently am. and second because it clearly took attention away from the main theme of my post, which was that i feel your product would be a good buy for alot of players on this board.

now it is only one example, but look at how gayego got his "ass handed to him" in the arkansas derby. he had the first fastest variant rating(s) in the race and.......

anyhow, i confess that i do have a negative roi at kee since the inception of polytrack..... although i only make a handful of plays there every year... and ofcourse if samba rooster's jockey would've rated him at all (on polytrack) in the lexington....

[john del riccio]

first off, to clarify, i am an anonymous subscriber to these figures..... and a satisfied one at that. so to john, i apologize for begrudging your lexington rating... first, because i could be wrong about it.... as i frequently am. and second because it clearly took attention away from the main theme of my post, which was that i feel your product would be a good buy for alot of players on this board.

now it is only one example, but look at how gayego got his "ass handed to him" in the arkansas derby. he had the first fastest variant rating(s) in the race and.......

anyhow, i confess that i do have a negative roi at kee since the inception of polytrack..... although i only make a handful of plays there every year... and ofcourse if samba rooster's jockey would've rated him at all (on polytrack) in the lexington....


I think Gayego is one of the only Polytrack horses to have transfered his poly form over to dirt in this entire triple crown trail. I am not saying it can't be done, i am saying that i wont project it being done. Gayego, based on his poly number was the fastest horse going into tthe ARK-Derby but I did play him for the reasons I have already stated.

When the top horses out of the Lexington run back on the fake stuff, they will be tough. WIll they be as tough on dirt this saturday, maybe, but they
certainly haven't shown the same ability on dirt up to this point.

John

John

[Hard2Like]

The Kuck ratings are most helpful.With a little practice, they've helped me seperate between nice-priced horses that can circle the field and the ones that will circle the drain.Identifying early speed that can "be there" at the end has also become clearer to me.These figures help show me when confidence in my longshot picks is warranted.And todays entire Pim card for nothin'?!Thanks again,John.:ThmbUp:

[dutchboy]

Link does not work.

[john del riccio]

Dutch,


It does. must have been a glitch....


John

[RunForTheRoses]

Caught the P4 yesterday in part because of the Woodsides. Pays to Dream was just as fast in his races last year per the Kucks so I used him (as well as three others, it seemed fairly wide open). $500 + for a $1 bet (total cost-$72) for what was essentially a Pick 3.

[john del riccio]

Caught the P4 yesterday in part because of the Woodsides. Pays to Dream was just as fast in his races last year per the Kucks so I used him (as well as three others, it seemed fairly wide open). $500 + for a $1 bet (total cost-$72) for what was essentially a Pick 3.

Run,

Congrats... Glad they were helpful. Big Pools and alot of un-informed money makes for alot of value.

John