PDA

View Full Version : In Search of Chaos


bigmack
05-13-2008, 07:03 PM
Picking winners is all well and good. Finding races that are rife with multiple contenders, confounding conditions and a general "who knows" can be productive. Going deep in select races has been a real boon to my roi. In fact, in the last several months I've hit more monster tickets than I ever thought possible. Throw ego to the wind and size up potential chaos and root for longies.

I look for "off the turf", sloppy conditions, large fields with vulnerable fav & co-fav amongst other variables.

Any of you hooligans embrace chaos?

Premier Turf Club
05-13-2008, 07:16 PM
I use HTR to look for weak fave races and races with a low Vi (volatility index) which is strongly correlated with longshots.

When there are a couple of chaos races in a PK4 sequence I like to find a single or go two deep in two legs of a PK4 and use many in the other two. Generally if there are 3 or 4 chaos races in the sequence I'll pass because I'd have to spread too thin.

I have a couple of buddies that ran a prop option trading desk where I used to work. They lived for "high vol" markets.

bigmack
05-13-2008, 07:33 PM
When there are a couple of chaos races in a PK4 sequence I like to find a single or go two deep in two legs of a PK4 and use many in the other two. Generally if there are 3 or 4 chaos races in the sequence I'll pass because I'd have to spread too thin.
I agree, Ian. I don't use it horizontally either.

schweitz
05-13-2008, 07:44 PM
[QUOTE

Any of you hooligans embrace chaos?[/QUOTE]

Yes (in pk-3's)---but I may not be a real player.

bigmack
05-13-2008, 07:57 PM
I use HTR to look for weak fave races and races with a low Vi (volatility index) which is strongly correlated with longshots.
Particularly on blades when over 50% of races with a VI<30 & the victors pay $15++

Tom Barrister
05-14-2008, 03:04 AM
Simplistic as it sounds, the general rule is that the more horses in a race, the more chaos there is.

RichieP
05-14-2008, 05:57 AM
Finding chaos is relatively easy. Bet Evd,Hol and Mnr

bigmack
05-14-2008, 10:57 AM
Finding chaos is relatively easy. Bet Evd,Hol and Mnr
http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/59-2.jpg

46zilzal
05-14-2008, 11:19 AM
Woodbine looks good to me

Fingal
05-14-2008, 12:00 PM
Picking winners is all well and good. Finding races that are rife with multiple contenders, confounding conditions and a general "who knows" can be productive. Going deep in select races has been a real boon to my roi. In fact, in the last several months I've hit more monster tickets than I ever thought possible. Throw ego to the wind and size up potential chaos and root for longies.

I look for "off the turf", sloppy conditions, large fields with vulnerable fav & co-fav amongst other variables.

Any of you hooligans embrace chaos?

Prime example for me- The Breeder's Cup. It's not a "regular day", it's not so much as picking a winner, but finding contenders & building a ticket around them-:jump: