Today at Santa Anita (2/20)

[rmania]

The horses identified below represent what I believe to be the top four contenders in each race.
They are listed by post position.
For wagering purposes, I have identified a key horse in each race with an asterisk (*).

Race 1
2 - Brilliant Move (5/1)
5 - Quero Quero (9/5)*
8 - Xocolata (12/1)
9 - Limelighter (8/1)

Race 6
2 - Hello Ruffie (10/1)
6 - Jennas Joy (7/2)
7 - Dance for Fun (12/1)
9 - Lucky in Love (6/1)*

Race 7
2 - Ditch Digger (3/1)*
7 - American Warrior (9/2)
9 - Pacing the Cage (4/1)
10- Mr Toad (10/1)

[rrbauer]

I'll just post a couple opinions under this thread.

In R1 I like Quero Quero but I'm thinking that she and Devious Impact could get locked up in a pace duel that will help neither one. I know that Lafitt is getting off the #2 Brilliant Move but that has to do with being Ronnie Mac's main man (#4) more than anything. The move that #2 Brilliant Move made thru the turn and into the stretch in her last makes me think this could set up for her late charge. The final time in that one, mile in 1:34.4 is a damn good time for maidens.

I'll try Brilliant Move straight and over the other two.

Result:

Lafitt went. P Val didn't. Julie took the #2 so far back that there was no chance (pedestrian fractions [22+ and 44+] for this venue). #4 held off the #5 in a headbob. She was 9/2 last I saw. #2 ran 4th.

[rrbauer]

R2

Can't take odds on in here. I'll dutch the #1 and #3 and try to beat the #2.

Result:

The #2 (3/5 4-path far turn) got up late to beat the Baffert stretchout #5. The #3 got a perfect trip but couldn't hold them in the stretch. #1 had a perfect ground-saving trip but had no punch in the lane.

[rrbauer]

My only other play today is the P4 starting in R5.

R5
The only one that I don't like is T. H. Lear, #4. With the rails out 30 feet it makes the turns tight and makes a good trip important. If T. H. Lear falters early, then Weed Runner, #1 is in a great spot. Otherwise, the late moves that #2, Requette, and #5, Champion Lodge (don't like the trainer), made in their last, stamps them as fit and ready. #3, Hataab looks to be improving for Drysdale and coming back to his European form. #6, Sumitas has been crying for more distance with easier and that's what today is all about.

R6
Miss New York, #5 is a deserving fav and Cerin is good at keeping them sharp once they get their edge. #1, Cantaloupe takes off the hood and has shown a fondness for this track. She's my upsetter. Both #8, Sugar Free, and #9, Lucky In Love should run well. If it were a flat 6f, I would like the #9 better. Still, she could get the lead and it's her 2nd off a layoff.

R7
Another "down the hill" venue. #3, Ditch Digger has a nice development line and wins races. His turf race on this course was fine. #8, Mccordnskuba, has never won over this layout but he fits here on ability. #9, Pacing The Cage, has a balanced attack and has been competitve on turf with better. I'm taking some risk by leaving out the #7, American Warrior, and #2, El Curioso but their win spirit at this level doesn't inspire me.

R8
It looks like the #2, HIgh Counselor; the #7, Sir Tificate; and the #8, Spoonman, will mix it up early. The #2, backed out last time before they hit the turn and will see heat again today. Lafitt, who rides a lot for Gallagher, jumps off. That leaves the #7 and the #8 to survive the pace duel with #1, Ole Blue Boy, coming along late. From the inside he should get a great trip and the drop from MSW makes these the easiest he's seen.

So, going back to R5, my prime P4 play features the #1 in R6 (ML 12-1). (All $1 tickets)

1/2/3/5/6--1--3/8/9--1/7/8 $45

My backup plays:
1--5--3/8/9--1/7/8 $9
3/6--5/8/9--3--1/7/8 $18
2/5--8/9--3/9--1/7/8 $24

$96 total.....let's get 'em home!

[rrbauer]

P4 is dead after two legs.

In R5, #2 (2-1 fav) came along late for the win. Frankel's other one, #6 got 2nd. T.H. Lear held on for 3rd.

In R6, my longshot, #1 Cantaloupe was history before they hit the turn....Trevor: "Something amiss with her today". Meanwhile, #5, Miss New York and #9, Lucky In Love ding-donged to the 1/8th pole and then #5 (2-1 another fav) came away for the win.

I started a $3 and $4 P3's using the 5 with 8 with 1,7,8 mix since the two favs knocked me out of the P4 and the #8 in R7 offers the only decent price proposition. I doubt that any of the doubles (with my other contenders) starting in R7 will be worth much, but I'll have a look.

Result R7
Mr Toad took them a long way but got only 2nd. Lafitt came with a big run on #3 to get the money. He was clear at the end. Indiahoma (listed as a scratch on the SA web site when I got the changes at Noon!) was 3rd and #2 El Curioso 4th. Mccordnskuba my P3 hopeful fell coming off the hill..my P3's are dead--hope the horse is OK. I launched some doubles from #3 to my three contenders in R8. They were all coming back in the mid-30's when I looked at 2MTP. So far the P4 is fav, fav, fav.

[rrbauer]

R8
Well I should've just hung out and waited for the late double!

The #5, Antique popped the gate showing more speed than he ever hinted and took them a long way. #7 Sir Tificate pressed outside and #8 Spoonman tracked a couple back. #7 and #8 came out on the turn to challenge with #1 Ole Blue Boy (perfect trip) coming along to join the fray. #8 got up late (Pincay's 4th on the day) with #1 grabbing 2nd and #7 getting 3rd. #5 lasted for 4th. Spoonman had a pretty wide trip, but that was the case last time too, and I liked that Lafitt stayed with the low-profile trainer.

Anyway, the DD came back $36 and change and I had a 10-spot on it, so that gets me out from all the P4 and P3 and losing doubles malarky. Damn P4 paid $207 for a buck which is better than I expected. Outsmarted myself again!

Later...

[CapperLou]

Hi Cappers:

I made three wagers today at SA--and a red hot Pincay got me some money.
I loved Devious Impact in the 1st--she was facing much weaker field than in past and the price was sure right!!

Also liked Pacing The Cage in the 6th and thought she would be near the lead and get lead and stay there with about and 1/8 to go, but she dissapointed at another decent price.

I thought the 8th race set up well for Spoonman and he seemed to be facing a weak field. Pincay gave him an incredible ride and he got it done. He was riding like he was in his 30's today--and what a good price 8.20 to Win.

I have been getting it done at SA the last few weeks, whereas at Gulfstream here at home--it's been so bad--I've stopped playing here altogether for awhile---go figure--that's horseracing!!

All the best,

CapperLou

P.S. If you are not playing SA--right now I think it is holding up better than all the other main venues--JMHO!!