Harness....Meadowlands.....a new classification

[LottaKash]

Tonite - 5-14-08 - at the Meadowlands, I noticed a new wrinkle in the AGE OLD class structure at this track........

In tonite's 9th Race.......a race was written for...NW $5000 in the Last 4 Starts, winners over $20K in 08' ineligible...

It has been many, many years since I have seen a new class pop up at this track.......

I'm trying to think what horses would benefit most from these conditions........

It is limited in scope, as a horse couldn't make any more the $20K this year, so it would have to be a horse, that hasn't been doing well this year, or a horse that did well earlier in the year and is not doing well now......

Since, it is limited to $5K in the last 4 starts, given the purse structure at the Meadowlands, a horse would have to have been doing poorly in his last 4 -starts.....OR it would favor a horse who is just coming into good form, and is getting ready to win, after doing poorly recently.......catch this horse now...

Or horses that have been battling and knocking on the door lately,but have finished poorly, and have good excuses for their loss's..........

OR it would most likely favor a Higher Class horse that is just coming back from a vacation, and he did very poorly in his last 4 or 5 starts, before the needed rest.....and he would lay over the field, if coming back fast and fit.......

Since it is such a limiting class, off hand, I can't think of too many other type of horses that it would benefit.......any thoughts ???

I always try to take advantage of any little changes that may come our way, and try to cash in on these changes..
=====================================

In this race tonite, 4-horses fit this profile.....

#1 - Friday Nite Lights.......a classy horse, coming off a vacation after doing poorly, coming off a beautiful qualifier, so he should be fast and fit.......

#6 - Delray....a classier horse than most of these, has been putting in some real good speed lately and is coming around better with each passing race....will give a much account of himself tonite......

#9 - Sand Gogh...ran a whiz-bang race last week, trouble is for me, HIS Pace-Ratings suggest he will BOUNCE tonite...I predict he will he will either break stride, or injure his muscles further in this race tonite, as he does not have the true back class to run as fast as he did last week, as prior to that race he was not running that fast pace-wise......have a nice vacatioin Sand.......:rolleyes:

#4 - Life is a Cabaret...has some back class, and is coming back after a brief vacation, and in his last race ran a pretting strong even type race with a decent last 1/4.....I don't think he has a shot to win.......but he qualifies for the conditions, pretty much........
====================================

These are not my selections.....they are just the facts and the horses pertaining to this new WRINKLE.........

I do have my pick/opinion, he will sit in the 2-hole and win.... but, I will keep it to myself, as Freddy has already called DIBS on this race first......:lol:

G.L.......

best,

[maiom01]

I would favor the horse with the excuse and if the horse is associated with winning connections....

[freddyblu22]

Tonite - 5-14-08 - at the Meadowlands, I noticed a new wrinkle in the AGE OLD class structure at this track........

In tonite's 9th Race.......a race was written for...NW $5000 in the Last 4 Starts, winners over $20K in 08' ineligible...

It has been many, many years since I have seen a new class pop up at this track.......

I'm trying to think what horses would benefit most from these conditions........

It is limited in scope, as a horse couldn't make any more the $20K this year, so it would have to be a horse, that hasn't been doing well this year, or a horse that did well earlier in the year and is not doing well now......

Since, it is limited to $5K in the last 4 starts, given the purse structure at the Meadowlands, a horse would have to have been doing poorly in his last 4 -starts.....OR it would favor a horse who is just coming into good form, and is getting ready to win, after doing poorly recently.......catch this horse now...

Or horses that have been battling and knocking on the door lately,but have finished poorly, and have good excuses for their loss's..........

OR it would most likely favor a Higher Class horse that is just coming back from a vacation, and he did very poorly in his last 4 or 5 starts, before the needed rest.....and he would lay over the field, if coming back fast and fit.......

Since it is such a limiting class, off hand, I can't think of too many other type of horses that it would benefit.......any thoughts ???

I always try to take advantage of any little changes that may come our way, and try to cash in on these changes..
=====================================

In this race tonite, 4-horses fit this profile.....

#1 - Friday Nite Lights.......a classy horse, coming off a vacation after doing poorly, coming off a beautiful qualifier, so he should be fast and fit.......

#6 - Delray....a classier horse than most of these, has been putting in some real good speed lately and is coming around better with each passing race....will give a much account of himself tonite......

#9 - Sand Gogh...ran a whiz-bang race last week, trouble is for me, HIS Pace-Ratings suggest he will BOUNCE tonite...I predict he will he will either break stride, or injure his muscles further in this race tonite, as he does not have the true back class to run as fast as he did last week, as prior to that race he was not running that fast pace-wise......have a nice vacatioin Sand.......:rolleyes:

#4 - Life is a Cabaret...has some back class, and is coming back after a brief vacation, and in his last race ran a pretting strong even type race with a decent last 1/4.....I don't think he has a shot to win.......but he qualifies for the conditions, pretty much........
====================================

These are not my selections.....they are just the facts and the horses pertaining to this new WRINKLE.........

I do have my pick/opinion, he will sit in the 2-hole and win.... but, I will keep it to myself, as Freddy has already called DIBS on this race first......:lol:

G.L.......

best,

It's simple, the Meadowlands needs horses! as you can see, they have nothing but 6 horse fields for the first half of the card tonight. they changed conditions last year, when they were letting 10,000 claimers race there for awhile.

PS - I like Sand Gogh tonight, and have him as one of my selections! At least with the price comparison between him and #1, I'm going to say he doesnt BOUNCE (although there is a chance he might race poorly) LOL

[LottaKash]

It's simple, the Meadowlands needs horses! as you can see, they have nothing but 6 horse fields for the first half of the card tonight. they changed conditions last year, when they were letting 10,000 claimers race there for awhile.

PS - I like Sand Gogh tonight, and have him as one of my selections! At least with the price comparison between him and #1, I'm going to say he doesnt BOUNCE (although there is a chance he might race poorly) LOL

Hey Freddy, yeah that Sunday's Mother's Day card, put everything out of whack, at least for the time being...

On a lighter side, (I know how you feel about saying the B-word), that last line for Sand Gogh is a super good looking line, so, wouldn't you say, if he races poorly, it would be because of the B-, don't you think ?...If not, what would you attribute it to......?...other than sore muscles....

I think a lot handicappers, after many years of racing, start to look at the horses as machine like creatures....I admit this was the case for me for many years.....But, somewhere, I came to the realization that the horses are just flesh and blood ATHLETES, and understanding the "B" is key to knowing how fast and FIT your horse may be tonite.....it deifinitely explains many mysteries that I have had over the years........After all, the muscles of the horse react in the same way as our own, and being alert to the things that cause this, in the case of the horse, will only lead to further enlightenment.......

best,

[freddyblu22]

Hey Freddy, yeah that Sunday's Mother's Day card, put everything out of whack, at least for the time being...

On a lighter side, (I know how you feel about saying the B-word), that last line for Sand Gogh is a super good looking line, so, wouldn't you say, if he races poorly, it would be because of the B-, don't you think ?...If not, what would you attribute it to......?...other than sore muscles....

I think a lot handicappers, after many years of racing, start to look at the horses as machine like creatures....I admit this was the case for me for many years.....But, somewhere, I came to the realization that the horses are just flesh and blood ATHLETES, and understanding the "B" is key to knowing how fast and FIT your horse may be tonite.....it deifinitely explains many mysteries that I have had over the years........After all, the muscles of the horse react in the same way as our own, and being alert to the things that cause this, in the case of the horse, will only lead to further enlightenment.......

best,

again, good points you make.. i too, think one of the keys to success is viewing the animals as athletes, and not machines.. but whereas it seems you attribute a "bouncy" type effort to sore muscles, it could be that, or maybe another 100 different things.. who knows for sure? i know this isnt a scientific thing to say, but sometimes horses "just dont feel like racing".. one week a seemingly fit horse will get a perfect second over trip, and then gap off cover and finish up the track - and the very next week, it might power on by and win by 5 lengths with the same exact trip.. so to re-iterate, while i agree with you that sore muscles could be one explanation, there are still many many other reasons out there too..

as for sand gogh tonight, by no means is he a lock. in fact, if his odds are below a certain point, i wont even bet him.. im just saying that his last race stands out, and if he comes back to that, he wins tonight. (i've seen the #1 too many times to be suckered into him, just based on an impressive Q)..

[LottaKash]

Hey Freddy, I wanted to say more about this, but my grand-daughter wanted me to watch some cartoons with her and I obliged her........:jump:

The T-bred guys have the best of it (Pace-figs-ratings) with all their fancy software, especially the thoro-graph, and figs-sheets players.....In Harness, ideally I would like to see the whole history (without paying an enormous sum) of each horse, in regards to his Pace/Speed numbers, as this would and should reveal what happens to a horse when he reaches his limits of ability vs. his current numbers..........I'm finding in recent times, that when horses run to a particular number that shows he has reached that peak of ability, and when this number goes higher and more strenuous, certain things will take place after that new Top......The Bounce....Bounces come bundled with their own ratings....such as mini-bounces (causing a horse to go off a bit, for a race or two and then rebound)...Then there is the more moderate - Bounce,( that will cause the horse to break stride in his next race, ship to another track or scratch out, or changes in class, in their next race),,And the worst of all Bounces, the major-Bounce, (where a horse will not recover very quickly at all, and will go for a vacation to recuperate, sometimes this takes months to get over)........

Day by day, my new Pace-Ratings are beginning to reveal this to me, more and more.......stay tuned.........

When one can correctly interpret soreness and lameness,,..Well, anything is possible, as it sheds new light on your handicapping, and it will put you ahead of where your have been..........:cool:

I have said all of this, because of your horse Sand Gogh....As this point in time, from what I have learned so far, using my new Pace-ratings..all the classic signs of a bounce are in place........Now, I am by no means any expert at any of this new stuff, as there are exceptions to all this, and I just haven't been using them this way for long enough to know all, but, unless I missed my guess in here, I will stand on my assumption (for now) of a bounce for Sand Gogh.....but, that sure is a pretty looking line and speed rating.....we'll see.........:D

humbly,

[Ray2000]

Here's another reason why some horses "bounce"

http://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/rulings/pdf/rulings-20080509.pdf

[LottaKash]

Thanks Ray.....too funny..........

Did you notice, 120 days suspension, for doping a horse....AND 365 days probationary period for CUSSIN'........:lol:

btw, Ray, where are your picks today...?

best,

[Ray2000]

I got a chuckle out of that too. I'll bet he's already a repeat offender.:lol:

Just not enough time to do it right today, Johnny
but I like Mandala Quest 4/1 & Jaccka Seelster N 15/1 in the exacta box BigM 7 and
5-2-3 Beach Bonnet 12/1 in Flamboro 3 tonight.

Good luck

[LottaKash]

again, good points you make.. i too, think one of the keys to success is viewing the animals as athletes, and not machines.. but whereas it seems you attribute a "bouncy" type effort to sore muscles, it could be that, or maybe another 100 different things.. who knows for sure? i know this isnt a scientific thing to say, but sometimes horses "just dont feel like racing".. one week a seemingly fit horse will get a perfect second over trip, and then gap off cover and finish up the track - and the very next week, it might power on by and win by 5 lengths with the same exact trip.. so to re-iterate, while i agree with you that sore muscles could be one explanation, there are still many many other reasons out there too..

as for sand gogh tonight, by no means is he a lock. in fact, if his odds are below a certain point, i wont even bet him.. im just saying that his last race stands out, and if he comes back to that, he wins tonight. (i've seen the #1 too many times to be suckered into him, just based on an impressive Q)..

Hey Freddy, I didn't mean to imply that sore muscles are the only extent that horses race great or poorly from race to race......What I was trying to convey is that by using a pace rating for each horse, in each of their last 3 or 4 starts, you will begin to get a picture of how the horse may be feelling and what the Trainer's Intentions on Race Day may be......some of the better trainers' have a way of knowing how well or poor their guy is, and will have their horse raced and classified race acccordingly.....All I'm trying to do, by using my new pace-ratings, is to find an additonal (without too much work) way, of keying on a horse's previous pace's, to better assess his realistic chances of winning tonite.....As stated a while ago, without keeping written statistics, I am on the leading edge of modelling of what I have learned previously, and I am trying to apply it to my handicapping........There are already, so many available variables to consider, and this is just another that may lend some credence as to why horses win and lose.........

No Magic Bullets, and I know this.......What I do know, is that any successful handicapper, that I know of, (and I have known a few personally), has HAD to MASTER the art of Pace Figures.......And I believe that if one is successful without this mastery, then when adding and using such, will be, "The Sky is the Limit", for him..........The people. I have known, and all the successful Authors I have read, have this skill in spades....They are my heroes......They have done the work and now they are smiling.......

