As usual - Every time I test a System for the first time - IT WINS !

[BeatTheChalk]

Yup. My friend the witch doctor he told me what to do he told me
ohhh eee ohhh ahh ahhh.. And then he said.....Bet the tote board favorite
to show with a caveat :
Must be 7 horses or more - and each of the horses must have run at least
3 races. So of course I said to myself ..." oh sure that's just great " :bang:
I am too smart to bet a system like that. But I went on home and said..
" Heck I have a zillion results charts ....."
You know what happened don't you :bang: :lol: Need I say more ? I ran
the system for 3 days .. different tracks. Now I am gonna really get serious
and do some testing and .. .... .. .. :jump: :cool:

[misscashalot]

anyone know the avg show price of a fav in races having 7 or more bet entires?

I looked at NYRA fr Jan 1st to current 4up. There were 235 races with 165 have the fav finish in the first 3 spots. If the avg is $3.00 then theres a $25 profit at track odds.

[Tom Barrister]

Over the course of a year, it will have an ROI of about 0.87.

[SMOO]

I wonder if restricting to dirt and one turn races would increase the results.

[witchdoctor]

Yup. My friend the witch doctor he told me what to do he told me
ohhh eee ohhh ahh ahhh.. And then he said.....Bet the tote board favorite
to show with a caveat :



It wasn't me. ;)

[BeatTheChalk]

It wasn't me. ;)

:jump: Ya got me there ! :cool:

[maiom01]

See if your results improve by avoiding horses with layoffs

[Tom Barrister]

Restricting to dirt and one-turn races will lower the ROI to about 0.84 to 0.85.

Restricting to horses based on layoff won't change the ROI, until you get up to about 120-150 days. Horses off that long have lower ROI, but the number of those is relatively small compared to the total.

I've gone through all of these scenarios and hundreds more. Betting tote favorites to show actually has a better ROI than betting the same horses to win. The best I could manage with reasonable filtering that didn't amount to back-fitting was a 0.97 ROI, and that cut the total plays down to about 10% of all favorites. Still, 5,000 plays per year with an ROI of 0.97 might be workable if an offshore (which booked the bets) allowed show wagering and gave rebates on $2.20 and $2.10 payoffs (of which there were more than a few).

For the record, betting the same horses to place produced about the same ROI. Betting the same horses to win produced a significantly lower ROI. While I don't have the data or the inclination to set it all up again, I remember that win bets produced about 0.90 or 0.91, place about 0.96 and show about 0.97, these on the filtered (10% of total favorites) sample. Betting these to place might work better with an offshore, as the $2.20 and $2.10 payouts weren't as common.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Hmm. What about special tracks like MNR where the minimum payoff is $2.20 instead of $2.10 (I suspect it may be better, but still not profitable). (Don't you just love people asking you to do all kinds of work? )

[mannyberrios]

:jump: Very interesting! A .097 ROI. Not bad.

[njcurveball]

I tried to duplicate your success in my database and I would say it is a short term trend, so enjoy it.

Based on field size, the closest was 13 horse fields was an ROI 0.93 to place and 0.94 to show in a 362 race sample.

14 horse fields didn't fair as well with a place ROI of 0.79 and a show ROI of 0.795

For 8 to 12 horse fields, the place roi was around 0.86 and the show ROI a lil higher at 0.875

Not bad as you are beating the track take and there were about 35,000 races in the sample there. Plenty room to "tweak" and show a profit. :ThmbUp:

I know you talked about at least 3 races, but I found Maidens to actually be a lil more profitable when there were first time starters in the field.

Testing just winners, fields of 7 to 10 have a place ROI of 0.85 and a show ROI of 0.87. Fields of 11 to 14 do not fair as well, a place ROI of 0.83 and a show ROI of 0.845

One thing you do need to consider is that testing #1 choices with a database is different than betting them. I would estimate about 10% of races have 2 or 3 horses that flip in the last minute.

Jim