Maiden v Winners?

[CBedo]

In the tenth race at Hol today (the Grade III Railbird Stakes at 7f for three year old fillies), Million Dollar Run, who had run second in her only race ever, a maiden special weight at SA, suprised most at 14.70 to 1, taking it down by over 2 lengths.

I was just wondering if anyone had any statistics, nationally or regionally, on what happens when, without having won anything yet, maidens step up and face winners in allowances or stakes races? I've seen some fillies and colts try stakes their first time out, so as a subset, I'm wondering about how non-winners do against the winners after they have already failed at least once at the maiden level? Any thoughts in general?

Thanks.

[misscashalot]

[QUOTE=CBedo]In the tenth race at Hol today (the Grade III Railbird Stakes at 7f for three year old fillies), Million Dollar Run, who had run second in her only race ever, a maiden special weight at SA, suprised most at 14.70 to 1, taking it down by over 2 lengths.

I was just wondering if anyone had any statistics, nationally or regionally, on what happens when, without having won anything yet, maidens step up and face winners in allowances or stakes races? I've seen some fillies and colts try stakes their first time out, so as a subset, I'm wondering about how non-winners do against the winners after they have already failed at least once at the maiden level? Any thoughts in general?

Thanks.[/QUO

On the NYRA circuit for the past 20 yrs there have been about 20 Maidens stepping into allow and even stakes class to win. The lastest non-previous-winner winning against winners was at Saratoga on Aug 31, 2007 when Nownownow broke her maiden in stakes company at $6.30-1. There have been others who won at maiden company but had been dq'd and came right back successfully against allowance company, and in 1992 there was a firster who bested allowance company. :jump:

[JustRalph]

can you imagine how nice that is going to look on the resume down the road.

"Broke Her Maiden in Grade III Stakes at Hollywood Park"

The value of that Filly just went sky high.............

[Fastracehorse]

In the tenth race at Hol today (the Grade III Railbird Stakes at 7f for three year old fillies), Million Dollar Run, who had run second in her only race ever, a maiden special weight at SA, suprised most at 14.70 to 1, taking it down by over 2 lengths.

I was just wondering if anyone had any statistics, nationally or regionally, on what happens when, without having won anything yet, maidens step up and face winners in allowances or stakes races? I've seen some fillies and colts try stakes their first time out, so as a subset, I'm wondering about how non-winners do against the winners after they have already failed at least once at the maiden level? Any thoughts in general?

Thanks.

I like Maidens that were entered in a stake their first out and then come back to Maidens.

My favorite Maiden angle in Cali is Maidens stepping up from claiming to Specials.

fffastt

[cj's dad]

My favorite Maiden angle in Cali is Maidens stepping up from claiming to Specials.

fffastt

Do you think that is because the connections have found a previously undiscovered problem health wise and have corrected same and now are afraid of losing their colt/filly?

[Fastracehorse]

Do you think that is because the connections have found a previously undiscovered problem health wise and have corrected same and now are afraid of losing their colt/filly?

I think it is very wise of U to think in terms of horse health. There are alot of unexpected turn-arounds in horse form due to improved equine health. We can see hints sometimes in works, pre-race warm-ups, and other trainer intent moves.

About the Maiden runner stepping up: I think U touched on one likely possibility. The other is that they have a good Maiden and want a price. They aren't afraid to lose it because the selling price is much higher than the purchase price.

fffastt

[plainolebill]

Everest Stable gets a lot of price horses across. I don't know for sure but I would guess that they are a betting outfit.

[DrugS]

Sweet Catomine broke her maiden in a Grade 1 Stake at Del Mar.

[classhandicapper]

It really depends on the age and experience level of the horses.

The typical stake for 2YOs in June or July is basically a NW1 ALW race. Yet some of the maidens making their debuts in that same time frame are future Grade 1 prospects. So it's not much of a stretch for a top maiden prospect to find a stake weak enough to win in at first asking (even though it's not that common).

As time passes and the horses mature and get more seasoned, the gap grows larger because the quality of the stakes are much higher. At a certain point it's almost impossible.