Horses talk thru their Pace-ratings, and sore muscles, as with all athletes, have very much to do with it.....and it reflects in their next races, by how well they raced and what their pace-rating was in relationship to the competition.....they talk, and NOW, I am learning to listen.......:jump:

best,

[freddyblu22]

Hey Freddy, I didn't mean to imply that sore muscles are the only extent that horses race great or poorly from race to race......What I was trying to convey is that by using a pace rating for each horse, in each of their last 3 or 4 starts, you will begin to get a picture of how the horse may be feelling and what the Trainer's Intentions on Race Day may be......some of the better trainers' have a way of knowing how well or poor their guy is, and will have their horse raced and classified race acccordingly.....All I'm trying to do, by using my new pace-ratings, is to find an additonal (without too much work) way, of keying on a horse's previous pace's, to better assess his realistic chances of winning tonite.....As stated a while ago, without keeping written statistics, I am on the leading edge of modelling of what I have learned previously, and I am trying to apply it to my handicapping........There are already, so many available variables to consider, and this is just another that may lend some credence as to why horses win and lose.........

No Magic Bullets, and I know this.......What I do know, is that any successful handicapper, that I know of, (and I have known a few personally), has HAD to MASTER the art of Pace Figures.......And I believe that if one is successful without this mastery, then when adding and using such, will be, "The Sky is the Limit", for him..........The people. I have known, and all the successful Authors I have read, have this skill in spades....They are my heroes......They have done the work and now they are smiling.......

Horses talk thru their Pace-ratings, and sore muscles, as with all athletes, have very much to do with it.....and it reflects in their next races, by how well they raced and what their pace-rating was in relationship to the competition.....they talk, and NOW, I am learning to listen.......:jump:

best,

lottakash, i have WAY too many thoughts circulating through my head right now, to even respond back.. but after reading your post, and re-reading some of your older ones, i get the impression you must be a thoroughbred guy too.... :D

in my opinion, the two sports are 180 degrees from each other when it comes to handicapping - ill leave it at that for now...

best of luck with whatever you play tonight

[mrroyboy]

I think Lotta is basically right. When a horse sets a new top figure for speed pace etc he will usually bounce next race. This happens in Harness and Thorobreds. In Harness racing horses are more durable but when pushed further then ever they will be sore. Maybe the driver thinks they will be sore. In any event a sub par race will usually follow.

[headhawg]

in my opinion, the two sports are 180 degrees from each other when it comes to handicapping - ill leave it at that for now...I think that both of you are 1/2 right. My analysis would feel incomplete if I did not do some kind of pace analysis. The trouble is (as in t-breds as well) accurately predicting the pace scenario is many times an exercise in futility. Still, I have to make the attempt to determine a lone speed or a hot pace scenario.

On the other hand, only looking at pace also leaves me with an incomplete feeling. There are post position, driver/trainer, and track bias issues that may be equally important, if not more so in certain races.

Ok, call me eclectic. Then again, I'm fairly new to s-breds and it was natural for me to handicap in a fashion similar to t-breds.

[LottaKash]

I think some of you guys, have got me pegged the wrong way.....Handicapping is looking at all the variables.....

What I am trying to say is, that recently I have put into use, a methodology for putting into use, some pace-ratings that I have working on for some time.......Garnering effective pace ratings without the aid of a computer is not for me......I have a way of arriving at some pace numbers, that can be had simply by arranging the race fractions in a certain way and it can be done without pencil and paper and without a computer, just by glancing at what is in the program, at face value......All I have done is incorporated them into my usual handicapping bag of tricks.......and is simple, quick and very easy to do......(but it wasn't always ez)

What this has done is elevated my horse - picking to a higher level, that's all......What I have learned lately, is that some horses show form reversals and dramatic form increases, and quite simply, these numbers help me greatly, in answering some of the questions that I have harbored all these years.......It all about how a horse raced in his fractions in his last few races, and how he may have come out of that race, physically.....

Have you ever done your homework, confident in your analysis, and then some horse pops up and beats you, and you hurry back to your program to see what you may have missed, as you hadn't considered him at all..or your goody goody top horse, in his race tonite , poops out and runs like shit, and you haven;t got a clue why this happened.....Well my pace-ratings, help me understand what may have occured, and will aid my handicapping in future, and I will have a more accurate picture, as to what occured last week....... I can explain what happens each night way better than I ever could, using my past pace-ratings......that's all.....

I do the pace-ratings and the horse by horse analysis of form factors and looking at all the supporting information....and then I let the Drivers do all the work........I do not project pace, I let the Post-Positions decide that......

Also, for me, I have bet on a T-bred race or two, but I never got into it big time.....I mean for awhile I was just as:jump: good at both, but, the consistency and constants of distance and drivers and post positons, were always the lure for me......People are always knocking harness-racing for the scandals that emerge from time to time, but for me, I think the opposite may be true....It is so ez to stillf a t-bred and get away with it, compared to harness.........I just like that fancy software the t-bred guys have, that is why I mention it from time to time....:jump: